Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 241743
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM SUNDAY...

THROUGH 12Z MON...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES (NEAR
STEAMBOAT SPRINGS CO AT 12Z) WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL TX TO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND A SECOND
WAVE (POTENT/COMPACT UPPER LOW) PROGRESSES RAPIDLY EAST FROM
SOUTHERN CA TO WESTERN TX. FORCING ASSOC/W THE AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURES WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION /LATENT HEAT RELEASE/
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MS RIVER VALLEY...AMPLIFYING THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS. ACCORDINGLY...THE PRONOUNCED SFC RIDGE EXTENDING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN
PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES /DRY
CONDITIONS/ AND A CONTINUED WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM SUNDAY...

THE PRONOUNCED SFC RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST
WILL PERSIST MON/MON NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS 12Z MON...SHIFTS SLOWLY
EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY 12Z TUE. AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW /AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION/ WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH A DRY/STABLE/
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NC. EXPECT DRY AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS MON
NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WARMEST IN THE SANDHILLS AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT WHERE STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY SUNRISE TUE
MORNING. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...

THE MID/UPR RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG OR JUST E OF THE SE
COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE AT THE SFC AND IN THE BL...LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DUE TO THE RIDGE TO OUR E AND THE
TROUGH OVER THE OH/MISS VALLEY REGIONS BOTH GRADUALLY MOVING E. WITH
THE MOISTURE PLUME TO OUR W GRADUALLY INCREASING AND SHIFTING E...
THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL ISOLD-TO-SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM W TO E DURING THIS TIME. ON TUESDAY...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SUCH ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF
OUR CWA...AND ACROSS THE WRN 2/3 OF OUR CWA ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...THE REMNANTS OF AN UPPER S/W TROUGH WILL BE STALLED
ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE PLUME BY
THEN WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND UP INTO VA. THIS
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A DECENT CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON/
EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC. FRIDAY...THE RIDGE WILL
ATTEMPT TO RE-ESTABLISH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...AND MAY HELP TO PUSH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS  FARTHER INLAND.

NEXT WEEKEND...LATEST GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
AND STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH. THE ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER...KEEPING THE RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR
NOW WILL HOLD POPS CLOSE TO CLIMO.

AS FOR TEMPS...WITH THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDING AND SUBSEQUENT LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES GRADUALLY INCREASING DURING THIS TIME...NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS EARLY IN LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES FOR LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM SUNDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS AND
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. CHANCES FOR
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS (MVFR/IFR CEILINGS) AND ISOLD/SCT
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL INCREASE TUE-THU AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ADVECTS AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO THE CAROLINAS. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...VINCENT



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