Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311229
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
829 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and seasonably warm weather can then be expected into mid
week. A cold front will increase rain chances for the latter half
of the work-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The only changes needed for the post dawn update involved
adjustments to hourly trends and included an upward bump to
overall high temperatures given cirrus-filtered insolation and
slightly lower dewpoints than previous days.

A clear sky and light wind with those lower dewpoints tonight
will support morning lows about 5 degrees above the averages.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dry and warm weather can be expected Wednesday under eroding high
pressure. Models remain in overall agreement in depictions of a
shortwave/associated cold frontal approach Wednesday night and
Thursday, with gradual pop escalation to "likely" numbers by
Thursday. Above average temperatures are anticipated given the
warm, moist advection in advance of the system.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Little change to previous thinking as model guidance suggests
that the front will lag in complete passage through Friday with
chance pops maintained. While differences in evolution of the
pattern over the weekend into early next week remain, overall
trend of developing and deepening mid and upper level trough
continues in all models, as a series of shortwaves move through
the base of the trough. Will keep shower chances through the
period. Temperatures will trend 5 to 10 degrees below average by
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will maintain general VFR for the TAF period with
exceptions for peri-dawn fog.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Restrictions are likely with a late week cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
15


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.