Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 290916
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
216 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BECOME DRIER.
HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LATEST RUN...ADVERTISING A CONTINUED
PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES EAST THROUGH THE
STATE. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE PRESENT BUT MORE
LIMITED. THE BEST INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER STORMS TODAY WILL BE
ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA AS WELL AS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR IN
CENTRAL NEVADA. FOR SATURDAY...AS THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE
CWFA...CONVECTION WILL BE SUBDUED UP NORTH FOR THE MOST PART AND
THE CONCENTRATION WILL BE ON WHITE PINE AND NORTHERN NYE COUNTIES.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS PROPOSING SOME HIGH TEMPERATURES TOUCHING 90
DEGREES ON SATURDAY. WILL KEEP NUMBERS A LITTLE BELOW THAT MARK
FOR SATURDAY FIGURING ADDITIONAL DRYING IS NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...DIVERGING ON A SOLUTION BY WED-THU TIME FRAME.

ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. ANY STORMS/SHOWERS WILL ONLY
PRODUCE MINIMAL RAIN...AS LOWER LEVELS WILL BE QUITE DRY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...EACH AFTERNOON WILL SEE ISOLATED/CHANCE
THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS....WHICH WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO
NORTHERN NEVADA. MEANWHILE IN CENTRAL NEVADA...BREEZY W/SW WINDS
WILL KEEP THINGS QUITE DRY. MOST MODELS SHOW THE BROAD TROUGH
DIGGING AND MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. HOWEVER MODELS
DISAGREE ON STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THIS TROUGH. REGARDLESS OF
SOLUTION...BOTH GFS/EURO HAVE PRECIP OVER NEVADA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR IS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. KELY WILL SEE VCTS...WITH A LESS THAN 20% OF TS AT THE
AIRPORT. ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN KELY DUE TO TS.
ELSEWHERE...ONLY CUMULUS BUILDUP ON MTNS..WITH NO THREAT OF TS/VCTS.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/94/94



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