Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 201907
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
307 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT/TONIGHT...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NORTH FLORIDA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO
TONIGHT. SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST WILL
WRAP AROUND THIS LOW...SHIFTING SOUTH INTO I-4 CORRIDOR REGION AND
VOLUSIA COUNTY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE WITH
REDEVELOPING CONVECTIVE BANDS ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE
TREASURE COAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH OFFSHORE
MOVING STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS ACROSS THIS AREA. DRIER
AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO DECREASING RAIN CHANCES
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY HOVER AROUND THE 70 DEGREE MARK
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S...ESPECIALLY
LOCATIONS NEAR TO NORTHWEST OF ORLANDO THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
TO SEE A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OFF THE OUTER
BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA WITH A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST AND LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. BAND OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
CAPE CANAVERAL TO TAMPA BAY. WHILE FARTHER NORTH DRIER AIR WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES LIMITED. HAVE POPS RANGING FROM 20 PERCENT
NORTH OF ORLANDO TO 50 PERCENT ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE
TREASURE COAST. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MON...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SLOW TO CLEAR FLORIDA AS ILLUSTRATED
BY TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH
MUCH OF THE ATMOSPHERE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75 NORTH TO 2
INCHES SOUTHERN PORTION OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AND MID LEVEL VORTICITY
MAX TRACKING OVERHEAD SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES AROUND 60 PERCENT FOR
THE DAY.

MON NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY RIDGES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND INTO NORTH EARLY THEN INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA LATE MON NIGHT. AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA THE WIND FINALLY SHIFTS AROUND
TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST EARLY TUE.

TUE...NO APPRECIABLE DROP IN LAYER MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES COUPLED WITH VORTICITY MAX CROSSING OVERHEAD
CENTRAL FLORIDA RAIN CHANCES STILL AROUND 60 TO 70 PERCENT FOR TUE.

WED-FRI...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY CLEARS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE UNITED STATES. RAIN CHANCES DROP TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT AS A
STABLE MOIST MARINE AIR MASS MOVES INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE MID
LEVEL VORTICITY SUPPORT DECREASES APPRECIABLY.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/MVFR CIGS HELD ON LONGER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED
TODAY BUT CONDS ARE NOW GRADUALLY IMPROVING. HOWEVER SCT-NMRS
SHOWERS AND ISO STORMS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS...MAINLY SOUTH OF KMLB WHERE
REDEVELOPING CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE MOST LIKELY. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE I-4
CORRIDOR AND VOLUSIA COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY WILL EXIST SOUTH OF ORLANDO
WHERE BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PERSIST.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT/SUN...LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF NORTH FLORIDA WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA INTO TOMORROW. WINDS WILL RANGE
FROM THE N/NW OFF OF THE VOLUSIA COAST TO THE W/SW FROM THE CAPE
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS UP TO 15-20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OFFSHORE OF BREVARD COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST AS THE LOW
STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AND PULLS AWAY. WINDS THEN WILL RELAX INTO
TOMORROW WITH WINDS BECOMING E/NE NEAR THE COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS SEA BREEZE FORMS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MON...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE AS A FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS BEGIN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH MON
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES BUILDS DOWN
THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS TO 4 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM.

TUE-WED...EAST WINDS TO 15 KNOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  MOVES
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  85  73  87 /  40  20  20  60
MCO  69  88  72  89 /  30  30  20  60
MLB  70  86  73  87 /  30  40  20  70
VRB  70  88  73  88 /  40  50  20  70
LEE  70  89  73  89 /  30  20  20  60
SFB  71  88  73  89 /  30  20  20  60
ORL  70  88  74  89 /  30  30  20  60
FPR  71  87  72  87 /  40  50  20  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/AVIATION...WEITLICH
IMPACT WX/RADAR....PENDERGRAST





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