Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 101125
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
325 AM PST Sat Dec 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of weak disturbances will continue to bring periods of
light rain to the area through Sunday morning. Expect another
round of light showers midweek for the Central Coast, becoming more
potent and widespread later in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-MON)


Overall, 00Z models in good synoptic agreement through the period.
At upper levels, moist west to northwest flow pattern will
continue through the weekend. Near the surface, weak onshore flow
will continue.

Forecast-wise, 00Z models indicate nothing to deviate too much
from previous forecast thinking. There will continue to be a
threat of precipitation across the area through tonight. For this
morning, there is a chance of rain north of Point Conception and a
slight chance south of Point Conception. This afternoon, rain
chances will decrease. However by this evening, models are
indicating another disturbance moving over the area which will
lead to a greater possibility of some rain for the area (with the
best chances of rain north of Point Conception). Additional
rainfall amounts should be light, generally around 0.10 inches
(although northwest SLO county could receive a bit more). For
Sunday and Monday, partly cloudy and dry conditions are expected.

As for temperatures, cool conditions will continue through Monday
(due to cloud cover, rain and onshore flow). Afternoon high
temperatures will remain in the 60s, except for the 50s in the
mountains.

.LONG TERM...(TUE-FRI)

Overall, 00Z models continue to exhibit decent synoptic agreement
through the period. At upper levels, near zonal flow will continue
through Wednesday, then a trough will move across the area
Thursday and Friday. Near the surface, weak onshore flow will
prevail through Wednesday with stronger flow developing on
Thursday and Friday.

Forecast-wise, Tuesday and Wednesday will be partly to mostly
cloudy days. There will br the threat of some light rain north of
Point Conception as the tail end of a northern California system
clips the area. Rainfall amounts, if any, will be light. On
Thursday and Friday, a more significant system is forecast to
impact the area. The models exhibit some differences in timing
(ECMWF faster than GFS), but there is a good chance of decent
rainfall sometime Thursday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...10/1130Z...

At 11Z, there was a deep moist layer up to 7500 ft but no true
marine layer or inversion.

Widespread IFR to LIFR conds across the region this morning with
local VLIFR. Conds are expected to gradually improve to MVFR in
most areas by afternoon, then widespread MVFR conds and local IFR
conditions are expected for the remainder of the period. There
will be an increasing chance of rain later today through this
evening, mainly across SLO and SBA Counties.

KLAX...Low confidence in the 12Z TAF. There is a 30 to 40 percent
chance of IFR to LIFR conds at times through 18z.

KBUR...Low confidence in the 12Z TAF. There is a 30 to 40 percent
chance that LIFR conds will persist through 17z and that IFR conds
will linger through 20z.

&&

.MARINE...10/300 AM.

Moderate to high confidence that gusty w to nw winds will reach
SCA levels across the southern two thirds of the outer waters, and
at least western portions of the SBA Channel and the southern
inner waters later today through late tonight. Short period and
choppy seas will likely affect these areas as well.

Winds are expected to decrease late tonight, but SCA level NW
winds are likely across the outer waters Sunday afternoon into
Sun night. Winds could get close to advisory levels across the
northern inner waters during the times, and across western
portions of the SBA channel. Choppy short-period seas will
continue to affect the SBA Channel and southern inner waters Sun
through Mon, but they should gradually begin to subside a bit.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Sunday for
      zones 650-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PST Sunday for zones 655-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...(MON-FRI)
There is the potential for widespread rains and gusty winds later
next week. Still considerable uncertainty in timing and amounts
from this storm, but most likely impacting the area sometime
between Thursday and Friday. There is the potential for a cold and
unsettled pattern lingering into next weekend, with a threat of
rain showers and mountain snow.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...Kaplan

weather.gov/losangeles


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