Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 251638
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
938 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC TODAY WILL
BRING STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST.
SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL BELOW 7000 FEET IN NORTHERN NEVADA BY SUNDAY. MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR THREE MAY OCCUR IN THE HIGHER HILLS
AND MOUNTAINS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-80. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...GUSTY SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE
STARTED EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED AT KELY AND KEKO. ADJUSTED TAFS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND ALSO INCREASED SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUST
POTENTIAL. SOME GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 35 TO 45 KT RANGE AT BOTH
SITES...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BLDU WILL ALSO BE COMMON
FOR KEKO THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND PERHAPS INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 924 AM /

SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC TODAY WILL
BRING STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST.
SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL BELOW 7000 FEET IN NORTHERN NEVADA BY SUNDAY. MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR THREE MAY OCCUR IN THE HIGHER HILLS
AND MOUNTAINS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-80. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
MONDAY.

UPDATE...INVERSION HAS MIXED OUT DRAMATICALLY AT FROM ELKO TO
ELY, WITH WINDS ALREADY GUSTING AROUND 40 MPH. UPDATED TO INCREASE
WIND GRIDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, AS FEEL MOS GUIDANCE IS PLAYING
CATCHUP. AS SUCH, EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ELKO
COUNTY THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ALREADY
OBSERVED AT ELKO, WITH THE AIRPORT REPORTING REDUCED VISIBILITY.
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AS
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

TURNER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 247 AM /

SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC TODAY WILL
BRING STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST.
SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL BELOW 7000 FEET IN NORTHERN NEVADA BY SUNDAY. MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR THREE MAY OCCUR IN THE HIGHER HILLS
AND MOUNTAINS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-80. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
MONDAY.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. FAIRLY POTENT STORM SYSTEM
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE WEST
COAST TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS STORM...STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP. INHERITED A WIND ADVISORY...AND TOYED WITH THE IDEA
OF EXPANDING IT...BUT THE COMBINATION OF WEAKER WINDS ALOFT AND
MORE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MADE ME HESITANT TO EXPAND IT INTO ELKO
COUNTY. THAT SAID...BRIEF GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE NOT IMPOSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WHEN THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH IN
CASE A LATE EXPANSION BECOMES WARRANTED. WITH THE WINDS AND THE
RECENT DRY WEATHER...BLOWING DUST APPEARS LIKELY. HIGH CLOUDS MAY
LIMIT TEMPS TODAY BUT OVERALL IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM LATE
OCTOBER DAY...PROBABLY THE LAST WARM OCTOBER DAY THIS YEAR.

COLD FRONT CLEARS MOST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND IT. WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY ALOFT WILL PUSH
NORTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...SOME
FORCING WILL ENTER NORTHERN NEVADA...AND INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME
HEATING ON SUNDAY WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE. THUS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO
BECOME COMMON ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA BY SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THE EVENING.
MOST SHOWERS LOOK TO STAY CLOSER TO THE PATH OF THE VORT MAX WHICH
RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF I-80...BUT WITH SNOW LEVELS LIKELY
TO LOWER BELOW 7000 AND POSSIBLY BELOW 6000 FEET...SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL BE 20-25 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY.

TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND ANY SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH. CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING TO BRING
TEMPS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S.

WARM ADVECTION MONDAY MAY BRING CLOUDS BACK INTO THE REGION AS
HEIGHTS RISE...BUT THINK IT SHOULD REGARDLESS BE A DRY DAY. TEMPS
WILL STAY ON THE COOL SIDE HOWEVER. RCM

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NO SERIOUS CHANGES TO
PREVIOUS LONG RANGE FORECAST. IDEA OF TROUGH EXITING THE
REGION...FOLLOWED BY FLAT SHORT WAVE RIDGE HOLDS. AT THE END OF
THE LONG TERM...ANOTHER OFFSHORE TROUGH SHOWS UP ON THE HORIZON.
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TRAVERSE THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IN THE FLAT
RIDGE...PRODUCING VERY LOW POPS. WARMING TREND MEANS THAT ANY
SHOWER THAT DO FALL...AND THEY WILL LARGELY BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80...WILL BE RAIN. WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

AVIATION...VFR AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISSUE WILL BE
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH SUNSET. THEN SLOWLY
DROPPING. AFTERNOON GUSTS WILL REACH NEAR 30 KNOTS AT KWMC AND
KEKO...AND NEAR 40 KNOTS AT KELY AND KTPH.

FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. WARNING CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO HUMIDITY
REMAINING ABOVE 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER...ANY FIRE STARTS COULD STILL
SPREAD QUICKLY JUST DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS. RCM

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO
COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY...
NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN
EUREKA COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

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