Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KPSR 130327
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
827 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
DOMINANT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES...MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES. SOME RELIEF FROM THE UNUSUALLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL
ARRIVE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ARIZONA WAS BREAKING
DOWN THIS EVENING...WITH LOWER ATMOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS
VALUES FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY A SLIGHTLY THINNER
ATMOSPHERE...UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL NOT IMPACT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MUCH...WITH MORE RECORD AND OR NEAR RECORD
WARMTH TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK OK. NO
UPDATES NECESSARY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION OFFERS MORE DETAIL ON THIS
WEEKENDS PATTERN.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...200 PM MST...

A DEEP TROPOSPHERIC ANTI-CYCLONE REMAINS SITUATED OVER ERN ARIZONA
WITH 12Z SOUNDING DATA SAMPLING H5 HEIGHTS AT A RESOUNDING 586DM. IN
FACT...HEIGHTS ALOFT AND H7/H8 TEMPERATURES ALL FELL NEAR OR ABOVE
RECORD LEVELS FOR THE DATE PER 12Z KTWC SOUNDING. OVER THE
WEEKEND...THE LARGE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY PUSHING INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL ALLOW FOR THE TRAILING TROUGH AXIS TO BREAK INTO THE
WEST COAST RIDGE AXIS...EFFECTIVELY DAMPENING ITS AMPLITUDE AND
CAUSING MODEST HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE SWRN CONUS. DESPITE
THIS...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STABLE WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 15-18C (I.E. NEAR RECORD
LEVELS). AND ALTHOUGH HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY BE A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW PERSISTENCE...THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC POSITIVE ANOMALIES
WILL STILL EQUATE TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).

THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL REBUILD BEYOND THIS WEEKEND AND MOVE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE
SHOULD SEE NEAR OR RECORD HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS FOR MONDAY SHOULD
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THIS WEEKEND BEFORE GAINING A COUPLE DEGREES
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS
EASILY REACHING UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER DESERTS WHICH
AGAIN SHOULD BREAK SOME RECORDS ACROSS THE REGION. WE SHOULD GET
SOME MINOR RELIEF LATER NEXT WEEK AS A WEAKENING TROUGH IS SHOWN TO
PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS SHOULD BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...DROPPING OUR
TEMPERATURES WELL OUT OF RECORD TERRITORY...BUT LIKELY STILL NEAR 80
DEGREES OVER THE LOWER DESERTS FOR NEXT200 PM MST FRIDAY. THERE WILL
BE A MOISTURE INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM AND FOR
NOW AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY HIGH TERRAIN SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z SAT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AT MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT
SITES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL HOVER IN THE TEENS ACROSS ALL DISTRICTS. LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR INCREASED
NORTHERLY BREEZES ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&


.CLIMATE...

                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD /YEAR/  | FCST | RECORD /YEAR/

SAT FEB 13    87  |   88   / 1957  |  88  |  93    /1957
SUN FEB 14    86  |   85   / 2014  |  88  |  94    /1957
MON FEB 15    87  |   86   / 2014  |  86  |  89    /2014
TUE FEB 16    88  |   84   / 2014  |  87  |  88    /1981
WED FEB 17    89  |   88   / 2014  |  87  |  88    /2014

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS


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