Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 190741

241 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

An upper level ridge is currently over the region early this
morning and will remain over the area into Sunday. This upper level
ridge is between an upper level low across the Gulf Coast states
and an upper level low across the southwestern U.S. Little change
will occur in this upper level pattern today into early Sunday.
Warm conditions can be expected today and Sunday as highs top out
in the middle to upper 70s both afternoons. Southerly winds will
be a little stronger with gusts over 20 mph expected both days.
Mostly sunny skies will occur today.

The upper level low over the southwestern U.S. will start tracking
to the northeast into the southern plains Sunday. The low will
shear and open as it lifts to the northeast. Precipitation will
not spread into the area during the afternoon on Sunday, but
clouds will begin to increase from west to east during the day on

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

The upper level trough will continue to track to the northeast
through the region Sunday night into Monday. As the upper level
trough moves northeast towards the region, another upper level
trough will track across the northern plains and will send a cold
front to the south. The cold front will sag into the area and the
weakening upper level will lift into the area and interact with
the front to bring showers to the area Sunday evening into Monday
evening. The southerly winds that occur today and Sunday will bring
increasing moisture into the region, resulting in the potential
for some thunderstorms with the shower activity Sunday night into
Monday. Instability will increase enough for thunderstorm
development, but will remain too weak for any severe potential.

The rain will move out of the area Monday night. Slightly cooler
conditions will occur on Monday and Tuesday behind this system,
but will remain near normal for this time of year as highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s and lows in the mid to upper 40s occur.

An upper level ridge will build back over the region during the
middle of the week with above normal temperatures expected. Highs
may approach the 80 degree mark across the western portions of the
forecast area.

A stronger storm system will then track across the Dakotas into the
great lakes region some time from Thursday into Friday. Medium
range models continue to differ on the timing of this event and
the exact track. A cold front will track across the region during
this time, being the focus for shower and thunderstorm
development, we just need to pin point the exact timing and track
of this system to hammer out the details.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. A sfc
ridge will remaining place from the Great Lakes to east TX through
the taf period.




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