Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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FXZS60 NSTU 240115

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
215 PM SST Fri Feb 23 2018

.Short term...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...Active surface trough over the
islands is slowly moving west southwest. Ridge following behind
will bring in stable weather on Saturday morning. RAOB from this
afternoon depicts a saturated and a conditional unstable profile.
Models have now slightly lower the northerly flow to breezy and
gusty tonight before shifting to gentle northeast flow on
Saturday. Winds will again shift east on Saturday night.

.Long term...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...Ridge will continue to provide stable
weather through Wednesday. As the ridge moves south, winds will
diminish to light and variable on Thursday. Expect stable weather
for the rest of the new week.


PACIOOS Buoy near Aunuu shows seas near 7 to 9 feet. FNMOC Wave
Watch III now show seas of 7 to 9 feet through Saturday.
Interestingly...long period NW swells are expected to arrive today
through Monday prior to the arrival of another separate swell
from the south on Monday night. This expected situation will
likely maintain significant sea heights near advisory levels over
the next several days. Thus...will keep the advisories for small
crafts and high surfs in effect through Monday night.


Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through 3 am SST Saturday.
High surf advisory remains in effect through Monday night.
Small craft advisory remains in effect through Monday  night.



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