Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 271422
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
641 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY WILL MOVE EAST...REACHING
THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 917 AM SAT...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAS BURNED OFF THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY GIVING
LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES TO THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING WINDS
TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...BUT REMAINLY LIGHT. FULL SUN WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SAT...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. MODELS TRENDING
DRIER OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED MENTION OF POPS. CONTINUED TO GO ABOVE
GUIDANCE LOWS DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW. EXPECTING MID 40S COASTAL PLAIN TO MID 50S SOUTH COAST AND
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SAT...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
SUNDAY AND MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY WITH ECMWF BEING
THE STRONGEST AND SLOWEST. OPTED TO BLEND ECMWF/GFS/PREV FCST FOR
THE FRONTAL FEATURE. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TIL WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME
MONDAY. TWEAKED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS DROPPING THEM A
BIT ON SUNDAY THEN SLOWLY RAMPING UP TO LIKELY BY THE DAY ON
MONDAY. POPS DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT. OPTED TO
KEEP TUESDAY DRY ALTHOUGH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LINGERING
CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE AREA INTO TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEST OF THE AREA TUESDAY. AND DRIFT
SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LAST HALF OF THE
WEEK....KEEPING THE FCST DRY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS INTO FRIDAY...WARMING A BIT ON SATURDAY AS FLOW RETURNS
TO SOUTHERLY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 645 AM SAT...ANY PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DISSIPATE VERY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. VFR/SKC THROUGH THE DAY.
CALM WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT. MID CLOUD DECK
AROUND 10 KFT WILL SPREAD IN THIS EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SAT...A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASING INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SHOWERS BUT MOST LIKELY EARLY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 920 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS
AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SPEEDS BELOW 10
KNOTS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 FEET. RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING WINDS TO A SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION...BUT AGAIN REMAINING LIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE THE PEAK OF THE LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE
EAST NORTHEAST AT 16-17 SECONDS...DECREASING TO 14-15 SECONDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SAT...AS MENTIONED IN LONG TERM DISCUSSION THERE WERE
SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FRONT THAT WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SOME TIME ON MONDAY. BLENDED
ECMWF/SREF/GFS/PREV FCST FOR WINDS WITH THIS FEATURE. SW WINDS ON
SUN WON`T GET TOO STRONG AHEAD OF THE FRONT PEAKING AROUND 15 KT
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 AND MOSTLY 3 TO 4 FT SEAS EXCEPT A FEW 5
FOOTERS IN THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH
THROUGH THE WATERS ON MONDAY AND BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH
PEAKING AROUND 20KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT DURING THIS
TIME AND HAVE SEAS BUILD TO UP TO 6 OR EVEN 7 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISH WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...HSA/RSB
MARINE...CGG/RSB







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