Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
FXUS63 KLMK 241859
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
259 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017
.Short Term (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017
A southerly breeze and partly to mostly cloudy skies will keep
temperatures elevated tonight, with most lows in or around the upper
Low pressure will move NNE across Missouri Saturday and Saturday
night with its warm front well to our north. Even with increasing
cloudiness and showers/storms moving in in the afternoon, models
will underestimate high temperatures in the deep, strong WAA
tomorrow, so will go above guidance for MaxT. The showers and storms
will be most likely in the afternoon, especially west of I-65. (Some
models, like the RAP and the 3km NAM, actually hold precip off until
It will be a breezy day in the warm sector with afternoon gusts of
30 to 35 mph possible, especially in the Bowling Green region.
Showers and scattered thunderstorms are virtually a certainty
Saturday night as the low to our west pushes a weak surface trof
through the Ohio Valley with deep moisture to work with. General
rainfall totals should be around half an inch.
.Long Term (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017
The Missouri surface low will slowly fill as it heads into the Great
Lakes by Monday morning with showers and thunderstorms continuing
out ahead of it. A 5h speed max coming in from the west Sunday
afternoon could enhance thunderstorm development in eastern sections
of central Kentucky.
After a brief break Sunday night, the next low will move from the
Ozarks to southern Great Lakes Monday-Monday night and bring more
showers and thunderstorms along with it. The better instability and
upper dynamics will be over the lower Mississippi Valley, but mid-
level lapse rates will steepen here in the afternoon coincident with
the low approaching from the west, so a few stronger storms Monday
afternoon aren`t entirely out of the question.
Tuesday the upper trof from the previous day will be off to our east
with some weak ridging moving in. Models do show lingering sfc-
850hPa moisture, with some light rain showers possible primarily in
the morning before the surface trof completely clears the area.
After a mid-week break, the next system will come out of the Plains
late in the week and bring more showers Thursday-Friday.
With the active storm track, no intrusions of Canadian air are in
our near future. The coolest morning will probably be on Thursday
with lows upper 40s to lower 50s.
.Aviation (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017
Mostly clear skies late this morning and early this afternoon have
allowed for deeper mixing and gusts between 25-35 mph at times.
Given the onset of more cloud cover, expect gusts to be peaking now
and actually tailing off a bit this afternoon, so have kept mention
in TAFS around 25 to 30 mph.
Otherwise, expect a Few-Sct diurnal Cu and broken upper level
ceilings to move in later this afternoon and evening. Winds will
tail off to a SSE direction around 5 to 10 mph around sunset. With
LLJ cranking up after Midnight there is just enough speed and
directional shear coupled with an inversion to mention LLWS.
Inversion should break a couple hours after sunrise on Saturday,
with Bkn to Ovc mid level ceilings and low level moisture return
contributing to some Sct clouds around 4 K feet. Gusty SSW winds
should commence by mid to late morning. Rain chances should hold off
until just after this TAF cycle.