Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 222352
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL RESULT
IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
AFTER MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...
MIXED BAG OF TEMPERATURE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INTERIOR AREAS
A TOUCH WARMER WITH THE DELAYED SEABREEZE AND COASTAL SECTIONS A
TOUCH COOLER WITH THE INCREASED MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE.

THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER OREGON WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE THIS CHANGE WILL SHIFT THE FLOW ALOFT
FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO MORE WESTERLY...500MB HEIGHTS AND PRESSURE
GRADIENTS DO NOT CHANGE VERY MUCH. THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW TODAY
WILL HELP MOISTEN UP THE INLAND SECTIONS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE
MARINE LAYER AND ASSOCIATED STRATUS TO PUSH FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT
THAN IT DID THIS MORNING. AFTER THAT...WITH SUCH A STAGNANT
PATTERN...NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

THE ONLY SOURCES OF CHANGE WILL INCLUDE THE RANDOM EBBS AND FLOWS OF
THE MARINE LAYER AND STRATUS COVERAGE...AS WELL AS A LITTLE SWATH
OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING IN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHICH
COULD DISRUPT THE MARINE LAYER OVER LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES. AT THIS POINT HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING THE CLOUD COVER TO
BE ENOUGH TO CHANGE IT TOO MUCH. NO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF BAJA AND A HIGH OFF THE OREGON
COAST WILL MERGE OVER CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN AND COULD EVEN GO A LITTLE
OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING HOURS. THIS ALL SHOULD SPELL A HEALTHY
WARMING TREND EVERYWHERE...WITH A GRADUALLY SHRINKING MARINE LAYER
INFLUENCE. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG GO AWAY
COMPLETELY BY WEDNESDAY...BUT CURRENT FORECAST IS ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE BY HAVING THE CLOUDS RETREAT TO THE COAST.
REGARDLESS...DENSE FOG WILL BE AN INCREASING CONCERN. NO WIND
CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED.

STILL-BREWING HURRICANE MARIE IS SLATED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE BAJA
COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE-TO-END OF NEXT WEEK...STAYING ABOUT 800
MILES OFFSHORE. BY THE TIME IT IS OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
ON THURSDAY...WE SHOULD SEE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE REGION.
THIS WOULD BRING A TOUCH OF COOLING TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE NOT EXPECTING SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT...IF THE HURRICANE MOVES ANY CLOSER TO
SHORE IT WOULD MOVE INTO THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. A LARGE SOUTH
SWELL IS ALSO LIKELY WITH THE STORMS PROXIMITY.

&&

.AVIATION...22/2345Z.
MARINE LAYER DEPTH EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 FEET TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING IFR/MVFR CIGS TO MOST COASTAL/VALLEY TAF
SITES. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF VTU AND SBA COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SO EXPECTING EARLIER ARRIVAL TIMES TONIGHT. SLOWER BURNOFF
EXPECTED ACROSS COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
CIGS LINGERING AT KLAX...KOXR...AND KSBA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. WHILE KLAX WILL LIKELY
SEE MVFR CIGS AT SOME POINT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...TIMING COULD
BE +/- 2HOURS FROM 05Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF CIGS LINGERING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. LEANING TOWARDS IFR CIGS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...22/130 PM.
NO SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.BEACHES...22/130 PM...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
HIGH SURF ACROSS SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.  SURF HAS BEEN
BUILDING SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BREAKERS UP TO 8
FEET BEING OBSERVED AT PORT HUENEME AND 6 FEET AT CABRILLO BEACH.

THE HIGHEST SURF WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WHEN BREAKERS OF 5 TO 7 FEET WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTH
FACING BEACHES WITH LOCAL SETS UP TO 9 FEET IN FAVORED LOCATIONS.
AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
WILL BE THE PALOS VERDES PENINSULA INCLUDING CABRILLO BEACH...
MALIBU... AND ZUMA BEACHES.  IN VENTURA COUNTY... PORT HUENEME AND
POINT MUGU WILL BE AT HIGHEST RISK.

A SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM LOWELL IS THE CAUSE OF THIS
INCREASING SURF AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.  THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
AN EVEN HIGHER SOUTHERLY SURF EVENT FOR THE BEACHES OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS TROPICAL STORM MARIE
FOLLOWS A SIMILAR PATH AS LOWELL AND POTENTIALLY DEVELOPS INTO A
HURRICANE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION...GOMBERG
MARINE/BEACHES...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

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