Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 211108

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
308 AM PST Tue Feb 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...An active weather pattern will continue through much
of the week. A strong storm system today will bring high winds to
most of the state today along with valley rain and mountain snow
for northern and central Nevada. A colder air mass behind a
frontal boundary combined with lingering Pacific moisture will
bring snow to valleys floors Tuesday night and Wednesday. Periods
of snow will persist through Thursday before drier conditions
settle in for end of the week.


.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday. Very active pattern will
continue through Thursday. Ample Pacific moisture, strong mid-
level jet and cold front will combine to bring additional valley
rain and mountain snow to northern and central NV today and
tonight. Sufficiently colder air behind the front will aid in
transitioning valley rain to snow across the northern half of the
state by late tonight into early Wednesday morning. A full
transition to almost all snow across the CWA is expected by
Wednesday afternoon as the front drops southward into central NV.
In addition, strong jet dynamics and instability aloft could
spark a few thunderstorms along the frontal boundary today.

A near 100kt 500 mb jet along with a tight pressure gradient today will
induce strong surface winds across the state. Advisory level winds
of 25 to 35 mph are expected by late this morning lasting through
the late afternoon and early evening hours. Winds will diminish
substantially as the trough shifts eastward tonight into Wed.
Instability introduced into the region and resulting convection
could enhance surface winds locally if higher winds get mixed

Latest model guidance suggest a band of heavier snow setting up
over eastern Humboldt and northern ELko county Wednesday so this
will have to be watched closely for locally enhanced snowfall
amounts nearing advisory levels.

Temperatures will drop around 10 degrees on average across the
state with highs today in the 40s to mid 50s farther south
falling to the 30s and 40s Wednesday. Highs may not make it out of
freezing for many locations across the state Thursday.

.LONG TERM...Thursday night through next Tuesday. The models are
in fairly good agreement with a large and broad trof across the
western two thirds of the country on Thursday/Friday. Multiple
impulses appear to rotate around the western periphery of the
trof with each one bringing the possibility of light snow. This
will also keep the temps quite chilly with afternoon highs
generally in the 30s and 40s. Nighttime lows could dip into the
single digits with our cold places near zero Friday morning.

Heights will rise briefly with a little bit of a warm up Saturday
before the next storm system begins to impact the CWA.

Saturday night through Tuesday, the weather could get interesting
as a deep and very cold closed low slides down along the PacNW.
The GFS/EURO currently agree on the general specifics of the
storm, but this is still around 145hrs into the future. A lot
could change and this will need to be watched closely. Due to the
nature of the system, it would be mostly a snow event or at least
rain changing to snow. After the system slowly departs, a cool and
northerly/northwesterly flow will follow.


.AVIATION...The precip has stopped at all TAF sites outside the
occasional -shra. As a frontal band in Humboldt CO begins to slide
south/east later this morning, expect -shra to redevelop for
KEKO/KWMC. MVFR conditions possible, especially if KEKO changes
over to snow or rain/snow mix. The frontal bndry should make it
to KWMC later this morning and KEKO by the afternoon/evening. KELY
wont see any impacts until Tue evening/night. Winds will be quite
strong with gusts over 50mph possible at all TAF sites,
especially at KELY/KWMC/KEKO Tue afternoon.


.HYDROLOGY...Recent widespread rainfall amounts of 0.20 to near
one half inch on top of nearly saturated ground induced a rapid
rise in streams and creeks across Humboldt and Elko counties.
ELko, Humboldt and northern parts of Lander and Eureka counties
continue under areal flood advisories with Martin Creek reaching
into major flood stage. The liquid precip comes at a critical time
in the ongoing flooding situation on the lower HUmboldt River. In
addition, uncertainty exists on how flow from Martin Creek will
affect areas near and downstream of the Martin Creek/Humboldt
junction. Flows at the Martin Creek gage around 1400 CFS could
significantly affect overall flow going into the Humboldt prior to
main flood wave arriving late tonight or Thursday. Careful
consideration in this scenario should be taken in the next 24
hours or so.


Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM PST this evening
for Humboldt County-Northeastern Nye County-Northern Elko County-
Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka County-Northwestern
Nye County-Ruby Mountains/East Humboldt Range-South Central Elko
County-Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County-
Southwestern Elko County-White Pine County.



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