Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 130756
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
256 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...It is a very cold morning across
the Southern Appalachian Region and a Wind Chill Advisory will
remain in effect for the East TN Mountains through 12Z. Surface
high pressure building in over the area will allow for plenty of
sunshine this afternoon. This will help the cold air mass
moderate slightly. A weather system tracking through to our north
late this afternoon and tonight will increase winds across the
region today. Winds will become breezy and a bit gusty this
afternoon across the TN valley. Higher elevations of the East TN
mountains should see winds reach advisory criteria and a Wind
Advisory will be in effect from 21Z today through 12Z Thursday.
Also...a few flurries and even a stray pocket of light snow will
be possible over portions of southwest VA and far northeastern TN
late tonight. The rest of the area should stay dry and a bit
warmer.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...Models in decent agreement
early on, but agreement deteriorates with time.  Forecast confidence
starts out near or above average, but then becomes below average by
the end of the period.  May be a lingering snow shower far
north/northeast mountains early Thursday, but these should quickly
end and clouds will decrease as slightly drier air works in.  Trend
of the models has been much drier for Friday with the weak short
wave energy that moves across, so will go precip free for Friday.
High pressure will be over the region on Saturday, then the next
frontal system is forecast to affect the area on Sunday. Atmosphere
looks warm enough for this to be a mainly liquid precip event, and
will carry high chance PoPs for Sunday for now.  Models in poor
agreement for latter periods, but right now it appears there may be
some lingering precip into Monday, then Tuesday is more likely to be
dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             48  33  50  29 /   0   0   0  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  44  31  46  29 /   0  10  10  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       44  32  45  29 /   0  10  10  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              39  27  42  27 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Thursday for
     Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier
     Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
     Monroe-Unicoi.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for Blount Smoky
     Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
     Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Unicoi.

VA...None.
&&

$$

MJB/LW



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