Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMLB 010724
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
325 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...KMLB NEXRAD 88D SHOWS OCCASIONAL ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
MOVING FROM WEST CENTRAL FL INTO EAST CENTRAL FL EARLY THIS MORNING.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BLANKET OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION ALL SOUTH OF A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SITUATED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST U.S. THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS STILL LIES OVER THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA. MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHINESS CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. CAPE 915 MHZ PROFILER
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AVERAGE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS OFF THE
DECK UP TO AROUND 10.0 KFT. SURFACE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S.

TODAY-TONIGHT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE AROUND 2
INCHES OR HIGHER AREAWIDE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EDGING CLOSER TOWARD LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
TOWARD AROUND 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...EXCEPT BREEZY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS 15 TO 20 MPH...ALSO WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. AS THE RIDGE AXIS PRESSES NORTHWARD THE TREASURE COAST MAY
EXPERIENCE WINDS BECOMING SSE/SE IN THE AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE
WILL MAKE CLOUD COVER HARD TO OVERCOME FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE U80S TO L90S.

THE DEEP/STOUT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO TRAVERSE THE PENINSULA
WITH SHOWER COVERAGE FORECAST TO BECOME NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS. 500 MB TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN RANGE
BETWEEN -6 AND -7 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE 00Z GFS HIGHLIGHTS FAIRLY
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE EAST COAST/COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK
AND OUT OF THE SW OR W AT 15 TO 20 KTS. THE MAIN THREATS WITH
STRONGER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS TO
AROUND 50 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN A FEW CELLS.

MARINERS ON INLAND LAKES AS WELL AS ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL/NEAR
SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY WESTWARD
FOR DEVELOPING/APPROACHING STORMS. CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH A SCHC FOR A SHOWER WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALMOST EVERYWHERE. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S. S/SSW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO
AROUND 5 MPH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...WET PATTERN CONTINUES TO END THE WEEKEND WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE AND A SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS
THE NRN AND CENTRAL PENINSULA SOUTH OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
NEAR THE FL-GA BORDER. LOW LVL SW WINDS WILL INCREASE SOUTH OF A
STACKED H9-H8 LOW NEAR THE FL BIG BEND AND FUNNEL MOISTURE TOWARD
NRN SECTIONS INTO MID-DAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ENE TWD
LAKE COUNTY AND NRN AREAS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN SECTIONS INTO MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2-3 INCHES IN SPOTS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
WILL START THE DAY THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

MONDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WILL START TO WEAKEN AS
THE LOW LVL RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY NWD TOWARD LAKE OKEECHOBEE. DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE HIGHEST POPS AROUND 50
PCT ARE EXPECTED. NAM CONTINUES DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS SRN SECTIONS
WHILE GFS INDICATES DRYING IN THE H8-H7 LAYER AS RIDGE TRIES TO
NUDGE NORTHWARD FOR SRN AREAS. HAVE GONE HIGHER THAN GFS MOS POPS
BUT KEPT CONVECTION IN THE SCATTERED RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD
SEE SOME MORE MORNING SUN FOR SRN SECTIONS WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO
REACH THE LOWER 90S SOUTH OF UPPER 80S NRN SECTIONS.

TUE-THU...GFS STILL INSISTS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REACH E CENTRAL
FL BY MIDWEEK WITH SOME RATHER PRONOUNCED DRYING IN THE H8-H5 LAYER.
THIS SHOULD LOWER RAIN CHANCES TO THE SCATTERED RANGE WITH THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE MOVING TWD THE INTERIOR EACH AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP
POPS AROUND 40 PCT FOR MID WEEK BUT LOWER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
AND BEACHES WITH CONVECTION FOCUSING INLAND INTO LATE AFTN EACH DAY.
WILL SEE MORE SUNSHINE FOR MID WEEK WITH HIGHS INTO LOWER 90S FOR
MUCH OF E CENTRAL FL.

FRI-SAT...AN H5 TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE FROM THE FL PANHANDLE
FRIDAY TO THE NRN PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DROP INTO S GA AND FOCUS DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE NRN AREAS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS FOR THE START OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH 50 PCT CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S FOR LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...EARLY INITIATION AGAIN FOR SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN A DEEP SWRLY
FLOW PATTERN WITH SHRA/TSRA BECOMING SCT-NMRS AGAIN THROUGH THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. SKIES TO REMAIN CONSIDERABLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC WINDS STRONGER TODAY WITH S/SSW WINDS
INCREASING TOWARDS 15 KTS AND GUSTY AT TIMES. ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BACK TO S/SSE AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
SLOWLY BUILDS BACK NORTH ACROSS THE S/S-C FL PENINSULA.
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON MAY DISTORT THE WIND FIELD WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS THAN FORECAST. TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN
SHRA/TSRA. CELL MOVEMENT TOWARD THE E/NE AT 15 TO 20 KTS. VCTS/VCTS
FROM LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPO GROUPS ADDED AS
CONFIDENCE PERMITS. THREATS FROM CONVECTION CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL WIND
DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING AND WINDS WILL DECREASE.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS ACROSS SOUTH FL
AND IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY ADVANCE BACK NORTH TO AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. INHERITED CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS FOR
GUSTY S/SSW WINDS OFFSHORE/NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET...AND WITH
CURRENT BUOY OBS/SHIP REPORTS...WILL LIKELY KEEP THESE ONGOING FOR
4AM/08Z CWF ISSUANCE. CURRENT MODEL DATA SUGGESTS A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT RAMP BACK UP AGAIN QUICKLY SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. WITH SFC WINDS 15-20 KTS OVER THE CAUTIONARY AREA...
WINDS ARE FORECAST AOB 15 KTS ELSEWHERE. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE IF CONVECTION DISTORTS THE WIND FIELD LATER TODAY...THUS
RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS. FUTURE FORECAST SHIFTS WILL MONITOR IF
SCEC NEEDS TO BE ADDED TO SOUTH OFFSHORE LEG OR TO LET GO OF THIS
ISSUANCE ALTOGETHER. SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND BUILDING TO 3-4 FT
OFFSHORE...POSSIBLY 5 FT (WIND DRIVEN) WELL OFFSHORE NORTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF QUICK
MOVING OFFSHORE SHOWERS/STORMS. OFFSHORE MOVING LIGHTNING STORMS
REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH THE DAY/EVENING AND COVERAGE WILL BE HIGH.

SUNDAY...S-SSW WINDS EXPECTED FROM 10-15 KNOTS...AND STRONGER ACROSS
THE NRN OFFSHORE WATERS WITH SEAS UP TO 3-4 FT OFFSHORE. WILL SEE
NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSH INTO THE NEAR SHORE ATLC
WATERS.

MON-WED...THE ATLC RIDGE WILL BUILD SLOWLY NWD FROM NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE MONDAY TO THE CAPE BY WED. S/SW WINDS EARLY MONDAY WILL
VEER TO SE/S INTO MID WEEK. WINDS TO 10-15 KNOTS BUT DECREASING TO
MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS TUE AND WED. SEAS 2-3 FT INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  74  87  74 /  70  40  60  30
MCO  88  73  89  74 /  70  40  60  30
MLB  90  74  89  75 /  60  40  60  30
VRB  89  73  89  73 /  60  40  60  30
LEE  87  75  87  75 /  70  40  60  30
SFB  88  74  89  74 /  70  40  60  30
ORL  87  74  89  75 /  70  40  60  30
FPR  89  73  90  74 /  60  40  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....VOLKMER


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.