Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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396
FXUS62 KMHX 172230
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
630 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure moves off the coast today. A cold front will
move into the area this weekend and stall. This front will move
south of the area early next week. High pressure builds back in
by Tuesday. Another cold front will approach the area in the
middle of next week, with unsettled weather expected to
continue.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 630 PM Thursday...Latest sfc analysis shows weak 1016mb
high pressure over the area, with weak warm front across SE NC
just south of ILM. Latest radar imagery shows showers and
storms moving through the northern coastal plain early this
evening, with the southern portion of the convection weakening.
Storms this afternoon formed along and just ahead of the weak
warm front. Latest mesoanalysis shows dewpoints in the mid/upper
70s, MU CAPE values 2-3000 J/kg, and 0-6 km shear 10-15 kt. The
main threat for the next hour or two will be locally heavy
rainfall, with PWATS of 2.3". Expect convection to overall wane
with loss of heating this evening. Mainly dry weather expected
for the overnight with patchy fog possible where we saw rains
this afternoon and evening. Toward daybreak a shower or two may
move onshore across the southern coastal counties, as the
boundary mentioned above lifts northward.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM Thursday...The warm front mentioned above moves
into our area Friday, with a better chance for more of the area
to see scattered storms. If you take a look at what is happening
to our southwest today near Wilmington, this should give us a
good snap shot for our weather Friday. As dewpoints creep into
the mid to upper 70s for more of the area, and highs push the
lower 90s, head indices above 100 are likely. We will continue
to mention the possibility of heat indices near 105 in our HWO.
The shift tonight may have to consider a heat advisory if
confidence grows that we will exceed 105 for a few hours.
MLCAPES around 2,000 J/KG and lifted indices around -5 support
the chance for some severe storms Friday afternoon. SPC
continues our area in a general thunderstorm risk but soundings
do show slightly better shear and wind fields than today, with
the warm front moving through.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 PM Thursday... Unsettle conditions will continue
Friday night and Saturday with the approach of a cold front in
the area, before drier conditions begin Sunday into early next
week. A significant shortwave will drop down mid week into the
area leading to better rain chances by mid week.

Friday night through Saturday... The approaching cold front
will continue to bring an increase of low level moisture and
instability across the area Friday night and Saturday...leading
to showers and thunderstorms. Instability will be especially
high for Saturday with forecast CAPE values in excess of 3000
J/kg and LI value around -9 during peak heating. Will have high
chance PoPs Friday night and Saturday. A decent mid-level
shortwave may also keep storms going over the northern tier
Friday night and will have high chance PoPs north and along the
coast Friday night. Overnight lows are expect to range mid/upper
70s inland to around 80 degrees along OBX. Saturday will be
warm and humid with highs near 90 inland and mid 80s along the
coast.

Sunday through Tuesday... Models continue to show a drier
trends with PoPs starting Sunday through Tuesday as a mid-level
ridge expands across the area leading to hot temperatures and
less convection as precipitable water values drop to 1.6 inches
or less for a couple of days. There may be a few storms along
the sea breeze, but PoPs will be below climo through this
period. Expect high temps near 90 degrees inland and around mid
80 along the coast. Overnight lows in the low 70s inland to
mid/upper 70s along the coast.

Wednesday and Thursday...The mid-upper level ridge starts to
break down as a shortwave drops down from the Great Lake region
and into the Middle-Atlantic/Southeast region on Wednesday, then
cold front approaches the area towards the end of the period.
This will lead to an increase chances for showers and
thunderstorms starting Wednesday into the latter part of next
week. Expect high temps in the mid/upper 80s inland and mid
80s along the coast. Overnight lows in the low 70s inland to mid
70s along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /through Friday/...
As of 630 PM Thursday...Challenging forecast overnight with the
potential for sub-VFR fog and stratus again, though confidence
in development is low at this time. Mixed bag of VFR and IFR
conditions across the terminals early this evening. Expect
ongoing convection to weaken in the next hour or two becoming
pred dry overnight. Light southerly winds should limit
widespread fog development, but could see some patchy fog and
possibly IFR stratus develop inland. Scattered showers and
storms likely to develop Friday afternoon and early evening.

Long Term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 330 PM Thursday...VFR conditions will dominate most of
the period, except for Friday Night and Saturday as sub-VFR
conditions will be possible under showers and thunderstorms
along with locally heavy downpours. A drier pattern will start
Sunday and improve further through the end of the period. Some
early morning fog and patchy stratus may also be possible in
areas that receive decent rainfall through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Friday/...
As of 630 PM Thursday...Latest obs show S/SE winds 5-10 kt, with
some gusts up to 15 kt across the outer southern waters with
seas around 2 ft. Very pleasant boating weather expected through
this evening. A warm front will lift through the waters tonight
and dissipate into Friday. As this happens winds will veer
toward the south early tonight, and southwest after midnight.
Speeds will increase from 10 to 15 early tonight, to 10 to 20
kts after midnight tonight through Friday. In response seas will
build to 3 feet by daybreak and 4 feet by Friday afternoon.

Long Term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 330 PM Thursday... A cold front will approach the area
from the west, tightening the pressure gradient and increasing
winds Friday night SW 15-20 knots and then becoming SW 10-15
knots Saturday. Seas are expected to slightly build Friday night
in response with the increase winds, expect 3-4 ft with possible
5 ft over the outer waters. The cold front is expected to
dissipate over Eastern NC Sunday, allowing winds to remain S/SW
around 10 knots or less through the period. Seas will start to
subside Saturday night and expect seas to generally be 2-3 ft
through Tuesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EH
NEAR TERM...EH/CQD
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...EH/CQD/BM
MARINE...EH/CQD/BM



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