Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 110837
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
337 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...CORE OF COLD AIR MASS WILL BE DEEPEST OVER
AREA TODAY...THUS EXPECT MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGS COLDER THAN WED EVEN
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS. HIGHS MAINLY 38-42
ACROSS AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...EXCELLENT RADIAIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES..LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
ATMOS. SOME CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN LATE AS WEAK WAA
DEVELOPES WITH CHANNELED SHRT WV MOVES IN FROM NW...BUT STILL
EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO LOW-MID 20S INLAND WITH MID-UPR 20S
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS ARCTIC AIRMASS INVADES EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY FRIDAY.

CHALLENGING FORECAST CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH FRIDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SE STATES STRENGTHENS MOVING ALONG THE NC COAST. 00Z
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THOUGH STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING QPF AMTS. CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS
AND QPF AMTS...HIGHEST ALONG THE E OF HWY 17. THERMAL
PROFILES...CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES AND SREF PLUMES SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS LIGHT SNOW LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE
REGION. THEN EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM NOSE
DEVELOPING ALOFT. SLEET IS EXPECTED TO MIX IN WITH THE SNOW ESP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...THEN TRANSITION TO SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN. PRECIP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...FROM SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS
TO CRYSTAL COAST EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO PRED RAIN LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN POSSIBLY CHANGE BACK TO WINTRY MIX
AS IT ENDS. INCREASED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND ADDED LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS TIME HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE PTYPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN MORE SNOW
BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET. THINK 0.5-2" POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER...AND LESS THAN AN INCH SOUTH. THOUGH ANY MIXING
WITH SLEET WOULD CUT DOWN ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHT ICE
ACCRETION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE PRECIP COULD TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FRI
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS WARM NOSE DEVELOPS.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS TO
THE REGION. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO -15 TO
-20C BY SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND. SOME RECORD LOW MAX VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS 35-40 DEGREES SAT...AND THEN UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THE OUTER BANKS COULD SEE
SOME FLURRIES ON AND OFF SAT INTO SUN...THOUGH THINK MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS LIKELY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SE
STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
REGARDING THE TIMING...STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THEN SFC LOW.
MODELS NOW TRACKING THE LOW INLAND...WITH STRONG SLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NC. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO COULD SEE SOME
TSTMS...POSSIBLY STRONG/SEVERE...THOUGH WILL NOT MENTION IN
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS MON...THEN
INCREASING TO HIGH CHANCE MON NIGHT AND TUE. PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS
-RA/-SN MIX MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. TEMPS
LOOK TO REBOUND AND RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO...HIGHS MON 40-50 DEGREES
AND TUE IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING AS A COLD/DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS
THE REGION. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUSTS TO 20 KT DURING PEAK
HEATING TODAY...DIMINISHING LATE AFTN.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRI
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NC COAST. IFR
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...AS PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE
TERMINALS. STILL A CHALLENGING PTYPE FORECAST BUT THINK ALL
TERMINALS WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW THEN TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
DURING FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUM
POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW WIND GUSTS 20-25KT SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...ON-GOING CAA WILL PRODUCE GUSTY W-NW WINDS
ACROSS WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING SPEEDS
EXPECTED AFTN INTO TONIGHT. GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL PERSIST OVER OUTER
WATERS UNTIL EARLY EVENING...BUT ENDING OVER PAMLICO SOUND EARLY
THIS AFTN AND ADJUSTED SCA ENDING TIME THERE ACCORDINGLY.

NWPS INITIALIZED BETTER WITH CURRENT SEAS 6-8 FT OFF OREGON INLET
AND DIAMOND SHOALS...AND IT IS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS
FCST. HEIGHTS WILL DROP BELOW 6 FT SRN WATERS THIS AFTN AND NRN
AND CENTRAL WATERS THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NC
COAST FRIDAY...WHILE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW, MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE WINDS AOB 15KT FRI WITH SEAS 2-4FT. EXPECT STRONGER WINDS
TO DEVELOP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-9FT. WINDS WILL PEAK SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS AND SEAS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE SUN AS HIGH CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SUN
NIGHT N/NE WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS WILL VEER
THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING SE 10-20KT WITH SEAS 3-5FT LATE MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD


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