Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 250836
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
336 AM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

.DISCUSSION...
...Near Record Warmth Across the Region Today and Tomorrow...

Today-Tonight...Strong ridge aloft remains across the area, as ridge
axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic persists across central
Florida. Low level winds will be out of the S/SW today and will help
delay development of the east coast sea breeze this afternoon,
especially north of the Cape where flow is slightly more offshore.
This will allow temperatures to be even warmer today, with highs
reaching the mid 80s along the coast and mid to possibly upper 80s
over the interior.

Isolated showers will initially be possible along the Brevard and
Treasure Coast this afternoon, where greater low level moisture will
reside and where sea breeze first forms. Then as sea breeze pushes
westward and collides with the west coast breeze across the interior
from late this afternoon into this evening, additional isolated
showers will be possible farther north and inland. Very mild
temperatures will continue overnight with lows in the mid to upper
60s. Also, weaker boundary layer winds may allow patchy fog to
develop late tonight, mainly over the interior.

MON-TUE...Guid for early in the week shows that the ridge largely
responsible for the streak of abnormally warm Feb temps over the
area will only be temporarily weakened by passing wave energy
migrating over the TN Valley and SE states. A surface front is
forecast to drag across central FL late Mon night/ early Tue
providing some temperature relief as well as a slight chc of
showers for the same period. Winds will veer back direct onshore
by Tue night beginning another return to milder temps with
relatively high humidity and a slight chc of mainly marine and
coastal showers.

EXTENDED...Broad upr ridging initially centered over the GulfMex
will rebuild Ewd over the state. Pattern will once again shunt
pcpn chcs locally through mid to late week along with a warming
trend. Minimal opportunity for moisture return ahead of a rapidly
approaching front early Fri will bring only a small rain chc ahead
of a more notable cooldown into the weekend with continental winds
and dry conds through at least Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR. Some patchy ground fog possible across the
interior early this morning. However, better chance for patchy fog
and tempo IFR/MVFR conditions will be late tonight, as boundary
layer winds weaken. Isolated showers may briefly reduce conditions
to MVFR this afternoon and evening as the sea breeze moves slowly
inland and collides with the west coast breeze across the interior.
However, with rain chances remaining quite low, will keep VCSH or
tempo groups out of the TAFs for now.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...Ridge axis across the waters will keep a more
southerly flow across the waters today, becoming E/SE near the coast
in the afternoon as the sea breeze develops and pushes inland. Wind
speeds forecast to remain below 15 knots with seas ranging from 2-4
feet nearshore and 3-5 feet offshore.

MON-TUE...S-SW winds during Mon will quickly veer to N component
with psg of the front Mon night or early Tue. Post frontal winds
of 15 to 20 kt possible mainly over the outer waters during Tue,
but are forecast to diminish by early Wed morning.

EXTENDED...Mostly favorable conditions through mid week should be
expected with high pressure rebuilding from the West. Another
front passing during Fri will act to increase winds and steepen
seas behind front during Fri into the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...A few additional warm minimum temperature records could
be set or tied today and tomorrow. Daytona Beach has the best shot
of reaching their high temperature record for today, with a better
chance for maximum temperature records being reached or exceeded
across the area tomorrow, Monday, February 26th.

Record Highs and Warm Lows for Today and Tomorrow:

                    February 25          February 26
                  High    Warm Low     High    Warm Low
Daytona Beach    86-2001   66-1928    89-1939   65-1945
Orlando Intl     90-1962   68-1912    89-1971   70-1912
Sanford          89-1962   67-2011    89-1971   66-2011
Melbourne        87-2013   70-2001    91-1939   68-1945
Vero Beach       87-2017   70-2001    86-2013   69-2013
Ft. Pierce       87-2017   69-2001    90-1928   71-2013

With temperatures still forecast to remain well above normal through
the remainder of the month, a record warm February is certain for
Orlando, Melbourne, Sanford and Vero Beach, with Daytona Beach and
Fort Pierce coming in second warmest. Average temperature values for
the month at Orlando and Melbourne, will likely shatter their
previous record warm February by +2.0 degrees.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  84  66  85  66 /  20  10  20  20
MCO  87  67  89  68 /  20  20  20  20
MLB  85  68  85  68 /  20  10  20  20
VRB  84  67  86  65 /  20  10  20  20
LEE  86  67  87  68 /  20  20  20  20
SFB  87  66  87  68 /  20  20  20  20
ORL  87  68  88  69 /  20  20  20  20
FPR  84  67  86  64 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Weitlich
LONG TERM....Pendergrast



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