Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 231930
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
330 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

...Locally Heavy Rain Possible along the East Coast Overnight...
...Hazardous Surf and Strong Rip Currents Expected through
Monday...

Tonight...Hurricane Maria is forecast to move NNW overnight and
remain well offshore about 450 miles east of Cape Canaveral by
sunrise. Low level ENE winds will increase to near 20 knots across
the Atlantic allowing shower bands to develop and move onshore
along the coast mainly from Brevard county south to the Treasure
coast. The 12Z NAM and GFS are in good agreement indicating
Brevard and Indian River county to be the focus area for coastal
showers while the higher resolution convection allowing models
indicate the Treasure coast to be favored. Will have POPs around
50 percent from Brevard south along the coast with some locally
heavy rainfall expected in spots into Sunday morning along the
east coast. Will carry a low pop into portions of the interior
overnight including Orlando with higher coverage making it inland
from Osceola to Okeechobee county. Lows will average in the lower
to mid 70s interior and mid to upper 70s near the east coast.

Sunday...Hurricane Maria will move NNW offshore of east central FL
with increasingly high surf expected to impact the beaches along
with a high risk or rip currents. The high surf will also begin to
bring some erosion to the beaches likely around the time of high
tide at mid day. Low level winds will be northeast with scattered
showers likely ongoing in the morning along the coast and then
moving southwestward into the interior by afternoon with the
highest coverage across the srn interior. Will continue a slight
chance for a lightning storm generally from the Cape south and
into the interior in the afternoon. Considerable cloud cover near
the east coast in the morning will spread inland by afternoon.
Highs upper 80s coast to around 90 interior sections.

Monday-Tuesday...Winds will turn more northerly on Monday as Maria
continues to move northward well east of Florida.  Drier air will
begin to filter into the area, but enough moisture will still be
present for a slight chance of showers in the afternoon and evening
along the east coast sea breeze primarily from southern Lake county
to Titusville southward. Have also included a slight chance of
thunderstorms for Okeechobee, St. Lucie, and Martin counties.  The
airmass continues to dry out further overnight Monday into Tuesday
and most areas again will remain dry on Tuesday.  However, there
will be enough moisture lingering over southern areas to mention a
slight chance of showers as the east coast sea breeze moves inland
during the afternoon and early evening.  There will be quite a bit
of mid-level dry air to overcome so thunder has been left out of the
forecast for Tuesday.  Dangerous surf and rip currents will continue
at area beaches.

Highs Monday will be be in the upper 80s near the coast and around
90 inland and a degree or two warmer on Tuesday. Lows will be in low
to mid 70s.

Wednesday-Friday (from previous)...Anomalously low moisture levels,
courtesy of drier north flow on the backside of TC Maria, will keep
precip chances below climatology through the period. No more than
isolated showers (PoPs 20% or less) are advertised at this time,
with most locales expected to remain dry through the week. A
weakening pressure gradient into mid-week will lower winds, becoming
light at times. Max temps will be near climo in the upper 80s/near
90. Min temps in the low to mid 70s. Dangerous surf and rip currents
will continue at the beaches through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Sct SHRA/Isold TSRA will move from the Atlc toward the interior
terminals into the evening and then focus near the KTIX-KSUA
corridor from late evening into the overnight hours. Some locally
heavy rain with showers will lower CIGs/VSBYs to MVFR with the
passing showers. Atlantic convergence showers are expected to
affect the KTIX-KFPR corridor into Sunday morning before moving
into the interior the afternoon. There will still be a low SHRA
chance for nrn interior terminals into the evening and then again
Sunday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight...Larger swells from Hurricane Maria will begin to impact
the east central Florida Atlantic waters tonight with seas
building over 10 feet offshore and 6 to 8 ft across the near
shore waters after midnight. A Small Craft Advisory continues in
effect for all marine zones.

Sunday...Hurricane Maria will make its closest approach to east
central Florida on Sunday about 450 miles offshore and will
continue moving NNW through the afternoon. Swells will continue to
build to 7 to 9 feet near shore and 10 to 13 feet across the
offshore waters. The seas will be hazardous for small craft and an
Advisory remains in effect.

Mon-Wed...Seas will remain at or above SCA criteria through the
period as large swells from Maria continue to move into the local
waters, though they will gradually subside into mid week. Nearshore
seas 6-9 feet Mon, 5-8 Tue, and 4-7 on Wed. Offshore seas 8-12
feet Mon, 7-10 Tue, and 6-9 Wed. Winds will become northerly
around 10 knots leading to less of a wind chop.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Moderate to Major Flooding continues on the St Johns River with
river levels forecast to remain nearly steady then continue a slow
fall into the weekend and early next week. The river level at the
St Johns west of Cocoa has nearly reached the peak level set after
Tropical Storm Fay with flooding impacts reported. Shingle Creek
at Campbell has dropped below flood stage and is expected to drop
below action stage by Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  86  74  88 /  20  20  20  10
MCO  74  89  73  90 /  20  30  10  20
MLB  77  88  75  89 /  40  40  10  20
VRB  75  89  75  88 /  40  40  10  20
LEE  73  91  73  92 /  10  20  10  10
SFB  74  89  73  90 /  20  20  10  10
ORL  74  90  72  91 /  20  20  10  20
FPR  76  88  74  89 /  40  40  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for Coastal Volusia
     County-Indian River-Martin-Northern Brevard County-Southern
     Brevard County-St. Lucie.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-
     60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20
     nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Volkmer
MID/LONG TERM....Combs
AVIATION...Johnson



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