Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 292257
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
658 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE
FRONT WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 657 PM TUE...SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN ONSLOW COUNTY WILL ALSO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS
OF AFTERNOON HEATING. FRONT OFF THE COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP DRY...COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE AREA. PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER WITH A RELATIVELY
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...PWATS BELOW 1.25. NO POPS FCST.
COMFORTABLE TEMPS WITH MID 80S AND PTCLDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES TO THE WEST WILL RIDGE INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THURS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OFFSHORE WITH
LIGHT NLY FLOW BRINGING UNSEASONABLY LOW DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
REGION. PWATS REMAIN BELOW 1.25" (LESS THAN 25 PERCENTILE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR)...COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL AND WILL KEEP POPS
BELOW 10 PERCENT. TEMPS WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 COAST AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOW 80S OBX.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO GRADUALLY DE-AMPLIFY LATE IN THE
WEEK WHILE THE OFFSHORE TROUGH MIGRATES WESTWARD TOWARDS THE
COAST SETTING THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER
JET WITH SFC CONVERGENCE INCREASING ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH AS
WELL AS PWATS INCREASING TO ABOVE 2". TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG
MODELS HAVE GROWN IN RESPECT TO THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION
WITH THE NAM AND GFS TRENDING SLOWER...MOVING THE TROUGH INLAND
LATE FRI/FRI EVENING VERSUS THE ECMWF WHICH MOVES THE TROUGH IN
LATE THURS NIGHT. SIMILARLY...THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE DE-
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THESE FEATURES AS
WELL AS POTENTIAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
FLOW ALOFT DECIDED TO CAP POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE LONG TERM WITH THIS PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM TUE...FEW CU LEFT IN THE SKIES THIS EVENING...SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. WITH CLEARING SKIES...NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW...AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TONIGHT...FOG A
POSSIBILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION...BUT FOG POTENTIAL TOOL AND OTHER GUIDANCE DO INDICATE
FOG FORMATION IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. HAVE PUT MVFR CONDITIONS IN
LOWERED VISIBILITY. FOG WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH
SOME AFTERNOON CU POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
GOOD FLYING WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DOMINATING. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG AT THE
TERMINALS EACH MORNING BUT WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION FRI THROUGH
THE WEEKEND PUTTING E NC IN FAVORABLE REGIME FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 652 PM TUE...NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING RUNNING 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
FRONT LINGERING OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP THE FLOW NORTHEASTERLY
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH HIGH RPESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FOR A SOLID 15 KNOTS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHEAST.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...HIGH PRES RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THURS
WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE WATERS. WINDS WILL
PREDOMINATELY BE EAST AOB 15 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 2 TO 4 FT. THE
FRONT RETREATS WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH FRIDAY...THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE FASTER BRINGING THE TROUGH INTO THE REGION EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WHILE THE AMERICAN MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
SLOWER...BRING THE TROUGH INLAND FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS BECOME SLY
AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS
CONTINUING AROUND 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/SK
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CGG/SK
MARINE...CGG/SK








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