Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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218
FXUS62 KMFL 120902
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
402 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

...NICE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BECOMING BREEZY ON SUNDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FOR SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
TODAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL REACH THE 70S
AREA-WIDE WITH LOW DEWPOINTS. SOME PATCHY, LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR THIS MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, BUT ANY FOG SHOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW AND WILL NOT INCLUDE
IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

IMPRESSIVE SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL INVADE MUCH OF THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND, BUT THE BRUNT OF THE AIR MASS
WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF FLORIDA THIS TIME AROUND. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT, BUT BECAUSE THE MAIN PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT IS WELL TO OUR
NORTH, THE FRONT WILL ACT MORE LIKE A "BACKDOOR FRONT" WITH WINDS
TURNING TO THE N-NE RATHER QUICKLY BEHIND IT. THIS MEANS ONLY A
GLANCING BLOW FROM THE ARCTIC HIGH WITH ONLY SLIGHT COOLING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOWS WILL STILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
WITH A BREEZY NE WIND MAKING IT FEEL A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SOME ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY EAST COAST METRO
AREAS AS COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD BE PREVALENT IN THE LOW
LEVEL NE FLOW.

CHANGES TO THE WEATHER PATTERN BEGIN ON MONDAY AS A WELL-DEFINED
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS
AND SWEEPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES/GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A 100-120 KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO THE
SE, THEN S-SW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY, WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS NOT IN PERFECT AGREEMENT ON AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE INCREASE AND INSTABILITY. THE GFS MOISTURE RETURN IS MODEST
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WHICH SHOWS A BULLS-EYE OF HIGH QPF ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. SOME OF THIS IS PROBABLY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND
WE`VE SEEN THE ECMWF BE PRONE TO THIS WITH OTHER SYSTEMS THIS
WINTER. HOWEVER, DYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS.
POPS FOR THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME WILL SHOW AN INCREASE OVER
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE INCREASED FURTHER
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THIS
SCENARIO. FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER, ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY AND WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY, DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH PROBABLY
NOT AS COOL AS WHAT WE`VE EXPERIENCED THIS WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. SEAS WILL LIKELY PEAK AT 6 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM ON
SUNDAY. WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH AND REMAIN AROUND 20
KNOTS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SEAS REMAINING AROUND 6
FEET IN THE GULF STREAM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR TODAY WILL LEAD TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 30
PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA, WITH
HIGHER VALUES IN THE 40 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF.
LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND POOR TO FAIR DISPERSION WILL MITIGATE RED
FLAG CONCERNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RECOVER SOME ON SATURDAY AS
DISPERSION VALUES IMPROVE TO GENERALLY GOOD, WITH FURTHER INCREASE
IN HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY AS WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST TO EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  55  73  56 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  57  74  58 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            73  57  74  58 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           72  54  74  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...59/MOLLEDA
AVIATION...88/ALM



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