Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 012027

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
227 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...A strong high pressure ridge building over the
Northern Rockies and SW Canada will bring a swift return to above
normal temperatures (10 to 15 degrees above normal) under
abundant sunshine on Monday and Tuesday. Few public impacts are
anticipated, though its likely the warming will start another snow
melt cycle throughout the region, ultimately leading to swift
moving and slowly rising creeks, streams and rivers this week.
High clouds will begin to increase across the region Tuesday with
perhaps just enough moisture present near the
Idaho/Oregon/Washington border to warrant a very slight chance for
a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon.

The forecast for Wednesday is still on track as the warmest day
of the week in many locations with high pressure beginning to
weaken. There are also indications that thunderstorms may develop
late in the day on Wednesday in north central Idaho and into
northwest Montana. These potential storms will be the beginning of
the break down of the ridge.

Southwesterly flow and a shortwave passage on Thursday will bring
even better chances for showers and thunderstorms region wide.
Some of the storms in western Montana may become strong. Showers
and afternoon thunderstorms will extend into Friday while the main
low pressure system passes south through the Desert Southwest.
Moisture with this low may still wrap into southwest Montana and
Lemhi County Idaho into Saturday so precipitation may linger in
these areas.


.AVIATION...Patchy fog and low clouds are expected again for
Monday morning in mainly the Idaho river valleys, and for the
Camas Prairie of north-central Idaho. In addition, some brief fog
and low clouds may form along the lower Clark Fork River in
Montana. Otherwise, mainly clear skies are expected. Moderate
easterly flow through the terrain will decrease overnight.



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