Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 241134 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
630 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017

.AVIATION...

VFR flight conditions will be seen through the period. The main
concern will be elevated winds across AR as a cold front moves
through the region. Winds will start northwest at 5 to 15 mph with
gusts to around 20 mph. Through today, northwest winds will increase
to 10 to 25 mph with gusts reaching around 30 mph. Winds are
expected to subside after sunset. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 321 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017/

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are elevated winds over AR
behind a cold front which will lead to a lake wind advisory.
Wildfire danger remains up due to lower RH values, elevated winds
and dry fuel moisture levels. Then later in the week, the next
cold front with possible rain chances, then the coldest air of the
Fall season over AR.

Currently, clear and chilly weather conditions are seen this early
morning, with temps in the 50s while dew point temps in the 30s to
40s. A northwest wind was bringing in additional dry air and
elevated winds after sunrise Tuesday. A lake wind advisory will be
in effect from much of AR today due to the elevated winds. Also
will issue a fire danger statement for today, due to the elevated
winds, minimum RH values in the afternoon and the fuel moisture
levels drying out again with the elevated winds. Aloft, the deep
upper low pressure trough was from the central to eastern U.S.
which is allowing the cold air filter into the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday Night

Mostly sunny with breezy, to at times windy, conditions will be
seen today as additional cold air and elevated northwest winds
will be seen behind the surge of colder air. A lake wind advisory
will be in effect, as well as a fire danger statement will be
issued. Highs will only reach the 60s to lower 70s north, to mid
and upper 70s south. Colder temps tonight under clear skies, as
lows drop to the 30s over much of AR, about 10 to 15 degrees
below normal values. Only patchy frost may be seen, while the
atmosphere may be too dry for much to form and with winds still up
a bit. Continued mostly sunny on Wednesday with highs remaining
cooler than normal, with 50s north and 60s elsewhere. Winds are
expected to lower Tuesday night and Wednesday, while remaining a
bit elevated, but below lake wind advisory levels. Chilly
Wednesday night, with lows mainly in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...Thursday Through Monday

SRLY flow will be returning at the start of the long term period
as SFC high pressure moves SE of the state. These SRLY winds will
allow temps to warm back to near normal for Thu afternoon.
However...this warm-up will be short lived as a new cold front
dives SE into the state by Fri morning. The window for moisture
return still looks limited ahead of this front...but there may be
enough moisture available as the front moves through AR to see
some scattered SHRA and a few TSRA on Fri into Fri night. The
latest med-range model guidance has come back with a bit more
available moisture compared to the guidance from this time
yesterday. As a result...have increased POPs a bit higher...but
remain in the chance category for now given the previous model
trends. If this higher moisture trend continues...will likely see
POPs increase accordingly.

By Sat morning...the front will be SE of the state...with Arctic
high pressure diving south into the region. Some of the coldest air
of the season will likely be seen for the weekend...with lows for
many areas dropping to near or even below freezing. Will have to
address this scenario in the coming days with frost or freeze
headlines if this trend continues.

By the end of the forecast...SFC flow looks to transition back to a
more SRLY direction...with temps starting to increase. Dry
conditions will continue...with below normal temps expected to
persist at least for portion of early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     60  39  66  46 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         68  40  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       57  37  64  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    64  40  67  46 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  66  40  67  46 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     67  41  67  46 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      63  37  67  45 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  58  38  65  45 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        62  37  66  45 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     66  39  67  45 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   63  39  66  44 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         63  37  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      66  39  66  44 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-
Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-
Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-
Logan-Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-
Polk-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van
Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.

&&

$$

Short Term...59 / Long Term...62


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