Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 031007

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
207 AM PST Sat Dec 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Quiet weather will continue into Sunday across Nevada
with the exception of a few flurries across northeastern Elko
county today. A cold front will move through the state early next
bringing light snow showers to northern Nevada late Sunday into
Monday. Another weak winter disturbance is expected to bring more
snow to the region late Monday into Tuesday.


.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday. A weak disturbance moving
across the northern Rockies will bring increased cloud cover to
northern Nevada and possibly some light snow to far northeast Elko
county today. Otherwise, generally quiet weather in expected
through Sunday morning. A cold front approaches the NV/ID border
Sunday afternoon with accompanying winter precipitation, most of
which is expected to fall as snow in primarily Humboldt and Elko
counties Sunday night and Monday morning. Snow accumulations of
around an inch in valleys and 2 to 4 inches in higher elevations
and ranges are expected before more light snow moves into northern
Nevada Monday night.

Temperatures behind the cold front will be 10 to 15 degrees colder
across the state on Monday. Winds are expected to increase across
NV/ID border late Sunday as a mid-level jet enters the region
but will occur at night so event should be less impactful
regarding strong winds.

.LONG TERM...Monday night through Saturday.

Broad cyclonic flow over western North America starts the period. A
tightly closed upper low over the Queen Charlotte Islands will drop
southeast into Tuesday afternoon with increasing pops. Moisture from
this northeast Pacific fetch is characteristically on the low side,
therefore precip/snow amounts will be modest with the higher
northern Nevada terrain getting the best shot, but even then,

Flow changes to northwest and dries out a bit under a short ridge
from late Tuesday into Thursday, then another set of short waves
move into the Great Basin from the same northeast Pacific source
region. Pops from this event reach further south into most of
northern Lander and Eureka Counties and southern Elko County. Even
though the flow is generally west-northwest, it bears a cyclonic
curvature and provides enough lift to continue pops for the rest of
the long term forecast period.

Temps warm a hair today into Sunday, but then drop precipitously,
especially mid week with Tuesday and Wednesday likely not getting out
of the 20s north and 30s south and lows near zero or below. The
warmest spots, typically, will be in western Humboldt and northern
Nye Counties. A little warmer after Thursday.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions at all terminals through 12Z Sunday, but
middle level ceilings will gradually develop at KWMC...KEKO...and
KELY. Gusty northwest winds will develop at KTPH before 20Z
Saturday, but then diminish in the afternoon.




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