Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
000
FXUS65 KREV 250959
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
259 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY, BRINGING
A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
EARLY SUNDAY WITH MILDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD-FRONTAL RAIN BAND ALONG THE NORTHERN
CA COAST THIS MORNING, MOVING EAST AS EXPECTED. AS SUCH, THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE EAST OF THE
SIERRA BY NOON AND INTO EASTERN NV THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTH
WIND GUSTS ARE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS SIERRA RIDGES AND HAVE
ALREADY SURFACED IN SOME SIERRA VALLEYS. ELSEWHERE. A SUDDEN ONSET
OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL SURFACE EARLY THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW
MORNING INVERSIONS QUICKLY MIX OUT. COMMUNITIES SHOULD PREPARE
FOR GUSTS 40-55 MPH TODAY, AND UP TO 65 MPH OR HIGHER FOR WIND
PRONE LOCATIONS. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A TRAVEL HAZARD FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES, HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ON TAHOE AND
PYRAMID LAKES, AND LOW VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING DUST IN THE NV
BASIN AND RANGE. WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TODAY FOR EASTERN
SIERRA AND WESTERN NV ZONES.

COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND
FALLING APART AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND WESTERN
NV. HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT THE FRONTAL BAND
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION TO SIERRA VALLEYS, BUT WITH
PRECIPITATION RATES DROPPING OFF QUICKLY EAST OF THE CREST. STORM
TOTALS THROUGH TONIGHT COULD REACH AROUND 0.75 INCHES NEAR THE
CREST IN PLUMAS AND LASSEN COUNTIES BUT WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY
WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN WESTERN NV VALLEYS.
SNOW LEVELS CURRENTLY AT 8000-9000 FEET WILL LOWER TO 7000-7500
FEET TONIGHT. HOWEVER, BY THE TIME SNOW LEVELS DROP BELOW 8000 FEET
TONIGHT, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE DIMINISHED BUT AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE NEAR THE NORTHERN SIERRA CREST.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GENERALLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH, WITH
DRIER MORE STABLE AIR ALOFT MOVING IN FOR AN END TO ANY SHOWERS
BY AFTERNOON. IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT (HIGH CLOUDS IN
SOME MODELS), WE COULD FINALLY SEE A WIDESPREAD FREEZE WHICH
WOULD INCLUDE THE LOWER VALLEYS. JCM

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SOME CHANGES ARE EVIDENT IN THE GUIDANCE THIS MORNING FOR NEXT WEEK,
BUT THEY ARE NOT HUGE CHANGES. THE ONE NOTICEABLE THING THIS MORNING
IS BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TROUGH FOR LATE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND. A FEW
MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE BASED ON THE LATEST THINKING.

FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED NORTH
WITH THE JET OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THEY NOW SHOW A LIMITED
EFFECT FROM THE TRAILING FRONT NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. WINDS ALOFT
ARE WEAKER THIS MORNING AND THE THREAT FOR PRECIP HAS ALSO BEEN
REDUCED AMONGST THE MODELS. SINCE THIS TREND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE MODELS, TRIMMED BACK POPS FURTHER NORTH TO NEAR THE
OREGON BORDER.

AS FOR LATE WEEK, THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO A COMPROMISE SOLUTION
FROM THE 00Z FRIDAY EC/GFS SOLUTIONS. THE EC HAS SPED UP THIS
MORNING AND THE GFS SLOWED DOWN. THE EC ENSEMBLE IS ALSO SHOWING
CONSIDERABLY LESS SPREAD THIS MORNING WITH THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY NOW
IN THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH FOR LATE WEEK AND NOT AS MUCH IN THE
TIMING. BOTH MODELS HAVE A DECENT RIDGE THURSDAY THAT MOVES EAST
SLOWLY FRIDAY. THE GFS BRINGS THE NEXT TROUGH IN FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE EC WAITS UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EC ENSEMBLE REPRESENTS A GOOD
COMPROMISE SO HELD OFF ANY CHANCE POPS UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
WHILE THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY, IT IS LESS THAN
YESTERDAY AND CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THE 7-8 DAY PERIOD.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES, THEY WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
BY MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN WESTERN NEVADA AND LOW 60S IN
SIERRA VALLEYS. TEMPS WILL COOL FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH MOVES
IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. FOR MAIN TERMINALS IN SIERRA/EXTREME WESTERN NEVADA,
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THROUGH 21Z WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 40 KTS.
LLWS IS LIKELY WITH MTN WAVE TURBULENCE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
FURTHER EAST NEAR HIGHWAY 95, PEAK WINDS TO BE FROM 18-00Z.

OTHER CONCERN WILL BE PRECIP WHICH WILL START IN WESTERN LASSEN
COUNTY BY 18Z AND HIT THE TAHOE BASIN AROUND 21Z. MAIN BAND WILL
ONLY LAST 2-3 HRS WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS LIKELY AND LCL IFR CONDS IN THE
SIERRA. FOR WRN NEVADA, EXPECT MAINLY VFR IN ISOLD/SCT -SHRA AT BEST.
OCNL -SHRA TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT MAINLY NORTH OF
KTRK/KRNO WITH LCL MVFR CIGS IN THE SIERRA.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS AFTER 12Z SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER
WINDS, PRIMARILY WNW WITH PEAK GUSTS 20 KTS. WALLMANN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT ON THE RIDGES AND MID SLOPES.
RH RECOVERY HAS BEEN POOR SO FAR WITH MANY LOCATIONS STILL IN THE
TEENS ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-80. AS THE COLD
FRONT NEARS, WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER WITH PEAK GUSTS TO 55 MPH
FROM THE S-SW ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA. RH WILL BE LOWEST SOUTH OF I-80
WITH MINIMUMS 10-20%. THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS ON TRACK.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SIERRA FRONT
(ZONE 450) AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RH WILL ALSO INCREASE
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL NOT WEAKEN UNTIL AFTER 00Z
FOR THE HIGHWAY 95 CORRIDOR FURTHER EAST AS THE FRONT WILL TAKE
LONGER TO GET THERE. BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT, EXPECT GOOD RH
RECOVERY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     NVZ003-005.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE
     IN NVZ002.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     NVZ453-459.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     NVZ001-004.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON NVZ450.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     CAZ070-071.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     CAZ073.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE
     IN CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.