Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 010131
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
931 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH AN
INLAND TROUGH DEVELOPING TO THE WEST MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM FRIDAY...CONVECTION FINALLY DEVELOPED MAINLY ACROSS
SRN TIER WHERE CONVERGENCE WAS MAXIMIZED ALONG INLAND MOVING SEA
BREEZE. TRENDS IN FCST LOOK OK WITH HIGHEST POPS SRN TIER
TAPERING TO NO POPS MOST OF OBX WHERE DRIER AIR HAS WORKED IN.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 NW TO MID 70S SRN CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM FRIDAY...MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT DRIER FOR SATURDAY
AS MAIN AXIS OF CONVERGENCE AND THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE
OFFSHORE. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS NEAR THE COAST
TAPERING TO MINIMAL POPS WELL INLAND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S COAST AND LOW/MID 90S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE BROAD TROUGHING DOMINATES ALOFT.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND WILL FOLLOW TRENDS OF DECREASING POPS TO LESS THAN 20
PERCENT FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS AND 20-40 PERCENT ON THE COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG THE COAST. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S SUN
AND MON...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.

BERMUDA HIGH AND THERMAL TROUGH SET-UP RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH PREDOMINATE S/SW FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA AND SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. TEMPS
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK...AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB
TEMPS WARM...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST. COULD SEE MARGINAL HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA TUE/WED. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEEK.
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING TIMING/PLACEMENT...THE GFS HAS
THE FRONT STALLING SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE
ECMWF PUSHES IT THOUGH THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 605 PM FRIDAY...TOUGH FCST AS GUIDANCE VARIES WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FOG/ST...ESPCLY CLOSER TO CST. THINK BEST CHC OF IFR
WILL BE OAJ AND EWN ESPCLY IF ANY PRECIP MOVES OVER THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING. FOR NOW WILL JUST SHOW SOME MVFR LATE BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SAT
AND EXPECT ONCE ANY FOG/ST LIFTS BY MID MORN WILL SEE VFR REST OF
THE DAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT NIGHT THROUGH
MID WEEK...WITH BEST CHANCES AT EWN/OAJ BECOMING MORE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN TUE/WED. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT WITH MOIST
BL AND LIGHT WINDS...ESP FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM FRIDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE AS WINDS EXPECTED TO GRAD
BECOME SSW AS FRONT/TRF DEVELOPS INLAND. LIGHT SPEEDS CNTRL AND
NRN WTRS TONIGHT WITH 10 TO 15 KTS S. ON SAT THE WINDS SHLD
INCREASE TO 10 T0 15 KTS ALL WTRS. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET...POSS
SOME 5 FOOTERS OVERNIGHT OUTER CNTRL WTRS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST OR
JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH EXPECT PRED S/SW
FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGH THE
DAY SUN WITH INCREASING SSW WINDS 10-20KT LATE SUN. A PERIOD OF
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20KT AND SEAS BUILDING
TO 4-6FT. GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WED...WITH
LINGERING 6FT SEAS POSSIBLE INTO TUE NIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD/SAS
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CTC/CQD


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