Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 231408 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
700 AM PDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND THROUGH TOMORROW THEN COOLER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
AN INCREASE IN OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. WARM AND DRY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
THE MARINE LAYER IS 700 FEET DEEP AND THE ONSHORE FLOW IS QUITE
WEAK. MARINE LAYER STRATUS CURRENTLY ONLY AFFECT WESTERN SBA COUNTY
INCLUDING THE SANTA YNEZ VLY. THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS FORMING IN
THE SANTA MONICA BASIN SO THE L.A. COUNTY COAST WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
PATCHY MORNING LOW CLOUDS. TODAY WILL BE SUNNY AND WARMER AS A 592
DM UPPER HIGH OVER YUMA WILL BRING HIGHER HGTS AND THE WEAK ONSHORE
PUSH WILL ALLOW FOR A LATER SEA BREEZE.

IT WILL BE HARD TO TELL WEDNESDAY APART FROM TODAY. MAX TEMPS MAY
RISE A DEGREE AS THE GRADIENTS TREND EVERY SO SLIGHTLY MORE
OFFSHORE. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER MORNING CLOUD COVERAGE OVER
SRN L.A. COUNTY...BUT OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE.

A LARGE EARLY SEASON PAC NW STORM SETS UP SHOP A COUPLE OF HUNDRED
MILES WEST OF VANCOUVER ISLAND. IT WILL WHIP A COLD FRONT INTO
WASHINGTON...OREGON AND NRN CAL WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE FRONT
WILL DIE ON THE VINE SOUTH OF THE BAY AREA AND THE CHC OF RAIN WILL
END AROUND MONTERREY. SILL LOW WILL BRING A DEEPER MARINE LAYER.
SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY AS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM OVER
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HGTS WILL DROP THROUGH THE DAY. MAX
TEMPS WILL DROP 5 TO 15 DEGREES WITH THE BIGGEST DROPS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
THE TROF WILL SIT NEARLY STATIONARY OFF OF THE WEST COAST FRI AND
SAT, THE LOWER HGTS AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL TRIGGER A DEEP
MARINE LAYER THAT WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS TO ALL OF THE COASTS AND
VLYS AND MAY EVEN CLIMB UP THE COASTAL SLOPES. CANT RULE OUT SOME
LOCAL DRIZZLE DURING THE MORNING ESP NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. MAX TEMPS
WILL FALL EACH DAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7.

THE LOW WILL EXIT THE AREA SUNDAY AND DRY NW FLOW WILL SET UP IN ITS
PLACE. RISING HGTS WILL SMOOSH THE MARINE LAYER SOME AND WILL KICK
UP TEMPS SOME. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF (WEAK) OFFSHORE FLOW SETTING
UP MONDAY AND THIS WILL FURTHER SHRINK THE MARINE LAYER AS WELL AS
CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1140Z

AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDS WILL AFFECT THE
CENTRAL COAST THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. S OF PT CONCEPTION...
STRATUS WILL BE MORE PATCHY IN NATURE...BUT STILL EXPECT OCNL LOW
MVFR TO HIGH IFR CONDS IN AREAS NEAR THE COAST THROUGH MID MORNING.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH IFR TO LOW MVFR CONDS ON THE
CENTRAL COAST...IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY...AND ACROSS COASTAL
SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THIS MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THRU THE PD.

&&

.MARINE...23/315 AM

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN LOW-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ONLY
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS (NORTH AND WEST OF POINT SAL).

ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONDS REMAINING BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRI.

A LARGE LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PEAK ON THURSDAY THEN LINGER THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






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