Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 012012
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
312 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
...INCREASING RAIN CHANCE MONDAY WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE...

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE AN INCREASING TREND
OVERNIGHT WITH VEERING FLOW FROM SURFACE AND ALOFT ACTING TO
INCREASE AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. LAYERED CLOUDINESS WL
BE LIKELY AT DAYBREAK WITH AN EVOLVING RAIN CHANCE FM NORTH TO
SOUTH DURING THE MORNING ONWARD. PSG OF THE FRONT AND ITS ASCD
REGIONAL SHORTWAVE WL FEATURE A STRONG JET MAXIMA (CONTAINING
WIND MAXIMA NR 150 KTS) AIDING PARCEL ASCENT ALONG WITH MID LEVEL
TEMPS NR -12C. PARTIAL SFC HEATING COMBINED WITH THE FORCED ASCENT
WL LEAD TO A SMALL BUT MENTIONABLE THUNDER CHC WITH NUMEROUS TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. LTST GUID SUGGESTS THE BULK OF RAINFALL WL EXIT
THE AREA BY EARLY MON EVE TURNING COOLER WITH A NW WIND SHIFT BY
DARK.

MON NIGHT...POST COLD FRONTAL CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION ENDING EARLY IN THE EVENING AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
FALLING BELOW 10 MPH BY MIDNIGHT. COLDER OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
U30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES ACROSS NORTH LAKE/NORTH VOLUSIA
COUNTIES...L/M40S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WITH M/U
40S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT L/M 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST.
WITH WINDS FALLING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT A WIND CHILL ADVISORY DOES NOT
SEEM FEASIBLE BUT IT WILL FEEL COLD AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE
WITH WHAT WIND THERE WILL BE COMBINED WITH THE CHILLIER TEMPERATURES.

TUE-WED...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUE WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE WED. AFTER A CHILLY START TUE MORNING...THE COOL AND DRY
AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY BE MODIFIED BY ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH WED.
CONSENSUS POPS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 15 PERCENT ON WED SO WILL GO WITH A
DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ON WED. THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IN
THE CENTRAL GULF MOVES CLOSER OVERNIGHT AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASES. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE AGAIN AT ODDS IN SPEED...STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF FEATURES SO LOW CONFIDENCE BEGINNING OVERNIGHT WED.
WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS 40 TO 50 PERCENT NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
AND TAPER DOWN TO 20 PERCENT FROM SOUTHERN OSCEOLA COUNTY THRU THE
TREASURE COAST. GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES A FEW TO SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL ON TUE WITH NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS AGAIN BY
WED.

THU-SAT...THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE THE MODEL
HANDLING OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL BE DAMPENING OUT AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A MORE CONFLUENT DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT AT LEAST
A WEAK LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH FROM THE GULF
ON THU. THE ECMWF SHOWS A LITTLE MORE DEFINITION OF THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE AND IS NOW A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE GFS WITH THE LOW. IN
ANY EVENT...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RAISE POPS TO AT LEAST 60-70
PERCENT ON THU.

THE LOW SHOULD PASS TO OUR EAST BY FRI WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE STRONGER ECMWF BRINGS MORE DRYING WHILE
THE GFS SHOWS WINDS SWINGING ONSHORE QUICKLY BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
WILL KEEP SMALL POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI THEN CONFINE THEM TO
THE COAST ON SAT. THE QUICKER ONSHORE FLOW ALSO WOULD LIMIT EXTENT
OF COLD ADVECTION...BUT CONSENSUS VALUES SHOW FRI-SAT TO BE AT LEAST
A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS THROUGH 02/06Z WITH SCT TO OCNL BKN CLOUD BASES NR FL
040-050 FT MNLY ALONG CST. DETERIORATING CONDS DVLPG AFT 02/06Z
WITH LLWS FORECAST DUE TO SUDDEN WIND TRANSITION TO AZIMUTH
200-210 AT 35-40KT AOA FL 015 FM 02/06Z-02/13Z. SCT-NMRS MVFR
CONDS IN SHRA WITH ISOLD TS AND BRIEF IFR CONDS DVLPG FM ISM-TTS
NWD AFT 02/15Z AND SPREADING SWD OVER REGION AFT 02/15Z.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...INCREASING WINDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS WELL
OFFSHORE REQUIRED EARLIER ISSUANCE OF SCA WHICH BEGAN THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE OUTER WATERS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET...ADVISORY
CONDS WL SPREAD OVER ALL THE WATERS EARLY MON MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING WITH APPROACH AND PSG OF THE COLD FRONT.

MON NIGHT...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR ALL LEGS UNTIL 09Z/4AM. IF/WHEN THE SCA IS FINALLY ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE CONDITIONS WILL STILL REMAIN POOR FOR SMALL CRAFT BOATING.
SEAS INITIALLY BUILDING TO 6-9 FT WELL OFFSHORE AND 5-7 FT NEAR
SHORE ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO AROUND 6 FT OFFSHORE/3-5 FT NEAR SHORE
BY DAYBREAK TUE MORNING.

TUE-FRI...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO EASE ON TUE BUT NORTH
WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS IN THE MORNING MAY LINGER AND KEEP CONDITIONS
POOR IN THE GULF STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL
THEN GRADUALLY BUILD SEAWARD THROUGH WED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SUPPORTING ABOUT A 10 KNOT ONSHORE WIND.

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON THU. WE DO NOT HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE IN WINDS YET WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT AS THE MODELS GET MORE
HONED IN ON IT...EXPECT A PERIOD OF INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW THU OR
THU NIGHT...THEN INCREASED NORTHERLY FLOW THU OVERNIGHT THRU FRI
NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN SEA HEIGHTS.

SEAS FALLING AREAWIDE TO 3-5 FT BY THE END OF TUE...3-4 FT TUE
NIGHT-THU...BUT WILL RAMP UP THU NIGHT 4-6 FT...THEN TOWARDS
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRI IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WINDS/SWELL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUE-FRI...FRONTAL BAND MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE LOW RH CONCERNS.
BRIEF COOLING/DRYING WILL OCCUR TUE BUT WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE
AND DIMINISH WITH CONTINUED NO LOW RH CONCERNS. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTENING IS FORECAST FOR THU WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.
BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN FOR FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  61  74  42  62 /  10  60  10  10
MCO  59  76  45  67 /  10  60  10  10
MLB  60  80  47  66 /  10  60  10  10
VRB  62  82  51  68 /  10  50  20  10
LEE  62  72  42  65 /  10  60  10  10
SFB  59  74  43  65 /  10  60  10  10
ORL  61  73  45  67 /  10  60  10  10
FPR  62  82  51  69 /  10  50  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK




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