Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 232120

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
220 PM PDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Unsettled weather will continue through Memorial Day
weekend as a trough of low pressure sits entrenched over the
western US. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely each
day with below average temperatures.


.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday. IR satellite imagery
shows an upper low pressure center circulating over Canada north
of Montana with the mean trough axis extending southwest all the
way back through northern California. The current orientation of
the trough is yielding a predominant southwest flow aloft of the
Great Basin. Temperatures dipped to freezing in many areas last
night but have bounced back into the upper 50s to around 60 thus
far. The models are in good general agreement with the synoptic
pattern for the short term period however there is bound to be
some local disagreement due to the complicated pattern of short
waves being introduced by the models.

A general trough pattern will persist across the LKN CWFA. Central
low pressure over Canada will make little movement. A ridge over
the central U.S. will provide enough blocking that the trough axis
will only pivot around this central point. Another low will drop
down into the base of the trough in the meantime and the trough
axis will slowly swing through Nevada, to realign through the
eastern part of the state Wednesday. Showers will occur daily with
afternoon and evening thunderstorms possible each day.

This evening. Isolated thunderstorms will mainly be east of the
Ruby Mountains, getting some lift assist from the left front
quadrant of the H3 jet core over southeast Nevada.

Tuesday. Instability will become more widespread as the trough
axis punches directly through the state. Indications are that
there will be a cold core aloft along the Oregon and Idaho border
and another one over southern Lander County. Cape values are
higher over northern Elko County as is the frontogenesis
prognosis. There is little or no shear so these areas may be where
the scattered coverage of thunderstorms occur with a heavier rain
band extending from southern Lander County through northern Elko
County. However the Wendover area is of some concern late in the
day where GFS20 model shear is enhanced.

Wednesday. Instability is still prevalent all across the Great
Basin as the low pressure area at the base of the trough moves to
near Las Vegas, pulling the trough axis through the eastern part
of the state. The pre-storm environment does not seem indicative
of severe storms however scattered coverage of thunderstorms is
expected and there could be a heavy rain core from the Ruby
Mountains eastward.

This persistent wet pattern will also keep bringing in cooler
air. There may be some spots at or near the freezing mark again
tonight, dependent on the amount of clearing, while daytime
temperatures struggle to get to the 60 degree mark Tuesday and
Wednesday due to the abundant cloudiness and cool air brought
down by the heavier showers.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Monday. The long term period
will continue to be one of unsettled weather. Main weather pattern
throughout this period will be a long wave trough over the West
Coast of the United States. This will result in cooler than normal
temperatures over the forecast area.

Wednesday night into Thursday. Model simulations depict a cool northwest
flow over northern and central Nevada to begin the long term
period. Expect isolated thunderstorms and at least scattered
showers during the afternoon. Winds will be breezy out of the
northwest, but should remain below advisory criteria. Afternoon
highs will be in the upper 50s to upper 60s.

Thursday night through Monday. Another upper level system will be
dropping almost due south through this time frame. The models are
somewhat consistent with these feature through roughly early
Saturday, then diverge as to how far west to dig the system on
Saturday. The resulting forecast continues the trend of unsettled
weather through this period, with temperatures below normal.
Readings will be in the 50s far north to the 70s in the central,
although readings could be cooler if locales encountered cloudy
conditions with off-and-on rain showers throughout the day.
Afternoon winds will be breezy each day, with the strongest winds
seen in central nevada. At this time, it does not appear advisory
criteria winds are likely, but will continue to watch model


.AVIATION...VFR conditions through the 24-hour time frame. Kept
VCSH at sites, but shower activity will not affect CIG/VSBY.
Winds S-SW10-15G25kts possible during the afternoon hours,
diminishing after sunset.


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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