Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 051354
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
754 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO CANCEL WINTER STORM WARNING ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR TRENDS INDICATING BACK EDGE OF SNOW EXITING THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY...WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS STILL EXPECTED IN AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THROUGH NOON.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR REDUCED FREEZING RAIN/ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

DISCUSSION...

SUBFREEZING AIR HAS FINALLY REACHED ALL THE COUNITES IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI THIS PAST HOUR WITH VERY PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING
RAIN. MOST REPORTS COMING IN HAVE BEEN SLEET SINCE MIDNIGHT...WITH
OXFORD ALREADY PICKING UP AN INCH. HAVE REDUCED THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT FOR THIS REGION AND HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE SNOW AND
SLEET TOTALS FOR THIS MORNING.

ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH ONLY FLURRIES REMAINING POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID MORNING.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY ALL THE PRECIPITATION ON RADAR WAS OF A WINTER
TYPE...WITH SCATTERED AREAS RECEIVING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OR
SLEET. ONLY MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI WAS SEEING A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD BETWEEN THE RAIN AND THE APPROACHING WINTER WEATHER. SNOW
TOTALS HAVE EXCEEDED EVENING FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA...SO HAVE UPDATED NEW TOTALS TO 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE I-40
CORRIDOR TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 9 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. NOT SEEING AS MUCH FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...WITH THE CHANGEOVER COMING IN AS SLEET AND SNOW. SO
MAY HAVE TO UPDATE AGAIN BY SUNRISE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. HAVE
NOT CHANGED THE TIMING OF THE WSW TO END THE STORM EARLY...AS LZK
RADAR RETURNS SHOWS SNOW STILL TO THE WEST...AND IR SATELLITE
SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE WAA CONVEYOR BELT IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 9 AM AS
MODELS KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT ALONG...AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BY THE
OFFICE...WITH ADDITIONAL OUTAGES LIKELY THROUGH MID MORNING.

LATER TODAY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT APPEARS
THAT CLOUDS WILL EXIT PRETTY FAST FROM LATEST UPSTREAM SATELLITE
TRENDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING THIS EVENING AS
WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 MPH. HAVE ISSUED A WINDCHILL ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA STARTING AT MIDNIGHT AS
VALUES DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

THIS WEEKEND...THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER WILL RESIDE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY SKIES WILL PROVIDE TWO GOOD DAYS OF MELTING. OF COURSE THAT
PROCESS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ON FRIDAY...AND IN THE 30S AND 40S
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
EXPECTED LOWS A GOOD 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. A SECOND
WINDCHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINSHOWERS
ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL RUN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY..WITH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MOST FAVORED.
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME FRAME WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (05/12Z-06/12Z)

WINTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL GRADUALLY END
FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. WILL BEGIN THE KJBR TAF PRECIPITATION
FREE (EXCEPT FOR TEMPO 6SM -SN TIL 13Z) WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON.
LIFR / IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AT KMEM AND KMKL IMPROVING TO MVFR
AROUND 14Z WITH SNOW GRADUALLY ENDING. KMEM BECOMING VFR AFTER 18Z
EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS
LINGERING AT KMKL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING VFR. KTUP WILL
HAVE SLEET AND SNOW THIS MORNING WITH IFR / LIFR CONDITIONS. SLEET
AND SNOW ENDING AT KTUP AROUND 18Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN VFR TONIGHT. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
TODAY...DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-DESOTO-MARSHALL-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-
     MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-
     UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
     GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
     HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY.

&&

$$



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