Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 300859

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
259 AM MDT Tue May 30 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thu night. Upper level ridge will
slowly break down over the next couple of days, with a trough
pushing through Thu/Thu night. For today and Wed, there is a
boundary along/near the Continental Divide that could trigger
thunderstorms and showers in the central ID mountains and in the
highlands in the north and east. However, the chance is very
slight, and most will see nearly clear skies for the next couple
of days. This is allowing the temperatures to continue warming,
with temperatures peaking in the middle to upper 80s on Wed. By
Wed afternoon, the approaching trough and associated surface cold
front will kick up the wind to at least breezy, but stronger wind
will come with the greater precipitation on Thu/Thu night. Still,
the chance for precipitation is fairly low, with only the
mountains and highlands registering anything higher than 25
percent. Temperatures will cool 10 to 15 deg F from Wed to Thu as

.LONG TERM...Fri through Mon night. After the Thu/Thu night
frontal passage, conditions are dry until possibly Sun afternoon.
Temperatures continue mainly in the 70s for the lower elevations,
right around climatic normals. By Sun, another trough is along the
west coast and pumping in moisture from the Pacific into eastern
Idaho. The handling of this trough is much different between the
ECMWF and the GFS. The ECMWF has a more northerly and drier track;
the GFS swings the trough in with a direct hit on central and
southern Idaho. The differences beyond this day grow immensely
with the trough`s progression and secondary cylco-genesis. There
is potential for some winds on Mon.



All terminals should expect VFR conditions today. A few locations
along the WY and MT borders could see an isolated thunderstorm today
but the threat is extremely low. DMH


Generally dry conditions are expected to begin the East Idaho fire
season. A few locations could see an isolated thunderstorm this
afternoon and evening, mainly through the Lemhi and Teton regions.
Precipitation will be sparse. Slightly higher chances occur
Wednesday across portions of the central mountains, spreading across
all of the region Thursday. Look for winds to be breezy and gusty
each afternoon especially Thursday and Friday with slightly cooler
temperatures for those days. DMH


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