Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
943
FXUS64 KMEG 071022
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
422 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS MORNING INDICATE
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING PRESENT
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT IS LOCATED FROM MINNESOTA BACK THROUGH NEBRASKA AND KANSAS.
AS OF 3 AM CST...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FROM
YESTERDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BRING PRECIPITATION FREE
WEATHER TO THE MID SOUTH TODAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
50S. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE MID SOUTH
TONIGHT. SHORT TERM MODELS STILL INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR
THE TENNESSEE RIVER...AND PERHAPS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION BEING JUST NORTH/EAST OF THE MID
SOUTH TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS NORTHERN INDIANA BY MONDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SOMEWHAT BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...MIXING WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MONDAY ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-40...THEN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TOWARDS
MONDAY NIGHT AS COLD ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AT BEST WITH MINIMAL IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE RIVER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TOWARDS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. THE MID SOUTH WILL
REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TOWARDS LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AT 8 KTS
OR GREATER WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD LOWER TO
AROUND 8 KTS AND VEER TO THE WEST SUNDAY EVENING.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.