Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 281332
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
932 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017

.UPDATE...

...Hot and Dry through Memorial Day...

Today...Mid level ridge expanding from the Gulf across the Florida
peninsula will maintain subsidence and drier than normal air.
The central Florida morning soundings showed precipitable water
around 0.90 inches and forecast soundings do not even support any
afternoon cumulus development.  Full sun expected again this
afternoon and expect hazy looking skies.

Surface high pressure ridge still showed a split with weak trough
offshore and northwest flow over land early this morning. The
models still show ridge settling a bit to the south with slight
tightening of the pressure gradient, especially across northern
sections.  The east coast sea breeze looks delayed by at least an
hour from yesterday, which should boost coastal highs to near 95
degrees. Might have to tweak temps up a few degrees along the
immediate coast, otherwise no changes planned.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR today.  Patchy stratus possible again late tonight
northward from KISM-KMCO-KTIX.

&&

.MARINE...
Today...Slightly increased northwest winds (10-15 knots) were
occurring from around Canaveral north this morning due to weak
low pressure trough offshore.  These winds should ease nearshore as
daytime heating occurs and a late sea breeze develops in the north.
The limited duration and fetch of the slightly increased
west/northwest winds will result in benign seas around 1 foot near
the coast and 2 feet offshore.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today...Min RH values and fire danger indices dictate Red Flag
Warnings over portions of the interior.  However, high temps in the
mid 90s with dry vegetation will continue a high to very high
wildfire spread risk areawide. Afternoon winds will remain 10 mph
or less, except possibly 12-13 mph with the sea breeze.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs are not expected, but if sea breeze holds off longer
than expected, temps could take a run at MLB/VRB records.

SITE  DATE    RECORD HIGH
DAB   28-May    99 2000
MCO   28-May    99 2000
MLB   28-May    97 2000
VRB   28-May    96 1967

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     Orange-Osceola-Seminole.

AM...None.

&&

$$

Forecasts...Lascody
Impact Wx...Weitlich



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