Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMRX 251840
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
240 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST AND
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...BUT WILL THEN BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY AROUND NORTHEAST TN OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING JUST AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND
STABLE MID LEVELS... WITH THIS BOUNDARY THEN MOVING NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE TN
RIVER VALLEY. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH AN UNSEASONABLY WARM
PATTERN EXPECTED. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE TWO SETS
OF GUIDANCE WITH MAXES ON MONDAY...AND WILL GENERALLY COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE TWO.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.  PATTERN
CHANGE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA.  A LINE OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH
DURING THIS TIME FRAME FOR SCATTERED PRECIP.  ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A RETURN TO
DRY CONDITIONS.  MODEL CONSISTENT POOR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT
TRENDS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER NORTHERN AREAS BY SATURDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             52  78  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  51  76  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       51  76  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              46  73  43  80 /  10   0   0   0
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/MJB



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