Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 262136

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
740 AM ChST Thu Apr 27 2017

.Marianas Synopsis...
Residual convergence east of Tropical Storm Muifa could trigger some
more showers this afternoon and tonight, however the threat of
heavy rain has diminished. Trade winds are filtering back into the
region from the east and should be firmly back in place by


Could see some re-development of showers this afternoon with the last
of the convergence east of Tropical Storm Muifa. With the main body
of it having pushed to the west of us though, the threat of further
soaking heavy rain has diminished. What a ride this has been, with
two daily rainfall records in the past 3 days. The drought index is
now a paltry 77, a mere shadow of itself just a few days ago. Fire
weather season will have a hard time getting started again after


.Tropical systems...
Tropical Storm Muifa had another convective blowup right over its
center, so while it is still just a minimal Tropical Storm, it is not
giving up the ghost just yet. However, it will be moving into an area
of increased vertical shear and it is not strong enough to be able to
fight it off. Therefore it is expected to weaken starting tonight or
Friday, and could even dissipate by Saturday.


.Eastern Micronesia...
Only a few minor changes made to the forecast as a dry trade-wind
pattern persists across the region. Pohnpei is on the eastern edge of
a trade-wind disturbance that will bring a slight chance of
thunderstorms to the island tonight and Friday. Otherwise, drier
weather seen farther east will spread westward into Pohnpei by the
weekend. Trade-wind convergence will cause clouds and showers to
increase at Kosrae Saturday and Sunday, and then at Pohnpei Sunday.


.Western Micronesia...
TS Muifa, well northwest of Yap, continues to move away. Convergent
southeast winds are causing some showers and thunderstorms near Yap
that will continue through Friday before a quieter trade-wind pattern
returns over the weekend. Koror will see calm weather with a gentle
southwest wind. Lighter winds on Saturday could allow for some island
convection so have included a slight chance of thunderstorms for

A trade-wind disturbance near Chuuk could spark a few thunderstorms
in the area today, before convection shifts back south later in the
week. Trade-wind convergence extending from eastern Micronesia will
bring a slight chance of thunderstorms again over the weekend.


Marianas Waters...None.


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