Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 061739
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
139 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN INLAND TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE ENTIRE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX FOR MOST ACTIVITY
EXPECTED OVER NE SECTIONS NEXT 1-2 HOURS...THEN SHIFTING INLAND
WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ON OUTFLOWS WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC ALONG
COAST. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...HOURLY READINGS WILL BE TRICKY
AS HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DROP TEMPS 5-10 DEGS QUICKLY.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 1000 AM MONDAY...INCREASED POPS TO 50% WITH SCT
SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS WORDING FOR COASTAL SECTIONS REST OF MORNING.
NO CHANGE TO AFTN FCST WITH HIGHER POPS SHIFTING INLAND.

SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS ARE CONTINUING ALONG COAST THIS MORNING
WITH DUE TO WEAK SHRT WV MOVING THROUGH IN DEEP S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF
UPR LOW. LATEST MESO MODELS SUPPORT BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STMS SPREADING INLAND WITH HEATING AND SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTN. 12Z SOUNDING PW 1.86 A BIT HIGHER THAN PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
INDICATING MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT
ISOLATED PULSE DOWNBURST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPS ON TRACK.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 635 AM MONDAY...INCREASED POPS S CNTRL SECTIONS FOR SCT
CONVECTION THRU MID MORN. ALSO INCRD CLD COVER FOR WRN AND CNTRL
AREAS FOR MORN ST AND CONVECTION.

THE FRONT ALG THE NC/VA BORDER WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH TODAY AS
THE SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROF LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST. A SHORTWAVE
WILL AFFECT THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROF LIFTS NORTH AND WILL CONT
CHC POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. TYPICAL OFFSHORE HIGH/INLAND TROF
SFC PATTERN WILL PREVAIL BUT UPR LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO NE
WITH MORE SHRT WV ENERGY AFFECTING ERN NC TODAY AND WILL CONT
30-50 POPS AREAWIDE. MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS
NEAR 90 INLAND TO MID- UPR 80S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...CONVECTION SHOULD WANE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS
EVE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HTG HOWEVER WILL LEAVE LOW POPS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH A WARM MOIST SW FLOW CONTG ACRS THE AREA.
EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LWR 70S INLAND TO THE MID AND UPR 70S
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY WEEK WITH LIMITED
CONVECTION UNTIL POSSIBLY THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT THE AREA
WITH UPPER HEIGHTS RISING AND A NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN
WITH LOW CHANCE INLAND AND SLIGHT CHANCE COAST. TEMPERATURES RISE
TO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH MUGGY MID 70S AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INLAND WITH
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE AND ONCE AGAIN ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE OF THE ROUTINE VARIETY WITH 20-30 PCT
PROBABILITIES.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT..LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
WILL LEAD TO HOT TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS INLAND REACHING THE MID
TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S. AGAIN RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER HEIGHTS LOWER WITH
INCREASED MID-LEVEL ENERGY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. OUTSIDE RAIN
AREAS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM...WELL INTO THE 90S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...THE BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD WASH OUT BY LATE
SUNDAY WITH THE PATTERN GOING BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN WITH WEAK TROUGHING INLAND AND A DIURNAL THREAT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WITH A TROUGH SITUATED TO THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE...CONDITIONS WILL BE ANALOGOUS TO PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE VSBYS/CIGS TO DECREASE ACCOMPANYING
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ERODE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THIS...FOG AND LOW STRATUS MAY FORM
INLAND...MAINLY BETWEEN 09-12Z TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE IN THE MORNING...ANTICIPATE ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
MIX OUT WITH CU DEVELOPING BY MID-MORNING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME...ALTHOUGH AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY
BRIEFLY REDUCE CONDITIONS TO SUB-VFR. PATCHY STRATUS/FOG ALSO
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE
HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. S-SW WINDS AROUND
10 KT WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 GUSTING TO 20 KT THIS AFTN.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 635 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES. LATEST BUOY OBS ARE SHOWING
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 KTS AND SEAS 2-4 FT.
TYPICAL OFFSHORE HIGH/INLAND TROF PATTERN WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH SW WINDS 10-20 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM MONDAY...A FAIRLY STEADY STATE MARINE FORECAST FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE BERMUDA RIDGE HOLDING FIRM OFFSHORE
AND WEAK TROUGHING OVER INLAND AREAS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS
GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC/JBM
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/LEP
MARINE...JAC/CTC/JBM


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