Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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869
FXUS61 KLWX 220759
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
359 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm, high pressure both at the surface and aloft will remain
overhead through the weekend and into next week. Hurricane Maria
is expected to remain over the Atlantic well to our southeast
through at least early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
500 mb ridge over the Midwest will provide to a subsidence
inversion today. Dry and warm weather will result. Highs will
run 5-10 degs warmer than normal. Increased sky cvr early this
morning as the high clouds appear quite dense on the GOES-16
split window difference product, but should thin out after
daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
500 mb ridge over the Midwest will gradually build east through
the weekend and be located over LK Ontario by Sun leading to a
strengthening subsidence inversion. Dry and warm weather will
continue. Highs will continue to run 5-10 degs warmer than
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Latest guidance is now depicting the complete dissipationg of
Jose off the coast of New England early next week, preventing
any additional impacts. High pressure at the surface and aloft
will therefore bring continued warm and dry weather Monday and
Tuesday. However, by Tuesday and Wednesday we will need to keep
an eye on Hurricane Maria. While not currently expected to
impact the region directly, we may get deep enough into its
enlarging circulation such that the northeast flow increases,
and a stray shower from an outer band is not impossible
depending on how close it gets. Odds are not in favor of
significant impacts to our region, but nevertheless, Maria`s
progress should continue to be monitored until the storm is on
its way into the open Atlantic later next week. Please consult
the National Hurricane Center for the latest information
regarding the forecast for Hurricane Maria.

By Thursday, a cold front looks likely to bring an end to our
September warm spell, while simultaneously pushing Maria away
from our region. The front may bring some showers with it.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Dense high overcast this morning will likely prevent any dense fog
formation. Otherwise, mainly VFR next few days.

VFR conditions expected Monday and Tuesday, the exception being
the potential for patchy morning fog at MRB and CHO.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will remain l0 kt or less through the weekend.

Winds will likely remain sub SCA Monday under high pressure.
Will need to watch Hurricane Maria, as SCA conditions may
develop Tuesday if it gets close enough.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flooding will continue at Straits Point for the
next few high tide cycles. Will likely cancel advzy for
Annapolis.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for MDZ014.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     MDZ017.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...RCM/LFR
MARINE...RCM/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR



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