Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 301033
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
333 AM PDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS ALMOST EVERY DAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA AS
THE BUSY WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
CENTER OF THE MEAN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION MOVED FROM NEAR THE
PERSHING/LANDER COUNTY BORDER TO NEAR TONOPAH OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS A DISINTEGRATING AREA OF PRECIPITATION
MOVING PARALLEL TO BUT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN PERSHING AND
LANDER COUNTIES APPARENTLY JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE.
THERE HAVE BEEN EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN HISTORICALLY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS AREA OF SHOWERS...MOVING WEST SOUTH WEST. THE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD SYNCHRONIZATION THIS MORNING. A TROUGH IS LIKELY TO HANG
AROUND OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH MONDAY.

TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHERN NYE COUNTY. THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY END UP NEAR TONOPAH
WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT FROM NOW THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL TRAIL THE
CENTER OF THE LOW THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA.
IT IS COLD ENOUGH THAT SNOW COULD MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS COULD VERY WELL TURN OUT TO BE
A DRY PERIOD FOR NORTHERN NEVADA. HOWEVER A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE
HOVERING OVER THE LKN CWFA. AT THIS JUNCTURE...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 BUT THE PATTERN IS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING AND REVOLVING INSIDE THE
MEAN TROUGH...ENOUGH TO SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES. THUS...CANNOT COMPLETELY DRY THINGS OUT. SNOW LEVELS ARE
CURRENTLY MODELED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO FALL IN
THE VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AMPLIFIED PATTERN
COVERS THE WRN CONUS WITH A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES. ON MONDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY... NRN/CENTRAL NEVADA WILL BE GENERALLY DRY. ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN RANGES LIKE JARBIDGE WILDERNESS...RUBIES AND THE SNAKE
RANGE.

WITH THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...STRONGER
GRADIENT SSW FLOW SPREADS OVER NEVADA. MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED
INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH THE COLDER
AIR ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH
AND ABOVE 8000 FEET. TEMPS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE LOWERED BY ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES BY FRIDAY. THERE
IS MODEL SPREAD ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION BY
NEXT FRIDAY...BUT THERE IS A GOOD PROBABILITY THIS WILL EVOLVE
INTO ANOTHER WET WEATHER MAKER FOR THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCALIZED IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA...OR ALONG THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. AFTER
18Z...AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
INCREASING... THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 02Z THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN MVFR CIGS AT TIMES...WITH
HEAVIEST SHOWERS REDUCING VIS TO 3SM.  MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE
OBSCURED AT TIMES FROM PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HIGH STREAM FLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS AND MAYBE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND RAINFALL INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE WILL BE REDUCED...THERE MAY BE SOME RISE DUE TO THE
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MELT OFF OF MID-LEVEL SNOWPACK. SOME
SMALLER CREEKS RUNNING OFF THE MOUNTAINS MAY EXCEED BANKFULL.
LAMOILLE CREEK...MARTIN CREEK...SALMON FALLS CREEK...AND THE
BRUNEAU RIVER ARE FOUR SITES THAT BEAR WATCHING AS THEY RESPOND
MORE RAPIDLY TO EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAINFALL AND HIGH FLOWS IN
SMALL STREAMS MAY LEAD TO SOGGY OR ERODED ROADWAYS.

THE HUMBOLDT RIVER FROM BATTLE MOUNTAIN TO WINNEMUCCA WILL ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SIGNIFICANT RISE OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO DUE TO THE
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM STREAMS. HOWEVER NO FLOODING IS FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE
COUNTY-NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY.

&&

$$

92/88/88



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