Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 212246
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
346 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
AND EASTERN NEVADA THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. COOLER ON
SATURDAY WITH STORM ACTIVITY CONFINED TO EXTREME EASTERN NEVADA.
STORM-FREE ON SUNDAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEVADA AGAIN ON
MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. CUMULUS CLOUDS
POPPING UP ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN LIMITED TO NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY WHICH IS WHERE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED FOR
THE REST OF THE EVENING. MAY HOWEVER SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
SPREADING INTO EASTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY AS WELL AS NORTHERN LANDER
EUREKA AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES. TROUGH DROPPING INTO NEVADA
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS EXPAND FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH. THE
BULK OF TOMORROWS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF ELKO COUNTY WHERE LI/S OF -2 AND CAPE OF 100J/KG SET UP.
WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY FRIDAY AS A 75KT JET ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING TROUGH MOVES OVER NEVADA. TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH DECREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...GENERALLY CONFINED TO
EASTERN ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES. BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL BE OVER NORTHEASTERN
ELKO COUNTY HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL UNTIED STATES.
A DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ON TAP...WITH A QUIET DAY
FOR NORTHERN NEVADA WEATHERWISE ON SUNDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE
ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH READINGS RANGING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S. BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY...BUT HAVE BROUGHT IN ISOLATED
POPS IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL READINGS. THE REST OF THE PERIOD...FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...KEPT THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY
DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL STICK AROUND NORTHERN NEVADA
FRIDAY...WITH VCTS FORECAST FOR KELY AND KEKO IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN 469 AND 470...WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZED HAIL...WETTING RAINS...AND
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. AREAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BOTH THE WEST AND SOUTH...WITH MOST ACTIVITY
ACROSS ZONES 469 AND 470...INCLUDING SOUTHERN AREAS. LATEST MODEL
RUNS HINT AT SHOWER AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDING
AS FAR WEST AS ZONE 467 FRIDAY. WINDS BECOME GUSTY ON FRIDAY AS A
TROUGH DROPS INTO NEVADA. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO TREND WARMER SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE STORM FREE...HOWEVER EASTERN NEVADA MAY SEE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

96/86/86/96





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