Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 261146 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
645 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017


VFR flight conditions with patchy MVFR conditions will be seen to
start the forecast. Isolated IFR conditions may also develop early
this morning. To the west, an area of showers and isolated
thunderstorms will slowly move east, and mainly affect KHRO and KBPK
this morning. Winds will be southeast to southwest at 10 to 20 mph
with some possible higher gusts. Later today, a cold front and upper
weather system are expected to move through the area, and a line of
strong to possibly severe thunderstorms will be seen with strong
gusty winds, low ceilings and a wind shift to the northwest behind
the cold front. The showers and thunderstorms will affect all Tafs
today. (59)


.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 409 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017/

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are severe storm chances
today, then again Friday and over the weekend. Possible heavy rain
potential with flooding of some rivers and possible flash
flooding. Also elevated surface winds today will prompt a lake
wind advisory being issued.

Current area of convection, with a few strong storms noted,
continues to move east northeast and slowly weaken. Earlier over
OK, did see more wind and hail reports from severe storms. It is
expected this area will gradually weaken and dissipate this
morning over northern AR. To the west, a cold front was over
central OK to northern MO, and this front and upper shortwave
system will move through AR later today and tonight, and bring the
potential for severe storms to much of AR. Early morning
temperatures were from the 50s north and the rain was, to the 60s
to 70s over central and southern areas. Dewpoint temperatures were
from the upper 50s north, 60s central and south. Precip water
values were well over an inch. The Storm Prediction Center has
much of AR in a Slight to Enhance severe storm threat today, as
well as a Moderate risk over southern areas. Factors are coming
together for a possible significant severe storm threat,
especially over southern AR where the risk of severe storms may be
the greatest.


.SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night

The forecast will start with the early morning threat of an
isolated severe storm in northwest AR with likely to cat showers
and thunderstorms. As the day progresses, the cold front and upper
storm system will move into the through AR later tonight. Plenty
of lift, moisture and instability will be present over AR, for the
development of thunderstorms, with the potential for severe
storms. The overall scenario appears to be a line of strong to
severe storms to develop along or just ahead of the cold front,
matching with the main upper lift. Damaging winds and large hail
would be the primary threats, with a possible tornado along the
leading edge. Forecast models are not showing a high potential for
individual storms out ahead of the front, which could become
tornadic sooner and possibly develop to a stronger tornado threat
over southern to southeast AR. This will have to be monitored
closely through the day. Otherwise, rain amounts will be from
around half an inch to over an inch, with a fews spots seeing over
2 inches. This could lead to some flash flooding and additional
river flooding in some locations. Models project the storms to
push out of AR around mid-night, then surface high pressure will
build in behind the front. A dry weather forecast on Thursday as
the surface high moves across the region. Late Thursday night into
Friday, the next upper shortwave approaches northwest AR, and a
chance of convection is back in the forecast. Otherwise,
temperatures will be around normal values to a bit above normal
today and Thursday.


.LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday

Upper low pressure will be over the northern Great Lakes to begin
the long term period. An upper low develops over the Rockies on
Friday with southwest flow over Arkansas. This low drops south
into New Mexico and Texas Saturday before ejecting northeast
Sunday. Northwest flow returns to Arkansas on Monday. Weak ridging
develops over Arkansas Tuesday.

A warm front is expected to be over north Arkansas Friday with the
next cold front across Oklahoma and Texas. Little movement of the
cold front is anticipated through Saturday but will move through
Arkansas early Sunday. Severe thunderstorms are expected with this
front and heavy rainfall will result from the slow movement of the
front. Good rain chances are expected Friday and Saturday then will
decrease on Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure will return for
Monday with dry conditions. A weak short wave moving through the
area Tuesday will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures will be above normal Friday and Saturday, otherwise
they will be near to below normal.


Batesville AR     73  48  69  56 /  70  80  10  20
Camden AR         80  49  76  59 /  80  60  10  10
Harrison AR       69  43  68  55 /  90  60  10  40
Hot Springs AR    76  47  73  58 /  80  50  10  20
Little Rock   AR  77  50  72  57 /  80  70  10  20
Monticello AR     80  52  76  60 /  50  80  10  10
Mount Ida AR      74  45  72  58 /  80  40  10  20
Mountain Home AR  71  45  69  54 /  80  70  10  40
Newport AR        75  51  70  56 /  60  80  10  20
Pine Bluff AR     78  51  74  58 /  70  80  10  10
Russellville AR   74  46  72  56 /  90  50  10  30
Searcy AR         75  49  71  55 /  80  80  10  20
Stuttgart AR      78  52  73  58 /  70  80  10  10

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Lake Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-
Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-



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