Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 211521

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1021 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

High pressure will continue to extend over the area from the
Western Atlantic through Thursday and produce a very warm
southerly flow across the region. A backdoor cold front will
move into the area Thursday night then dissipate or lift north
Friday. Another front will move through the area Sunday night
into early Monday.


As of 1010 AM Wed...Record warm temperatures are likely today,
as a record breaking ridge remains anchored offshore. This
upper ridge produced the highest 500 MB height (593 dm) ever
recorded at MHX/HAT in the winter months (as well as Mar/Apr) on
this morning`s sounding. Persistent southerly flow continues
across the region, and has enabled some low clouds to develop
inland earlier this morning. These clouds are slowly burning
off, but will keep inland locations cooler this morning. Also,
due to the persistent southerly flow, satellite indicates the
Gulf Stream has pushed closer to the coast, with some warm
eddies only 10-15 miles off the coast, south of Cape Hatteras.
This has enabled temperatures to remain very warm across the
usually cooler southern coast.

Record breaking high temps in the low 80s are expected away from
the immediate coast, with low to mid 70s expected near the
beaches. Only exception will be the Outer Banks north of Cape
Hatteras where southerly flow will come off the cold waters of
the Pamlico Sound and limit high temps to the upper 60s to low

Some sea fog remains over some of the area, and should burn off
by early afternoon. An isolated shower or two will be possible
but with dry mid level air and lack of significant forcing will
leave out of the forecast.


As of 250 AM Wednesday...As has been the case the past several
nights, low clouds and areas of fog are expected to redevelop
around midnight as the low levels become saturated underneath
the nocturnal inversion. Tough call on whether winds decouple
and fog becomes widespread and dense as the forecast pressure
gradient should be sufficient to keep a light southerly breeze
overnight. Low clouds appear to be the better bet. The
combination of low level mixing and clouds will continue to
produce mild overnight lows. MOS seems on the cool side given
temperatures the past couple of nights so will go slightly above
MOS most locations with lows in the lower 60s.


As of 320 AM Wednesday...Unseasonably warm temperatures will
continue across the region through late week as strong high
pressure lingers offshore providing a warm S/SW flow into the
region. A strong cold front will help produce a threat of
showers by late in the weekend into early next week.

Thursday through Saturday...Strong high pressure off the east
coast coupled with anomalously high mid-level heights and a warm
S/SW surface flow will lead to near-record to record level high
temperatures for the late portion of this week into the weekend.
Inland temperatures are likely to exceed 80 degrees with highs
well into the 70s coast each day. Mild overnight lows in the 50s
are also expected. Thursday and Friday look dry with strong
subsidence associated with surface and upper-level ridging, but
deeper moisture will ride around the periphery of the ridge by
Saturday producing a small chance of showers.

Sunday through Monday Night...The GFS and European models have
become wetter for this period given increased precipitable water
values and lift ahead of approaching strong cold front. PoPs
have been increased for this period with Monday/Monday evening
looking to be the wettest period. Sunday will be quite warm in
the SW flow ahead of the front, but temperatures should be
considerably cooler, still above normal, but in the 60s for

Tuesday and Wednesday...Strong dry high pressure will build over
the region Tuesday and Wednesday. While cooler, temperatures
will still be above seasonal normal with highs mainly in the
upper 50s to mid 60s and lows primarily in the 40s.


Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 250 AM Wednesday...Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions,
especially in ceilings early this morning, are forecast to
dissipate by mid morning with prevailing VFR conditions then
persisting through mid evening. As has occurred the past 2
nights, low clouds and areas of fog will re-develop around
midnight with prevailing IFR conditions expected.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 325 AM Wednesday...Anticipate mostly VFR conditions
Thursday and Friday, except for some brief morning reductions in
patchy fog. An increase in lower ceilings, perhaps MVFR, is
possible Saturday and especially Sunday with a better coverage
of showers ahead of an oncoming cold front.


Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 1015 AM Wednesday...Dense fog advisory for sea fog
continues for the coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras, the
southern coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Lookout, and the
Albemarle Sound and Alligator River through noon due to
sea/sound fog. Conditions should improve in the afternoon.

No change to the overall pattern with
Atlantic high pressure continuing over the waters through
tonight producing southerly flow 5 to 15 kt and 2 to 4 ft seas.
Main hazard will be sea fog which will reduce visibilities below
1 nm at times, especially north of Hatteras where the coldest
SST`s are observed.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...With high pressure offshore, expect a
continuation of SW winds around 10 knots or so with seas 2-4
feet. May see a brief swing around to a NW/N wind Thursday night
and Friday before returning to SW Friday night. Gradient
increases as a cold front approaches from the west later on
Saturday into Sunday. SW winds will increase to 15-25 knots,
with seas increasing to as high as 6-7 feet on Sunday,
especially over the central and Sunday waters.


Temps could approach and/or break records this week.

Record High Temps 2/21 (Today)

Cape Hatteras      75/1989  (KHSE)
Greenville         80/1922  (COOP)
Jacksonville       78/2011  (KNCA)
Kinston            79/2011  (COOP)
Morehead City      71/1971  (COOP)
New Bern           79/2011  (KEWN)

Record High Temps 2/22 (Thursday)

Cape Hatteras      76/1971  (KHSE)
Greenville         80/2003  (COOP)
Jacksonville       77/2003  (KNCA)
Kinston            78/2003  (COOP)
Morehead City      72/1971  (COOP)
New Bern           80/1980  (KEWN)


MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ130-131-150-152-


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