Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 171058 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
558 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK
FRONT...POSITIONED JUST NORTHWEST OF ARKANSAS AS OF 11Z...WILL MOVE
INTO THE STATE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST BEHIND IT...GENERALLY LESS
THAN 7KT IN BOTH CASES. SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROM
MENTIONING IN THE TAFS. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS AT KLLQ WHERE DID GO
AHEAD AND INCLUDE VCSH AFTER 00Z...THOUGH STOPPED SHORT OF
PREVAILING OR TEMPO -SHRA.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION...AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM...BUT WITH SOME UPPER SUPPORT PRESENT...IT DOES AT LEAST
WARRANT SMALL PRECIP CHANCES.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH THE AREA
FAIRLY QUICKLY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY...OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STRONGER FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN
THE LONG TERM PERIODS...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LIMITED RAIN CHANCES TO ABOUT 40 PERCENT FOR NOW...BUT THAT IS MORE
TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE TIMING CHANGES AS NEXT WEEKEND DRAWS NEAR.
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD CLEAR TO THE EAST
BY MIDDAY FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY WARM DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AMPLIFIES AND STRONG RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. AFTER HIGHS IN THE LOW
70S ON MONDAY...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE
LOW 80S.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...64/57





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