Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 200508
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1108 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

.AVIATION...

Low level moisture continue to advance over the state from the
south as southerly winds strengthen. VFR to occasional MVFR
ceilings over central and southern sections will become IFR during
the overnight hours. VFR conditions over the north will also
deteriorate as the moisture streams in. Patchy DZ is also
expected to develop towards morning. Low clouds will persist
through most of the daylight hours with ceilings increasing late
in the TAF period. South to southeast winds will prevail.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 247 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday Night

Low clouds continue to lift NE over SRN and portions of central AR
early this afternoon...keeping temps in the 30s and 40s so far.
Further north...SW winds and a sunny sky have allowed temps to warm
into the 40s and even some 50s. These clouds will continue through
this afternoon across central and SRN AR...with some occasional
breaks.

Overnight...cloud cover will continue...and even spread further
north to encompass most of the CWA by Sat morning. These clouds and a
SRLY breezy will keep temps above freezing for most areas...likely
in the mid 30s to mid 40s for lows. Some patchy fog and DZ may be
seen near sunrise as moisture levels begin to rise. Expect a warm
front to lift north over the CWA by Sat afternoon...with continued
chances for some sprinkles...DZ or light rain. This trend of
increasing moisture will continue Sat night into early Sun...with
primarily some spotty rain or DZ possible. With the warm front
lifting north Sat afternoon into Sat night...expect temps to hold
nearly steady or even increase Sat night into Sun morning...with
temps in the upper 40s to mid 50s by sunrise Sun.

Breezy SRLY winds will be seen for Sun afternoon and evening as the
pressure gradient tightens with the strengthening SFC low to the
west of AR. An upper level shortwave trough will exit the Rockies
Sun afternoon...and lift ENE into NE KS by late Sun night. SFC low
pressure will continue to strengthen as this happens...with a
trailing cold front surging east through the state Sun night into
early Mon morning.

Expect scattered to numerous SHRA and TSRA to develop along a
prefrontal SFC trough over ERN OK late Sun afternoon into early Sun
evening...with convection becoming more widespread Sun night as this
activity shifts east into central sections of the state around
midnight Mon morning. Expect this activity to shift east of the
state by around sunrise Mon morning...with drier air moving into the
state.

At this time...there looks to be some potential for a few strong to
possibly SVR storms Sun evening into early Mon morning across at
least some portion of the CWA. Forecast SHR values look impressive
Sun evening along/ahead of the main line of convection as the LLJ
intensifies. MU CAPE values will be the limiting factor...along with
time of day. However...damaging winds will be possible with the
strongest storms given the wind energy expected. Low level SRH
values also indicate some potential for weak...brief tornadoes along
the leading edge of the convection. However...forecast soundings
still indicate a bit of a near SFC inversion...which may limit this
tornado potential. As a result...will continue to emphasize damaging
winds as the primary threat...but will need to keep a close eye on
the QLCS tornado threat if the convection along the leading edge of
the convection can become more SFC based. Given the lack of CAPE in
the hail growth zone...expect the hail threat to be limited.

LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday

Model solutions remain in good agreement today with overall fcst
solutions next week. Kept a slight chance of rain in the far Ern
part of the FA early Mon morning as the CDFNT works E of the state.
Clouds wl be quickly clearing out on Mon, but N AR could see some
wrap-around clouds Mon aftn.

Sfc high pres wl usher in cooler Pacific airmass thereafter, with
temps staying close to or even a bit abv seasonal norms. A weak
front wl pass thru AR Wed ngt/early Thu with a reinforcing shot of
drier air. Progressive upr flow wl force the assocd sfc high quickly
Ewd later in the week, allowing milder S/SE wind flow to eventually
return to the region. Early indications of a new storm system
affecting the Mid-South just beyond this fcst PD.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...56


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