Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 172200
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A CLOUDY SKY WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NEVADA INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SEASONABLY COLD. A SERIES OF
WEAK PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY...BUT IMPACTS
TO TRAVEL ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. SNOW WILL CHANGE TO VALLEY
RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS MILDER AIR RETURNS TO NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

THICK MIDLEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH PERSISTENT FOG OR LOW STRATUS HANGING TOUGH OVER
PORTIONS OF NE NEVADA. GIVEN THAT WE ARE EXPERIENCING THE WEAKEST
SUN AND SHORTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR, THE FOG AND STRATUS ARE
STRUGGLING TO BURN OFF. FOG OR LOW CEILINGS MAY RETURN AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING, BUT INCREASING MID CLOUD DECKS SHOULD KEEP
FOG MORE LIMITED TONIGHT. ELKO REGIONAL AIRPORT STILL REPORTING 2
MILES VISIBILITY IN FOG AT 1 PM, SO WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE A
FREEZING FOG MENTION AT LEAST THIS EVENING, AND ADVISE THE NEXT
SHIFT TO MONITOR. THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE IN WESTERN NEVADA LATE TONIGHT. WEAK
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL/NW NEVADA TONIGHT, BUT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
MINIMAL.

THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN,
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR RENO BY SUNSET. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION BY AFTERNOON AS WEAK SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. SHOULD
SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE SW ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT IT WILL BE LIMITED, WITH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO
PREVAIL ACROSS NE NEVADA. NO CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES, WITH
SEASONABLE COLD IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

FRIDAY...RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY DEPARTS EASTERN NEVADA EARLY, ALLOWING
THE NEXT WEAK PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TO ENTER NW NEVADA BY MIDDAY.
LIGHT SNOW WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH LIGHT WET SNOW FOCUSING IN AND NEAR ELKO COUNTY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. INCREASED POP GRIDS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF
ELKO COUNTY. ABOUT 1/2 INCH OF WET SNOW IS EXPECTED ON GRASSY
SURFACES IN AND NEAR ELKO COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AFFECTS ON
TRAVEL WILL BE MINIMAL. ROADS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WET, WITH AREAS
OF REDUCED VISIBILITY. SHORTWAVE EXITS FRIDAY EVENING, WITH A
VERY WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE TRENDING TOWARD DRIER WEATHER FRIDAY
NIGHT. THAT SAID, THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ALREADY APPROACHING
NW NEVADA SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING, SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN AND SNOW INTO MAINLY HUMBOLDT COUNTY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN CONTINUES, SPREADING ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN AVERAGE
ABOUT 1/2-1 INCH, MOSTLY ON GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES. INCREASED
POP GRIDS TO LIKELY FOLLOWING ECMWF`S QPF DEPICTION, BUT AGAIN
TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED WITH MAINLY WET ROADWAYS.

TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH NO CHANGE IN
AIRMASS AND THICK CLOUD COVER KEEPING AFTERNOONS SEASONABLY COLD
AND SUNSHINE AT A PREMIUM.  TURNER


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EC AND GFS BRING A
SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GFS IS
WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE EC. HAVE
LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY AS MODELS PLACE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. EC AND GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP MAINLY ALONG THE ID-NV BORDER AND
OVER THE NE PORTION OF ELKO COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...RIDGE SHOULD HAVE AMPLIFIED
ENOUGH TO PUSH THE SHOWERS INTO UTAH. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
MODELS DISAGREE ON STRENGTH OF A COLD UPPER LOW DIGGING DOWN FROM
THE NORTH...BUT DO INDICATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH
FOR MENTION OF LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.  JH

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA WITH SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER KELY...KEKO AND KTPH TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
FORM IN NE NV AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER WITH CLOUDS INCREASING OVER
THE AREA DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THIS MORNING. JH

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/87/87



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