973
FXUS62 KMFL 140658
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
258 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 141 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

 - Greatest threat for flooding today is across the east coast
   metro areas.

 - Widespread 1-3" for South Florida with scattered locations
   around 3-5". Reasonable worst case scenario for an isolated
   location or two is 5-7".

 - Heavy rain threat continues through Wednesday but shifts
   primarily to the interior and west coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

The primary features responsible for the local weather through mid-
week are a pair of TUTTs moving west through the Gulf and Atlantic.
At the surface, their reflections are/will be a surface ridge over
the eastern Gulf and a developing area of low pressure across the
far western Atlantic and SE US. The steering flow between these low-
level features will generally be out of the NW through Tuesday.

For today, all the global ensemble suites indicate PWAT values
climbing into the top 10th percentile of observed climatology for
this time of year. As the low pressure system draws nearer, the low-
level NW/WNW flow will increase as well and result in increased
convergence along the east coast. More deep layer forcing will be
present as well as the full-column synoptic ascent increases. As far
as the evolution of storms is concerned for Monday, expect
convection to spread south through the state where convergence is
enhanced along the increasing wind field. Then later in the
afternoon, convection will focus along the east coast. Generally
speaking, expect 1-2" of rain in areas impacted by thunderstorms,
with scattered amounts of 3-5" certainly a possibility. Right now, a
reasonable worst case to consider on Monday will be along the east
coast metros and could reach 5-7" in an isolated spot or two,
signaled by the latest HREF LPMM and other guidance.

With this potential in mind for several areas to see abundant
rainfall in a short period of time, a Flood Watch has been issued
for the east coast metro zones and coastal zones along the Atlantic
side. Current timing for the watch is from 2-11 PM, but this can
be adjusted as the most up to date data comes in.

Heading into the middle of the week, ensembles continue to show an
anomalously moist background environment through Wednesday, however,
with the surface low pressure moving into the Gulf and weak
troughing in the lower troposphere, convergent flow will be reduced
on Tuesday. In fact, flow will generally be transitioning to a
southerly direction and may focus convection across the interior and
Lake regions both Tuesday and Wednesday. With limited convective
allowing model data available in the Tues/Wed range, the courser
resolution guidance has similar rainfall amounts to Monday, with
roughly 1-2" in locations impacted by thunderstorms and isolated to
scattered amounts around 3-5". As southerly flow increases on
Wednesday, the more progressive nature of storms may knock an inch
or so off those amounts. The threat for flooding is naturally
reduced as the focus shifts off the metros, but will have to monitor
as more guidance comes in and the threat evolves to assess the flood
potential if similar areas across the interior are impacted over
multiple days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Thursday will be the transition day to a more typical easterly flow
regime that will persist into the weekend. Some influence from the
passing upper wave and a TUTT off the Atlantic coast shifting
northwards may continue to result in pockets of heavier rain across
the west coast on Thursday. Otherwise, the subtropical surface high
pressure in the western Atlantic will expand and lead to a more
typical summertime flow pattern for South Florida, resulting in
higher PoPs each day for the Gulf coast and interior sections when
compared to the east coast metro late in the week and into next
weekend.

Heat will return to being the main threat by the end of the week and
into the weekend, with high temperatures in the low to middle 90s
and heat indices climbing well into the 100s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 107 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

VFR prevails to start the period, but storms are expected to become
increasingly widespread later on with periods of MVFR/IFR or lower
CIGs at times. Storms will move generally from north to south
beginning around 18z and consolidating along the east coast in the
late afternoon/evening. The general flow will be out of the W/WSW
but winds will be more variable and gusty with thunderstorm
activity.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 141 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Light winds and low seas will prevail through mid-week. Winds will
then turn solidly southeasterly and may increase to Cautionary
levels as the western edge of high pressure becomes established
across the western Atlantic. Showers and storms will be numerous
through mid-week as well, before returning to more typical
summertime coverage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            88  74  85  77 /  90  80  80  50
West Kendall     88  72  85  74 /  90  70  80  50
Opa-Locka        90  74  87  77 /  90  80  80  50
Homestead        88  74  85  77 /  90  80  80  50
Fort Lauderdale  87  74  85  77 / 100  80  80  50
N Ft Lauderdale  87  74  85  78 / 100  80  80  40
Pembroke Pines   90  77  88  79 /  90  80  80  40
West Palm Beach  87  73  86  76 / 100  80  80  40
Boca Raton       89  73  87  76 /  90  80  80  40
Naples           90  74  87  76 /  90  80  90  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening
     for FLZ068-072-074-168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Harrigan/Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...Redman