Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 252138

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
338 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018


A stationary front remains located across Northeast Mississippi
this afternoon. A SFC low has developed along the front in
Southeast Texas. As a result, a large area of rain stretches
across Louisiana into Central Mississippi. This area of rain will
move into North Mississippi and portions of West Tennessee tonight
as the SFC low tracks northeastward along the front. The front
will begin shifting to the south by Monday morning as a shortwave
moves through. Can`t rule out rain lingering into Monday morning
across Northeast Mississippi, but expect dry conditions for the
entire Mid-South by Monday afternoon. Lows will be in the upper
30s to upper 40s. Highs on Monday will be in the lower to mid 60s.

Expect clear skies to occur over the entire area by Monday night
as SFC high pressure will be located over the Ohio Valley. With
the clear skies and light winds, lows will drop into the mid 30s
to lower 40s.

The next chances for rain will begin by Tuesday evening and will
continue into Thursday as several shortwaves move through the
southwest upper flow. In addition, another low pressure system
that will develop across the Southern Plains on Wednesday and will
track northeast into the Ohio Valley by Thursday. As a result,
widespread rain will occur across the entire CWA. Total rainfall
amounts of 1-4 inches with isolated higher amounts can be
expected. With ongoing river flooding and a lot of standing water
remaining in ditches and low-lying areas, a flood watch will
likely be needed for the Tuesday Night through Thursday time
frame. Meanwhile, chances for strong to severe storms may occur
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday Night as the SFC low tracks in
the vicinity of the area with the trailing cold front expected to
move through the region Wednesday Night. However, there remains a
lot of Uncertainty as the severity of the storms will depend on
how much instability there is as abundant cloud cover may limit
it. Stay tuned.

High pressure will build into the region behind the system on
Friday and for the first time in a long time it looks like the
Mid-South may experience a dry weekend. Temperatures will be near
normal with highs ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s.




12Z TAF cycle

VFR conds will continue until this evening. A system will track
south of the region and spread low clouds and rain back into parts
of the Mid-South. MVFR conds will spread north into the KMEM-KMKL
corridor by 26/02z and continue through most of the overnight.
Steady rain will move into the KTUP area by early evening with IFR
conds developing overnight. Clouds will gradually clear out of
KMEM/KMKL late tonight and KTUP by mid morning Sunday. Winds will
be light from the NE during the period.




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