Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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701
FXUS62 KMFL 241948
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
Issued by National Weather Service Key West FL
248 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SURFACE WISE...THE
PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
AND WELL EAST OF THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WITH A WEAK
REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

&&

.FORECAST...THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE
LIKELIHOOD AND EXTENT OF FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST
REASONING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERING OUR REGION THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE A DECAYING COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD AND BECOMES
DIFFUSE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...A LARGE
REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES AND OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE WINDS SLACKEN AS A WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGE SAGS INTO OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED SO 20 PERCENT
POPS OR LESS SEEMS REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE A RESIDUAL NORTHERLY SWELL TONIGHT AND
AGAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN AN EXERCISE
CAUTION OR ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR ceilings and patchy fog are the main concern generally after 08Z
especially the vicinity of KAPF/Naples and more inland from the
southeast Florida coast. Prevailing MVFR or above MVFR visibilities
are maintained for generally after 06Z with TEMPO for KAPF/Naples,
KTMB/Taimiami as well as MVFR ceilings at KOPF/Opa Locka and KFXE/Ft
Lauderdale Executive 10 to 13Z as HRRR guidance not emphatic about
IFR reaching all southeast metro airports at this time. While
westerly winds less than 10 knots are established at Naples, the
shift to onshore seabreeze winds across southeast Florida has been
slow to evolve with 19-20Z indicated in the TAFs. Winds are expected
to become light and variable late this evening and continuing
through sunrise Saturday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  64  84  63  80 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  67  85  67  81 /   0   0  10  20
Miami            68  85  66  82 /   0   0   0  20
Naples           64  79  62  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&


DISCUSSION...APA
MARINE...APA
AVIATION...JR







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