Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
FXUS63 KLMK 272101
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
501 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016
Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri May 27 2016
GOES-R Convective Initiation product caught on the band of showers
now around KBWG, moving north. The product did not do as well over
Lake Cumberland where a few other small cells have developed.
Adjusted the pop forecast to account for these bands of favored
areas over the near term.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 240 PM Fri May 27 2016
The latest analysis showed high pressure at the surface and aloft
off the Carolina coast while a closed low was located in the front
range of the Colorado Rockies. Rich Gulf moisture was streaming
northward from Texas through the mid-Mississippi Valley where
convection has been firing up most of the day. Locally, southerly
winds prevailed with readings up in the mid 80s and a mix of sun and
clouds and so far dry conditions.
Despite the juicy air mass, a lack of a surface trigger or upper
level wave has kept the local area dry so far. And we`re expecting a
mainly dry evening, minus some isolated to scattered showers or
storms lifting northward off the Cumberland plateau. Additional
showers may try to develop across western KY and TN and spread east
into the area later this evening, but confidence on that happening
Otherwise, plan on another muggy night with lows in the mid 60s to
For Saturday, models continue to show an upper level impulse
swinging through the lower Ohio Valley. This should aid in a higher
coverage of showers and storms, though it certainly won`t be a
washout day. Plenty of clouds will hold temps in check, so most
locations will top out in the lower/mid 80s, but depending on timing
a few spots west of I-65 could stay in the 70s.
.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri May 27 2016
By late this weekend into Memorial Day, the upper level pattern will
become more zonal. This lack of forcing aloft will limit
precipitation chances, but will still honor the moist air mass with
20 to 30 percent chances for diurnal pop-up showers/storms. Temps
will be solidly above normal, but it will be difficult to get enough
sunshine to crack the 90 degree mark in this pattern.
Heading into the middle to latter portions of next week, we`ll begin
to see amplification in the upper pattern such that a few impulses
may begin to affect the area. The 12z models don`t offer a lot of
confidence that far out, so will side with a model consensus which
advertises 20 to 40 percent chances Wednesday through Friday.
Temperatures will likely remain above seasonal normals in the 80s to
perhaps near 90 in a few spots across southern Kentucky.
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Fri May 27 2016
Generally VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. For
the remainder of the afternoon winds will be out of the south to SSW
around 10-12 knots. Short term guidance does suggest spotty showers
or storms will be possible. However, if they do coverage looks to be
fairly isolated, so have kept the mention of precipitation out of
the TAFs for now. Overnight winds will relax, but should stay up
enough that fog may have a hard time forming.
For Saturday there will again be chances for some showers and
storms. Some of the latest guidance has backed off a bit on
precipitation chances, so will continue just with the mention of