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000
FXUS62 KMFL 190746 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
338 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...SPC HAS ISSUED
TORNADO WATCH 84 FOR SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

..POSSIBLE STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY...

SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
NORTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TO MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE THROUGH THIS MORNING...AS A LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN TAPPER DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THE WEATHER TONIGHT WILL THEN BE DRY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR
EASTER SUNDAY FROM THE NORTH BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

LONG TERM...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BE A DRY
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS
MORNING BEFORE SWINGING TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO SWING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
TONIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY AS SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS.

THE SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE BUILDING TO 6 FEET ON EASTER SUNDAY. FOR THE
GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THIS MORNING...BEFORE
BUILDING RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BY TONIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 7
FEET.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A NORTHEAST SWELL BUILDING INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE
ATLANTIC SEAS TO BE AT LEAST 7 FEET BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SO WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SCEC FOR THE GULF WATERS FOR TODAY...AND
MENTION A POSSIBLE SCA FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  64  80  68 /  50  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  67  81  71 /  50  10  10  10
MIAMI            87  68  82  69 /  50  10  10  10
NAPLES           83  64  80  66 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...TORNADO WATCH 84 FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA COUNTIES.
AM...TORNADO WATCH 84 FOR ALL ATLANTIC WATERS.
GM...TORNADO WATCH 84 FOR ALL GULF WATERS.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....54/BNB