Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 022144

544 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2014

...Mesoscale Forecast Update...
Issued at 543 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2014

Band of strong convection continue to work eastward into the coal
fields of eastern Kentucky.  Secondary band of storms has just
crossed the Ohio River with a decent outflow boundary accompanying
it.  Strong storms will affect portions of north-central KY over the
next 2 hours...from the Louisville metro area east to Frankfort.
This activity may hold together and bring another round of storms to
the Lexington metro area this evening.  Additional convection may
develop further southwest along the outflow boundary.  These would
affect Breckinridge, Meade, Hardin and Grayson counties.

A third area of convection will affect our far southern KY
counties.  This activity looks to be focused south of the Bowling
Green area...mainly from Russellville over towards Tompkinsville and
points south.  Storms are training in this area and we will be
closely monitoring rainfall amounts for possible hydrologic issues.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage by
late afternoon, with possibly two areas of concentration. The first
area may develop along and south of the Cumberland Parkway, along an
old outflow boundary left over from this morning decaying mesoscale
convective complex. A surface analysis shows our best instability
across our southern counties. Should any robust storms develop
across our south, some may produce gusty winds.

Scattered storms will also scoot across southern Indiana and areas
north of Interstate 64 late this afternoon as well. A weak wave will
cross southern Indiana late this afternoon and scattered storms have
already developed across southern Indiana.

Scattered showers and isolated thunder will diminish by late evening
as surface heating is lost. Drier mid-level air will seep south into
the Commonwealth later this evening as mid-level flow become
westerly. This will finally rid us of our persistent mid and high
level cloudiness associated with our recent tropical air. Some
afternoon cumulus will develop Wednesday, keeping skies partly

Winds will become light Wednesday as surface high pressure moves
over the Lower Ohio Valley. Weak subsidence and drier mid-levels
will keep Wednesday dry, although it will stay warm and humid.
Low temperatures will fall into the upper 60s to the lower 70s
tonight, rising into the upper 80s to around 90 Wednesday.

Skies will clear Wednesday evening. Expect mostly clear skies and
slightly cooler temps for Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2014

At the beginning of the long term, surface high pressure will be
centered over the mid-Atlantic with low pressure over the Red River
of the North that will have a cold front dropping southward through
the Plains.  This will situate us right in the heart of warm, moist
southerly surface flow.  Aloft, strong ridging will be in place from
Thursday into Friday.  Some afternoon pop-up storms will be possible
on Thursday, but activity should be rather sparse due to the lack of
a strong trigger. Storm chances will increase Friday as the cold
front approaches from the northwest, though there will still be some
slight capping present through the day.  Widespread severe weather
is not expected, but a few storms could put down some gusty winds.

The front will be weakening as it enters the Ohio Valley and will
still be drifting southward from Kentucky into the Tennessee Valley
on Saturday.  Thus, we will need to keep storm chances in the
forecast for Saturday.  Severe weather looks even less likely on
Saturday than on Friday.

Sunday through Tuesday we`ll sit between surface high pressure
traveling from the Great Lakes to the Northeast and flat upper
ridging to our south.  We could be in a position to see some
afternoon pop-up convection, but GFS QPF is probably overdone and
chances and confidence are low enough at this point to keep daily
PoPs out of the forecast.

High temperatures Thursday and Friday will be around 90 in that warm
southerly flow.  Saturday through Tuesday will mostly see 80s,
though southern Indiana and northern Kentucky may not make it out of
the 70s on Sunday.  With partly cloudy skies, temperatures mostly in
the 70s, and dew points from the mid 50s to mid 60s, Sunday looks to
be the nicest day of the long term, especially over the northern
half of the area.


.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2014

A cold front will dissipate over the Commonwealth later today.
Pockets of broken low strato-cu will provide brief MVFR ceilings for
SDF and possibly LEX through late afternoon. However, think that
outside of any scattered showers or thunderstorms, ceilings will
stay predominately VFR.

Winds this afternoon will continue from the southwest at around 5 to
9kt. This evening they will back to the south and average around 5kt
before turning southwesterly again and remaining light for

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely develop
area-wide later this afternoon, and continue through the evening
hours. Think that the unorganized nature of this convection, coupled
with only around a expected 40% coverage, should preclude attempting
to time any convection in the TAFs.

Scattered showers will dissipate this evening, leaving partly cloudy
skies for Wednesday morning. Dry weather with VFR flying conditions
expected for Wednesday.




Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......13
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