Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 030547
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1247 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING BY EARLY
MORNING...MAINLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. IFR
AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FOG. AFTER THE FOG
DISSIPATES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

AVIATION...

THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY THAT IS ONGOING EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING. SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT SAW RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON. SOME VERY ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THU...BUT COVERAGE TOO ISOLATED TO
MENTIONED IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF CONVECTION IN
THE AFTERNOONS TO EARLY EVENINGS...ALBEIT OVERALL LOWERING
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. LITTLE
TO NO SEVERE STORM RISK. OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AGAIN DID STREAMED IN OVER SE AR FROM THE
SOUTH DUE TO CONVECTION OVER THE TX AND LA GULF COAST. THESE
CLOUDS HAVE THINNED AND HAD MINIMAL AFFECT ON TEMPS. AFTERNOON
TEMPS WERE FROM THE UPPER 80S IN THE NORTH...TO THE 90S CENTRAL
AND SOUTH. THIS AFTERNOON A BIT MORE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED THAN
TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OVER SOUTHERN AR WITH
MORE ISOLATED IN CENTRAL TO EASTERN AR. THIS IS STILL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEAK UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...AND WITH
SOME HEAT...MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINING. CONVECTION
WILL BE ON GOING THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN AFTER SUNSET...ALL
SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATED.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

EVENING CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET...WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR TO ARES OF
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE SEEN...WITH SOME POSSIBLE PATCHY
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAD RAIN. THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. HOWEVER...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE SEEN IN THE AFTERNOON
TO EVENINGS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH AN OVERALL LOWERING INTO
THE WEEKEND...BUT AN ISOLATED STORM WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY WARM INTO THE WEEKEND...AND REACH MORE LOW TO MID 90S
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS TO START THE
PERIOD...WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEAST THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND
MISSOURI AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST INITIALLY. HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY WILL KNOCK THE RIDGE DOWN A LITTLE LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH
AND FURTHER FLATTEN THE RIDGE BY MIDWEEK.

WHILE THE RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE TO START THE
PERIOD...SOME CHANGES ARE COMING. THE FIRST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVES WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
PLAINS ON MONDAY...WITH THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE PUSHING A FRONT INTO
THE STATE FROM THE NORTH SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF ON THE WARM SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
90S OR SO ON SUNDAY...BUT WILL GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEK AS
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     94  70  94  71 /  10   0  10   0
CAMDEN AR         95  72  96  73 /  20  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       90  68  90  69 /  10   0  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    94  72  95  73 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  95  72  95  73 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     96  73  96  73 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      93  70  94  71 /  10   0  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  93  69  92  70 /  10   0  10   0
NEWPORT AR        94  71  94  71 /  10   0  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     95  72  95  73 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   95  71  94  72 /  10   0  10   0
SEARCY AR         94  70  95  72 /  10  10  10   0
STUTTGART AR      94  72  95  73 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51



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