Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 012002
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
602 AM CHST SAT AUG 2 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS HAVE SETTLED IN OVER THE MARIANAS BETWEEN TS HALONG TO
THE WEST AND A WEAK CIRCULATION TO THE EAST...NORTH OF CHUUK. RADAR
SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS WEST THROUGH SOUTH OF GUAM AS WELL AS
OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS...ALL SHOWING LITTLE MOVEMENT. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A TUTT IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY RUNNING SSW-NNE
ALONG 148-149E EAST OF THE MARIANAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
NEARBY TUTT ALONG WITH GOOD MOISTURE SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR THAT.
LIGHT WINDS AND ISLAND HEATING WILL ALSO PROVIDE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR ISLAND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNINGS AND
AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY OVER GUAM. BEYOND SUNDAY...MID=LEVEL DRYING
SHOULD REDUCE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SO THE FORECAST IS
LITTLE CHANGED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THE REST OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
REFRESHED THE MARINE WAVE AND SWELL GRIDS...AS LATEST WW3 GUIDANCE
REDUCES SEAS BY 1-2 FEET OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MORE IN LINE
WITH THE BUOYS. EVEN SO...HIGH SURF ON THE WESTERN SHORES SHOULD
LAST AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A WEAK CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK MONSOON TROUGH WILL DRIFT
JUST NORTH OF CHUUK TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODEST CONVERGING WINDS SOUTH
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE TROUGH COULD TRIGGER A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR CHUUK...POHNPEI UNTIL SUNDAY AND KOSRAE THRU THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTERWARD A SURFACE HIGH SLIDING WESTWARD FROM NEAR THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS IS GOING TO PROMOTE PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR KOSRAE
LATER TONIGHT...POHNPEI AND CHUUK BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK
CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ARE SLOWLY INCHING TOWARD
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO TRIGGER
PERIODIC SHOWERS FOR MAJURO THRU THIS WEEKEND. AS ITS REMNANTS
CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY WESTWARD...THEY COULD ALSO BRING SIMILAR
WEATHER TO KOSRAE BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY POHNPEI...CHUUK
TOWARD MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES A CLOUD-FILLED EYE DEVELOPING
IN TROPICAL STORM HALONG...AND HALONG WILL LIKELY BECOME A TYPHOON
LATER TODAY. ASCAT SATELLITE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE
WIND FIELD OF HALONG REMAINS RELATIVELY COMPACT WITH A SMALL FETCH
AREA FOR GENERATING NORTHWEST SWELL. THEREFORE NO HAZARDOUS SURF
IS ANTICIPATED FOR YAP AND KOROR THRU TONIGHT. HOWEVER AS HALONG
INTENSIFIES AND DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD ON SUNDAY...THERE COULD BE A
LARGE ENOUGH FETCH AREA TO DIRECT LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL TOWARD
BOTH LOCATIONS. NEED TO MONITOR LOCAL SURF REPORT AND SATELLITE
DERIVED SEA HEIGHTS FOR POSSIBLE HIGH SURF. SLIGHTLY STRONGER
MONSOONAL SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS KOROR AND YAP WILL KEEP ISOLATED
CONVECTION THERE UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. THEN THE SURFACE RIDGE
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF BOTH PLACES SHOULD INTRODUCE STABLE CONDITIONS
BY MONDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST TUESDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/CHAN





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