Area Forecast Discussion
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712
FXUS61 KPBZ 040643
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
243 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. MAINLY DRY FRIDAY BEFORE SHOWER CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF LATER TODAY OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH SHOWERS INCREASING WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY. WITH SOME INSOLATION IN THE MORNING AND HEIGHT FALLS IN
THE AFTERNOON HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. AS CLOSED LOW
DEEPENS TONIGHT TOWARD KENTUCKY...THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BE
UNDER DEFORMATION ZONE ON FRONT SIDE OF LOW...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL MID LEVEL CLOSED SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND CLOSED
LOW COMBINED WITH COLD POOL ALOFT WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY LOW MAY BECOME BECOME
MORE ELONGATED NEAR THE COAST...ALTHOUGH NEWEST LONGER RANGE
MODELS DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF LOW LIFTING OUT. HAVE
KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE RIDGES FRIDAY WITH A DRYING TREND
ELSEWHERE. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT TO SHUNT LOW TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING BACK SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY
WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPR TROF AND SFC BOUNDARY PASSAGE IS PROGGED ERLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH THE BEST CHCS FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...BUILDING RIDGING
SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER UNTIL AN APPROACHING UPR TROF
ADVANCES OUT OF THE MID WEST BY MID WEEK. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LVLS
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVG BY MID WEEK. THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE...WITH DOWNWARD MID WEEK POP ADJUSTMENT...WAS USED FOR
THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE AFTN...THOUGH APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN INCRG SHOWER CHCS BY AFTN FOR WHICH
A VCSH MENTION WAS MAINTAINED. BETTER CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED BY EVENING WHEN THE BEST MOISTURE AND
LIFT IS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THU/FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NGT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



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