Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 250331
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
831 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED TO MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
NOW...BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER THE FAR SRN CWA AND THE
ERN CWA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY WEAK IMPULSE
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS SEEMS TO BE
PRODUCING JUST ENOUGH MID LVL FORCING TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING
INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. WILL ADJUST THE LOCATION AND TIMING
OF CONVECTION A LITTLE FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A LITTLE CLEARING OVERNIGHT THAT SHOULD
ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP IN SOME OF THE SIERRA VALLEYS AND A FEW
VALLEY LOCATION IN FAR WESTERN NEVADA. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...

SO FAR TODAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES, WITH SHOWERS STARTING TO BUILD UP
ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AND OVER FAR WESTERN NEVADA. ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO EARLY EVENING OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA SOUTH OF SUSANVILLE TO LOVELOCK. MAIN THREATS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS TO 40 MPH.

NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY
MORNING WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
PORTOLA-LOVELOCK. FARTHER SOUTH, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE INCLUDING RENO-TAHOE, BUT WEST WINDS SHOULD KICK IN LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND FORCE CONVECTION EAST OF HIGHWAY 395 BY EARLY
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS FOR MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION, WITH
LESSER CHANCES ALONG THE SIERRA CREST DUE TO THE WEST WINDS ALOFT
AND DRIER AIR.

ONE FINAL FORECAST ISSUE THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG WITH SKIES CLEARING AT NIGHT. THE BEST CONFIDENCE IN FOG
FORMATION IS FOR THE NORTHERN SIERRA VALLEYS, THOUGH A FEW AREAS
OF FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS. BRONG

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

NO MAJOR SHIFTS FOR THE LONG TERM WHICH TRANSITIONS FROM ONE LAST
DAY OF LONGWAVE TROUGHING ON WEDNESDAY TO RIDGING THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION REMAIN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ONE LAST
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE. BEST CHANCES REMAIN
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, BUT STILL ONLY AROUND 20-30% FOR A SHOWER AND
ABOUT A 15% CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. CANNOT RULE OUT LOW CHANCES
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AT THIS TIME SO
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR NOW.

MID RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE PATTERN SHIFT TO RIDGE AS IS
TYPICAL FOR LARGE CHANGES. AS SUCH HAVE ADDED ABOUT A 15% CHANCE
OVER THE SIERRA IN MONO COUNTY ON THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCES WILL
LIKELY BE EARLY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
THROUGH THE EVENING, FLATTENING CLOUD ELEMENTS AS 500 MB TEMPS
APPROACH -10 C. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION OVER TERRAIN
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 FRIDAY, BUT THE APEX OF THE RIDGE WOULD BE OVER
THE SIERRA CAPPING CONVECTIVE POSSIBILITIES. KEPT CHANCES MINIMAL
FOR SATURDAY; WAITING FOR ANOTHER RUN OR TWO TO SEE IF THE RIDGE
SLOWS FURTHER. IF MODELS VERIFIED NOW, THERE COULD BE A FEW BUILD-
UPS SATURDAY OVER THE SIERRA AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN COOLING ALOFT
WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MOST NOTABLE IMPACT FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO AT LEAST THE MID 80S WITH
INDICATIONS FOR SATURDAY THAT 90S ARE POSSIBLE FOR TYPICALLY WARMER
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 95. AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY COOL A FEW DEGREES BACK INTO THE MID 80S. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH MODELS AS THEY TYPICALLY MOVE MAJOR LONGWAVE FEATURES TOO
QUICKLY IN THE 6-14 DAY RANGE. BOYD

AVIATION...

ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR TERMINALS OCCURRING AT KTRK, KTVL, KNFL, AND KLOL. THESE
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLEAR.

FOG FORMATION IS MOST LIKELY IN SIERRA VALLEYS, BUT ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION AND HIGH SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR MANY WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS TO HAVE SOME FOG
COVERAGE. THIS INCLUDES SIERRA FRONT LOCATIONS AND AREAS AROUND
THE CARSON SINK. EFFECTIVELY ALL TERMINALS COULD SEE SOME FOG
INCLUDING KNFL, KLOL, AND KMMH.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH ON MEMORIAL DAY WITH BETTER
CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES
DIMINISH FURTHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY. CONTINUED CHANCES OF MORNING FOG CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH COVERAGE DECREASING A LITTLE EACH NIGHT. BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)


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