Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 262111
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
511 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather can be expected until the approach of low
pressure on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Changes for the early eve update were minor, but included
adjustments to cloud cover as cirrostratus blowing off of the
convective complex crossing WV is more extensive than previously
thought.

The shortwave spawning that convection will slowly progress
eastward this evening. Small PoPs over areas south of I 70, where
the surface boundary is stalled, will be maintained through the
eve.

Otherwise, no changes were completed to the temperature forecast
which was based on a model blend solution.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Guidance continues to keep the stalled boundary over the southeast
zones and initiate convection over the most unstable areas while
another weak shortwave crosses the region.

Otherwise, Zonal flow/flat ridging should maintain dry, but
continued warm weather through much of Wednesday. Thereafter,
POPs will be on the increase with the approach of low pressure on
Thursday. For now, highest QPF resides over the southeast portions
of the forecast area where the track of the low is forecast to
progress.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A series of shortwaves and development of a broad, but shallow
trough over the Eastern CONUS is forecast to support periodic rain
chances and seasonal temperatures through the weekend. Ridging
should return dry weather by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected to continue through Wednesday
with building high pressure N of I 70. A weak surface boundary
south of I 70 could result in a few showers through early tonight,
but mention was reserved for amendments as coverage looks to be
sparse near terminals. Mid and upper cloudiness should limit fog,
but mention will be maintained over southern terminals, where
moisture will remain pooled near the stalled front.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure should return potential restrictions late Thursday
and Friday, with upper troughing maintaining periodic restriction
chances through the weekend.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
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