Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 230126 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
626 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
CHOPPY LAKE WATERS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE RAPIDLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND RELAXING OF THERMAL
GRADIENT. OTHERWISE, ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN
AND RANGE AND AREAS NORTH OF I-80. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION AND
THUS NO IMPACT. ACTIVITY IS ALSO FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. ANOTHER UPDATE
WILL BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING TO FOLLOW DIMINISHING WIND
TRENDS. HOHMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE A COLDER AND WETTER STORM ARRIVES
FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM...

TROUGH AXIS IS STARTING TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA DUE TO UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
UNDERNEATH THE COLD AIR ALOFT. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY HAVE
CONVECTIVE SNOW PELLETS, BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
FROM THESE SHOWERS.

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING HAS COOLED
TEMPERATURES 20-25 DEGREES COLDER THAN WHERE WE WERE YESTERDAY AT
THIS TIME. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE THE GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. LAKE
WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR TAHOE AND PYRAMID LAKES UNTIL 6
PM THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE
WEST COAST, SHIFTING THE JET AND PRECIPITATION NORTH INTO THE PAC
NW. COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT THAT FAR FROM
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT WITH THE RECENT WARM TEMPERATURES,
THIS WILL COME AS A SURPRISE FOR MANY PEOPLE. PEOPLE SHOULD TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT SENSITIVE PLANTS FROM FREEZE DAMAGE,
ESPECIALLY IN COLDER VALLEYS OF WESTERN NEVADA AND THE EASTERN
SIERRA WHERE THEY COULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT, AS
WE START TO GET INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST FOR FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW RETURN AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO PUSH
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, BUT THE HEAVIER PRECIP ISN`T EXPECTED
UNTIL FRIDAY. HOON

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON BRINGING IN A COLD
SYSTEM WITH CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN. FEW CHANGES
MADE WITH FRIDAY`S SYSTEM WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THIS
AFTERNOON`S MODEL RUNS. DID TREND DOWN SNOW LEVELS A BIT WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES COOLING BETWEEN -8 TO -10C BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
OVERALL LOOKING FOR THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO USHER IN PRECIPITATION
INTO THE SIERRA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS POSITIONED
AROUND 6500-7000 FEET. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS
HIGHER SIERRA PASSES EARLY IN THE MORNING THEN POSSIBLY DOWN TO
5500-6000 FEET AS THE SNOW LEVELS LOWER THROUGH THE DAY.

THE BEST PROSPECTS FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE SIERRA
WITH ROUGHLY ABOUT 0.75-1.0" OF LIQUID POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST.
CONFIDENCE IN THE QPF IS LOWER END AS INCREASED INSTABILITY FROM THE
COLD CORE OF THE LOW WILL LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN FORCING. THE ENHANCED INSTABILITY WILL ALSO
SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WITH VALLEY RAIN EXPECTED AND A
RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS FOOTHILL AREAS. SHOWERS DIMINISH
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY WITH LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND LOW TO MID
40S ACROSS SIERRA VALLEYS. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRUSH
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND LOW CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE SIERRA IS EXPECTED.

HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
IN ESTABLISHING A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRIER
WEATHER AND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WITH 60S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. FUENTES

AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THRU 03Z IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH NO RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. GUSTY
WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME
HEATING ABATES. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH LIGHTER WINDS NEAR 10KTS. FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






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