Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 262316

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
716 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Rain is expected tonight and again Monday night into Tuesday as
areas of low pressure cross the region. Dry weather and seasonal
temperatures are expected by mid week.


Low pressure near Chicago is progged to track to Southern
Ontario by morning. Increasing shortwave support through the
evening should continue to result in showers crossing the
region. Meso analysis shows very little instability across our
area, though with elevated shear levels gusty winds are
possible in any storm that becomes organized through early
evening. The low`s associated occluded front is progged for a
light night passage, with decreasing shower chances thereafter.

Shortwave ridging should return dry weather to the area by late
morning. Temperatures are expected to average 10 to 20 degrees
above seasonal levels.


By Monday evening showers along with another low pressure system
will begin to move in from the west, and another round of
showers is forecast late Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Showers will linger into Tuesday afternoon before high pressure
brings cooler and drier air for Tuesday night and Wednesday.
While the first 24 hours of the period will remain mild, values
Tuesday night and Wednesday will be about 10 degrees cooler than
the previous day.


A sprawling low pressure system will spread rain across much of
the eastern United States. The ECMWF and GFS have come into
better agreement than they were 24 hours ago, showing showers
moving into the region Thursday night, continuing into Friday
and Friday night. A stray shower could remain into Saturday
before dry weather returns Saturday night and Sunday. Seasonable
temperatures are expected through the extended forecast.


An upper level low pressure will cross tonight into tomorrow
spreading showers to the region. Overall confidence is medium
to high with greatest uncertainty in how low visibility will go
in a heavier shower. Would not be surprised to see brief IFR. However
for the sake of the TAF, did not include that since it would
last less than 30 minutes. The initial round will move through
by 2z then another will traverse between 3Z- 10Z. Cigs will drop
to MVFR during the overnight hours, but will climb back to low
end VFR Monday afternoon. Most of Monday will be dry however
pockets of mid level instability will produce scattered showers,
but coverage is too low for TAF inclusion.

Gusty SE winds at FKL and DUJ will slacken toward 4Z when the
flow veers to the south. Otherwise a turn to the southwest will
be common over the next six hours.

Restrictions are likely again Mon night/Tue with a crossing
cold front.





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