Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KMRX 051911
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
311 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
COLD AIR ALOFT HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. ANY STORM THAT FORMS WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND THERE
HAVE BEEN SEVERAL REPORTS OF PEA SIZED HAIL ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION...THE FREEZING LEVEL IS RATHER LOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR AROUND 5000 FEET. DUE TO THIS LOWER FREEZING LEVEL...SNOW IS
FALLING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE TENNESSEE/NORTH
CAROLINA LINE. MOUNT LECONTE HAS REPORTED AROUND HALF AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION ALREADY AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
PEAKS ABOVE 5500 FEET WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES BY
THE END OF THE NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TONIGHT THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE OVER NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THANKS TO
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO
AN END TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VALLEY AND ACROSS
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
AVERAGE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO MID 40S
ACROSS THE VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY
CONTINUES TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM LOW 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOW 70S
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT COOLER AIR TO THE AREA WILL BE LIFTING
OUT OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY...A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH BRINGING OCCASIONAL BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS INTO
NORTHERN LOCATIONS. THEN...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE POSITIONED
ALONG OUR NORTHERN BORDER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...CONTINUING TO BRING IN
OCCASIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONCENTRATED OVER NORTHERN AREAS. WILL BE IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED AS A SERIES OF
FRONTS/SHORT WAVES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT IN PLACE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A WARMING TREND
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BRING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND AND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             46  72  50  80 /  10   0  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  45  69  48  78 /  20  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       45  70  48  78 /  20   0  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              42  64  45  74 /  80  50  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MA


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.