Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 222309
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
409 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL PROVIDE
A FAST FLOW OF WARM AND DRY AIR OVER THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
NEVADA TONIGHT...BUT DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
NORTHEAST AROUND THE LARGER LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL
COMBINE WITH LINGERING MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA TO
SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SO FAR
TODAY...STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT WITH PEAK HEATING
THEY ARE NOW STARTING TO FIRE...SO HAVE MOSTLY KEPT PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WITH THE SHORTWAVE FORCING...SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL POSSIBLE. ANY STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE MORE MOIST
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH THE DRIER SOUTHEAST STAYING
DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MOISTURE WILL CLEAR OUT OF MOST OF THE CWA BEHIND THAT
SHORTWAVE...SO WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRETTY DRY. TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF
ALLOWING AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE JARBIDGE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY BASED ON HIGHER PW`S ABOVE 1/2 INCH AND SOME
AFTERNOON HEATING...BUT DECIDED TO LEAVE IT DRY FOR NOW. HIGHS
WILL BE HOT...BUT IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN TODAY.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY...WITH COOLER AIR PUSHING IN ON
WESTERLY WINDS AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH SHIFTS EAST.
WITH LOW PW`S CWA-WIDE BY THEN...NO STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AND IN
FACT CLOUDS SHOULD BE HARD TO COME BY. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 80S
IN MANY AREAS...PLEASANT BY LATE JULY STANDARDS. RCM

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.THE MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT AND HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT INSISTING ON AN EXTENDED DRY
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOT ONLY HOLD ITS POSITION NEAR THE
4-CORNERS AREA OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND BUT ALSO
INTENSIFY. BREEZY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FEATURE PASSING TO THE NORTH
OF THE STATE...TEMPORARILY TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCITING A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. DURING THE PROCESS OF
RIDGE INTENSIFICATION...SOME MOISTURE MAY BE INTRODUCED ACROSS
EASTERN NEVADA...ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
NORMAL...AROUND 90 DEGREES...AND THEN SOAR BACK UP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S BY THE WEEKEND AS THE 4-CORNER HIGH INTENSIFIES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN NV THROUGH THIS EVENING
WILL IMPACT KWMC...AND POSSIBLY KEKO. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AT ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST HAS BEGUN PULLING IN DRIER
AIR WITH RH`S FALLING TO CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER A SHORTWAVE PASSES
TONIGHT...THAT DRIER AIR SHOULD INVADE MOST OF THE REST OF THE
STATE. WINDS WILL ALSO BE PRETTY GUSTY ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE AS
THEY WERE TODAY IN CENTRAL NEVADA...SO DECIDED TO HOIST RED FLAGS
FOR MOST NORTHERN ZONES. LEFT OUT 454 GIVEN ITS LOWER VALLEYS AND
PENCHANT FOR LIGHTER GUSTS...AND 467 GIVEN THE STRONG POSSIBILITY
THAT RH`S STAY STILL HIGH THERE. WITH THE FLOW TURNING MORE
WESTERLY AND THE GRADIENT RELAXING A BIT ON THURSDAY...THINK WINDS
WILL DECREASE A BIT...BUT ITS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS WILL
NEED THE WARNING EXTENDED ANOTHER DAY.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP TODAY BUT IS NOW
GETTING UNDERWAY. LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY TONIGHT
AND IS POSSIBLE AS FAR EAST AS NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF
ELKO...EUREKA...LANDER AND NYE COUNTIES. WHITE PINE COUNTY SHOULD
STAY STORM-FREE TONIGHT. WITH THE DRIER AIR INVADING THE WHOLE CWA
TOMORROW...STORMS SHOULD NOT FORM...AND THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
CREEP NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK...INCREASING THE LIGHTNING RISK ONCE
AGAIN. RCM

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR HUMBOLDT
COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND
NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...
SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...
SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE
COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

93/92/92/93




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