Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 031101
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
301 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL BE QUIET, DRY, AND MOSTLY
BENIGN. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST FOR
THE NEXT WEEK, AND ALTHOUGH SOME SHORTWAVES DO ATTEMPT TO RIDE UP
AND OVER THE RIDGE, NONE OF THEM WILL HAVE ANY IMPACT ON THE
WEATHER IN SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. IN FACT, THE
ONLY DISCERNIBLE CHANGE IN DAY-TO-DAY WEATHER WILL BE STEADILY
INCREASING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING, WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY IN WEST SIDE
VALLEYS. AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS MAY NEED TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO
PROTECT NEW GROWTH RESULTING FROM THE WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. BY THIS WEEKEND, OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS, BUT HIGHS WILL
APPROACH 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR, WITH PERHAPS SOME VALLEY FOG IN THE MORNINGS, BUT NOTHING
WIDESPREAD OR OVERLY DENSE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, WHERE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A SOUTHERLY
MARINE PUSH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND FOG WOULD RESULT FROM
THIS SCENARIO, SO HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TO REFLECT THIS THINKING.

THERE IS HOPE FOR PRECIPITATION, PERHAPS, BEYOND DAY SEVEN. MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE PRODUCING A LARGE, VERY WET SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE
NEXT TUESDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING THE FEATURE, WITH REMARKABLE AGREEMENT IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT EVEN THAT FAR OUT IN TIME. THE BAD NEWS IS THAT THIS
HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SEVERAL DAYS, WITH THE SYSTEM RESIDING JUST
BEYOND A WEEK OUT WITH EACH MODEL RUN. WHILE I HAVE PLACED A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, IT
WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE IF THE EVENT GETS PUSHED BACK FURTHER IN
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. UNTIL THIS SYSTEM FINALLY DECIDES TO ARRIVE,
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 03/06Z TAF CYCLE...MID LEVEL STRATUS WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT ON THE WEST SIDE. THIS MAY
ALLOW SOME IFR CIG STRATUS TO FORM IN THE UMPQUA (INCLUDING KRBG),
BUT THE WEST SIDE WILL MOSTLY BE VFR INCLUDING KMFR AND KOTH. MID
LEVEL CLOUD WILL BE A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT EAST OF THE CASCADES,
BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. -WRIGHT


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 3 PM PST, MONDAY, 2 MAR, 2015...A LOW DEPARTING TO
THE SOUTH THIS EVENING WILL LEAVE BEHIND MODERATE NORTH WINDS WITH
STEEP SEAS DUE TO A MIX OF NORTHWEST SWELL AND WIND SEAS. SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE SOME BY TUESDAY MORNING AS WINDS DIMINISH BRIEFLY BUT SWELL
REMAINS. SEAS WILL BECOME WIND DRIVEN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS NORTH
WINDS INCREASE DUE TO A DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. NORTH WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATE IN THE WEAK AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD. MND


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM
     PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PST THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM
     PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BPN/TRW/MND



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