Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 301009

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
409 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

...Hot and Dry through Sunday...
...Increasing Thunderstorm Potential Next Week...

.DISCUSSION...Temperatures will begin to noticeably increase today
as a ridge of high pressure strengthens over the Northern Rockies.
This ridge will further strengthen over the next several days, and
temperatures could rise to near-record territory in a few areas:

Central Idaho: Lower valleys, especially the lower Hells Canyon
area, will see temperatures well over 100 degrees Saturday and

Western Montana: Hottest temperatures will be Saturday and Sunday.
Expect temperatures hovering around 100 degrees in the lower
valleys of northwest Montana, such as Libby and Thompson Falls.
Elsewhere in western Montana, expect mid to upper 90s with some
areas in the Bitterroot Valley approaching 100 degrees Sunday.

A pattern change will begin late Sunday, as monsoonal moisture
sneaks up into the region Sunday night and Monday. This will
increase the potential for a few thunderstorms, mainly in central
Idaho, the southern Bitterroot, and across southwest Montana.

Low pressure will amplify off the west coast of the United States
by Tuesday and Wednesday. The resultant increasing southwest flow
aloft will help usher in additional moisture. This will combine with
increasing dynamic support to present continued thunderstorm
potential across the entire Northern Rockies. That being said,
confidence at this time is somewhat low for the possible coverage
and/or intensity of storms. Temperatures during this period will
lower to near-normal readings in the upper 80s.


.AVIATION....Vfr conditions will occur at all terminals today.
Late afternoon mixing winds around 10-15 knots will occur at all
terminals between 30/2200z and 31/0100z.



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