Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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000
FXZS60 NSTU 310113
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
213 PM SST SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERIES SHOW AN
ACTIVE SURFACE TROUGH ORIENTED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS. A BROAD AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTIONS IS LOCATED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE SAMOAN GROUP. RAOB FROM THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A
STABLE PROFILE. MODELS ARE NOW MINIMIZING SHOWERS OVER THE
TERRITORY DURING THE SHORT TERM. THE ACTIVE SURFACE TROUGH HAVE
AGAIN CHANGED COURSE. INSTEAD OF DESCENDING DIRECTLY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS...IT IS NOW BEEN PUSHED WEST THEN SOUTHWEST BEFORE
TRACKING TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL AMEND THE
PREVIOUS FCST TO REFLECT THE CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT. EXPECT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND BREEZY TRADES DURING THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
FARTHER SOUTHEAST...DECELERATING AND SHIFTING TRADES TO GENTLE
EAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ATTACH TO
THE THEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL PASS ACROSS THE ISLANDS ON
FRIDAY. EAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM.
EXPECT GENTLE EAST WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE LONG
TERM. WILL KEEP SHOWERS AT A MINIMUM AMOUNT FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS
SHOW CONSISTENCY IN THE NEXT FEW RUNS.

&&

.MARINE...
HAZARDOUS SEAS AND SURFS WILL CONTINUE TO BOUND SOUTHERN FACING
SHORES AND COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 12 TO
14 FT WILL SUBSIDE 9 TO 12 FT ON TUESDAY BEFORE FALLING BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLD ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT

&&

$$

MALALA






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