Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 210807
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
207 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAVE FINALLY BEEN SEEN FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AS OF THIS PAST SAT AFTERNOON...AND HAVE PERSISTED INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HRS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE WRN AND NWRN PARTS OF
THE CWA ARE STILL SEEING PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. NOT EXPECTING A
WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE THROUGH THIS SUN REGARDING OVERALL CLOUD COVER
AS LOCATIONS ACROSS NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY REMAIN GENERALLY
CLOUDY. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE THROUGH
THE DAY...THOUGH WILL LIKELY START TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.

FLOW ALOFT WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SW OVER THE REGION ...BUT WILL
BEGIN TO SEE SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT LIFT OVER THE STATE BY
THIS EVENING INTO MON. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER...AS WELL AS ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE SOME DZ OR SPRINKLES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A TROUGH TO THE WEST AND NW OF THE STATE WILL
BEGIN DEEPENING ON MON...WITH SRLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION
AS SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS TX AND STARTS LIFTING TOWARDS
AR. AS A RESULT...START INCREASING POPS ON MON AND ESPECIALLY MON
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...AND SFC LOW LIFTS NE
ACROSS SERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SFC LOW WILL THEN DROP SE ACROSS THE STATE ON TUE...WITH MUCH COLDER
AIR MOVING INTO AR.

TUE HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE EARLY IN THE DAY AS THE FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE STATE BY MIDDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE TEMPS
DROPPING FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUE...WITH THE
ONLY EXCEPTION PROBABLY BEING SERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE THE
FRONT WILL BE LAST TO MOVE THROUGH. INITIALLY...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
50S LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS DROP INTO
THE 30S BY TUE EVENING ACROSS NWRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF AR WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN...AND POTENTIALLY BECOME CLOSED OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER FLOW.
THIS SETUP WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE COOLING TREND FOR TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...AS WELL AS PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY FOR ANOTHER WAVE
OF PRECIP.

DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR INTRUSION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING...AND THE EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...THERE
LOOKS TO BE SOME INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME BRIEF
SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS ONE WOULD EXPECT...THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR...AND
WHAT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN...AS WELL AS THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS UPPER
LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE RECENT TREND TO HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS...STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING...AND COLDER
TEMPS...HAVE STARTED TO INTRODUCE A BIT HIGHER CHANCE FOR SOME
WINTRY PRECIP TUE NIGHT INTO WED. WHILE THE OVERALL TEMP PROFILE
WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY ALL SNOW...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP A
SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER NEAR THE SFC. THIS WOULD TEND TO SUGGEST A
COLD RAIN...MIXING WITH SOME VERY WET SNOW. AS A RESULT...ONLY
MENTION LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH FOR STORM TOTAL.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES MENTIONED ABOVE HOWEVER...THESE AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEW DATA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS WILL DEFINITELY DIMINISH SOME OF
THE UNCERTAINTIES MENTIONED ABOVE...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE STORM
SYSTEM THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE BETTER
SAMPLED BY OBSERVED DATA AS IT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AS ALWAYS...REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND DATA IN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS CHANGES IN THE STORM LOCATION AND STRENGTH COULD
RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR THE CHRISTMAS EVE TRAVEL.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL COME BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH
READINGS WARMING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THE HIGH
WILL HEAD EAST BY FRIDAY...WITH RAIN COMING BACK INTO THE FORECAST
AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH ARKANSAS. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA
BY EARLY SATURDAY...WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR FOLLOWING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     50  39  54  46 /  10  10  30  50
CAMDEN AR         57  43  61  53 /  10  10  20  50
HARRISON AR       48  38  53  40 /  10  10  30  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    54  42  57  47 /  10  10  20  50
LITTLE ROCK   AR  53  41  57  50 /  10  10  20  50
MONTICELLO AR     56  44  61  56 /  10  10  20  50
MOUNT IDA AR      53  43  56  45 /  10  10  20  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  49  39  54  42 /  10  10  30  50
NEWPORT AR        51  39  55  48 /  10  10  20  50
PINE BLUFF AR     54  41  59  53 /  10  10  20  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   53  41  56  45 /  10  10  30  50
SEARCY AR         51  38  55  48 /  10  10  20  50
STUTTGART AR      53  40  58  51 /  10  10  20  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...57





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