Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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881
FXUS62 KMHX 210445
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1245 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the region through Saturday and
then slide offshore Sunday into Monday. A strong cold front will
approach from the west Tuesday and move across the area Tuesday
night into early Wednesday. High pressure will build over the
area mid to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1245 AM Saturday...High pressure surface and aloft was
creating ideal conditions for radiational cooling with clear
skies/calm winds. This has led to the formation of shallow
patchy fog which will persist overnight. Overnight lows will be
in the upper 40s inland to 50s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...Upper ridge will crest over area Saturday
with surface high extending into area from north. Some high
clouds spreading in from west during afternoon, otherwise
continued dry and mild. Max temps similar to today (Friday),
ranging from mid 70s Outer Banks to around 80 inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 PM Friday...
Saturday night through Sunday...High pressure will move off the
coast Sunday with return flow bringing warming temps and slight
rises in humidity values. It will continue to be mainly sunny
with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Morning lows will be in
the 50-55 degree range interior to low 60s beaches.

Monday through Tuesday...Next significant shortwave/cold front
moves into the eastern CONUS early next week. Upper ridging
still overhead on Monday, though low level flow veers southeast
and strengthens, so some sct showers may advect onshore across
the FA as boundary layer moisture increases through the day and
into Monday night.

Continue likely PoPs Tuesday as 20/12Z global model remain in
good agreement with timing/strength of deep upper trough and
strong cold front progged to move through the region. Late
Monday night and especially Tuesday, vorticity advection
increases as models depict dampening shortwave trough pivoting
through the TN/Ohio valleys. This feature will spur cyclogenesis
west and north of the Carolinas acting to increase dynamics and
strengthening southerly flow on 50+ kt LLJ. Dewpoints will rise
steadily through the 60s by Tuesday, and the combination of
significant wind shear and marginal instability could spell a
high shear/low CAPE scenario for strong or severe storms. Too
early to depict storm mode, but will have to monitor as the
potential will be there for severe if enough instability
present.

Wednesday through Friday...Rapid drying and cooling expected
Wednesday as the front should move off the coast by early
morning. Have retained the small PoPs for Wednesday/Wednesday
night as the deep upper low moves through E NC and could produce
a few showers. Dry NW flow on Thursday as upper low finally
exits off the Mid Atlantic coast and high pressure builds into
the region. Temps will be much cooler for the mid week period
with Wednesday and Thursday both in the 60s for highs. High
pressure slides offshore Friday with return flow bringing
gradually warming temps with highs around 70. Low temps fall
back into the 50s inland to around 60 coast for Wednesday
morning, then into the 40s inland and low 50s beaches for
Thursday/Friday mornings.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /through Saturday night/...
As of 1245 AM Saturday...Conditions will again be ideal for
radiational fog development with clear skies and calm winds
occurring across the area as high pressure surface and aloft
prevails across the region. Moisture profiles are very shallow
thus the fog will be very shallow and tend to drift in and out
with rapidly changing visibilities. Fog will dissipate around
13Z Saturday with VFR conditions prevailing through Saturday
evening. Conditions then will be favorable for fog to develop
again after midnight Saturday night.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 330 PM Friday...Pred VFR conditions expected Sunday into
Monday, however there may be overnight/early morning fog all TAF
sites as low level moisture increases and skies remain clear
with calm winds each night. Brief periods of sub-VFR possible
with isolated to scattered showers spreading onshore Monday into
Monday night. A better chance of widespread MVFR/IFR comes
Tuesday into Tuesday evening as a strong cold front approaches
the region. Gusty southerly winds also expected on Tuesday ahead
of the front. Pred VFR expected to return Tuesday night as
drier air moves into the region but could see isolated to
scattered showers continue into Wednesday with brief periods of
sub-VFR conditions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Saturday/...
As of 1245 AM Saturday...No changes to previous forecast
thinking. Quiet on the waters tonight with seas mainly 2 to 3
feet and light variable winds 10 kt or less as high pressure
prevails. High pressure building in from west and then extending
over waters from the north Saturday will produce excellent
marine conditions for most mariners. Wind speeds will be mainly
10 kt or less through the period with the NW-N flow this evening
becoming N-NE tonight and then NE-E Saturday. Seas will
continue at 2 to 3 feet.

Long Term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 330 PM Friday...High pressure continues over the waters
Sunday with northeast to east winds around 5-10 kt and seas
around 2-3 ft. Winds will veer to southeast on Monday as high
pressure moves further offshore and slowly increase from 5-10 kt
in the morning to 10-15 kt by late in the afternoon. Seas will
be around 2-4 ft. Southerly winds increase drastically Monday
night and peak around 20-30 kt with some gale force gusts
possible on Tuesday ahead of a strong cold front approaching
from the west. Seas build to 7-12 feet by Tuesday afternoon
into the evening hours. The cold front pushes across the region
late Tuesday night with winds becoming NW around 10-15 kt and
seas gradually subsiding to 4-6 ft by Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/JBM
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM/EH
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JME/JBM/EH/SK
MARINE...JME/JBM/EH/SK



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