Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 030315
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
810 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...

MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE RAIN/TSTM COVERAGE THIS
EVENING IN THE I-80 CORRIDOR. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND EARLIER HRRR
RUNS, LARGE MASS OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W/SW FROM
LOVELOCK/FERNLEY INTO THE SIERRA FRONT AND POSSIBLY THE TAHOE
BASIN. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING. ANOTHER SET OF
STORMS OVER MINERAL COUNTY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MOVEMENT TO THE NW.
THIS MAY END UP PROVIDING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO THE WASHINGTON FIRE
BURN SCAR AREA OVERNIGHT.

WE COULD SEE SOME POCKETS OF FOG TOMORROW MORNING IN THE FAVORED
VALLEY AREAS, SUCH AS TRUCKEE, GIVEN EARLIER AND ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL. REST OF THE FORECAST IS UNCHANGED. CS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY SOME
COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. LOCAL FLASH FLOODING, ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
TO IMPACT THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. ABUNDANT MOISTURE, STRONG INSTABILITY AND MULTIPLE UPPER
LEVELS WAVES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE GOING TO CREATE SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST THREAT
WILL BE FROM 2PM TO 9PM EACH AFTERNOON. IF YOU ARE GOING TO BE
OUTDOORS THIS WEEKEND, HAVE A THUNDERSTORM PLAN IN PLACE.

TODAY...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AGAIN FORMED BY NOON OVER THE SIERRA AND IN SE
CHURCHILL COUNTY. GOOD CLEARING THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED FOR
STRONG HEATING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL CREATE SOME
ADDITIONAL FORCING NEAR PEAK HEATING HOURS. SOME WIND SHEAR ALOFT
TODAY COULD CREATE SOME STRONGER, LONGER-LIVED STORMS. MANY STORMS
IN WESTERN NEVADA ARE MOVING QUICKER TODAY, BUT STORMS IN THE
SIERRA ARE ALREADY BEGIN TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. WHILE SOME
STORMS ARE MOVING A BIT FASTER TODAY, TRAINING, INTERACTION WITH
OUTFLOWS, AND TERRAIN WILL STILL CREATE AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT.

FRIDAY...

GOOD CLEARINGS IS AGAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. STORM EVOLUTION
SHOULD BE A BIT DIFFERENT ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES STRONGER, MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL AND MORE SSW. IN ADDITION A
ZEPHYR WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL CREATE ANOTHER MODE
OF FORCING IN FAR WESTERN NEVADA.

SATURDAY...

SATURDAY COULD HAVE THE STRONGEST STORMS OF THE WEEK. PWATS BY
THEN ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER AN INCH FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
MOISTURE THIS HIGH CAN LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING, BUT ALSO
HAS THE POSSIBILITY TO CLOUD OVER EARLY IN THE DAY DAMPING HEAT
DRIVEN INSTABILITY. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE THE STRONGEST
ON SATURDAY AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVES ARE FORECAST AS WELL.

SUNDAY...

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH THE FOCUS
PRIMARILY OVER THE SIERRA FROM MONO THROUGH LASSEN COUNTIES.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE SEEMS TO BE LOWER CHANCES NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80 FROM NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL NEVADA.
STILL ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS CONSIDERING THE DRIER SURFACE PROFILES. THOSE
IN THE SIERRA WILL SEE SOME FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WASHINGTON FIRE BURN SCAR AS SOME CELLS MAY TRAIN. TEMPERATURES
TREND COOLER AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEASTERN
NEVADA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. FLOW BECOMES
MUCH DRIER OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER NEUTRAL
PRESSURE ADVECTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE OFF IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MUCH DRIER MID
LEVEL CHARACTERISTICS. THIS POINTS TO STRONG OUTFLOWS BEING THE
PREDOMINANT THREAT AS WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PROGRESSIVE STORM
MOTIONS. AFTERNOON ZEPHYRS SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF
THE SIERRA INTO WESTERN NEVADA.

OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS
AROUND 90 IN WESTERN NEVADA AND AROUND 80 IN THE SIERRA. ZEPHYR
WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED AS THE BACKGROUND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ADDS TO THE ZEPHYR WINDS. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSRA TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
TSRA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I-80 TODAY FM 20-04Z. CHANCE FOR IMPACT
40 PCT AT KMMH...30 PCT AT KTRK/KTVL/KRNO/KCXP/KNFL AND 20-25 PCT
ELSEWHERE. MAIN THREATS WILL BE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 45
KTS...SMALL HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
OUTSIDE OF STORMS.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SMALL HAIL
WITH DRIER MID-LEVELS. MOISTURE INCREASES SAT WITH SCT-NUMEROUS
STORMS DEPENDING ON DAYTIME CLOUD COVER. MARGINALLY DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING. WALLMANN/BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



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