Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 272042
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1242 PM PST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The second of two relatively weak weather systems will bring cool
temperatures and a chance of rain and mountain snow today. The best
chance for rain will be in the southern portion of the forecast
area. High pressure will bring clear skies and a warming trend
Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-THU)

Light showers are skirting the extreme southeastern LA County
border this afternoon with some spotty sprinkles and light showers
elsewhere. Those should taper off this evening as the trough
passes and northwest flow takes over. Some north slope clouds and
showers will persist tonight but otherwise it will be partly
cloudy then mostly clear. Overnight lows will be on the chilly
side due to the cool airmass. There will be some northerly canyon
winds but nothing will reach advisory levels.

Dry NW flow will set up over the area on Tuesday. It will be dry
and mostly sunny (partly cloudy at worst) Hgts only rise to 566 DM
so while there will be a couple degrees of warming max temps will
come in several degrees blo normal.

Weak ridging and NE offshore flow set up over the area on
Wednesday and Thursday. Skies will be sunny. Hgts rise to 574 DM
and max temps will rise 5 to 10 degrees and will mostly be a
degree or two above normal. There will be gusty morning canyon
winds but there is not enough upper or thermal support to produce
upper advisory level winds.

.LONG TERM...(FRI-MON)

High pressure continues Friday though with weaker offshore flow.
Friday will be the warmest day of the next 7.

Both the EC and GFS agree that Saturday will be dry and also cooler
than Friday as the ridge is flattened out and the offshore flow
relaxes.

Trof or a ridge Sunday? You choose. GFS advertises a cool trof
while the EC forecasts a very large scale ridge. Will sit back and
take a wait and see approach to this forecast. Whatever the mdl it
will be dry.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1630Z...

At 1615Z, there was no marine inversion at KLAX.

Overall, moderate to high confidence in 18Z TAF package. Deep
moist layer in place should keep any CIGs at VFR levels through
the period, although there is a 20-30% chance of MVFR CIGs
developing through this evening at any coastal/valley TAF site.
Scattered light showers will be possible through this afternoon.

KLAX...moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 20% chance of
MVFR CIGs 18Z-04Z. Easterly winds will remain below 7 knots this
morning.

KBUR...moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 30% chance of
MVFR CIGs 18Z-04Z.

&&

.MARINE...27/100 PM...

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Winds
will increase to Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels this afternoon
then continue at SCA levels through Saturday (although there may
be a bit of a lull during the day on Wednesday). Seas will
remain below SCA levels through Saturday.

For the Inner Waters, moderate confidence in current forecast.
Through Saturday, winds and and seas are expected to remain below
SCA levels. However, there is a 30% chance of SCA level wind
gusts this afternoon through Wednesday for the waters north of
Point Sal. For the waters south of Point Conception, there is a
20% chance of SCA level gusts tonight through Tuesday evening.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Wednesday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...(THU-MON)
No significant hazards expected.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...Sweet

weather.gov/losangeles



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