Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210433
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1233 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF AXIS OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY THIS MRNG WL
CONT TO DEEPEN AND CUTOFF TDA AS JET STREAK SLIDES OVR THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. NMRS TO WIDESPREAD SHWRS WL THUS RMN IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE DRY ADVCTN IN BNDRY LYR...WITH FOCUS OVR NRN AND
ERN ZONES AS FLOW WRAPS WITH THE DEEPENING LOW. IN GENL...FEW
CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TDAS DAMP AND COOL PROGNOSIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE MID-WEEK UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR THE
CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEEKEND.
TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM PD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVG UPR LOW ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WL MAINTAIN MVFR CONDS
AND PDS OF SHWRS ACRS AREA PORTS THRU TNGT. THE EXCEPTION WL BE
SOME OCNL IFR CIGS THAT ARE EXPD MAINLY FOR PORTS FM PIT NWD ERLY
THIS MRNG.

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THU WITH SLOW MOVG LOW PRES ACRS THE
MID ATLANTIC RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07




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