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000
FXUS62 KMFL 170021 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
821 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE WIND
FLOW IN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR THE CONTINUATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THE WINDS
WILL ALSO DECREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE METRO AREAS TO 5 MPH
OR LESS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS LATE TONIGHT. SO THERE COULD BE
SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN START TO MOVE SOUTHWARD MONDAY
MORNING AND SHOULD BE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA SOMETIME MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO
BECOME SOUTHWEST...AND ALLOW FOR THE WIND SPEEDS TO PICK UP TO
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE. SO HAVE
SHIFTED THE HIGHEST POPS TO THE NORTHERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME...AS THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE OF STORMS THROUGH THE AREA. SO WILL CONTINUE
THE LIKELY POPS ALONG WITH SOME STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMSOVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH WITH
SPEEDS DECREASING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS EARLY THIS EVENING TO AROUND
10 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE WINDS
WILL THEN SWING TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON MONDAY WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE
TAF SITES. THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY TONIGHT OVER THE TAF
SITES BEFORE VCTS BE ADDED FOR MOST OF THE TAF SITES MONDAY
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR KMIA...KOPF...AND KTMB WHERE VCSH WILL BE
ADDED.

&&

UPDATE...54/BNB
AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014/

..SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...

DISCUSSION...
SE/S WIND FLOW AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE GIVING US ONE MORE
DAY OF NICE WEATHER BEFORE CHANGES TAKE PLACE. RIGHT NOW THE MAIN
TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MID/UPPER LOW OVER ARKANSAS AND WEST
TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON IS EJECTING E/NE WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY WELL TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER,
IT`S THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS WHICH WILL
PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR OUR ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE STEADILY EAST ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT AND
MONDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LOW FOLLOWS BEHIND. IT APPEARS AS IF THE
MAIN DYNAMICS LAG WELL BEHIND THE FRONT, AT LEAST INITIALLY,
BEFORE CATCHING UP MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. A FEW SHOWERS OR STRONG TSTMS MAY FIRE UP OVER THE SOUTH
FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS TEMPS HEAT UP INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S UNDER STRONG S/SW WINDS, BUT THE BULK OF THE
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME DURING
PERIOD OF LOWEST INSTABILITY. WHILE THIS MAY WORK TO LIMIT
STRONG/SEVERE TSTM ACTIVITY, WIND FIELDS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE INCREASING, WITH AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY AVAILABLE AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE, STILL HAVE A REASONABLE
CHANCE OF STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE-LEVEL WIND GUSTS MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE BAND OF CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FORECAST UPDATES AS WELL AS SPC OUTLOOKS.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
OVER SE FLORIDA AT 12Z TUESDAY AND MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE
MORNING ON TUESDAY. SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS/TSTMS VERY EARLY TUESDAY
ALONG THE SE COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY, WITH IMPROVING
WEATHER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH FLOW BECOMING NE/E. FRONT
DOESN`T MOVE TOO FAR SOUTH OF US BEFORE STALLING SO COULD HAVE
SOME CLOUDINESS RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY BUT WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR MID-MARCH
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S/60S AND HIGHS IN THE 70S/LOWER 80S.

LOOKING AT THE END OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
AND EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE SHOULD LEAD TO RATHER BENIGN
WEATHER.

AVIATION (FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF MONDAY. SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 00-03Z MONDAY THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY THEN INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA OVER NIGHT. SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECTED AROUND 14Z MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST THEREAFTER.

MARINE...
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS S/SW WINDS REMAIN AT OR OVER 20 KTS. WINDS DECREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT ON TUESDAY, WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING. LOOKS LIKE
A RETURN TO DECENT BOATING CONDITIONS BY MID WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ISSUES WITH FOG OR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOWEST RH VALUES BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE 40
PERCENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  87  75  80 /  10  40  60  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  87  77  80 /  10  40  60  30
MIAMI            74  87  76  80 /  10  40  60  30
NAPLES           72  85  72  77 /  20  50  70  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....54/BNB