Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 170346

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1046 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017

A warm front to the south will lift north and reach the southern
coast tonight. It will then lift out of the area Tuesday. A cold
front will move through from the northwest Wednesday, followed by
another cold front Friday. A strong frontal system will move
through Sunday night into Monday.


As of 1045 PM Monday...
Cloud cover again impacting our hourly temp grids and I continued
to slow the overnight trend downward in temps tonight. Otherwise
no major changes. The previous AFD is below...

As of 720 PM Monday... Slight adjustments
to hourly temps this evening to bring them up because the cloud
cover is keeping temps from falling much. Otherwise the forecast
is in great shape. Just a quick note about our radar in case you
missed the free text message (FTMMHX) earlier this evening. The
radar is back up and running. However, some more adjustments will
be needed first thing Tuesday morning to fix some of the settings.
You may notice that the radar is running "hot" near the site
itself in base reflectivity and the velocity is off. We hope to
get that straightened out Tuesday morning. The previous AFD is

As of 245 pm Mon...Stationary front to the
south will lift north tonight. Models show low-level isentropic
lift along the coast overnight so included slight chance Outer
Banks and coastal sections of Carteret and Onslow counties.
Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid 40s.


As of 245 pm Mon...Warm front will lift out quickly during the
day as southwest flow develops. Will carry a band of slight chance
PoPs across the far north in the morning. Models show showers
developing in the afternoon across the northern half ahead of cold
front approaching from the northwest. For now will carry only
slight chance. Much warmer high temps with southwest flow, in the
upper 50s/lower 60s northeast to upper 60s southwest.


As of 305 AM Monday...Temps warm well above normal Tuesday and
Wednesday, then remain slightly above normal Thursday through the
weekend. The precipitation forecast is starting to come into focus
as the 00Z models are in better agreement. It now looks like
Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday should be mainly dry with wet
weather expected Wednesday, Friday and Sunday.

Tuesday through Sunday...High pressure will shift off the coast
Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the west late. Warm SW
return develops across the area Tuesday and continues into
Wednesday ahead of the front. Forcing is weak, but the northward
passage of a warm front across the area Tuesday combined with
marginal moisture will lead to a risk for isolated afternoon
showers. Tuesday night and Wednesday will see the passage of
significant shortwave across the mid Atlantic which will push a
surface cold front across the area with the best chance for
widespread showers and perhaps a thunderstorm and PoPs will be
increased to likely. Well above normal Temps are expected Tuesday
and Wednesday in the prefrontal SW flow with highs around 70 both
days. Temps could be warmer if there is more insolation than is
currently expected.

Sunday into early next a stronger area of low pressure will
affect the area with showers redeveloping across the area. Heavy
rain and possible thunderstorms will be possible Sunday night into
Monday as the system moves across the area. Temperatures are
expected to remain mild with highs in the 60s expected both days.


Short Term /through Tuesday Afternoon/...
As of 730 PM Monday...MVFR conditions are currently present
all terminals this evening. A tricky forecast with confidence
highest that MVFR cigs remain at the farthest inland sites (KISO
and KPGV) with more uncertainty toward the coast. Based on model
soundings we show a slow improvement to VFR at KOAJ and KEWN
toward 04Z, with MVFR cigs again possible after 10Z. Still some
uncertainty here but model consensus is good that after that VFR
window MVFR cigs will return and hang tough from mid Tuesday
morning into the early afternoon. Inland MVFR cigs expected to
persist through late Tuesday morning with slow improvement to VFR
possible by end of the TAF period.

In addition to MVFR restrictions in low clouds, some patchy MVFR
fog is likely across the region as winds calm.  Any fog should
dissipate after sunrise Tuesday.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 305 AM Monday...Scattered to numerous showers are expected
Tuesday night into Wednesday with sub VFR conditions. Drier NW
flow Thursday should lead to prevailing VFR conditions. Scattered
to numerous showers are again possible Friday with sub VFR


Short Term /through Tue/
As of 245 pm Mon...Light winds and seas in the short term. A warm
front to the south will reach the south coast tonight and lift
north of the waters Tuesday. North to northeast flow tonight will
become west to southwest Tuesday afternoon. Winds will average
5-10 knots with seas 1-3 feet.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 305 AM Monday...The passage of a cold front is expected to
produce SCA conditions late Tuesday night through Wednesday,
otherwise conditions will remain below advisory levels this
period. Tuesday light northerly winds will become light south
with 1 to 3 ft seas expected. Winds will become SW and increase
to 15 to 25 kt late Tuesday night and continue through late
Wednesday with seas building to 4 to 6 ft Wed/Wed night over the
outer southern and central waters and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. Winds
are then forecast to shift to NW 10-20 kt behind the front Wed
night and Thu with 3-5 ft seas subsiding to 2 to 4 ft Thu.
Light/variable winds are expected Thursday night, then winds are
expected to become S/SE Friday and increase to 10 to 20 kt late
with seas building from 1 to 3 ft Thursday night to 2 to 4 ft
late Friday.




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