Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
FXUS64 KLZK 271145
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
645 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016
Convection continues across both northwest and south central
Arkansas at this time. An upper level low will move across the
Mississippi Delta today with showers and thunderstorm increasing
in coverage, especially in the afternoon. Widespread vfr
conditions are expected except in and near convection where MVFR
conditions are expected. IFR conditions exist at both KHRO and
KBPK due to fog but will improve by 14Z. Light southerly winds
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 347 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016)
Short Term...Today through Thursday night
Forecast definitely looking a bit more unsettled this morning with
at least decent rain chances for a large part of the CWA. The area
currently lies between two anticyclones, one centered over the four
corners and the other over the southeast conus. In between these two
features is a compact upper low, currently shown by moisture channel
imagery to be located near Monroe Louisiana.
Models all in good agreement that this feature will drift/wobble
slowly to the north/northeast and be located near West Memphis by
Thursday morning before exiting the area by the end of the period.
Meanwhile, a weak frontal boundary remains stretched out along the
Arkansas/Missouri border but is expected to lift to the north
through the period.
Models all showing showers and thunderstorms becoming widespread as
the day progresses, especially over the east and southeast along the
path of the aforementioned upper low. With the area cut off from any
type of prevailing flow and PWATS approaching 2.5 inches, convection
will be slow to move and locally heavy rain remains a distinct
possibility. With feature moving through, scattered precipitation
chances will be carried tonight and into early Thursday.
This upper low will be kicked out of the region late in the day as
upper flow becomes mores northwest in nature and the low gets caught
up in a developing upper trough. As such, another round of mainly
diurnally driven convection is expected late Thursday.
No heat related headlines are expected today or Thursday as cloud
cover and rain chances preclude the need for another heat advisory.
Long Term...Friday through Tuesday
The long term period will begin with high pressure aloft over the
Four Corners area and southeast U.S. For Friday and Saturday there
will be a weak upper level trough over the midwest and plains. With
Arkansas being between the two highs, and a weak stationary front
near north Arkansas, expect unsettled weather and better rain
chances Friday and Saturday. This should lead to MCSs moving through
the state. The models show the upper ridge building over the mid
south Sunday and Monday. This would put the storm track north of
Arkansas for late in the weekend into next week...resulting in lower
rain chances and warmer temperatures...even into Tuesday.
Slightly cooler temperatures are expected for late week and into the
weekend. Without being directly beneath either ridge, temperatures
will be closer to normal values, or even cooler, with more cloud
cover. Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the mid 80s to lower
90s...then low to mid 90s Sunday through Tuesday. Lows will be in
the lower to mid 70s.