Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 050736
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
336 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NE US COAST WL
BUILD ENOUGH SWD ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST TO DEVELOP AN ONSHORE
FLOW OVER THE NE FL ATLC WATERS DURING THE DAY. SOME INITIAL
SHOWERS OVER THE ATLC WATERS CURRENTLY MARK THE ENCROACHING WIND
SHIFT AND IT IS EXPECTED SOME COASTAL SHOWERS WILL UNFOLD LOCALLY
DURING THE MORNING THEN SHIFT MAINLY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDERSTORMS AS BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS AND SFC HEATING COME INTO PLAY. THE PRECIP GRADIENT
WILL CONCENTRATE COVERAGE MAINLY INLAND BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS AS WELL OVER THE TREASURE COAST AND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THERE WILL EXIST THE CHC OF SOME STORMS BECOMING
STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN MAINLY FROM METRO ORLANDO AND COCOA SOUTHWARD.
STEERING WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE SO SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF MINOR AND NUISANCE FLOODING ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

EARLY EVENING STORMS...STRONGLY TIED TO DIURNAL HEATING WILL
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WHILE BECOMING DISSIPATING SHOWERS BY AROUND
10 PM.

SUN...LARGE DOME OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE U.S. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. MODELS SHOW A LONG FLAT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA...THE
NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS AND TOWARD BERMUDA. LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE MORNING SHOWERS
RIGHT AT THE COAST TRANSITION QUICKLY TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED EARLY
AFTERNOON STORMS JUST INLAND BECOMING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS INLAND
AND WEST OF ORLANDO.

NO SIGNIFICANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT...MID LEVEL
VORTICITY AND UPPER LEVEL JET DIVERGENCE THUS MOST OF THE STORM
GENERATION WILL BE FROM THE SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND AND BOUNDARY
INTERACTION FROM THE AFTERNOON STORMS. GUIDANCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND AROUND 90 LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM NOON TIME ON.

SUN NIGHT...LINGERING STORMS AND SHOWERS WIND DOWN BY MIDNIGHT. MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS
BECOMES PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING/SUNRISE IN THE LOW 70S
MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO MORE IN THE MORE POPULATED AND URBANIZED
AREAS.

MON-TUES ALONG THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF MOVES LITTLE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE SOUTH A
LIGHT ONSHORE WIND SHOULD BE THE RULE EACH MORNING. EARLY SEA
BREEZES SHOULD ADD A COUPLE OF MPH/KNOTS TO THE LARGER SCALE WIND
PATTERN. THE ONSHORE WIND FLOW IN THE MORNING WILL ALLOW THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM EARLY AND PUSH INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY...THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS AND SOUTH FLORIDA NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM FLORIDA. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE MID ATLANTIC HIGH TO BUILD WEST OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS
FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW. LIKELY RAIN CHANCES IN THE INTERIOR ON
TUESDAY DROP SOME TO 50 TO 40 PERCENT BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AT THE COAST AND LOW 90S
INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS THROUGH 05/15Z THEN ISOLD SHRA/TS PRODUCING MVFR CONDS
MNLY N OF A LINE FM VRB-ISM. FM 05/17Z-05/22Z SCT TSRA WITH OCNL
MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDS PSBL ALL SITES ASIDE FM DAB/OMN. AFT
05/22Z SCT TSRA WITH OCNL MVFR CONDS BECMG ISOLD AFT 06/01Z. VFR
CONDS AREAWIDE AFT 06/03Z.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING
THEN ONSHORE 5 TO 10 KT DURING SEA BREEZE. SEAS MAINLY 2 FEET OR
LESS. WINDS AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SUN-MON....LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNING. SEA
BREEZES ADD A FEW KNOTS IN THE THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET
NEARSHORE AND 3 FEET OR LESS WELL OFFSHORE.

TUE-WED...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. SEA BREEZES ADD A KNOT OR TWO TO THE
ONSHORE WIND AT THE COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  74  88  74 /  40  20  40  20
MCO  91  73  89  73 /  60  20  70  20
MLB  89  74  88  74 /  50  20  70  30
VRB  88  73  88  72 /  50  30  70  30
LEE  91  74  90  73 /  50  20  60  20
SFB  90  74  89  73 /  50  20  60  20
ORL  91  74  89  74 /  60  20  60  20
FPR  89  73  89  72 /  60  30  70  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....WIMMER


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