Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 270942

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
342 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

...Cold front Saturday, pattern change for weekend & next week...


Several more smoky days are in store for much of the Northern
Rockies as fires remain active in the region, bringing poor air
quality to many locations. Valleys will continue to see the worst
conditions, especially valleys in central Idaho.

Meanwhile, some late-season monsoonal moisture brushing the
region will bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon, mainly from Lemhi County ID through southwest Montana.
While these storms should be a bit wetter than recent days, enough
low-level dryness lingers to bring a continued threat of gusty
winds with any storms. Despite monsoonal moisture moving out of
the region, another round of afternoon storms will be possible
again Friday afternoon.

Saturday will be the start of a pattern change away from the
stagnant high pressure for the Northern Rockies. A shortwave
trough will swing through the region in the late afternoon and
evening Saturday, though precipitation looks to be limited for most
locations. Northwest Montana will see the highest probability of
receiving measurable rainfall. The more widespread potential
impact will be the wind. Gusty southwest winds ahead of the front
could potentially help clear out some of the smoke in the region.
However, due to the increased winds, fire activity could increase.

Another front is expected to move in late Sunday, again with increased
winds with little precipitation. Model consensus indicates that
the Northern Rockies will remain under a moist southwest to west
flow through next week. This will keep most at or just below
normal for temperatures, and the potential for above normal


.AVIATION...Smoke will continue to reduce visibility and obscure
terrain throughout the area, especially for the valleys of
central Idaho. Afternoon breezes could help thin the smoke out,
but only marginal visibility improvements can be expected.
Vicinity showers and thunderstorms will again be a threat for KBTM
and KSMN this afternoon and evening.



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