Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 250004

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
804 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Latest radar imagery continued to indicate the last of this
afternoons shower/storm activity moving westward, off the coast
of Naples. Elsewhere, mostly clear conditions exist with few
passing high clouds. A relatively dry atmosphere should limit
shower activity with maybe a stray shower moving over the east
coast metro region. Lowered PoP coverage this evening into
tonight, as model guidance has been too aggressive lately.
Updated to the short term winds and sky cover to match current
trends, otherwise the rest of the forecast appeared on track.
Synoptically, little changes tomorrow, so expecting a similar east
southeast flow pattern with scattered showers and an isolated
thunderstorms or two in the afternoon over the western interior
and Gulf coast.


The winds will remain southeast tonight into Sunday for all of the
taf sites, except for KAPF taf site where the winds will become
southwest in the afternoon. The speeds will be 5 to 10 knots
tonight before increasing to around 10 knots on Sunday, except for
KFLL where they will increase to around 15 knots. The weather
will remain dry for the east coast taf sites tonight into Sunday.
KAPF taf site will see some showers until 02Z tonight and then
VCTS after 18Z Sunday. The ceiling and vis will remain in VFR
conditions tonight into Sunday for all of the taf sites.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 406 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017/

Latest water vapor imagery loop shows a large dome
of upper level high pressure dominating the Florida peninsula with
broad troughing further north, sagging over the Ohio valley.
Surface analysis shows a 1020 mb surface high near Bermuda. Clockwise
flow around this feature has been rather stagnant over the past
several days, responsible for the breezy southeast winds along
our coasts. This mornings MFL RAOB sounding indicated a rather
dry and stable atmosphere, with only 1.59 inches of PWAT and a
capping temperature inversion around 700 mb. With similar
atmospheric conditions projected for this evening, PoPs will be
relatively low. Local observation sites show a sea breeze
collision along the western interior. This should generate enough
lift to produce a few afternoon showers and perhaps rumble of
thunder into late this evening. However, shower activity will
dwindle tonight, with the loss of diurnal heating. On Sunday,
little changes synoptically. An elongated upper level ridge of
high pressure remains in place over the Florida peninsula, with
surface high pressure near Bermuda. Therefore, expect another
round of brisk southeast winds around 10 to 15 mph, strongest
along the east coast. The GFS model projects 500 mb heights
increasing to 595 mb, translating to strong subsidence over the
peninsula. This should help maximum temperatures to climb back
into the upper 80s along the coast to slightly over 90 degrees
inland. Chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms should
remain limited to the interior and Gulf coast.

The aforementioned broad trough will begin to deepen over the
Tennessee valley, dropping a cold front southward. In response,
the Bermuda high will retreat eastward and decrease influence of
the southeast winds. By Tuesday, deeper moisture ahead of the
front, combined with lighter winds and stronger sea breeze
interactions will trigger additional shower and thunderstorm
activity. Though the front is not progged to sag much further
south than northern Florida, this deeper moisture will allow for
chance to likely PoPs over our region, most widespread in the
afternoon. Light south and southeast flow will concentrate most
activity over the interior, but may drift to the coasts as
outflow boundaries collide. Maximum temperatures will remain in
the upper 80s and lower 90s, near average for this time of year.
Friday into next weekend, but the GFS and ECMWF indicate high
pressure building back in over the western Atlantic, continuing
the typical summerlike weather pattern.

centered over the western Atlantic is retreating eastward into the
Bahamas as a cold front over Tennessee Valley moves slowly across
the southeast plains into FL panhandle late Monday. Deep moisture
content will work its way into the region leading for an increase
in scattered showers and thunderstorms the early part of the
week. This front is not progged to make it too much further south
remaining near Central FL. The front stalls to the north but the
abundant moisture to the south will increase pops to 50 to 60
percent for South Florida through the week.

Surface high pressure near Bermuda will keep an east
to southeast wind across the South Florida coastal waters
through the Sunday. A relatively drier atmosphere will only
produce a few showers over the waters. The chances for showers
and thunderstorms will increase again next week. The flow will be
mainly southeasterly, with the exception of the near shore Gulf
waters, where an afternoon southwest sea breeze may develop.

The threat of moderate rip currents will continue through at least
Sunday as breezy east or east southeast winds prevail.


West Palm Beach  80  91  78  91 /  10  20  20  30
Fort Lauderdale  80  90  80  90 /  10  20  20  30
Miami            80  91  79  91 /  10  10  20  30
Naples           75  91  76  90 /  20  20  30  50



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