Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 221527

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1127 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016


North northwesterly winds and a dry and stable air mass prevail
across the region. Other than updating the short term winds across
Lake Okeechobee for the marine forecast, forecast remains on track
and no other changes required.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 744 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016/


Generally north northwesterly winds around 7 to 10 knots are
expected to continue across the region today. For terminal KAPF,
an off shore land breeze this morning will transition to north
northwesterly late morning to early afternoon. For the Atlantic
coast terminals, generally north northwesterly winds around 7 to
10 knots are expected. Around 00z this evening, model guidance
suggests regional winds becoming northerly, but an off shore land
breeze is expected to prevail all terminals after 00z. Generally
dry and VFR conditions expected through the forecast period.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 415 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016/

Short term (Today-Monday)...models depict increasing high
pressure centered over the SE states while a dry and cool air mass
remains across South Florida in the wake of a FROPA. Latest MFL
sounding shows a very dry atmospheric profile aloft and a
generally stable air mass over the area. This will translate in
partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies and little to no rain during
the short term, although a couple of brief light showers are

Expect temperatures to cool down a little with afternoon highs
remaining 3 to 5 degrees below normals, while morning lows drop
into the mid to upper 50s over the interior/Gulf areas, and into
the mid 60s along the immediate east coast.

The northerly winds will begin shifting to a more NE flow late
Sunday and into Monday as the sfc ridge over the deep south
migrates eastward. This will begin to bring a gradual increase in
moisture from the Atlantic waters, as well as a little warmer
temps to begin the work week.

Long Term (Monday night-Friday)...the aforementioned sfc high will
weaken as it moves east, but models show another high dropping
into the Southeast states from the Great Lakes area by Tuesday.
Therefore, expect the dry and benign weather conditions to
continue, with a gradual increase in cloud cover and a few more
showers by Tuesday. Afternoon highs will reach the lower to mid
80s, while morning lows will hover the low to mid 60s.

MARINE...Northerly winds of 15 to 20 knots will bring Small
Craft Exercise Caution conditions over the offshore waters of the
Gulf coast today, while the rest of the marine zones will keep
experiencing winds around 15 kts. Occasional seas to 6 ft over
the Gulf Stream will also prompt mention of Exercise Caution over
the Atlantic zones this morning.

High pressure will build through the rest of the weekend with
winds gradually shifting to a more NE flow by late Sunday and
into Monday, then veering the east by the middle of next week. If
model trends materialize, periods of Small Craft Advisory
conditions could develop by Wednesday over the Atlantic waters.
Seas may briefly reach 6 ft in portions of the Atlantic waters
this morning, but quickly subsiding to 2-5 ft through the rest of
the weekend.

Light and variable winds will continue this morning, with mainly
clear skies. Aft 22/1500Z, north northwest winds 8-12 KT will
surface with higher gusts possible. Between 22/1800-2100Z, winds
will shift directly north, then to the north-northeast...dwindling after
22/2300Z. Clouds will be scarce through this evening with dry
conditions prevailing.

West Palm Beach  81  61  80  67 /   0  10  10  20
Fort Lauderdale  83  66  80  69 /   0  10  10  10
Miami            84  63  82  68 /   0  10  10  10
Naples           79  57  81  61 /   0   0   0   0



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