Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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192
FXPQ60 PGUM 120714
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
514 PM CHST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SHEAR LINE HAS MOVED TO JUST SOUTH OF GUAM. RADAR AND
SATELLITE SHOW PATCHY CLOUDS AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FORECAST ZONES. BUOYS ARE RUNNING MOSTLY 10 TO 11 FEET AND
VAD GRADIENT WINDS ARE FROM NE AT 25 TO 30 KT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE NEARBY SHEAR LINE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE STRONG TRADE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY LATE MONDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS MODEL
DOES BRING ANOTHER SHEAR LINE SOUTHWARD DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT IT STALLS NEAR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANAS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE NORTH FACING SHORES BASED ON
LOCAL BUOY REPORTS OF 10 TO 11-FOOT MIXED SEAS FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. A LOCAL SURF OBSERVER ALSO REPORTED 9 FEET ON NORTH
EXPOSURES NEAR OKA POINT THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT. HAZARDOUS SURF AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
SHOULD RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE MOVED
ACROSS GUAM RECENTLY...BUT WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AND DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVERGING TRADE WINDS ARE CAUSING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS CHUUK AND POHNPEI STATES WHILE PATCHY AREAS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS PERSIST OVER KOSRAE STATE. A DISTURBANCE NEAR THE DATE
LINE IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF TARAWA. MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE FOCUS OF CONVERGENCE AND MOST SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF 5N IN THE COMING DAYS. MODELS ALSO
INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE EAST OF TARAWA WILL EDGE WESTWARD AND
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS BY SUNDAY. THEN...AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES FARTHER WEST...A FEW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD OVER
KOSRAE AND POHNPEI ON SUNDAY...AND OVER CHUUK BY MONDAY. A DRIER
TRADE-WIND PATTERN SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THESE FORECAST POINTS
NEXT WEEK.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR CHUUK...POHNPEI AND
KOSRAE...AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MAJURO OVER THE WEEKEND.
SEA CONDITONS ARE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT AT CHUUK...AND WILL
DEVELOP AT POHNPEI...KOSRAE AND MAJURO OVER THE WEEKEND. LARGE
NORTHEAST WAVES GENERATED BY STRONG TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH A
LARGE NORTH SWELL ARRIVING ACROSS MUCH OF MICRONESIA WILL CAUSE
HAZARDOUS SEAS AND SURF DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK DISCUSSION INCLUDED WITH EASTERN MICRONESIA BECAUSE OF
SIMILAR CONDITIONS.

A SHEAR LINE STRETCHES FROM JUST SOUTH OF GUAM ACROSS YAP TO WEST
OF KOROR AND IS CAUSING CLOUDS AND PATCHY SHOWERS NEAR YAP AND
KOROR. MODELS INDICATE THE SHEAR LINE WILL WEAKEN WITH VERY DRY
WEATHER RE-DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR WESTERN MICRONESIA THROUGH THE
LONGER TERM...BUT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS ANYWAY.

HIGH SURF AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR KOROR
AND YAP. LARGE NORTHEAST WAVES GENERATED BY STRONG TRADE WINDS
ALONG WITH A LARGE NORTH SWELL MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MICRONESIA
WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS SURF AND SEA CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST MONDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST MONDAY
     FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

STANKO/SIMPSON



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