Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 011909
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
309 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW GRADIENT PROVIDED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION REMAINS IN PLACE. ISOLD ATLC
BASED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE COASTAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT
ALONG WITH INLAND SPORT TO THE OSCEOLA TURNPIKE AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE WITH HIT OR MISS 20 PERCENT CHC OF EXPERIENCING
ANY MEASURABLE PCPN.

TUE-WED...(FROM PREV DISC) DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE JUST TO THE NORTH MID WEEK KEEPING DEEP ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE.
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS WILL TRACK WESTWARDS
DURING THE PERIOD...WEAKENING TO AN INVERTED TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES
THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATE ON WEDNESDAY. AN OVERALL DRIER AIRMASS
LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR BOTH DAYS...ACCENTUATED ON TUESDAY AS
WE GET INTO THE SUBSIDENCE REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE.

POPS WL REMAIN ISOLATED AT THE COAST AS DIFFUSE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE PUSHES WESTWARDS LATE IN THE MORNING WITH SCATTERED
ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO PUSH WEST OF THE REGION BY EARLY EVENING.

DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/TROUGH STARTS TO ENTER THE
REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY...TOO LATE FOR A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
POPS DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START MOVING
INTO THE TREASURE COAST BY THE EVENING HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY
SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND COAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE REGION.

THURS-FRI...PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE FAVORED SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AS IT CROSSES INTO THE EASTERN GULF EARLY ON THURSDAY
AND WEAKENS INTO FRIDAY. POPS 40-50 PERCENT BOTH DAYS AS WE REMAIN
UNDER FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
INTERIOR/WESTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA...BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE
TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. EASTERLY FLOW DOES LOOK TOO LIGHT FOR
SIGNIFICANT INLAND PENETRATION OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS...SO WILL
KEEP THE MENTION CONFINED TO THE COAST DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

SAT-MON...GENERALLY LIGHT WIND FLOW IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SETTLES BACK ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION AND LOWER LEVEL AXIS STRETCHES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THE RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECMWF CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN
THE GFS IN BRINGING CLOSER TO THE STATE. FOR NOW...THIS DOESN`T
APPEAR TO MAKE TOO MUCH DIFFERENCE IN POP COVERAGE SO WILL KEEP
40-50 PERCENT AS DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF BOTH SEA BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MNLY VFR CONDS AFT 01/23Z WITH OCNL CLOUD BASES NR FL 030-035FT
ALONG THE COAST AND MARINE AREAS. ISOLD SHRA WL PRODUCE SPOTTY
MVFR CONDS MNLY ALNG CST FM SUA-KCOF.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BACK TO MORE SE SLIGHTLY AFTER
NIGHTFALL. SEAS MOSTLY 2 FT. SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE NO
MORE THAN ISOLATED WITH THUNDER NOT ANTICIPATED.

TUES-WED...(FROM PREV DISC) STEADY EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AS LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. SURFACE
REFLECTION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS BY LATE WEDNESDAY WILL BRIEFLY TIGHTEN GRADIENT...SPEEDS
10-15KTS...WHERE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO 5-10KTS.
SEAS 2-3FT.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY DURING THE NIGHTS/MORNINGS...WITH
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF LIGHTNING STORMS IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS BY LATE WED AS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES ACROSS.

THURS-FRI...
MAIN BOATING CONCERN WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS
OVER THE WATERS AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES PENINSULA INTO GULF.
BEST COVERAGE IN THE EVENING-MORNING PERIOD...BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE
PRESENT THROUGH THE DAY.

EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AROUND 10KTS WITH SEAS
2-3FT ON THURS...AND 1-2FT FRI.  ANY SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE
WINDS WILL BRING CHOPPIER SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS AREA GETS
SHADOWED BY THE BAHAMAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  90  74  90 /  20  20  10  20
MCO  74  94  74  93 /  10  30  10  20
MLB  76  90  77  90 /  20  20  10  20
VRB  74  90  75  90 /  20  20  20  20
LEE  75  94  75  94 /  10  40  10  30
SFB  75  93  75  93 /  10  20  10  20
ORL  76  94  76  93 /  10  30  10  20
FPR  73  89  74  90 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....BRAGAW




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