Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 031139 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
539 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR TO LOW IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE INTERMITTENT...WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE NORTH. IT
WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING...
WITH -RAPLSN PREVAILING AT HRO AND BPK JUST BEFORE 12Z. TAFS
ALREADY OUT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

DENSE FOG HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 15Z.

WENT AND CUT BACK ON POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY...WITH
MOST MODELS SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A WARM DAY WILL BE ON TAP WITH THE RETURN OF
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S AND 60S STATEWIDE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RAMP UP
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SLIGHTLY BEFORE 06Z.

BEHIND THIS STRONG COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL SEE THEIR WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT.
FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY...WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE RAW GFS AND ECMWF...WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF.
THE NAM APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THIS STRONG
FRONT AND THE FORECAST STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT...DID NOT FEEL
WISE TO USE MOS GUIDANCE. THIS TEMPERATURE CURVE RESULTED IN
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. STILL...EXPECTING TRANSITIONS FROM RAIN TO
WINTRY PRECIPITATION AROUND 12Z IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS...SHORTLY
AFTER 18Z CENTRAL...AND SHORTLY BEFORE 00Z ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

AS FAR AS MODEL TRENDS GO...THE 00Z TUESDAY NAM AND GFS
MODELS...SHOWED TEMPERATURES ALOFT MUCH SLOWER TO COOL...RESULTING
IN MUCH MORE SLEET THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE 00Z ECMWF DID NOT
FOLLOW SUIT REINFORCED PREVIOUS THINKING...THAT AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SLEET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW. WITH STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS...DID NOT WANT TO HAVE A KNEE JERK
REACTION AND FULLY COMMIT TO MOSTLY SLEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS. USING A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS FOR
QPF...THE RESULTANT FORECAST HAS FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW AND
SLEET ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH TWO TO FOUR ACROSS CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...AND ONE TO THREE IN THE SOUTH. SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY SEE MORE FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET...THAN SNOW. IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS DO
EXPECT ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO EXCEED A QUARTER OF AN INCH. AS A
RESULT OF THESE TOTALS...DID ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA BEGINNING 12Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY.

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH STRONG WINDS FORECAST. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL
LIKELY COMPOUND ANY PROBLEMS DUE TO ICING WITH SPORADIC POWER
OUTAGES POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...THE FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE LEFT OVER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY...BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN ON THURSDAY...WITH MOST AREAS STAYING
CLOSE TO OR EVEN BELOW FREEZING. THINGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THIS SHOULD BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO MAYBE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. IF THIS PANS OUT...THIS WOULD MEAN AT LEAST
DAILY RECORD LOWS FOR QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THERE COULD BE A FEW PLACES THAT COME WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
ALL-TIME RECORD LOWS FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH.

THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO
BE DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. HOWEVER...READINGS WILL
LARGELY REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

CLIMATE...
AS DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM PORTION...DAILY RECORD LOWS ON MARCH
6TH WILL LIKELY BE IN JEOPARDY. HERE/S A LIST OF SOME...

 STATION             RECORD LOW 3/6
 MOUNTAIN HOME          9 1920
 BRINKLEY              10 1899
 CALICO ROCK           11 1978
 CONWAY                11 1901
 HARDY                 12 1901
 NEWPORT               14 1901
 GILBERT               16 1980
 MENA                  17 1899
 MOUNT IDA             17 1920
 RUSSELLVILLE          17 1901
 BATESVILLE AIRPORT    18 1943
 MONTICELLO            18 1978
 STUTTGART             18 1960
 BOONEVILLE            19 1989
 LITTLE ROCK           19 1899
 PINE BLUFF            19 1920
 ARKADELPHIA           20 1943
 SHERIDAN              20 1962
 CAMDEN                21 1899
 SEARCY                22 2014
 NORTH LITTLE ROCK     24 1989
 JACKSONVILLE          26 1966
 STAR CITY             26 2014

THERE WILL LIKELY SOME LOCATIONS THAT COME WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
ALL-TIME RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH. THOSE ARE LISTED BELOW...

STATION               ALL-TIME MARCH RECORD LOW
CONWAY                     9 03/03/1943
BRINKLEY                  10 03/06/1899
LITTLE ROCK               11 03/03/1943
MONTICELLO                11 03/03/1980
PINE BLUFF                11 03/09/1932
JACKSONVILLE              12 03/09/1996
NORTH LITTLE ROCK         14 03/03/2014
STAR CIY                  16 03/03/1980

THIS SEVERE COLD OUTBREAK...WHILE CERTAINLY NOTEABLE...DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE AS WIDESPREAD...OR AS PROLONGED AS THE ONE AT THE
BEGINNING OF LAST MARCH.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     56  40  40  15 /  30  70  90  60
CAMDEN AR         66  60  60  24 /  30  40  90  80
HARRISON AR       58  30  30  10 /  30  50  90  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    60  50  50  21 /  30  70  90  80
LITTLE ROCK   AR  62  49  49  20 /  30  70  90  70
MONTICELLO AR     66  61  61  23 /  30  30  90  80
MOUNT IDA AR      61  48  48  20 /  30  70  90  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  58  32  32  11 /  30  50  90  50
NEWPORT AR        58  41  41  17 /  30  70  90  70
PINE BLUFF AR     65  56  56  21 /  30  50  90  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   58  43  43  16 /  30  60  90  60
SEARCY AR         59  45  45  18 /  30  80  90  60
STUTTGART AR      61  49  49  20 /  30  70 100  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BAXTER-BOONE-CLEBURNE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-
JOHNSON-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR ARKANSAS-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-
PERRY-PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-YELL.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-DESHA-DREW-OUACHITA.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57



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