Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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507
FXUS62 KMHX 091443
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
943 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold high pressure builds into the area today into Saturday. The
high will move offshore Sunday. A warm front will move north
through the area Sunday night. A cold front will approach the area
from the west Monday. The front will cross the area Monday night
and stall to the south as high pressure builds in briefly from
the north Tuesday. The front to the south will lift north across
the area as a warm front Tuesday night. Another cold front will
cross the area Wednesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 940 AM Fri...A chilly morning as temps currently struggling
through the 30s on their way to fcst highs in the 40-45 degree
range. NW breeze at 5 to 10 mph will continue through today making
it feel chillier than it is despite full sunshine.

Previous Discussion...As of 630 AM Friday...Latest sfc analysis
continues to show the Arctic high pressure extending down into the
Southern Plains and will continue to build towards Tenn Valley...
bringing cold and dry airmass across the region. As the high
builds farther eastward, NW winds will relax a bit along the
coastal area. The coolest temperatures of the season as 850mb
temps average approx -6 to -7 degrees C and low thicknesses
ranging btw 1276-1288 meters. Supporting highs in the low/mid 40s
under clear skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Friday...Arctic high pressure will be over the area,
but not quite overhead. Clear and dry airmass will dominate the
region, meanwhile winds will decouple inland tonight giving way to
good radiational cooling...bringing overnight temperatures
dropping into the 20s inland and low 30s OBX. A Freeze Watch has
been upgraded to a Freeze Warning for the OBX zones as all MOS
guidance have strong agreement with dropping at or below 32
degrees. This will end the growing season over the OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 AM Friday...A fast and progressive low amplitude zonal
flow will continue across much of the CONUS through next week with
a series of disturbances moving across the area. This will cause a
series of fronts to move across eastern NC producing unsettled
conditions Sunday night into perhaps Thursday. Forecast confidence
in precipitation details is below normal due to the progressive
nature of the flow. Cold weather on Saturday will moderate Sunday
and especially Monday which could be the warmest day of the week
then a series of cold fronts will cross the area through mid week
producing near normal temperatures.

Sunday and Sunday night...As the high begins to slide offshore
Sunday and hgts aloft rise temps will increase with high mainly
mid 50s to near 60. Increasing southerly flow Sunday night will
increase moisture over the area and may see a few showers late
Sunday along the coast with a better threat spreading inland
Sunday night.

Mon thru Wed...Cold front will be approaching from the west
Monday and cross the area Mon Night with a chance of showers and
mild temps with highs Mon near 70. High pres will quickly build in
briefly Tue afternoon with near seasonal highs in the 55 to 60
degree range. The initial cold front which is forecast to stall
to the south Tuesday will move north through the area as a warm
front Tuesday night. Another cold front is expected to cross Wed
night however low confidence given lack of model agreement and
consistency. For now will have chance PoPs Tuesday night into
Wednesday night. Highs Wednesday again will be 55 to 60.

Thursday...Bigger model discrepancies come into play by Thursday
with regards location/timing of cold front and thus precipitation
chances. Will indicate 20-30% PoPs east half with much cooler
highs in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /Through tonight/...
As of 600 AM Friday...High confidence of VFR conditions will
prevail the TAF period. Arctic high pressure will slowly build
towards the east...bringing cool and dry airmass into the region.
NW winds will increase to around 10 knots with gusts up to 15
knots starting mid morning. Winds are expected to decouple tonight
under clear skies. Fog not expected as dewpoint depression are
above 5 degree spread.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 215 AM Friday...Strong/cold high pres with very dry air
builds in Sat with VFR and mainly clr skies. The high will slide
off the coast Sun with continued VFR then return flow will lead
to some increase in clouds late Sunday and a chc of showers with
sub VFR conditions Mon/Mon night. Looks like VFR will briefly
return Tue as high pressure builds over the area in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through tonight/...
As of 940 AM Friday...No changes except to drop SCA from
Pamlico/Albemarle/Alligator zones as winds have diminished below
25 kt. Otherwise, winds will continue to diminish over the waters
through the day today with all SCA ending by this afternoon.

Prev Dis... Winds will slowly diminish through the day as the
Arctic high pressure builds towards the east. NW winds 15-25 knots
with seas 4-6 ft central/northern waters and 2-4 ft south. Small
Craft Advisory will end first across the Sounds/Alligator River at
15z and then eventually the northern/central waters by late
afternoon (21z). Winds will remain NW 15-20 knots tonight with
seas subsiding 3-5 ft north of Hatteras and 2-3 ft south.

Long Term /Sat through Tue/...
As of 215 AM Friday...NW winds 10 to 15 kt Sat will diminish to
N/NE 5 to 10 kts Sat night into Sunday morning. Winds are forecast
to become SE and increase to 10 to 15 kt Sunday afternoon and
become southerly 20 to 25 kt Sunday night into Monday evening
ahead of the cold front. Winds will then shift to N 10 to 15 kt
Monday night and diminish to NE 5 to 10 kt late Tuesday behind the
front. Seas of 2 to 4 feet Sunday will subside to 1 to 3 feet Sat
night into Sunday. Sunday night seas will build to 4 to 7 ft and
Monday to 5 to 8 ft in the strong prefrontal southerly flow. Seas
should subside below 6 ft late Monday night into early Tuesday as
the flow diminishes.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Saturday for
     NCZ103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ150-
     152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/BM
NEAR TERM...TL/BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...RF/JME
AVIATION...RF/JME/BM
MARINE...RF/JME/TL/BM



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