Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 212147 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
247 PM MST THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. STORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY...GRADUALLY
RETURNING TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS RAPIDLY PICKED UP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA ZONES...THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...
AND AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL LA PAZ AND YUMA COUNTIES. SOME OF THESE
STORMS HAVE QUICKLY CLUSTERED AND EVOLVED TO SEVERE STATUS WITH
STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS 55KT...OTHER ISOLATED STORMS HAVE BEEN
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF 1-2 INCHES
PER HOUR.

CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
CREATED A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THUS TOOK A BITE OUT OF THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS KEPT STORM ACTIVITY TO A
MINIMUM SO FAR. THE HIGH AT PHOENIX PEAKED OUT AT 88 DEGREES AND
THAT WAS AT 10 AM THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EAST...THE COLD CORE 500MB TEMPS/-10 TO 12C/ WILL EVENTUALLY
MOVE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...IMPROVING LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY.
EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST
ACROSS MARICOPA COUNTY/PHOENIX METROPOLITAN AREA BY EARLY
EVENING...CONTINUING INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY...NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

THE LOW WILL MOVE MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...THE TROUGH AXIS
EXPECTED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ARIZONA BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING. MID LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH TURNS SHARPLY
OUT OF THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SO MOISTURE GETS SCOURED
OUT AND THE FLOW BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WOULD ANTICIPATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRETTY WORKED OVER AND
MORE STABLE ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM THIS EVENINGS
ACTIVITY THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE STORMS WILL
MATERIALIZE FRIDAY. STILL KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND MUCH OF THE SAME IS
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MIXING RATIOS CONTINUE
TO FALL TO AROUND 5-6 G/KG THIS WEEKEND. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL AS WE END THE WEEK...HOLDING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S OVER THE LOWER DESERTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BARLEY
BREAKING THE 100 DEGREE MARK SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND A FEW MORE
DEGREES OF WARMING FOR SUNDAY.

THERE IS A GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES THAT MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY/TUESDAY...
ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY CLEAR SIGNALS
ON WHICH DAY WILL BE ACTIVE. GOING TO RETAIN A LOW-GRADE MONSOON POP
FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
THE AREA. CONSEQUENTLY...INSTABILITY IS DIMINISHED AND THE THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS DECREASED. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN AZ. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE 01Z-05Z
PERIOD. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN...STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS EVEN LARGE HAIL. CIGS
MAY ALSO LOWER TO AROUND 7K FT WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS
BELOW 6SM. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 06Z WITH A BREAK IN THE
MONSOON ACTIVITY BEGINNING FRIDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON
AT BOTH KIPL AND KBLH. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
CIGS MAY ALSO LOWER TO AROUND 6K FT WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS BELOW 6SM. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 04Z WITH A
BREAK IN THE MONSOON ACTIVITY BEGINNING FRIDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HUMIDITIES TREND DOWNWARD SOME MORE OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE
REBOUNDING SOME NEXT WEEK. AIR WILL BE DRIEST OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND HAINES INDEX VALUES CLIMB TO 5 BEFORE IMPROVING BY
TUESDAY. HAINES VALUES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER EAST OF THERE DUE
TO BETTER MOISTURE. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL REMAIN GOOD...LESS SO
OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. STORM CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND LIMITED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH
TUESDAY...EXPANDING WESTWARD WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...AJ





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