Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 041846
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
246 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...PERSISTENT PATTERN
CONTINUES...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA. UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR WEST FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND DRIFT OVER OUR AREA
DURING THE PERIOD.  SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND...BUT CLOUDS
AND PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO RESTRICT HEATING/INSTABILITY WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT THUNDER.  WILL CARRY CAT POPS BOTH PERIODS. GIVEN HOW
WET THE GROUND IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WILL ALLOW THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE AS IS.  MAV TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK
REASONABLE...SO JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM.

SUNDAY NIGHT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE MID STATE
SPINS OVERHEAD. BOTH MODELS SHOW THIS LOW WEAKENING AND PULLING OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. IT DOES LOOK
LIKE WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME CLEARING ON MONDAY AS THIS LOW PULLS
AWAY. CLEARING WILL BEGIN MONDAY MORNING FIRST ACROSS OUR WESTERN
AREAS WHILE NETN AND SWVA MAY NOT SEE CLEARING UNTIL LATER
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE SAME APPLIES TO PRECIP CHANCES. OUR NE
AREAS WILL HOLD ON TO PRECIP THE LONGEST...LIKELY THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY. THE NAM WANTS TO DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY ACROSS AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT EARLY.
THIS IS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY BECAUSE OF THE RETURNING
SUNSHINE AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT HANGING AROUND FROM THE LOW.
NONETHELESS...MONDAY WILL BE OUR FIRST DAY IN QUITE SOME TIME FOR
MOST AREAS TO SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNSHINE.

MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK RIDGING ON TUESDAY THAT WILL GIVE US OUR
BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER...DIURNAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE. THE SHORT LIVED DRY STREAK ENDS
ABRUPTLY ON WEDNESDAY AS WE REENTER AN UNSETTLE WEATHER PATTERN.
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIPS DOWN TOWARD OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND HANGS AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY STALL TO OUR
NORTH BUT WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. BY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY THINGS ARE LOOKING DRIER AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE SOUTH AND THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXITS TO THE EAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  81  68  86 /  80  80  30  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  67  79  67  85 /  80  80  50  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  78  66  85 /  80  80  40  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              67  79  65  81 /  80  80  70  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

LW/SR



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