Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 302042
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
342 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
THIS AFTERNOON PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MINNESOTA WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BACK THROUGH
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM CONVEYOR BELT
OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS PRODUCED PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S
TODAY. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAVE
RESULTED IN GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOST OF THE MID SOUTH WITH MUCH NEEDED RAIN. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM
CDT VARY ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
READINGS IN THE 70S WHERE RAIN HAS OCCURRED ALREADY AND LOWER 80S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
IS THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST.

.SHORT TIME...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH CHANCES GRADUALLY DECREASING LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S ON SUNDAY AND 80S TO LOWER 90S ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...12Z GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY BUT NOW SUGGEST A
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE MID SOUTH TUESDAY AND MEANDER
BACK NORTH BY WEDNESDAY. CONSEQUENTLY...ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES
UPWARD ACCORDINGLY TO SCATTERED COVERAGE GIVEN THESE TRENDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO THE LOWER 90S AREAWIDE
LATER IN THE WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

A CIRCULATION WAS EVIDENT ON KNQA RADAR IMAGERY...AROUND 50 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MEM AT 1745Z... MOVING NORTHEAST. BEST TS CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS FEATURE. NORTH
MS... INCLUDING TUP... WILL BE UNDER A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MARINE WARM FRONT. MEM WILL BE NEAR THE
NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE BEST AFTERNOON TS POTENTIAL. WILL MONITOR
CONDITIONS CLOSELY AND MAY NEED TO PULL AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TS
FROM THE MEM TAF.

SECOND MIDLEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH MIDSOUTH TERMINALS DURING THE
09Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME. JBR WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LEAST FAVORED
POSITION FOR TS WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE MIDLEVEL WAVE. IN
ANY CASE...MVFR/IFR WILL BE A GOOD BET AREAWIDE...GIVEN A SECONDARY
WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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