Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KMRX 300757
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
357 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
HIGHER TODAY AND TONIGHT...FELT IT WAS WISE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS
FOR TODAY...MAINLY OVER NE TN AND SW VA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICS
SHOW THE UPPER LOW SPINNING NEAR MOBILE AL THIS MORNING...SPREADING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THE OHX/RNK 30/00Z
SOUNDINGS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES ON THE INCREASE.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE LIFTING SLOWLY NE THROUGH TONIGHT...AND SHOULD
COUPLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND T-STORMS. HOWEVER...NAM MODEL IS LIKELY OVERDOING THE COVERAGE
AND QPF ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. I FAVORED THE GFS AND LATEST HRRR/
RAP MODELS...SO KEPT POPS MUCH CLOSER TO THE GFS MOS POPS.

FOR TONIGHT...KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH 31/06Z THEN JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR 06Z TO 12Z MONDAY. CLOUDS SHOULD BE THICK ENOUGH TO
KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES TODAY...WHILE SIMILAR MOS MINS
LOOK GOOD ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN OCCURS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...LATEST TRENDS IN MODEL
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS ARE MUCH DRIER AND WARMER MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH THE NAM THE WETTER MODEL. THE TROPICAL SYSTEM...ERIKA HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT ON
THE FORECAST. WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES MONDAY
THEN RIDGING TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE EASTERN TN VALLEY. HAVE
INCREASED HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND LOWERED RAIN CHANCES TO BE
MORE IN LINE WITH THE MAV GUIDANCE. FROM MID WEEK THROUGH SATURDAY
THE INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE REMAINS OF ERIKA WILL KEEP CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             81  67  85  68 /  50  30  30  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  83  65  86  67 /  40  30  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       82  65  86  67 /  40  30  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              81  61  84  64 /  30  30  30  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG/TD



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.