Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 301131
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
631 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...

HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ALONG AND EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LITTLE ROCKS 00Z SOUNDING MEASURED NEARLY
1.50 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER. DUAL POL INSTANTANEOUS PRECIPITATION
RATES ARE UP TO 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR. FLOODING IS LIKELY IN EAST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS...ALTHOUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING REPORTS HAVE
NOT BEEN ABUNDANT. HIGH RES SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING...BUT 2-4 ADDITIONAL
INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY.

A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTH MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS
TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH MISSOURI AND
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE WEST. ONCE
THE FRONT PASSES...WE SHOULD SEE AN END TO THE ADVERSE
WEATHER...BUT UNTIL THEN IT MIGHT BE A GOOD IDEA TO JUST ENJOY A
SATURDAY INDOORS. SPC HAS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FEEL CONFIDENT THAT ONGOING CONVECTION
WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND RESULTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. STRONG STORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAIN AND LOTS OF
LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SHIFT ZONAL LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS
A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL
FINALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE EXCEPTION BEING
FAR EASTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 70S DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL.
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES...AND IF FRIDAY WAS ANY
INDICATION OF WHAT TODAY MAY BRING...I STILL MAY BE TOO WARM.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER.

A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
MIDSOUTH MONDAY. SHOWERS MAY LINGER FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. SOME OF THE COOLEST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY DIP INTO
THE 40S TUESDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE
60S AREA WIDE MONDAY...TRENDING A FEW DEGREES WARMER EACH DAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

ZONAL FLOW WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY MIDWEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE
BUILDS OUT WEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOKS MARGINAL...SO MOISTURE
FOR RAIN SHOULD BE LIMITED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

A LINE OF TSRA WITH MORE STRATIFORM SHRA BEHIND IS NOW JUST EAST
OF THE MS RIVER...THUS BEGIN THE CYCLE WITH VCTS OR VCSH AT ALL
BUT KTUP. INCLUDED TEMPO FOR TSRA OR RA WITH MVFR CAT CIGS AND
VSBYS AT THESE SAME TERMINALS THROUGH LATE MORNING. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ANOTHER LINE OF TSRA DEVELOPING THIS EVENING SO HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS FOR THIS EVENING BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING
TIMING. SOUTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT OR JUST UNDER 10 KTS BY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES BEFORE SUBSIDING AFTER SUNSET.

ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-
     CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR COAHOMA-
     DESOTO-TUNICA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$



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