Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 310910
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
210 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER ACROSS NEVADA FOR THE END
OF AUGUST AND THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER...WITH WARM
AFTERNOONS...COOL NIGHTS...AND DRY CONDITIONS. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TUESDAY.

CLEAR CALM AND COOL ACROSS NEVADA THIS MORNING. RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL DELIVER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

MUCH DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO NEVADA, ENDING ANY CHANCE OF
RAIN. CUMULUS BUILDUPS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS AND NEAR
WHITE PINE COUNTY, WHERE NAM HANGS ONTO WEAK MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. SW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAX TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 80S.

TUESDAY...CONTINUED MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY, WITH 2-4 DEGREES OF
WARMING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. SW WINDS INCREASE, AVERAGING 15-25
MPH ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA, AND 20-30 MPH/GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA.  BAT


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS REMAIN
IN FAVOR OF TAKING AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. SOME DISCREPANCIES ARE FOUND IN DETAILS SUCH AS HOW FAR
SOUTH THE TROUGH GOES...AS WELL AS TIMING AND STRENGTH.

THIS FORECAST CYCLE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE FLIP-FLOPPED ON THE
AMPLITUDE WITH THE ECMWF DIGGING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS.
EVEN THOUGH THIS IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE...BOTH MODELS ENHANCE
SURFACE/LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LOWER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND ALONG WITH INCREASES WINDS FOR
POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BOTH OF THESE DAYS. ANY
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED SHOWERS.

THE GFS LIFTS THE TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO MONTANA THE FIRST HALF THE
THE WEEKEND IS SLOWER BY ABOUT 24 HOURS LIFTING IT NORTHEASTWARD. AT
THIS POINT...WILL FOLLOW THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH MAKES THE COOLEST
DAYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREE BELOW NORMAL. THE MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SHOW A REBOUND AS THE
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST WHICH WILL ADD A FEWS DEGREES TO THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  89

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PATCHY MID CLOUDS TO DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER 18Z-19Z
FROM EAST OF THE RUBIES SOUTH ACROSS WHITE PINE AND NORTHERN NYE
COUNTIES AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND.  89

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIRMASS ACROSS NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
MIN RH OF 8-14% FOR ALL FWZ. SW WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS, AVERAGING 10-20 MPH. SOME GUSTS OF 25-30 ACROSS FWZ 455
AND 457 THIS AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...2-4 DEGREES WARMER ACROSS NORTHERN FWZ. MIN RH REMAINS
NEAR 10% FOR ALL FWZ, WITH AN INCREASE IN SW WINDS. WIND GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH, AND LOCAL/BRIEF RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SW WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ACROSS SE FWZ 454, 455 AND 457 TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WHERE GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE
COMMON. WITH RH AS LOW AS 9%, A RED FLAG WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED.  BAT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/89/89/99



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