Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 282328
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
728 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT BACK NORTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM THURSDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND HOURLY
TEMPS THIS EVENING. WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED NEAR ALBEMARLE SOUND
WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN VCTY. LATEST MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATED ISOLATED TO SCT CONVECTIVE THREAT LATE EVENING INTO
OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY NRN SECTIONS AS FRONT GRADUALLY PUSHES
S...THUS NO CHANGE TO LOW CHC POPS NRN HALF OF AREA. MIN TEMPS OKAY.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERING NRN ZONES WILL
SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH THRU MOST OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE CONTS TO SHOW BAND OF PRECIP WTR AROUND 1.75
INCHES ALONG FRONTAL ZONE WITH MODEST INSTAB. SATL SHOWS CU
DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN VA AND NRN NC AND EXPECT COULD SEE SOME WDLY
SCT TO SCT CONVECTION FORM ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE LATE TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. WILL CONT SMALL POPS NRN TIER THRU THE EVENING AND
THEN CONT NRN HALF MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH FRONT CROSSING. LOWS
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER WITH PC SKIES MOST AREAS...LOWS MAINLY 65
YO 70 INLAND AND 70 TO 75 CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER SRN TIER
FRI. MDLS SHOW SOME SPOTTY QPF OVER THE REGION AND FOR NOW JUST
WENT WITH ISOLD POP ALL AREAS AS TO HARD TO PINPOINT LOCATIONS OR
TIME THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR. FORCING ALOFT WILL BE LIMITED WITH
BROAD RDG JUST TO THE S. WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER MOST AREAS WITH
ONSHORE FLOW...HIGHS AROUND 80 N TO AROUND 90 FAR SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THU...WEAK SFC FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AND DISSIPATING LATE SAT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN EXPECTED WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE FORCING.
BETTER CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION MON THROUGH WED AS UPPER
RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER
FLOW. WILL CONTINUE 30/40 POPS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH TIMING AND
POSITION. ECMWF MUCH FASTER THAN GFS BRINGING THE FRONT INTO
EASTERN NC WED BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE MUCH QUICKER...AND GFS NOT
BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL THU NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN
THE 70S. AT THIS TIME TUE LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD
WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 20C.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OVER NEAR KRWI-KMQI LINE
EARLY THIS EVENING BUT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH S OVERNIGHT...THEN RETURN
N FRI AFTN. ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PSBL WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS THIS
ISSUANCE. GFS MOS IS INDICATING IFR VSBYS FOR ALL SITES BUT KEWN
LATE TONIGHT WHILE NAM KEEPS VSBYS MAINLY VFR. MODEL CONDENSATION
PRES DEFICIT FIELDS DO SUPPORT SOME LOWER VSBYS AT KPGV AND KSIO
LATE AND FCST PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS THERE AFTER 06Z WITH TEMPO GROUP
FOR IFR AT KPGV. VFR WILL RETURN WITH HEATING FRI MORNING...BUT
SCT-BKN SCU LIKELY WITH FRONTAL BNDRY IN VCTY THROUGH THE DAY ALONG
WITH ISOLATED TSTM THREAT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION THIS
WEEKEND...THEN INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES MON/TUE WITH PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRI/...
AS OF 630 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT OVER FAR NRN TIER WILL
SLOWLY PUSH S AND STALL OVER SRN TIER LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI. OVER
SRN TIER CURRENT SW FLOW 10 TO 15 KTS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME WNW
LATE TONIGHT AND GRAD ESE OF FRI. OVER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS ENE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF FRONT TONIGHT AND CONT FRI WITH
SPEEDS LIGHT TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS FRI. SEAS OF 3 TO
5 FT THIS EVENING...HIGHEST FAR OUTER CNTRL WTRS...WILL DIMINISH
TO 2 TO 4 FT OVERNIGHT AND CONT IN THAT RANGE FRI.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THU...OVERALL FAIRLY QUIET AND BENIGN CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
STALLED OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH AND DISSIPATING LATE SAT. UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH
OFFSHORE WILL OVERALL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WINDS
BECOMING S/SW SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...GENERALLY 5-15KT. SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD 2-4FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD/JBM





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