Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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FXUS66 KMFR 031014
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
314 AM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE COAST
TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT AND INDICATE A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WAY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BOTH
THE NAM12 AND THE GFS BRING A PAIR OF SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE ALONG
THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH SEEM TO KEY IN ON THE CASCADES
FROM CRATER LAKE NORTHWARD AS THE MOST UNSTABLE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO GENERATE A TENTH
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN.

THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW MOVED CLOSER TO SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. THE DYNAMICS AGAIN LOOKS FAVORABLE TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DOWN INTO THE 60S IN THE ROGUE VALLEY DUE TO OVERCAST SKY. THE
CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL HELP PULL A COLD FRONT INLAND. THERE
WILL STILL BE A LOT OF MOISTURE WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE
BACK INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND CASCADES EAST, ALTHOUGH OUR
COASTAL ZONES AND DOUGLAS COUNTY SHOULD START TO SEE SOME CLEARING
WITH DECREASING SHOWERS.

THE LATEST GFS SHOWS NO MAJOR CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED. WRAPPED
AROUND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ZONES
AND LAKE COUNTY UNSTABLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS COULD EXTEND BACK TO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE
CASCADES IN JACKSON COUNTY BUT MOST OF SW OREGON WILL SEE A DRYING
AND WARMING TREND NEXT WEEKEND. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 04/06Z TAF CYCLE...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, BUT BREEZY WINDS AND SHOWER CHANCES WILL RETURN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE COAST, LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS ARE
COVERING THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST AND LIKELY ALL OF THE
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. IT WILL SURGE INLAND TONIGHT, WITH ONLY
PARTIAL CLEARING AT BEST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. -SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT TUE 3 MAY 2016...A WEAK FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS.
WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH PERIODS OF
HAZARDOUS SEAS OR GALES POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     PZZ376.

$$

FJB/TRW/SBN


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