Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 030814
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
214 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
SHIFTING EAST LATER TODAY...WITH A RETURN TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE TREND IN THE MODELS
NOW IS TO CLOSE THE LOW OFF FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...ALONG THE
COAST SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO. THAT IS SLOWING DOWN THE ONSET OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE`VE THINNED OUT THOSE CHANCES
STARTING WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT HELD OFF FOR NOW DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. EACH MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT FLAVOR ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POTENTIAL TREND
TOWARD SLIGHTLY DRIER AND CONFINING ANY RISK OF STORMS TO THE
MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY THE MORE WEST YOU GO. AT THIS POINT...THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOT OF DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WHICH WOULD
INDICATE LITTLE PRECIPITATION FALLING. WE DID INCREASE SOUTHERLY
WINDS A BIT AND ALSO PUSHED TEMPERATURES UP A BIT ESPECIALLY WHERE
WE GET SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW. WE MAY SEE LOWER 80S IN SOME SPOTS FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS. KEYES

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING
INLAND EARLY IN THE PERIOD CUTS OFF INTO DEEP UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST US. MOIST SOUTH FLOW IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY FOR DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD
LINGER OVERNIGHT. MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND AS UPPER
LOW WEAKENS AND FILLS WHILE IT TRIES TO SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF NORTHERN
STREAM KICKER TROUGH DRIVING THROUGH CANADA. HAVE KEPT HIGHER
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY BUT WEAKLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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