Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 261433 AAA
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1033 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the area through the end of the
week. Low pressure may affect the region Memorial Day through
Tuesday. Weak high pressure builds for the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Shortwave-trough over the OH
valley will support a lee-side trof this afternoon with scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon in
warm moist environment. Shear is minimal and temps aloft are very
warm typical of mid- summer, so no severe risk today. Activity
will shift east in the early evening with storms dissipating
before midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

Increasing moisture trend continues Friday with dewpoints reaching
70F. Mid to upper 80s maxima will result in low 90s heat indices.
Diurnal scattered thunderstorm coverage that persists through the
evening expected again. Warm night with minima mid to upper 60s.

Upper level ridge builds into the area from the east north of a
developing low off the SC coast. Associated height rises create a
subsidence inversion and greatly limit convective development. Just
low chances in the Allegheny Mountains. Maxima mid 80s again with
dewpoints down into the mid 60s with upper 80s heat indices.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Moisture will be on the increase for the second half of the
holiday weekend as a weak area of low pressure slowly tracks north
over the Carolinas. Superblend continues to project highs in the
mid/upper 70s while Euro/GFS forecast low 80s. There`ll be chances
for showers/thunderstorms Sunday-Wednesday but severe threat looks
low to non-existant. GFS shows the deepest moisture advecting
over the Blue Ridge Wednesday so perhaps there could be a heavy
rain threat? But that is seven days away.

Looking really far out in time long range both models are
projecting a cold front moving onto the east coast at the end of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Light southerly flow and VFR conditions continue into the afternoon
when diurnal thunderstorms are expected to form (first storms west
of DC metros in the terrain). IFR conditions expected in heaviest
activity.

Southerly flow continues through Saturday. Similar thunderstorms
pattern Friday compared to Thursday. High pressure limits
thunderstorms Saturday.

Potential for showers/thunderstorms increases late Sunday evening
into early next week with sub-VFR conditions in storms. Otherwise
VFR conditions expected in the extended portion of the forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Light southerly flow persists through Saturday as high pressure
lingers near Bermuda. Will need to look out for southerly channeling
on the main waters, but no SCA expected as of this time.

Increasing chances on the waters for showers and thunderstorms
Sunday and Monday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...LFR/ABW
MARINE...LFR/ABW



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