Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 110827
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
227 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2016

Extensive cloud cover and gusty south to southeast winds will
continue through much of the day today across the area. Better low
level moisture will move into the area from the south later this
morning, with areas of drizzle developing in response. Right now
it looks like temperatures will be above freezing across the
entire area before precipitation begins, so no wintry impacts are
expected.  Precipitation intensity should gradually increase
during the late morning into the afternoon hours as an upper level
wave and associated surface front approach the area. Light rain is
then expected this afternoon and evening, especially east of
Highway 65. Rainfall amounts are expected to be a tenth of an inch
or less.

Colder air will briefly return to the area behind the cold front
tonight, with overnight lows dropping into the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 225 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2016

Despite the frontal passage, temperatures on Monday will warm
back into the mid to upper 40s with a fair amount of sun.

A stronger frontal passage is then expected during the day
Tuesday, which will likely result in a significant gradient in
temps from north to south across the area (and thus, considerable
bust potential). It`s also plausible that some areas could see
falling temperatures during the daytime hours Tuesday as the
colder air builds in. At this point, this frontal passage looks to
be dry.

Strong high pressure will then build into the area behind the
front, setting the stage for a stretch of below average
temperatures from Tuesday night through Thursday night. Highs
during this time look to be around freezing, with lows in the
teens and low 20s.

The latter portion of the forecast continues to look interesting
this morning, with tremendous uncertainty given wholesale run to
run and model to model changes/differences. There seems to be
decent agreement in some sort of system swinging across the
Midwest late in the workweek or early next weekend; however, the
strength and track remain very much in question. These differences
will have considerable impact on temperatures and precipitation
type, amount, and any sort of impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1110 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

Pilots can expect a gradual deterioration in flight conditions
tonight into Sunday. Ceilings will lower with MVFR conditions
becoming prevalent by Sunday morning. Areas of light rain and
drizzle along with patchy fog will develop Sunday as the low
levels of the atmosphere saturate and a front moves across the
area. IFR ceilings may develop Sunday afternoon in association
with this frontal passage.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Foster


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