Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 212143
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
245 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

 .SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ENDING EARLY TONIGHT. THE STORM TRACK WILL GENERALLY SET UP ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND...BUT DRY WEATHER WITH COOLER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING
CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A SMALL BUT DYNAMICAL PACIFIC TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH SOUTHERN AZ THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM HAS LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT AS THE MULTIPLE HOURLY
WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS FROM THE YUMA PROVING GROUNDS INDICATED...
A SMALL AREA OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAVE GENERATED AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN GILA BEND...
PHOENIX...AND CASA GRANDE. EARLIER THIS MORNING 0.03 OF AN INCH OF
RAIN FELL IN EL CENTRO AND IMPERIAL CA AS THE TROF MOVED THROUGH.

THIS IS A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM SO PRECIP THREATS SHOULD DIMINISH
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH CLEARING SKIES.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE STORM TRACK THIS PERIOD WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND SET UP DIAGONALLY
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ARIZONA...WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDS...
HOWEVER A DRY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKLY MOVE SOUTH INTO AZ ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN
AZ SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH ALONG THE
COLORADO RIVER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REBUILD INTO THE REGION THIS PERIOD WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 70S...OR 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD BASES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
TO ABOUT 10 KFT MSL BEFORE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 23Z.
ANTICIPATE AREAS OF VIRGA WITH PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND ONLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES...GENERALLY
10KT OR LESS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30KT POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF
STRONGER CELLS/STORMS. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z SATURDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR AND FORCING
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN
ISOLATED SPOTS SUNDAY...MAINLY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY WHERE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE THE STRONGEST. WINDS STAY
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AT RIDGETOPS BUT WILL WEAKEN ON THE VALLEY
FLOORS. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL SHOW LITTLE IMPROVEMENT...REMAINING POOR TO
FAIR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS








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