Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 280552

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1252 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

High pressure offshore will circulate warm air across North
Carolina through Wednesday. A cold front will cross the region
early Thursday morning. High pressure will then build in behind
the front through the weekend.


As of 1245 am Tue...Forecast in good shape. No changes to zone
needed. BKN cloud cover will continue through tonight with mild
conditions due to the clouds and inc in TD`s. Went with a
MET/ECM MOS blend due to the light easterly flow as GFS appears
too warm. Lows range from 48-53 interior to 55-60 on the
immediate beach front. Weak coastal trough will migrate ashore
of the Outer Banks overnight which will bring iso/sct showers to
those zones so have left in 20-30 pops there. With the inc WAA
tonight could see an iso shower rest of the area so a general 20
pop elsewhere.


As of 3 PM Mon...Heights/thicknesses rise further on Tuesday
with well above climo expected. Low level thicknesses
approaching 1380M jives with warmer MOS vals in forecasting
highs in the 75-80 degree range interior to 70-75 on the
beaches. Will advertise no higher than a 20 pop as forcing is
very weak, though with inc WAA and TD`s soaring through the
upr 50s/low 60s cannot rule out a renegade shower or
thunderstorm developing.


As of 300 PM Monday...The models have come into better
agreement regarding the weather across our region through early
next week. It will remain very warm through Wednesday with only
a brief cool down Thursday night through Saturday night
following the passage of a strong cold front early Thursday.
Temperatures are forecast to warm up again beginning Sunday into
early next week. Not much precipitation is expected over the
next 7 days with the best chance for measurable precipitation
Wednesday night ahead of the cold front.

Tuesday night...The trend has been for less of a chance for any
significant rainfall as best forcing remains to the north of the
region. Will hang on to broadbrush 20% PoP as moisture is
sufficient to produce a few showers. It will be very mild with
lows in the 60s (20 to 25 degrees above normal) which is what
would be normal for highs this time of year!

Wednesday...Guidance remain in good agreement that record
warmth will be possible with highs in the lower 80s as brisk
southerly flow prevails. Records for the day are listed below.
Not expecting any significant precipitation although an isolated
shower can`t be ruled out. Some fire weather concerns due to
the warmth and expected strong winds but forecast relative
humidities are 50 to 55% which is well above Red Flag criteria.

Wednesday night through Thursday night...A strong cold front
will move across the region late Wednesday night and is forecast
to be offshore by most of the models by 12Z Thursday. Will
maintain likely PoPs from the late evening through dawn and will
decrease PoPs rapidly after 12Z Thursday per latest model
consensus. SPC has our area in a "Marginal" risk for severe
weather, with the "Slight" risk area just to our west. With
unidirectional flow, main risks would be for damaging winds and
marginally severe hail. Although shear values will be high,
CAPES are forecast to be only around 700 g/kg and timing at
night could limit scope of severe risk our area with this
event. Mild lows in the 50s are expected Wednesday night and
continued mild but cooler Thursday with highs in the lower 60s.
Colder air begins to be felt Thursday night with lows in the
upper 30s to lower 40s.

Friday through Monday...The models remain in decent agreement
for this period. A dry secondary cold cold front will cross the
area Friday with highs around 60 degrees expected then high
pressure with seasonably cool and dry air will prevail across
the region through Saturday night. Low temperatures Friday night
are forecast to reach freezing or below inland and this could
be a concern for any sensitive vegetation that may have
prematurely started to grow due to the abnormal warmth of the
past couple of weeks. Highs Saturday will be in the 50s and lows
Saturday night night in the mid to upper 30s. Dry weather is
forecast to continue Sunday but with some moderation in
temperatures into the 60s as the high center moves offshore and
return SW flow redevelops across the area. The return flow may
be moist enough to support a low end shower risk Monday as temps
warm further back into the 70s.


Short term /through 18Z Tuesday/...
As of 1245 am Tue...High confidence of VFR condition will
persist through the TAF period as high pressure will dominate
the region. Mid-high clouds will move through the area due to
a weak mid level disturbance approaching the area, meanwhile
low stratus clouds will continue to move ashore through the
night. Hi-Res models are showing developing showers with this
weak disturbance; have added the mention of VCSH for KOAJ. In
generally, after 12z expect SCT-BKN ceiling at 5kft. Winds will
be generally out of the east overnight then switch to S on
later today and increasing to 10 kt by this afternoon.

Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Sub VFR conditions mainly in ceilings are
possible Tuesday night in moist S-SW low level flow. VFR is
expected to prevail in warm sector conditions Wednesday then a
better chance of sub VFR with more widespread shower/tstm
coverage Wednesday night. Cooler and drier conditions and
prevailing VFR expected Thursday-Saturday as high pressure
influences the weather.


Short Term /Through Tuesday/...
As of 1245 am Tue...Current marine zones in good shape. No
changes needed. Latest NOAA/WXFLOW obs indicate light S to SE
winds across marine domain. Used a high res model blend for
forecasting winds through the period as these pick up timing and
placement of coastal trough moving ashore the OBX well. Winds
forecast to remain below SCA criteria. Seas will build as high
as 5 ft across the Gulf Stream waters where winds will be
highest. Elsewhere winds generally 5-10 kt. Winds will be
southerly through the day Tue as high pres shifts further
offshore though speeds will only be 5-15 kt through the day with
seas of 2-4 feet.

Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 300 PM Monday...A Gale Watch has been posted for the
Pamlico Sound and the southern and central waters for late
Wednesday and Wednesday evening as SW flow increases ahead of a
cold front. Rough marine conditions with gusty winds and
elevated seas are expected into Thursday. Increasing S-SW 20 to
25 kt winds expected Tuesday night late reaching 25 to 35 kt
late Wed into Wed evening with a low end Gale likely late
Wednesday and Wednesday evening. Winds shift to NW 15 to 25 kt
briefly behind the front late Wednesday night and diminish to
W/NW 5 to 15 kt Thu afternoon and night behind the initial cold
front. A secondary cold front is forecast to cross the waters
Friday afternoon with the flow becoming NW and increasing to 20
to 25 kt late Friday into Friday night. Winds Saturday are
forecast to diminish from NW 15 to 20 kt early to light and
variable late.

Seas expected to build to 5-8 feet outer waters late Tuesday
night, peaking at 8-12 feet Wednesday night. Seas will subside
below 6 ft Thursday afternoon and night then build back to 4 to
7 ft late Friday into Saturday morning. Seas are forecast to
subside 2 to 4 ft Saturday afternoon.


Record high temps for 03/01 (Wednesday)

Location       Temp/Year
New Bern    81/2012  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras  74/1976  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville     85/1962  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Kinston        87/1918  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville   82/1997  (KNCA AWOS)


MARINE...Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday
     night for AMZ135-152-154-156-158.


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