Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
000
FXZS60 NSTU 290349 AAA
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
449 PM SST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATED...A MONSOONAL TROUGH AXIS HAS ENHANCED SCATTERED TO FREQUENT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MANUA AND SWAINS THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OFFSHORES FROM TUTUILA
WESTWARD. HAVE UPDATED THE FIRST PERIOD ON THE PREV FCST TO REFLECT
THE ONSET OF INCREASING RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MANUA AND
SWAINS ISLANDS FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A MONSOON TROUGH FROM YESTERDAY
REMAINS EVIDENT TO THE NORTH AND EAST QUADRANTS OF THE SAMOAN
ISLANDS. AS THE MONSOONAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS DRIFTED OVER MANUA...THIS
WEATHER PHENOMENON WILL TRIGGER NUMEROUS TO FREQUENT SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA STARTING TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON
THE LOCATION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS TONIGHT...STRONG GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED NEAR TUTUILA AND MANUA. A WIND ADVISORY AND ISSUANCE OF
HYDROLOGICAL PRODUCTS ARE MANDATORY TO REFLECT THIS EXPECTED
SITUATION.

.LONG TERM...
.SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE/S A NEW TRANSITION WITH THE
LATEST WEATHER FORECAST. A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA WILL USHER DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THE GFS MODEL MATERIALIZES TWO SEPARATE CIRCULATION TO THE WEST OF
THE DATE LINE...AND THESE CIRCULATIONS WILL DRAW HEAVY MOISTURE
AND STRONG WINDS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION. IF
MODELS ARE CORRECT...ONLY MINIMAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
LONG-TERM FCST PERIOD. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE WIND SPEED FROM
THE PREV FCST THE SAME WHILE REDUCING THE SHOWER COVERAGE STARTING
ON SUNDAY TO SCATTERED WORDING.

&&

.MARINE...THE LATEST WAVE WATCH MODEL SHOWS SEA HEIGHTS RISING TO
NEAR 10 TO 12 FEET STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN PEAKING
TO NEAR 14 FEET DURING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.A WIND ADVISORY FOR MANUA AND SWAINS UNTIL FRIDAY.
.A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
.A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
.A HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

$$

BAQUI







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.