Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 300015
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
815 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...

THERE ARE ONLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS BANDS OF SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS
ASSIGNED VCSH AT 00Z WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL DURING THE EVENING HOURS ALTHOUGH WITH PASSING SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. AROUND 06Z AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST WITH CHANCES OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE. THUS ALL
SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS AT 06Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
SUB- VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION WINDS AROUND 06Z EXPECTED TO BE IN 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

..FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT..
..SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...

SHORT TERM...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDING FROM CUBA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMA
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING IN VERY DEEP MOISTURE TO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE WIND DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IN A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ALONG WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE LIKELY CATEGORY
FOR MONDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY IN THE ZONES. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
SOUTH FL. MORE DETAILS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WIND FLOW
TO SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR TO THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL RETURN TO MORE LATE TIME SUMMER
PATTERN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT NUMEROUS
COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS LATE TONIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND 15
TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO BUILD TO 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...AN SCA
WILL BE PUT UP FOR THE ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS FOR
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND A SCEC FOR THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WATERS.

HYDROLOGY...
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN. THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  80  88  79 /  40  80  90  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  81  88  79 /  40  80  90  70
MIAMI            92  79  88  79 /  50  80  90  70
NAPLES           94  77  88  77 /  70  40  80  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...60/BD



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