Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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FXZS60 NSTU 261325
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
225 AM SST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...
.TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05F WAS
CENTERED ABOUT 30 NM NORTH OF SWAINS...OR ABOUT 220 NM NORTH OF
TUTUILA...OR ABOUT 240 NM NORTHWEST OF MANUA...MOVING NEARLY
STATIONARY. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05F HAS BECOME INVIGORATED OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS CREATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE OVER SWAINS AND TOKELAU ISLANDS.

A MONSOON TROUGH AXIS RUNS FROM THE DATE LINE TO THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05F TO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 03F NEAR 20S 157W. THE LATEST GFS AND UKMET MODELS
HAVE STRUGGLED TO FOLLOW 05F AND ITS MOST RECENT ACTIVITY.
THUS...EARLIER SPECULATION ON THE MOVEMENT OF 05F WILL EVENTUALLY
BRING NUMEROUS TO FREQUENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
OVER TUTUILA AND MANUA AS 05F DESCENDS TOWARD THE SAMOAN ISLANDS
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PREVIOUS GFS COMPUTER MODELS HINTS AT
BRINGING THE CENTER OF 05F CLOSER TO APIA WHILE THE BULK OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS
WHICH PUTS TUTUILA AND MANUA AT A RISK OF POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

THE TRADE-WIND REGIME WILL PERSIST UNTIL 05F MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE
MAIN SAMOAN ISLAND CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. ANTICIPATE
LOCAL WINDS TO BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ON UPOLU WESTWARD...BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
05F DIGS CLOSER TO SAMOA THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATE WINDS AND
SHOWERS TO PICK UP AS WELL OVER THE INDEPENDENT STATE OF SAMOA
THROUGH SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...
.SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A MONSOON TROUGH FROM TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
05F WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO TUTUILA AND MANUA DURING SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK. THE EXPECTED MONSOON TROUGH WILL ENHANCE WET WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO LINGER OVER SWAINS AND NEAR MANUA RESPECTIVELY IN
THE COMING DAYS. THUS...ONLY MINIMAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REMAINING FCST ZONES. WILL MONITOR THIS SITUATION AND PROVIDE
UPDATES AS NEW MODELS BECOME AVAILABLE.

&&

.MARINE...HAZARDOUS SEA HEIGHTS OF 9 TO 12 FEET WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS OF 8 FEET STARTING MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...
THE DEVELOPING INTENSITY OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05 WILL REINFORCE
THE EXISTING TRADE-WIND GENERATED SEAS AND SWELLS TO CLIMB TO NEAR
BORDERLINE OF THE WARNING THRESHOLD DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVENT. THUS...ISSUANCE OF THE SMALL CRAFTS
AND HIGH SURFS ADVISORY ARE MANDATORY TO REFLECT THIS SITUATION.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SWAINS ISLAND.
.A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ISLANDS
.A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ISLANDS
.A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ISLANDS.

&&

$$

BAQUI









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