Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 191022
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
322 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS HUMBOLDT AND WESTERN ELKO COUNTY
THROUGH MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TODAY BEING THE MOST ACTIVE OF THE
THREE DAYS. A RETURN TO COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY SETS UP
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEVADA AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH MODERATE MOISTURE TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF TODAYS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ON WHITE PINE COUNTY...AS WELL
AS THE EASTERN PORTION OF NORTHERN NYE COUNTY. MAY ALSO SEE A FEW
STRIKES IN SOUTHERN EUREKA AND ELKO COUNTIES. ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF
IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY DRIFT FURTHER
TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ELY. THE SOURCE OF MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY FOR THIS WEEKENDS CONVECTION DRIFTS WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY. HOWEVER THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
MAY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM AROUND EUREKA...UP TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE RUBY MOUNTAINS
ON UP TOWARD THE JARBIDGE WILDERNESS AREA THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
MONDAYS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS MORE UNCERTAINTY THAN WHAT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY AND SUNDAY HOWEVER AS
FEWER MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON MONDAYS INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST MONDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS SPREADING INTO NRN NV. TROUGH PUSHES INTO NRN AND
CNTRL NV ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM. SNOW LEVELS MOSTLY REMAINING ABOVE 6500 FEET. SNOW
LEVELS FALLING TO MOST VALLEY FLOORS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT BULK OF
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED BY THIS TIME SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST NV. NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SHOWERS INTO
NORTHWEST NV FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS CNTRL NV WILL
LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH ABOUT A 25 PCT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AT
THE KELY TERMINAL AND 10 PCT AT KTPH.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

96/91/91




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