Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 251904

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
204 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

.Short Term...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 200 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

Much needed period of dry weather underway across southern Indiana
and central Kentucky. High pressure currently over southern Missouri
will drift east toward the Ohio Valley through tonight. Visible
satellite imagery shows high clouds streaming northeast from the
Gulf, especially across central Kentucky. Mid afternoon readings
were in the mid to upper 40s.

Expect partly to mostly clear conditions tonight. While the synoptic
setup and antecedent conditions would support fog formation across
the area (light winds and high soil moisture) the high clouds
overhead through most of the night should keep fog from becoming
more than patchy. However, given just how wet the grounds are,
patchy fog may form around river valleys, low-lying areas, etc and
it could become locally dense. Otherwise, plan on lows in the 30s.

Dry weather continues Monday and Monday night with high pressure
moving through the region. A southern stream system will track
through portions of eastern TN and eastern KY, but our area is
expected to stay dry. Highs will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Lows Monday night are forecast to be in the 30s again.


.Long Term...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

...More Rainfall Mid-Week...

Late Tuesday night a shortwave trough will lift from Texas toward
the TN Valley reaching the lower Ohio Valley Wednesday. Increasing
isentropic lift and moisture transport should break out widespread
showers and potentially some thunderstorms across the area
as early as Wednesday morning.

Then another wave of showers and thunderstorms looks likely
Wednesday night and Thursday as a low pressure deepens and races
toward the lower Great Lakes. The better dynamics for stronger
storms appears to be south of the area, but will have to watch
closely for changes in timing and placement of the synoptic
features for any severe weather potential.

Overall, forecast rainfall with this system is up to 1 inch across
southern Indiana and north central Kentucky, and 1-2 inches across
south-central Kentucky. Despite the 3 day dry weather leading up to
it, this additional rainfall could aggravate, renew, worsen, or
prolong the river flooding across the area. See the hydrology
section for further information on how it could affect river crests.

Beyond that, a period of upper troughing and high pressure will
bring a cooler but drier weather pattern next weekend.


.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1206 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

Plan on VFR conditions through the TAF period. Sct/broken high
clouds will continue across central Kentucky through the period with
westerly winds becoming light/variable tonight. Patchy fog may
develop tonight but at this time, the high clouds are expected to
keep fog from becoming anything more than patchy.


Updated at 130 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

Many rivers remain in flood across southern Indiana and central
Kentucky. Moderate flooding is occurring along the Ohio River with
some locations forecast to go into major flooding, and current
projections show the crest to occur sometime on Monday. For a
complete listing with forecast hydrographs, please visit our website

Areal flood warnings remain in effect through late this afternoon to
account for the high water that continues to run over roads across
portions of central Kentucky and southern Indiana. Backwater
flooding of low-lying areas will continue and be extremely slow to

A mid-week system will bring a few potential rounds of showers and
thunderstorms to the area. There remains some uncertainity in how
much rain will fall, but at this time, up to 1 inch is possible
across southern Indiana and north central Kentucky, while 1 to 2
inches are possible across south-central Kentucky.

It is worth noting that this rainfall forecast is not accounted yet
in the river forecast models as its too far out in time. Guidance
from the Ohio River Forecast Center (OHRFC) suggests that this
rainfall could prolong the crests a few days or delay the fall in
river levels.


Issued at 145 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

Louisville International Airport (SDF) broke its monthly
precipitation record for February. Through this afternoon, 10.47" of
rain has fallen this month. This exceeds the previous monthly record
of 9.84" from 1884. SDF also has the potential to break into the top
10 all-time wettest months on record. The 10th wettest month on
record is 11.38" in January 1950.

Other central Kentucky climate sites totals and respective February

        Through 12 AM 2/25      Feb Monthly Record
LEX     9.12"                   10.12" (1989)
BWG     8.16"                   11.27" (1989)
FFT     8.69"                   9.97"  (1909)




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