Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 051421
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
921 AM EST Mon Dec 5 2016

.UPDATE...
Extensive H8-7 inversion evident on 12z KMFL sounding, and with
warm advection aloft expected through the day, convection, even
showers, very unlikely and have restricted rain chances through
tonight to western portions of CWA. Wind field and thermodynamics
slightly more favorable west of Lake Okeechobee this afternoon, so
have maintained isolated thunder over Glades county, though
confidence is extremely low. With SW flow off the surface, periods
of clouds are expected through the afternoon at various layers,
with temperatures reaching above normal 80s across South Florida.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 708 AM EST Mon Dec 5 2016/

AVIATION...
Scattered to locally BKN cloud deck below 1000 FT at KAPF/Naples
along with 5SM BR should prevail through about 14z, with scattered
cloud layer around 2000 FT elsewhere early this morning. Surface
winds will increase from 150-160 degrees at 14-16 knots with gusts
to 20 knots or slightly higher by 15z as heating mixes stronger
winds down to the surface. VFR conditions will prevail, but brief
intervals of BKN022-025 ceilings are expected from 15z-18z with
similar additional periods through the forecast period as the
Southeast wind flow gradually moistens. Area should remain mostly
free of precipitation, with best chance of showers in vicinity of
Naples and Gulf coast from late this afternoon through the evening
and overnight hours as a cold front moves into the western Gulf
of Mexico.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 355 AM EST Mon Dec 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Short term (Today-Wednesday)...models depict a deepening mid-
upper level trough/low complex moving east-northeast across the
southeast plains today and Tuesday. An associated cold front is
shown on latest model solutions, which will approach the Florida
peninsula tonight and bringing increasing showers and slight
chances of thunderstorms through Tuesday. A deeper layer of
moisture seems to reach South Florida Tuesday mid morning and
through the afternoon hours, but coverage remains generally
scattered per latest model runs.

The best dynamics associated with the aforementioned complex seem
to remain well to the north of the area, thus keeping best chances
for thunderstorms over the northern half of the state. Therefore,
the forecast for Monday will introduce slight chance of thunderstorms
mainly over the northwest portions of the CWA, then spreading
across the entire area on Tuesday. This forecast scenario will
surely be adjusted as new model data becomes available.

As the front approaches South Florida, winds become more southeast
from later today and through Tuesday, then veering to the south or
even southwest by mid week. This wind regime will bring a warm and
moist air mass into the area with increasing temperatures and
generally humid conditions prevailing each day.

Long term (Wednesday night-Sunday)...models show the front stalling
over South Fl during the second half of the week as the trough/low
complex moves further away form the region. This synoptic scenario
will result in a continuing cloudy and rather wet weather pattern
for the end of the work week with chance of scattered showers
across the area through Friday morning.

Another frontal boundary races across Florida on the late Thursday-
Friday afternoon timeframe with a colder and drier airmass behind it
filtering into the area during the upcoming weekend. Low temperatures
could drop into the low 40s Friday night over interior and western
areas of South Florida, and upper 50s to lower 60s along the southeast
coast. Afternoon highs might struggle to break the mid 70s on Friday
and Saturday. The air mass should begin to moderate on Sunday with
highs back into the upper 70s to low 80s.

MARINE...Winds are now veering to the SE while gradually increasing
today. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will develop today
and through Tuesday with speeds in the 15 to 20 knots range over
the Atlantic waters. Winds will then gradually subside as a cold
front stalls over the region. Another front will reach South Florida
by the end of the work week and possibly bringing stronger winds
and hazardous boating conditions during much of the upcoming
weekend.

BEACH FORECAST...The rip current risk will become moderate today
over the Atlantic beaches as winds decrease and shift towards the
south through Tuesday. However, the southerly wind regime may
increase rip current risk over some at the Gulf beaches Tuesday or
Wednesday.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  83  75  86  70 /  20  10  50  20
Fort Lauderdale  81  76  82  73 /  10  10  50  20
Miami            82  75  84  73 /  10  10  50  20
Naples           83  74  82  72 /  20  20  50  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...23/SK










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