Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 212216 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
315 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED CLOUDINESS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OFF THE WEST COAST. MODELS IN THE SHORT
TERM ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN...MAINTAINING 582-588DM 500MB HEIGHTS ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME...BUT
DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A FEW DEGREES MONDAY/TUESDAY...
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE LOWER DESERTS...BUT NOT TO THE
DEGREE IF RIDGE AXIS WERE TO MOVE OVERHEAD. ALSO...A COUPLE SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES...ACCOMPANIED BY A RATHER POTENT 160-180KT UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS/NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. SO ANY
WARMING TO OUR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE OFFSET AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM THE EXPANDING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH MOVES
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY...WITH NO PRECIP
CHANCES...AND WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY TUESDAY...WITH LOCAL WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH COMMON ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE
WINDS WILL ABATE WEDNESDAY...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
60S WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MODELS ARE BACK IN AGREEMENT
ONCE AGAIN INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROGRESSIVELY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...JUST BRUSHING PARTS
OF ARIZONA IN THE PROCESS. ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS IN SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...A TROUGH OF THIS NATURE SHOULD
HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...MAYBE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. FROM
THERE...BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE WITH NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...GUSTING TO 20 KTS. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING PHOENIX METRO.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE DRY AND HUMIDITIES WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME MODEST COOLING AS WELL. HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH DURING THE HOURS OF STRONGEST WINDS
TO AVOID CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. ANOTHER EPISODE OF ENHANCED WINDS IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND THERE IS ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ON
FRIDAY.
&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ/KUHLMAN





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