Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 280743
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
343 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front will cross the area this afternoon. High pressure
builds over the region Wednesday into Thursday. Another
disturbance will approach the area late Thursday into early
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

A wet midday seems likely for much of the area today as an upper
level short wave tracks across the Mid Atlantic. Have upped PoPs
during from ~10am-3pm but then precip chances will diminish
during the late afternoon, although short range model still
implies scattered showers could develop post-frontal.

SPC continues to maintain maringal risk of severe thunderstorms
east of the mountains. SREF severe probabilities imply the
chances are better across SE VA/NC than in our area, Bufkit
profiles show neither high CAPE nor shear, and this will be
coming through fairly early in the day.

Highs expected to reach the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

High pressure will be building into the area tonight through
Wednesday night. Patchy fog will likely develop tonight with
lows in the upper 40s/lower 50s.

Plenty of sunshine is expected Wednesday. Winds from the north
expected to gust up to 20 mph. Temperatures will top out in the
60s.

And with the high to our north Wednesday night excellent
radational cooling conditions are expected. This will drop
temperatures into the 30s west of I-95.

A warm front is forecast to be well to our south Thursday. Clouds
will be increasing as the day progresses. It will be cool and
dry. Highs in the 50s.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

A low pressure system will be moving out of the Mississippi Valley
eastward into the Ohio Valley Thursday night into Friday morning.
This will send a surge of warm and moist air advection across the
area Thursday night. While best forcing may lift north of the area,
chances for showers will be on the increase Thursday night.

The system will push to the eastern seaboard on Friday. Current
model solutions depict fairly disjointed system, but do show
potential for some consolidation/redevelopment of the surface low
downwind of the strongest upper level energy Friday night. Thus will
see highest chances of organized rainfall from Friday into Friday
night. Temperatures during this time shouldn`t see a whole lot of
diurnal variability with increased clouds/moisture/rain, generally
40s at night, 50s during the day.

The low will pull eastward away from the coast on Saturday. Could
have some lingering showers, but will see a drying trend during the
day. High pressure will build into the region by Sunday with dry
conditions. The next system will eject out of the Plains and may
approach the area early next week.

Highs generally low to mid 60s Saturday through Monday, with lows in
the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR at all sites at the moment but believe light fog could
develop in the pre-dawn hours. An upper level disturbance will
cross the area during the 14-20Z time period. Showers are
expected and isolated thunderstorm will be possible.

VFR conditions expected tonight through Thursday.

Chances for sub-VFR conditions increase by Friday and continue
through Friday night with potential for low ceilings and
visibilities in rain with low pressure system crossing the region.
Conditions will improve through the day on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...

Isolated thunderstorms during the midday hours, especially
possible over the lower Potomac/Ches Bay south of Drum Point.

An SCA has been issued for Wednesday. Northerly winds are
expected to gust to 20 kt.

Potential for Small Craft Advisory conditions increases Thursday
night and Friday with increasing southeasterly winds ahead of an
approaching system. Winds will then turn north/northwesterly on
Saturday behind the system, with continued potential for SCA
conditions.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 4 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/MJM


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