Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
FXUS64 KMEG 281538
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1038 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016
.DISCUSSION...Water Vapor satellite trends this morning place an
upper level low near Omaha and a subtle but weak 700 mb shortwave
trough located near Jackson, MS. Skies are partly sunny this
morning with temperatures as of 10 am CDT in the 70s at most
Latest short term model trends suggest best chances for
isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms will be predominantly
east of the Mississippi River this afternoon. Will make some
adjustments to pops and temperatures to account for short term
trends. Otherwise, forecast overall is in great shape.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 629 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/
Updated for 12z Aviation Discussion.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/
Currently...500 mb low is centered over Nebraska with upper ridge
over the Southeast U.S. A weak shortwave is moving through the
Mid-South but the airmass has stabilized and just a few showers
are occurring. Skies are mostly cloudy and temps range from the
upper 60s to lower 70s.
Today through Monday...The upper low will track northeast toward
the Upper Mississippi Valley. Upper level heights will rise and
moisture advection into the region will weaken. Precipitable water
values will start to drop today. Expect the coverage of showers
and thunderstorms will be less than previous days along and west
of the Mississippi River. Areas toward the TN River and Northeast
Mississippi which have been relatively dry for the past few days
will stand a slightly better chance of seeing rain today as the
axis of deeper moisture shifts southeast. Some sunshine will mean
more instability this afternoon...especially along and west of the
Mississippi River...so a few strong storms with gusty winds are
possible. Any convection will dissipate with loss of heating this
evening followed by clearing skies and lows in the 60s. Sunday and
Monday look like a diurnal convection days with no disturbances to
key off of. Expect mainly isolated afternoon storms and temps in
the upper 80s. Sunday night should be quiet and mild with lows in
the mid and upper 60s.
Tuesday through Friday...Toward the middle of the week medium
range models have a mid level trough moving through the plains
with disturbances starting to move through the Mid-South. As a
result shower and thunderstorm coverage will start to increase. A
few strong storms are possible. Expect warm and humid conditions
to continue with highs in the 80s and lows in the mid and upper
60s. Trough axis and cold front will push through the Mid-South
Thursday/Friday time frame with chances for showers and
thunderstorms and cooler temps.
VFR for most of the period...with the exception of tempo thunder
at MKL and TUP along with light fog late. For now have left just
a threat for passing showers at MEM...but a rumble of thunder is
possible. Winds will become southeast through south at 7-12 kts.
Clearing skies...along with diminishing winds this evening.