Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 022100
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ROAM
NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, AS CIRRUS CANOPY
HAS SLOWED HEATING. PARTIAL CLEARING JUST NOW ALLOWING CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES TO BE REACHED, AND TOWERING CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING
ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA. BEST PW, CAPE AND LIFTED INDEX ARE FOCUSED
MAINLY ACROSS WFO RENO`S CWA, AND EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO
FAVOR THE WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING, AS 18Z NAM SUGGESTS.
VORT MAX OR SHORTWAVE OVER THE SW ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, AGAIN ASSUMING HEATING IS
SUFFICIENT THROUGH THE THICK MID/HIGH CLOUDS. STRONG MONSOON PUSH
EXPECTED ACROSS NEVADA TONIGHT, WITH PW NEAR ONE INCH ACROSS MOST
AREAS BY SUNRISE, WITH MORNING DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S. VERY
MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT, WITH MANY VALLEYS
REMAINING NEAR 60 DEGREES, ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SCATTERED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS DISTURBANCE RIDES NORTH AND INTERACTS WITH A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS.

MONDAY...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP, WITH NAM MODEL FOCUSING THESE ALONG AN
AUSTIN-EUREKA-CHERRY CREEK LINE. AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
80S. SW BREEZES AT 10-20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...WARMER. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES BUILD OVER NEVADA, IN
RESPONSE TO WEAK CLOSED LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S RETURNING. NAM MAINTAINS
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF ELKO COUNTY, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ON THE RUBY,
INDEPENDENCE, AND JARBIDGE MOUNTAINS.  TURNER



.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM...SOME ISSUES BETWEEN EC AND
GFS ON AMPLITUDE AND MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW/TROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE INSTABILITY
AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND
NORTHWARD. LI`S WILL BE NEAR -2 AND CAPE NEAR 500 J/KG ALONG WITH
JET SUPPORT WITH 250MB JET MAX OF 80 KNOTS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG BUT WITH LIMITED CAPE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.

THURSDAY...DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER AS RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ON FRIDAY MODELS BRING A 500MB LOW NEAR SAN
FRANCISCO...HOWEVER THE GFS HAS BEEN DEEPER AND FASTER WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW. DID INCREASE POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT...INSTABILITY AND SOME MOISTURE COMBINE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES...HOWEVER THE SLOWER
EC MODEL IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE AS THE GFS TYPICALLY IS TOO
PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVEMENT OF THESE UPPER LOWS. SATURDAY MODELS BRING
THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...ONCE AGAIN TIMING ISSUES WHICH WILL
MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...SO LOW CONFIDENCE
BUT DID INCREASE POPS AS THE INHERITED FORECAST HAD NO MENTION OF
STORMS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND BELOW NORMAL.
RLC

&&

.AVIATION...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. SHRA BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BUT CLOUD COVER
HAS LIMITED DEVELOPMENT...DO EXPECT TS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON
MAINLY NEAR KTPH AND KELY...VCSH EXPECTED AT KEKO AND KWMC FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. RLC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE PUSHES INTO NEVADA
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBING TO NEAR ONE INCH
UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. CONVECTION MOST NUMEROUS, IN THE
SCATTERED CATEGORY, ACROSS THE SW FWZ, WHERE LAL OF 4 IS EXPECTED.
MOIST DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVERNIGHT, WITH A NOCTURNAL
SHOWER POSSIBLE ABOUT ANYWHERE. ISOLATED, TO AT BEST SCATTERED,
CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP MONDAY, WITH LAL OF 4 EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN HUMBOLDT/ELKO COUNTIES, WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES
EXPECTED ALONG AN AUSTIN-EUREKA-ELY LINE.

TUESDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER, WITH MOST
VALLEYS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, WITH ANY CONVECTION LIMITED TO
PRIMARILY ELKO COUNTY. DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN, WITH MIN RH OF 10-15%
FOR MOST FWZ, AS SW WINDS INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS. DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.  TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/90/90/99



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