Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 221951
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
251 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE EAST TN VALLEY FROM THE EAST TONIGHT.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES ALOFT. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS ALSO
POSSIBLE LATE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES E TN VALLEY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA AS BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH THE W GREAT LAKES. GOOD SE H85
COMPONENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS SHOULD LEAD TO MOUNTAIN WAVE
EVENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. HIGH WIND
WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE AND LOOKS REASONABLE. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. IMPRESSIVE LAYER SHEAR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT INSTABILITY
IS LACKING. THUNDERSTORM THREAT REMAINS LOW WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS. SURFACE WARM FRONT AND SHORT WAVE MOVE NORTH
OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SW TO NE UPPER JET EAST OF THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH STRENGTHEN OVER THE TN VALLEY INTO MONDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT BECOMES DOMINATE ACROSS E TN VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING.
NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY UPPER TROUGH AXIS LATE. SCATTERED INSTABILITY
SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM WITH LATE DAY
FROPA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED
WELL THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING MAKING TUESDAY MORNING
LOWS/HIGHS ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER COMPARED TO MONDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL START TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS TEXAS AND MOVE OVER
THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF
THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA, BUT WILL HAVE
MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS SOME OF THE
MOISTURE MIGHT BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS ONE WILL HAVE A BIT
MORE OF A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT`S WAY SOUTH BUT COULD SPARK SOME
PRECIP IN THE AREA AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             42  60  52  65 /  60  90  50  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  40  59  50  65 /  30  90  60  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       39  58  51  64 /  40  90  50  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              34  57  45  63 /  10  90  70  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-
     JOHNSON-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     RUSSELL-WASHINGTON.

&&

$$

SON/ABM


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