Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 190103
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
903 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

REST OF TONIGHT...TRENDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY HAVE
LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PUSHING OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN
BREVARD COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST INTO LATE EVENING. HOWEVER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO COULD STILL REDEVELOP
AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF. WHILE THE THREAT FOR STRONGER
STORMS IS DIMINISHING THERE REMAINS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IF TRAINING OF SHOWERS/STORMS DO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. CLOUDY SKIES TO PERSIST WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY IF NOT DROPPING A FEW MORE
DEGREES INTO LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER
60S...EXCEPT LOW 70S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.

THIS WEEKEND...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) CLOSED DEEP LAYER LOW WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH FL DURING THE DAY ON SAT...WITH THE
CENTER REACHING THE ATLC OCEAN AROUND 00Z/SUNSET. TONGUE OF DRIER
AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW...LEAVING BETTER
MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHERN CWA. AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL RETRACT INTO THE ATLC...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS SETTLING IN BEGINNING SUNDAY. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FCST
WAS TO REMOVE MENTION OF TS AS MEAN MOISTURE LOOKING A BIT
LIMITED...EVEN WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. FOR
SAT...MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S NORTH/CTRL TO L-M80S SOUTH WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S. ON SUNDAY...U70S NORTH HALF AND L80S SOUTH HALF WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS THROUGH LATE EVENING EXPECTED WITH TEMPO
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR IN ANY REDEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS MOVING
INTO THE REGION AFTER 08Z AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING HOURS OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS TOMORROW. WILL LEAN TOWARD
THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW BUT WILL NEED TO BE REEXAMINED IN NEXT SET
OF TAF ISSUANCES.


&&

.MARINE...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH SEAS UP TO 7-8 FEET OFFSHORE. WILL
EXPAND SCA FOR THE ENTIRE OFFSHORE WATERS AND EXTEND TIME THROUGH
EARLY MORNING SATURDAY AS THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

WEITLICH/VOLKMER






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