Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 031109
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
609 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH SOUTHERN
IOWA INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI AT THIS HOUR. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH TODAY AND BEGIN TO REALIGN ITSELF UNDER THE
NORTHWESTERLYUPPER FLOW ALOFT SO THAT IT WILL EXTEND FROM
CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THERE WILL NOT BE ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY TO PROVIDE ENHANCED ASCENT ALONG THE
FRONT...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG IT TO
SUPPORT GOING SLIGHT CHANCES. MLCAPES BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN
CWA WHERE MIXING WILL BE ABOVE 850MB.  TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE MIXING WILL BE ABOVE 850MB.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

THE SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING AND
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
GREATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVERNIGHT OVER NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI OVERNIGHT.  BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TWO
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. THIS JUSTIFIES THE GOING HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

WAVY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY
KEEPING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. HEIGHTS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR
20C. THIS SHOULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A FNT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY PUSH SWD.
WINDS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN A DIRECTION THIS MORNING WITH
VARIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME NLY BEHIND THE FNT THIS AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN AOB 8 KTS.

TILLY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



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