Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 080947

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
347 AM MDT THU OCT 8 2015

.DISCUSSION...Expect some light rain or drizzle very early this
morning. Lower stratus clouds along with some patchy fog will
occur over the region through mid morning. A high pressure ridge
will develop today and bring drier conditions however some clouds
will linger over the region. The ridge will strengthen even
further on Friday into Saturday. The atmosphere will be drier and
allow for more sunshine and pretty warm temperatures into the mid
and upper 70s, or 10-15 degrees above normal.

Enjoy these days as a change will occur late Saturday into Sunday.
Clouds will increase Saturday afternoon just ahead of a weather
disturbance that will push its way through the region. This system
will impact the Northern Rockies through Sunday bringing much
cooler temperatures, widespread rainfall and increasing winds.
The biggest impact from this system will be the strong winds
behind the cold front. The strongest winds will be over northwest
Montana. This will be a windy event for the typical areas like
Marias Pass and the high country in Glacier National Park, which
may see winds near 60 mph. Windy conditions are also expected for
some less typical lower elevation areas. Surface pressure rises
behind the front are unexceptional and are the main limiting
factor in the wind speed forecast right now but jet stream and
mid-level support for strong winds is very good. As a result,
winds will likely be consistently strong during the day Sunday
instead of just a quick burst of strong winds with the front.

Impacts may include blown down trees and associated road blockages
and power outages. Difficult conditions on Flathead Lake during
the Mack Days fishing tournament are also likely. This system has
been evolving and forecast specifics on location and timing are
approximate, but the most likely areas to be impacted with
unusually strong winds range from Yaak, Troy, and Libby to Eureka,
West Glacier, and Kalispell.

Drier and warmer than normal days will quickly return Monday and
persist through the middle of the week thanks to another ridge of
high pressure establishing itself across much of the western U.S.


.AVIATION...Showers will decrease through the morning leaving most
terminals impacted by low clouds or ground fog. With a ridge of
high pressure building over the area and a stable air mass,
conditions will be slow to improve, but restrictions should be
minimal by 18Z.



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