Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 280803
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
403 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the west today, and then shift
offshore Thursday. High pressure remains offshore through the
weekend with troughing inland through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 330 AM Wed...Cold front now has passed through the region
and is currently tracking south through the coastal waters.
All showers now well off the coast, and have a dry forecast
going forward. Temps are still mild along the coast and just
inland in the low 70s. Have adjusted low temps slightly again
with some inland locations running cooler than expected, and
some coastal areas running warmer than expected. Still think
lows inland will drop into the upper 50s, and upper 60s to low
70s along the immediate coast. Also adjusted dewpoints up a few
degrees based on current trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday and Wednesday Night/...
As of 330 PM Wed...Another refreshing day is expected today
with low humidities and seasonably cool temperatures. High temps
should reach the mid/upper 80s inland and the low 80s along the
coast. Dry and mostly sunny weather is expected, with high
pressure overhead and light winds initially N/NE then shifting
NE/E.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 4 AM Wednesday...High pressure will shift off the coast
Thursday with return southerly flow developing. Unsettled
weather returns Friday afternoon through Tuesday as scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day.

Thursday...Dry weather is expected through Thursday as high
pressure slowly shifts off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Winds become
more southeasterly on Thursday, allowing dew points to build
back into the mid 60s by late afternoon. Low level thicknesses
will range 1390-1400 meters Thursday, yielding max temps in the
mid to upper 80s across Eastern NC, with low 80s along the
coast.

Friday...A weak upper level disturbance will move into the
region Friday morning originating from the Gulf of Mexico.
Latest guidance indicates showers possible for the southern
half of the CWA on Friday. Will maintain trend of slight chance
PoPs increasing from the south starting late Thursday night into
early Friday morning. PoPs increase to 20 to 40 percent Friday,
highest across southern areas. Shower/thunderstorm activity
will shift to the coast and coastal waters Friday Night and have
chance PoPs along the coast for this. High temps will reach the
upper 80s inland with mid 80s for coastal areas.

Saturday through Tuesday...Scattered showers/thunderstorms are
possible each afternoon from Saturday to Tuesday and move
towards the coast overnight. Have broad chance PoPs for this
period with the highest PoPs over inland areas during the day,
and along the coast at night. A weak front may aid shower and
thunderstorm development Sunday. High temps will range from the
low 90s inland to mid 80s near the coast, with lows in the
lower to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /through 06Z Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Wed...VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period. Some mid/high clouds currently over the southern coast
will move out to sea, and then mostly clear conditions will
persist through Thursday morning. Winds will be very light
overnight and out of the NE Thursday morning, then ENE later in
the afternoon.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 4 PM Wednesday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period. Some brief sub-VFR periods are possible
Friday afternoon through Sunday as scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible, and could see some periods of
MVFR-IFR fog/low stratus early mornings beginning on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Wednesday and Wednesday Night/...
As of 330 AM Wed...A slight northerly surge is expected behind
the cold front with winds around 15 kts through sunrise today.
Winds will be slightly weaker for the rest of Wednesday and into
Wednesday night generally 10-15 kts turning to the E later
Wednesday evening. Seas will mostly be 2-3 ft through the
period.

Long Term /Thursday night through Sunday/...
As of 4 AM Wednesday...Fair boating conditions expected through
the long term, especially Thursday. Winds will shift SE Thursday
and remain light. SE flow around 10 KT gradually becomes more
southerly by Thursday night into Friday. By Saturday winds
become more southwest and increase to 10-15 kts. This will
continue into Sunday. Could see periods of 15 to 20 KT in the
outer waters Saturday and Sunday. Seas will be mostly 2-3 ft,
with some 4 ft seas possible beginning Saturday across the outer
fringes of the central and southern waters. NWPS and Wavewatch
appeared in good agreement through the medium range, with
Wavewatch reasonable for the extended period.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SGK
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...RSB/DAG
AVIATION...DAG/SGK
MARINE...DAG/SGK


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