462
FXUS63 KSGF 070944
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
444 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms expected on Wednesday, with severe
  potential from early morning through the evening. Exact
  hazards remains in question, but very large hail, damaging,
  and tornadoes are possible. SPC has a hatched Enhanced Risk
  (3/5) for most of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

With storms exiting the area this morning and no hazardous
weather expected for the rest of today through at least most of
tonight, attention is on severe chances for Wednesday with the
SPC hatched Enhanced day 2 outlook.

Larger pattern: The overall setup is that a shortwave will move
northwest of the area tonight into Wednesday, leading to a
surface low developing over Oklahoma tonight then shifting
through the western CWA Wednesday morning and into northern
Missouri by Wednesday evening. This is farther south than models
showed 24 hours ago, which results in some important changes.
Notably that shear profiles are more supportive of a tornado
threat, but that will be highly dependent on convective
evolution through the day.

Mesoscale: A 40-60 kt LLJ will shift east into the southwestern
CWA by sunrise Wednesday morning as a warm front lifts into the
area. The LLJ will weaken as it slowly shifts east through the
day, but strong wind fields associated with the mid-level jet
will keep shear strong through the day. The warm front will
shift north through the area with a cold front then pushing in
from the west in the afternoon and evening. Models show
instability increasing very quickly behind the warm front as
moisture surges into the area and steep mid-level lapse rates
evolve. By mid to late morning, guidance shows 2,000-3,000 J/kg
of MLCAPE with little CIN. For the afternoon, very high
instability levels of 2,500-3,500 J/kg (MLCAPE), with some
guidance pointing to over 4,000 J/kg. Toughest part of this
forecast revolves around uncertainty with storm evolution and
resulting unknowns with storm mode and mesoscale changes. Think
storms will develop in the morning over the west and may transit
east across the area into the afternoon. Greatest concerns with
these would be along the warm front where a tornado threat would
be higher. Additional storms may form along the cold front in
the afternoon and evening, with a very large hail risk.
Depending on storm mode and environment, hail up to the size of
baseballs could be possible, but more details are needing to be
ironed out on that threat. Damaging winds up to 70 mph are
possible with any upscale growth in the afternoon and evening.
Overall a pretty complex forecast.

Flooding will also be a concern on Wednesday where training
convection occurs, but the location of that threat is unknown at
this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Weather is relatively quiet Thursday through Monday with little
to no chances for precip. Temperatures look to be cooler, but
near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 532 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Gusty southeasterly winds will continue this evening, some MVFR
ceilings could occur, but mainly VFR conditions will occur. A
few isolated showers and maybe a thunderstorms may be possible
this evening but most locations will remain dry through 9PM.

Storms have developed across central Oklahoma and Kansas early
this evening. These storms will continue to move east and
developing into a line or lines of storms. This activity will
move into the area western portions of the area late this
evening and through the rest of the area overnight. These storms
will have the potential for damaging winds, frequent lightning
and brief heavy rain. IFR to LIFR conditions will occur with the
storms. The storms will move east from west to east overnight
into early Tuesday morning. Winds will turn to more
southwesterly behind the storms and remain gusty on Tuesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Wise