Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 031711
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1211 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cloudy and seasonably cool weather will continue today. The next
chance for widespread precipitation will come early Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Little change needed with noon update to forecast. Flurries have
already diminished across the Pittsburgh metro area. Cold
northwest flow off the Lakes will maintain widespread cloudiness.
Low mixing levels/lack of dendrite formation will inhibit
problematic snow shower potential.

Weakening flow under building high pressure may alleviate the
clouds tonight. Temperature under this low amplitude pattern will
remain near the seasonal averages.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Split mid level flow continues to result in a difficult
precipitation forecast for Sunday afternoon and night. Have
continued with chance pops everywhere, with a rain snow mix
possible most areas. Again only light accumulation possible
generally north of State route 422 in PA. Precipitation will
shift east by Monday as shortwave exits east. Quiet weather will
be short lived however as low pressure will be quickly moving
northeast toward the region with mainly rain arriving Monday night
and continuing into Tuesday. Temperatures will remain near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Timing of a strong cold front continues to be uncertain in the
models, with the GFS still faster than the ECMWF. Have again used
the model blend with a nod toward WPC extended progs. This will
push the cold front across the region by Thursday, with much
colder air and scattered snow showers to end the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR cigs can be expected at all ports except ZZV through most of
the day as cold advection maintains the mixing layer, which looks
to be shallow enough to leave snow showers unmentionable. Improvement
is anticipated from the southwest tonight as northwest flow at the
top of the boundary layer weakens, but restrictions with residual
moisture and upslope should persist at FKL and DUJ through the
night.

.OUTLOOK...
Restrictions are likely with crossing low pressure systems during
the first half of the new week.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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