Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 301154
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
754 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST
TERMINALS WITH THE SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO SET-UP AROUND 14-15Z.
FOR TERMINAL KAPF...THE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO SET-UP AROUND
18-19Z BUT MORE FROM THE SSW DUE TO THE PREVAILING EASTERLY
REGIONAL WINDS.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS WITH A EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL
SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM TEXAS EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. AT UPPER
LEVELS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE PENINSULA PER
LATER WATER VAPOR LOOP WITH LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
MOVING INTO REGION.

SHORT TERM...FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LATEST GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TRENDS INDICATE THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND PENINSULA TODAY
EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL WITH
GUIDANCE INDICATING PWAT`S AROUND 1.2 INCHES OR LESS DURING THIS
PERIOD. GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE, LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE RESULTING IN FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES DUE TO DOMINANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...LITTLE
TO NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS ON OCCASION OR ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR
DURING THE AFTERNOONS. YET CONSENSUS OF HIGH RES MODELS NOT VERY
EXCITED ABOUT PROSPECTS. FOR NOW DECIDED TO LEAVE A SILENT POP IN
THE GRIDS AND WILL LET MORNING SHIFT RE-ASSESS.

EXTENDED FORECAST...NEXT WEEK...BOTH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY ERODE EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH
AN UPPER LOW AND DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS BY TUESDAY AND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. IN ADVANCE OF
THAT ON MONDAY SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR PENINSULA ARE POSSIBLE. BY TUESDAY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. BY MID TO LATE WEEK GLOBAL MODELS
ARE MORE IN LINE NOW BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST WITH EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND
NE. THIS WOULD SUSTAIN AND/OR INCREASE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING PATTERN SETTING UP BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH TEMPS COOLING TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. HOWEVER, THE CONSISTENCY AMONG THE
MODELS FROM CYCLE TO CYCLE HAS NOT BEEN THAT GREAT MEANING THERE
STILL REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY.

REGARDLESS, ANALYSIS OF ANOMALY TABLES BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
INDICATE NO OUTSTANDING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME IN TERMS OF SIGNIFICANT
DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL ALONG WITH HIGH IMPACT WEATHER ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH THE WEEK AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK PARTICULARLY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH
OUTLOOK INDICATING COOLER CONDITIONS BY LATE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND AS
NOTED ABOVE. FOR NOW THE STORY CONTINUES TO BE RAIN CHANCES
GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM EARLY TO MID/LATE WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANT
DRYING BY END OF WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS AREA REMAINS ON
SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
AND NE.

MARINE...
ESE WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS MOST OF THE WEEKEND PEAKING
AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS BOTH GULF AND ATLANTIC SOUTHERN WATERS
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE EARLY
IN THE WEEK AS HIGH TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT
LESS THAN 4 FEET OVER THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS OR SO. THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE
LOW ON GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST
MODERATE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG ATLANTIC ANOMALIES ARE A COAST.
LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION RIP CURRENT MODEL EVEN INDICATES THE RISK
COULD BE BORDERLINE HIGH AT TIMES PARTICULARLY THIS WEEKEND ALONG
THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  74  85  75 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  76  86  76 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            86  75  86  76 /   0  10  10  10
NAPLES           89  71  89  70 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....
AVIATION...60/BD



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