Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 300525
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1225 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

After a lull in the precipitation this afternoon expect showers
and thunderstorms to overspread the region from late this
afternoon into this evening and overnight. Convection across the
central and southern Plains will continue to increase and spread
east and northeast as a shortwave trough lifts northeast. In
addition a surface warm front will lift north from the Red River
Valley as surface cyclogenesis takes place over the Plains.
Strengthening synoptic scale lift within increasingly diffluent
flow aloft will support widespread showers and scattered to
numerous thunderstorms tonight.

The potential for severe storms is conditional based on the
degree of instability that develops. Models suggest most unstable
CAPE up to near 1000 J/KG nosing into extreme southeastern Kansas
and far southwestern Missouri as the evening progresses while the
low levels continue to moisten. Given the strong lift and deep
layer shear up to 50 kts strong if not locally severe convection is
not out of the question.

Expect tonight`s convection to push off to the east late tonight
and early Saturday as the shortwave swings northeast.

The primary upper level low will migrate eastward into the central
Plains Saturday while an associated cold front pushes east into
the Ozarks during the day. Forcing along this front coupled with
ample instability and deep layer shear will support the potential
for strong to severe storms mainly east of highway 65 during the
afternoon into the early evening. However deep mean layer
moisture looks to decrease during the day as a mid level dry slot
moses eastward. This could limit the development or least coverage
of convection Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

An extended period of relatively quiet weather will unfold as we
head into next week. Variable cloud cover and perhaps a few light
showers may linger Sunday and Monday as another system tracks to
our south. Otherwise models prog the evolution of a more
northwesterly flow aloft as the week progresses. Temperatures
will be near to slightly below seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms will end overnight
across southern Missouri although scattered activity will remain
possible through dawn. MVFR and localized IFR can be expected
with this activity. A brief improvement to VFR is then expected
for a few hours behind the back edge of the rain before MVFR and
IFR move back in during the predawn hours.

Restricted flight conditions will then continue into early
Saturday morning before conditions begin to improve from mid to
late morning. VFR is expected to return by midday. Some re-
development of thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon,
however we believe that this will occur just east of the
Springfield and Branson aerodromes.

Easterly winds tonight will slowly veer around to the southwest by
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Schaumann



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