Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 022317
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
617 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ATMOSPHERE AT 22Z WAS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH SPC MESO PAGE WAS
SHOWING 100 MB ML CAPE VALUES OVER 5000 J/KG ALONG SOUTHWARD MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EFFECTIVE SHEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 KNOTS BUT
SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING A QUITE NOTICEABLE COOLING
TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALL THIS IN PART TO NW FLOW ALOFT
BRINGING A CANADIAN AIR MASS INTO THE LOWER 48 WITH THE BRUNT OF CAA
DROPPING DOWN THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

FOR TONIGHT...NAM12 BNDRY LYR MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS QUITE OVERDONE
IN COMPARISON TO GFS20 SOLUTION WITH THE LATEST ECM/CMC LENDING
SUPPORT SHOWING TO A DRIER AIR MASS QUICKLY FILTERING IN. AND AT
THIS POINT BELIEVE SMALL OVERNIGHT POPS IS REASONABLE. ON MONDAY THE
BNDRY IS PROGGED TO STALL OUT IN THE VICINITY OF THE SRN CWA WITH
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ON EDGE OF CAP. STRENGTHENING LLVL JET MONDAY
NIGHT WILL THEN RESULT IN INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF PCPN
ACTIVITY OVER THE CWA.

SFC BNDRY ADVERTISED TO SLOWLY LIFT AND FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN IN
THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE NERN CWA TUESDAY WHERE AFTN INSTABILITY
AXIS WILL SET UP PER THE NAM12/GFS20. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN FOCUS
FOR POPS IN THOSE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS FOR WED...WILL CONTINUE
SMALL POPS IN LIGHT OF VIGOROUS LITTLE VORT MAX TRACKING THRU.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING
PREVAILING OVER THE CONUS. GFS/ECM/CMC QPF PLACEMENT APPEAR TO BE
GENERALLY SIMILAR...BUT BELIEVE THEY ARE SOMEWHAT EXCESSIVE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PDS. AND FOR NOW ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
MADE TO GOING POP FCST.

REGARDING TEMPS...METEOGRAMS ACROSS THE CWA INDICATE BELOW NORMAL
MAX TEMPS ARE IN STORE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH AFTN HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WIND SHIFT CONTINUED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD...AND SOME ISOLD TO SCT
TSTMS HAD DEVELOPED AT OF 615 PM CDT. STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
AFFECT THE KLNK TAF SITE THIS EVENING AND INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP
FOR THAT WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR VSBY. STORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT ITS TOO HARD TO PIN DOWN TIMING ON THAT
FOR THE INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES. LOOKS LIKE ANY CEILINGS WOULD BE
ABOVE 5000 FEET OUTSIDE OF TSTM ACTIVITY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER



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