Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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869
FXUS65 KREV 101023
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
223 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. VALLEY
INVERSIONS WILL BECOME LESS ESTABLISHED EACH DAY WITH IMPROVED
MIXING BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTHERN LASSEN AND WASHOE COUNTIES BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...

MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA TODAY. PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BLOCKING THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND KEEPING IT NORTH IN
OREGON/WASHINGTON. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER IN
THE WEST KEEPING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY. SURFACE
INVERSIONS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OVERNIGHT, BUT WILL BECOME LESS
STRONG BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR IMPROVED MIXING CONDITIONS. THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE AND
IMPROVED MIXING WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH RECORDS BY
FRIDAY. FOR EXAMPLE, THE RENO-TAHOE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT RECORD
HIGH IS 67 DEGREES FOR FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 12TH (FROM 1924, 2014, AND
2015) AND THE FORECAST HIGH IS CURRENTLY 67 DEGREES.

A WEAK COLD FRONT BRUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN CA/NV FRIDAY NIGHT
BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. KEPT IN ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN AREAS ACROSS MODOC COUNTY AND WESTERN LASSEN
AND PLUMAS COUNTIES FOR NOW. ELW

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCES A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH OF A
PORTOLA-GERLACH LINE SATURDAY FROM A SYSTEM BRUSHING ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE OVER THE WEST INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK, BUT THE PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
OVERLY AMPLIFIED WITH JET ENERGY AND MOISTURE REACHING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST. THIS MAY BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS TO THE SIERRA AND
NORTHWEST NEVADA, BUT THE MOISTURE AND FORCING IS TOO FAR NORTH FOR
ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF WARM AIR
IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOKS ARE STILL SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A MOIST
TROUGH TO REACH THE WEST COAST BY THE MIDDLE OR END OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS THE QUESTION OF HOW A NORTHERN TROUGH MAY OR MAY NOT PHASE
WITH A REMNANT CLOSED LOW AROUND 20N/130W AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS. THIS WOULD IMPACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE, LEAVING CONFIDENCE LOW. THE MAIN MESSAGE IS OVERALL MODEL
TRENDS ARE LEANING TOWARD WET WEATHER RETURNING WITH COOLER,
ALBEIT, STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
OVER THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST RIDGE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS. THIS MAY
CREATE LIGHT TURBULENCE NEAR AND ACROSS THE SIERRA.

PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND A DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD LIMIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT, BUT PATCHY, SHALLOW FZFG IS LIKELY THROUGH THE MARTIS
VALLEY, INCLUDING KTRK, THIS MORNING. THIS WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 15-
16Z. DJ


&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



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