Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 282114 CCA
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
413 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THEN PASS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN FROM W. CAA WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT BUT DRY AIRMASS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND 20 INLAND WITH UPR 20S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WAA WILL DEVELOP OVER AREA AS SFC HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE AND FRONT APPROACHES FROM W. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS WELL...BUT ENOUGH INSOLATION
EXPECTED...COMBINED WITH LOW LVL THICKNESS INCREASES...TO RAISE
TEMPS TO NEAR 50 SRN INLAND SECTIONS WITH MID 40S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM WED...FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PASS THROUGH E NC THUR
NIGHT. MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THUR NIGHT THROUGH FRI
MORNING WITH THIS SYSTEM. DESPITE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE... A
PERIOD OF DECENT LOW/MID LEVEL FGEN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF QPF FALLING THROUGH FRI
MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE MILD AND ANY PRECIP WILL BE ALL LIQUID WITH
LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID/UPR 30S THUR NIGHT.

SHORT WAVE AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON FRI WITH CAA BRINGING
CHILLY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S COMBINED WITH
NW WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE ITS IN THE 30S DURING
THE DAY EVEN WITH FULL SUNSHINE. WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FRI NIGHT
THOUGH LOWS WELL DOWN IN THE 20S WITH A LINGERING BREEZE WILL FEEL
LIKE THE TEENS.

COLD HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ON SAT WITH THICKNESSES ON PAR WITH ECMENS
MEAN SUGGESTIVE OF HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 40S...WITH SOME
30S ON THE OBX. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER SO APPARENT T`S WILL IMPROVE.
SAT NIGHT WILL SEE MODERATING TEMPS DESPITE MAINLY CALM WINDS. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INC AS WAA ALOFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
NEXT SYSTEM. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPR 20S MAY BE REALIZED PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT BEFORE A RISING TEMP TREND ENSUES.

DISAGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL SUITE COMES INTO PLAY ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. A BROAD SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. LARGE SPREAD AMONGST
GFS ENSEMBLES WITH PLACEMENT OF WEAK LOW PRES...AND LARGE SPREAD IN
ECM ENS MEMBERS INDICATIVE OF NON CONSISTENCY WITHIN MODEL SCHEME
AND BETWEEN MODELS THEMSELVES. DESPITE THE INCONSISTENCIES...IT DOES
APPEAR A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO AS PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE WITH THE SYSTEM DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING. GFS
MOS TEMPS SUN AFTERNOON APPEAR TOO HIGH AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUGGEST HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50 DEGREE
RANGE...MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMENS MEAN TEMPS. THIS SYSTEM ALSO
APPEARS TO BE ALL LIQUID AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING TOO WARM FOR FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIP.

SYSTEM EXITS ON MONDAY WITH REINFORCING COLD HIGH PRES BUILDING IN
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
CHILLY TEMPS IN THE 20S MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD.
TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TREND WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND
HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
THE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WITH A NW WINDS FLOW...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIBLE. GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITHIN NEXT TWO HOURS AND REMAIN AROUND
10 KNOTS UNTIL EARLY EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ABOVE 15
KFT. NOT EXPECTING...ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT AS THERE IS A DRY AIRMASS
OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER THERE IS A POSSIBLE CHANCE OF STREAM FOG
NEAR THE VICINITY OF PGV AND EWN. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM WED...A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THUR NIGHT. A STRAY SHOWER MAY FALL BUT SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
VFR AS ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MAINLY SUNNY BUT WINDY ON FRI AS WIND GUSTS BUILD TO 20 TO 30 KT
FROM THE NW DURING THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ARRIVES SUN NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...CAA WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
DROPPING TO 10-15 BY MORNING. SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS WATERS
THU MORNING...THEN OFFSHORE DURING AFTN...RESULTING IN LIGHT/VRBL
WINDS BECOMING SW 10-15 KT LATE. DROPPED SCA FOR PAMLICO SOUND EARLY
WITH WIND GUSTS BELOW 25 KT.

NWPS INITIALIZED BETTER WITH 6-9 FT SEAS NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS THIS
AFTN...AND USED BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FCST. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 6
FT SRN WATERS BY LATE EVENING...THEN OVER NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS BY
THU MORNING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM WED...GENERALLY POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN
THE LONG TERM WITH SEVERAL STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH
THE WATERS. FIRST FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE THUR NIGHT WITH GUSTY
SW WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT AND LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS
TURN NW AND INC FRI...AND COULD REACH GALE FORCE FRI EVENING AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE. BEST CHANCES FOR GALES WILL
BE THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THOUGH MAY COME CLOSE OR REACH
GALES FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. WINDS
SLOWLY DIMINISH ON SAT AS HIGH PRES APPROACHES WITH WINDS TURNING
NORTHERLY. SEAS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE EARLY
SAT MORNING BEFORE FINALLY DROPPING BELOW 6 FT SOMETIME LATE SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WINDS TURN TO THE SW ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM SET TO APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NEITHER WW3 NOR NWPS PICKING UP ON 11-13 SECOND PERIOD SWELL
OBSERVED ALONG OBX TODAY...THUS RELIED ON PERSISTENCE FCST FOR THIS
EVENING WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SEAS OVERNIGHT. THUS EXPECT HIGH
SURF CONDITIONS OF 8-12 FOOT SURF TO CONTINUE UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT...WITH MINOR OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/BM
MARINE...JBM/TL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JBM








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