Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 300825
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
425 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...AFTER A CHILLY START...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
LIGHT WIND FLOW. A FEW 80 DEGREE READINGS WILL OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL
PROMOTE LIGHT WINDS AND ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP.
SOME MARINE STRATOCU IS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE TREASURE COAST WHERE
ONSHORE FLOW IS A BIT STRONGER. BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE ONCE
THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS LATE THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...SEASONABLY COOL WITH LOWS TUE MORNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MOISTURE MOVING INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT...PROBABLY IN THE FORM OF SOME SCATTERED
CLOUDINESS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TOO LOW TO MENTION. THE COOLEST TEMPS...POSSIBLY SOME LOWER
50S...WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTH UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS.

TUE-WED...
LOW AMP POSITIVELY TILTED FRONTAL TROF EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX
TO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE DRIVEN E/SE BY A MODERATELY STRONG
H30-H20 JET PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. AN H100-H70 RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED OVER THE GOMEX INITIALLY WILL BLOCK THE TROF TO THE E...BUT
WILL HAVE ITS ERN FLANK ERODED IN THE PROCESS. WHILE THIS WILL ALLOW
THE FRONTAL BNDRY TO OOZE ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL FL BY MIDWEEK...THE
MID/UPR LVL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CONUS DOES NOT HAVE
SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE NOR STRENGTH TO COMPLETELY UPROOT THE GOMEX
RIDGE. AS A RESULT...FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER CENTRAL FL AS ITS POST
FRONTAL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST.

POSITION OF THE GOMEX RIDGE WILL BLOCK OUT THE MAJORITY OF ANY MID
LVL VORTICITY WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY MAINTAINING A STEADY NW FLOW THRU
THE H100-H50 LYR. AN 80-90KT JET STREAK WILL PUSH INTO A POSITION BY
WED TO PLACE CENTRAL FL UNDER ITS ASCENDING LEFT FRONT QUAD. MID LVL
TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL AS WELL AS UPSTREAM H50 TEMPS ARE RUNNING
AOB -14C...YIELDING H70-H50 LAPSE RATES BTWN 7.0-7.5C/KM.

LOW LVL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS THE DEEP LYR NW FLOW PREVENTS ANY WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO RELY ON
MOISTURE POOLING WITHIN ITS OWN TROF...AND LATEST RAP40 ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE BULK OF DEEP MOISTURE THRU BOTH THE H100-H70 AND H85-H50
LYR IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP WRLY FLOW THAT WILL CARRY IT OFF THE
ATLC COAST BEFORE IT CAN ADVECT INTO CENTRAL FL.

DIFFICULT TO STARE AT -14C MID LVL TEMPS WITHOUT FCSTG TSRAS...BUT
GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND MID LVL SUPPORT...DEEP CONVECTION
THRU MIDWEEK DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ATTM. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY
THRU TUE...AND LIMIT POPS TO 20/30PCT ON WED FOR THE CENTRAL/NRN
CWA...HIGHER TO THE N TO ACCOUNT FOR BETTER UPR JET DYNAMICS AND
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO DEEPER MOISTURE. SILENT 10 POPS ARND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. TEMP FCST NEAR AVG FOR MID SPRING...AFTN MAXES L/M80S
INTERIOR...U70S/L80S ALONG THE COAST. MIN TEMPS U50S/M60S.

THU-SUN...
POST FRONTAL RIDGE WILL PUSH OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND BRIDGE THE
FRONTAL TROF EAST OF THE BAHAMA BANK THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. THERE IT WILL MERGE WITH THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH ITS
TRAILING AXIS EXTENDING BACK ACRS THE FL PANHANDLE INTO THE WEEKEND.
DRY/STABLE AIRMASS ASSOCD WITH THE RIDGE MERGER WILL REQUIRE SIG
MODIFICATION BEFORE ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 20POPS CAN BE INTRODUCED
TO THE FCST...UNLIKELY BEFORE THE NEXT FROPA WHICH MID RANGE MODELS
ARE NOT INDICATING UNTIL SUN AT EARLIEST.

INCREASING SRLY COMPONENT INTO THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT FROPA
WILL KEEP TEMPS 5-10F ABV ABV AVG. MAX TEMPS L/M80S ALONG THE COAST
AND M/U80S INTERIOR...MIN TEMPS M/U60S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH 12Z TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE ACROSS
CENT FL AND THE ADJACENT ALTC WATERS. IT IS ALREADY DIMINISHING
WINDS AND WIND WAVES AND WILL RESULT IN IMPROVED BOATING
CONDITIONS. A LIGHT OFFSHORE (W/SW) FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN (VOLUSIA) WATERS THIS MORNING. AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA
BREEZE AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE PRIMARY CONTRIBUTION TO WAVE HEIGHT WILL BE A COUPLE OF SWELL
COMPONENTS...ONE FROM THE NORTHEAST AND ANOTHER FROM THE EAST...
PRODUCING SEAS OF 3-4 FT. BUT WITH PERIODS AROUND 8 SECONDS...IT
WILL NOT BE AS CHOPPY AS PREVIOUS DAYS.

TONIGHT...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PRESS SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW 10-15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL WATERS.

TUE...BROAD HI PRES RIDGE DRAPED OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH FL WILL GENERATE
A LIGHT TO GENTLE W/NW BREEZE THRU MIDDAY. WEAK PGRAD WILL ALLOW THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM BY EARLY AFTN WITH SFC WINDS BCMG A
LIGHT TO GENTLE SERLY BREEZE THRU SUNSET. SEAS 2-3FT WITH DOMINANT
PDS 7-8SEC.

TUE NIGHT... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO N FL OVERNIGHT...
FORCING WINDS TO VEER TO THE S/SW THRU MIDNIGHT THEN TO THE W THRU
SUNRISE...GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE N OF SEBASTIAN INLET AND LIGHT
TO GENTLE TO THE S. SEAS 2-3FT OVER MOST OF THE AREA...UP TO 4FT IN
THE GULF STREAM. DVLPG OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL GENERATE CHOPPY SHORT
PD WIND WAVES.

WED-WED NIGHT...FRONTAL BNDRY WILL BREAK UP OVER THE FL PENINSULA AS
THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. GENTLE TO
MODERATE W/NW BREEZE BCMG A LIGHT TO GENTLE NE BREEZE THRU THE
DAYLIGHT HRS... BCMG LIGHT TO GENTLE E/NE OVERNIGHT. SEAS 2-3FT
NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE THRU THE DAY...SUBSIDING TO 2FT
OVERNIGHT.

THU-FRI...POST FRONTAL RIDGE WILL BRIDGE THE FRONTAL TROF AND MERGE
WITH THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF THE BAHAMA BANK THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS OVER N FL WILL
GENERATE A GENTLE TO MODERATE SERLY BREEZE THRU SUNSET FRI. WINDS
VEERING TO S/SW FRI NIGHT AS A NEW COLD FRONT PRESSES INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH. SEAS 2-3FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LONG DURATION OF CRITICAL RH (BELOW 35 PERCENT) ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES WILL REACH 25-30 PERCENT BUT
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  58  78  62 /   0  10  10  10
MCO  80  58  83  63 /   0  10  10  10
MLB  76  55  78  61 /   0  10   0  10
VRB  77  54  77  60 /   0  10   0  10
LEE  79  59  83  63 /   0  10  10  10
SFB  78  58  83  63 /   0  10  10  10
ORL  79  59  83  63 /   0  10  10  10
FPR  76  54  78  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....BRAGAW



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