Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 131914
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
514 AM CHST MON JUL 14 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
GENTLE TRADES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE MARIANAS.
THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG 10N.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF TS RAMMASUN...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z GFS DEVELOPS A MONSOON
CIRCULATION LATE IN THE WEEK EAST OF YAP THAT MOVES NORTH AND
BRINGS HEAVY RAIN TO THE MARIANAS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT IT IS
MISSING FROM THE NEW ECMWF. SO FOR NOW...HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
THE NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED EXCEPT
DURING A SLIGHTLY DRIER PERIOD WED-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
REFRESHED THE WAVE AND WIND GRIDS...GIVING US 3-4 FT SEAS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...IN LINE WITH THE BUOYS. RAMMASUN IS RACING WESTWARD AWAY
FROM THE MARIANAS AND IT IS STILL A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM...SO
HAVE REDUCED WEST SWELL DOWN TO 2 FT...STILL MORE THAN LATEST WW3
TABULAR GUIDANCE. RIP RISK SHOULD STAY LOW THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS STRETCHED ROUGHLY ALONG 7N-9N ACROSS
EASTERN MICRONESIA THROUGH WEAK CIRCULATIONS NORTH OF POHNPEI AND
EAST OF KWAJALEIN. ACTIVE CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS BUT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF MAJURO TONIGHT. A DRIER
TRADE-WIND PATTERN RETURNS TO THE RMI BY MIDWEEK AS THE MONSOON
TROUGH WEAKENS AND RETREATS FARTHER WEST. MODELS KEEP FAIRLY
ACTIVE WEATHER OVER POHNPEI TODAY AND POSSIBLY THROUGH TUESDAY.
MOST OF THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF KOSRAE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RIDGING TO THE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH PROVIDES QUIETER WEATHER OVER THE STATE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVERGING LOW-LEVEL WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SOUTH OF TROPICAL STORM
RAMMASUN WILL BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO YAP
AND KOROR WATERS TODAY BUT SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ISOLATED AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY SHIFTED NORTH OF THESE
LOCATIONS. AN EXTENDED ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD APPEARS LIKELY AT KOROR
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. INCREASING AND CONVERGING W-SW
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING MONSOON DEPRESSION SOUTHEAST
OF YAP ARE PROGGED TO EMERGE AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO KOROR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF YAP. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION
INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF CHUUK STATE BUT RELATIVELY LITTLE
ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED NEAR WENO. A QUIETER RIDGING PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE WEST OF THE STATE.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/WILLIAMS





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