Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 182046

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
146 PM MST Sat Nov 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday. Clouds should thin some this
evening, then another round of clouds currently just off the WA/OR
coast should drift through. Played Sunday morning low temperatures
to the cold side, especially in the mountains around Stanley and a
few places near the Wyoming border where some single digit lows are
expected. Clouds will be important here. Model consensus is to
increase the amplitude of a weak ridge over this area Monday and
Tuesday, even into Wednesday. That results in a little warmer
temperatures and higher snow levels. Most of the moisture is high
level until Monday, then some mid level clouds. The GFS is the most
aggressive with precipitation for the lower valleys, the European
less so. Estimate snow accumulation around Galena Summit on Monday
could be 2 to 4 inches, the rest of the mountains 1 to 2, and for
the lower valleys with the rising snow levels, little or no
accumulation. Rain fall in the valleys could be 0.01 to 0.04
inches. Snow levels Monday will be 4500 to 5000 feet, rising to
6500 to 7000 feet overnight. Tuesday is even warmer so very little
accumulation is expected even in the mountains on Tuesday. RS

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through next Saturday. Heading into
Thanksgiving, the trend of the models and ensembles show continued
light rain and snow for the central mountains and Upper Snake
Highlands. The trends also show less and less chance farther south
and across the Snake Plain. That said, there is enough there
(including in the blended data) to keep at least a slight chance of
in the forecast outside of those areas. It all really depends on how
much moisture makes it over the top of the ridge. Right now, we
are`t looking for any impacts that would greatly limit travel and
such, but certainly make sure you pay attention to see if anything
changes.  It looks like heading OUT of Thanksgiving and into the
rest of the holiday weekend: A better chance of rain and snow exists
Friday as a storm sweeps through the northern Rockies. It looks
breezy also but any impacts from blowing snow look minimal and
potentially even above pass levels. Temperatures start out VERY WARM
for this time of year and potentially will be 10 to almost 20
degrees ABOVE AVERAGE!  They cool off by next weekend, but still
running close to 10 degrees above normal.  Keyes


.AVIATION...VFR weather will persist through the next 24 hours.
There will be some risk of lower clouds and patchy fog, but at this
point we are not forecasting any impacts at TAF sites. Just
something to keep in mind in case it does pop up.  Keyes




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