Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
FXUS62 KMFL 311346 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
946 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016
...SOME MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE TODAY WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...
Remnants of Bonnie off the Carolina`s coast will continue to move
slowly to the north/northeast this afternoon, as an mid to upper
level low near the Bahamas slowly drifts northward. At this same
time, high pressure will also remain nearly stationary over the
Gulf of Mexico. This weather pattern will keep the steering flow
light over South Florida today, and allow for both the east and
west coast sea breezes to develop and push slowly inland.
The atmosphere is also moist over South Florida this morning with
the pwat values around 1.8 inches. This will allow for scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop along the sea
breezes. Therefore, pops will remain in the scattered to numerous
range over the area today with the best coverage over the interior
There could be some minor flooding this afternoon into this
evening over South Florida due to the slow moving storms.
Therefore, a slight risk of flooding will be added to the morning
update of the HWO package for South Florida.
Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 729 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016/
The winds will be light this morning over all of South Florida taf
sites. The winds will then become easterly at 5 to 10 knots over
the east coast taf sites and westerly at 5 to 10 knots at KAPF taf
site after 17Z. The east coast taf sites could see some showers
this morning before thunderstorms affect the taf sites early this
afternoon. Therefore, VCSH will be put in for the east coast taf
sites until 17z then VCTS from 17z until 21Z. VCSH will be in
place from 21Z until 00Z for the east coast taf sites. For KAPF
taf site, the weather will be dry through 17z then VCTS for the
afternoon hours. The ceiling and vis will remain in VFR conditions
today at all of the taf site, but could fall into MVFR or even IFR
conditions with the passage of any shower or thunderstorm.
However, the timing of the low ceiling and vis should be shorter
than 30 minutes. So will not show this in the taf sites at this
time and will put a tempo group in when needed.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016/
The area remains under the influence of an upper level trough,
which can be identified on latest water vapor satellite imagery
extending across the state and into the southwest coastal waters.
Meanwhile, broad surface high pressure across most of the Gulf of
Mexico extends into the Florida peninsula. Latest sounding data for
MFL and model soundings describe PWAT values of one and a half
inch or greater lingering across the area. This synoptic scenario
will translate in continuing light winds this morning, followed by
returning sea breeze circulations in the afternoon. And just like
in the previous couple of days, the sea breeze boundaries will
again act as focal points for convection to develop, while the
influence of the upper trough may enhance overall atmospheric
instability. Thus, expect increased thunderstorm activity over
much of the interior areas of South Florida this afternoon and
early evening, with these areas having the best chances of rain
and thunderstorms as the sea breezes move inland. Some lingering
showers and thunderstorms may persist into the evening or even
the overnight hours.
For Wednesday through Friday, the aforementioned upper trough
should persist through Thursday, then gradually erode on Friday.
Sea breezes are expected each afternoon with showers and
thunderstorms developing along the boundaries.
For the weekend and beyond, model guidance remains in fair
consensus regarding the development of a deep trough/low complex
over the Texas/North Gulf area, with a fairly strong surface
reflection over the western half of the Gulf. This synoptic
picture could place South Florida under a weak to moderate
southerly flow, which will then advect additional moisture into
the area from the south. Therefore, it is likely that thunderstorms
will continue each day through early next week.
Winds in general will remain from the east southeast at 10 knots
or less through the end of the work week. The Gulf and Atlantic
seas forecast advertises 2 feet or less during this period. Only
exception will be with any thunderstorm that forms. Winds and
seas could be much higher locally with any thunderstorm.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach 88 75 88 76 / 40 20 30 20
Fort Lauderdale 87 76 88 77 / 30 20 30 10
Miami 88 76 89 77 / 40 20 30 10
Naples 88 72 89 73 / 30 20 30 30