Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 210902

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
302 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...Surface analysis early this morning places a cold
front from the Upper Midwest back through the Northern Plains
while a ridge of high pressure is centered over North Carolina.
Water Vapor satellite trends indicate some high clouds moving
across the Lower Mississippi Valley this morning. This is
associated with an upper level trough axis located across the
region and upper level ridges over both the Western and Eastern
United States. Southerly winds on the back side of high pressure
are resulting in slightly warmer temperatures than Monday
morning. As of 3 AM CST, temperatures across the Mid South are in
the 30s to lower 40s with the warmest temperatures occurring
mainly along and west of the Mississippi River.

A cold front over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest will move
south into the Lower Mississippi Valley late this afternoon into
this evening. Short term model soundings indicate some mid level
moisture to produce some clouds but remain relatively too dry to
support precipitation. Consequently, this front should pass
through the Mid South mainly precipitation free. Highs today
will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s with lows tonight in
the 30s.

High pressure will build in behind the front with the region
remaining under Northwest flow aloft but remain mainly rain free
through Friday. Temperatures for Wednesday and Thanksgiving day
will be cooler with highs in the middle 40s to lower 50s for
Wednesday and 50s on Thanksgiving Day.

Latest long term model solutions indicate another weak cold front
embedded within northwest flow aloft will move through the
Mississippi Valley Friday night but precipitation chances are not
anticipated with this second front. At this time it appears the
best chance for any precipitation may come next Tuesday as
another front moves through the region.




VFR. South winds 5 kts or less overnight increasing to 6-10 kts
Tuesday morning. A cold front will move through Tuesday evening
with light winds becoming north and increasing toward the end of
the period.




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