Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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FXUS66 KPDT 281108 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
408 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT. DESPITE THE
NORTHWEST FLOW HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING TODAY
RESULTING IN THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN
THE 80S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 60S AND 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE MID 90S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH 70S TO MID 80S MOUNTAINS. THEN ON THURSDAY THE
WARMING WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND 80S TO NEAR 90 IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH LOW HUMIDITIES
AND A DRY AIR MASS. THERE IS A HINT OF SOME MONSOON MOISTURE WORKING
IT`S WAY NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL STAY MOSTLY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH PERHAPS JUST SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS IN CENTRAL
OREGON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 88


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN HAVING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
STATES THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF IS THE PROGRESSION OF MONSOON MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA. THE GFS BEGINS TO BRING THE MOISTURE ON SATURDAY JUST
TO THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF OUR AREA SOUTH OF BEND THEN PROGRESSES IT
FURTHER NORTH EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE ECMWF HAS MUCH LESS
MOISTURE AND MOSTLY KEEPS IT OUT OF OUR AREA. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ECMWF WOULD GIVE US DRY WEATHER.
CURRENT FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE GFS SO HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON AS FAR NORTH AS MADRAS AND
FROM THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS AND BLUE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S WITH MID 80S TO MID
890S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HRS. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AREA WIDE WITH JUST SOME HIGH CIRRUS
AND A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN
15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  84  53  93  59 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  86  58  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  87  51  97  62 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  84  53  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  87  52  96  61 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  86  51  96  60 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  83  43  93  50 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  80  42  90  51 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  85  46  94  53 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  90  57  99  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/83/83


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