Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 172008
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
308 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be overhead through this evening, then move
offshore late tonight. A much warmer southwest flow will overspread
the area Saturday, ahead of a cold front that will cross the region
Saturday night. Chilly high pressure will return for Sunday through
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 308 PM Friday...

Increasing high level moisture will lead to additional cirrus and
cirrostratus overnight. Much of the cirrus is expected to be thin
and this should not have much of an affect on cooling. We will
expect fair to good radiational cooling with periods of mostly clear
skies alternating with partly cloudy. Expect calm conditions under
high pressure. Lows generally in the 30s (coolest NE where lows in
the lower to mid 30s likely).

Strengthening SW flow 20-25kt is forecast just above the boundary
layer in the western areas late tonight. This may allow a slight
uptick in surface winds to 5-8 mph late in the Triad and surrounding
areas. Otherwise, the main return SW flow will not become evident
until after sunrise Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 308 PM Friday...

The main theme of Saturday`s weather will be the wind. Expect SW
winds at 15-20 mph to develop by late morning, especially in the
western Piedmont. The WAA SW winds will overspread all areas for the
afternoon at 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Partly sunny skies are
forecast with the most sunshine expected in the east, with
increasing amounts of cloudiness in the west during the afternoon
likely yielding rather threatening looking skies by sunset. Showers
should remain NW of the area through sunset. Highs in the mid 60s to
lower 70s NW to SE.

The main mid/upper trough and associated lift/convergence is forecast
with high confidence to arrive late evening from the NW. Showers are
expected between 1100 PM and 300 AM in the NW, spreading east and
affecting the rest of the region between midnight and 600 AM. Gusty
winds out ahead of the line of showers from the SW at 15-25 mph will
gradually decrease with the passage of the line of showers, shifting
to the West at 10 mph overnight. Temperatures will remain up most of
the night with pre-frontal cold front warming conditions expected to
linger, especially given the slow front and extensive
cloudiness/mixing. Lows may cool briefly into the 40s in the NW, but
50s to 60 expected elsewhere and down east.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM Friday...

Longer range forecast looking on track. A cold front will move east
of the area early Sunday morning. Gradient between the parent low
over Quebec and high pressure over lower Mississippi valley Sunday
will lead to northwesterly surface winds gusting to 15-20 kts.
Temperatures during this time frame should top out in the mid 50s
with low temperatures near or slightly below freezing. A warming
trend will begin on Tuesday as high pressure moves offshore and an
upper level trough sits to the west of the region.

On Wednesday the upper trough will pass mainly north of the area.
With very limited moisture in place do not believe there will be
much if any precip in the area.  A dry cold front will move through
Wednesday night bringing in a cooler airmass for the end of the work
week. For Friday, low pressure will move out of the Gulf of Mexico
and across the Florida peninsula spreading some rain northward into
eastern and southern sections of our area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday through Tuesday/...
As of 1244 PM Friday...

Confidence is high in predominantly VFR conditions across central NC
over the next 24 hours.

Looking beyond 18z Sat: VFR CIGS/VSBYS will hold through 00z/Sunday,
with increasing and thickening mid clouds late day into the evening.
Surface winds from the SW will strengthen after daybreak Saturday,
to sustained 15-20 kts gusting occasionally to around 25 kts through
the afternoon and evening.

A short 3-4 hour period of MVFR CIGS/VSBYS with showers is expected
to spread west to east across central NC between 00z/10z Saturday
evening and night as a cold front crosses the area, resulting in a
shift of winds from SW to W Sat night.

VFR conditions are expected starting Sun morning as high pressure
returns, lasting through Tue.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...Ellis/Franklin
AVIATION...Badgett/Hartfield



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