Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 030133
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
933 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BALTIMORE METRO AND WASHINGTON DC
METRO. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AS WELL
AS THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROS THIS EVENING. RECEIVED
MANY REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL INCLUDING TENNIS BALL AND BASEBALL
SIZED HAIL. SEE LSR SUMMARY.

A SFC LOW IS CENTERED OVER NOVA THIS EVENING WHILE A WARM FRONT IS
DRAPED ACROSS NRN MD. HEAVY RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME
AS SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS LACKING AND STORMS HAVE MERGED WITH
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 30 MPH ARE STILL
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT
OUTSIDE ACTIVITY. FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN MONT COUNTY
MD. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EASTWARD...WINDS WILL BECOME NW-N
OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE-TROUGH OVER MISSOURI WILL TRACK EWD WITH
MULTIPLE SFC WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG SLOW MOVING CDFNT.
RAIN/SHOWERS AND MAINLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD OVER
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGHT THE NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TUE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
RANGE FROM HALF INCH ACROSS THE PA BORDER TO OVER AN INCH SOUTH OF
I-66 AND U.S. ROUTE 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED WITH A LULL IN
PRECIP. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS OVER MICHIGAN AND DROPS
SLOWLY SWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. SHOWERS MOVE IN AGAIN WED NIGHT
IN AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND STRONG ASCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY PIVOT EAST
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR
TWO ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS BROAD COLD CORE LOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY...AND SO WILL THE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS THE LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...THE RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY OUT CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRIEFLY...BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH SAGS
INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WON`T BE AS CHILLY SUNDAY.

THE FRONT COULD WORK ITS WAY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL BRING BACK THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUSTY VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY THIS EVENING.
OUTSIDE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND BECOME NRLY OVERNIGHT. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR BY TUE MORNING. SHRA EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AS SFC LOW MOVES OVER WATERS. WINDS WILL BECOME
NRLY BY TUESDAY MORNING.

SMW WILL BE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE EVENING. SHOWERS CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS/LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HAS/LFR/KLW
MARINE...HAS/LFR/KLW


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