Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 161748
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1148 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 152 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

A large area of rain will continue to lift north into the region
early this morning. Through 1 AM, most of the rain has been
limited to areas west of Highway 65; this will gradually change
over time as a larger shield of rain lifts north from Arkansas.
Patchy dense fog will also continue into this morning, especially
where widespread rain is not occurring. We will likely expand the
Advisory north into Mid-Missouri for a time this morning given
falling visibilities between I-44 and the Missouri River. Once the
more widespread rain begins later this morning, however,
visibilities should improve.

This rain is associated with a northward-lifting warm front, so
despite the widespread precipitation and cloud cover,
temperatures are expected to warm appreciably through the rest of
the pre-dawn hours and into the day today. Highs should reach the
upper 50s and low 60s, with the warmest readings over southwestern
Missouri.

In addition to the rain, a few thunderstorms will also be
possible. Overall coverage will be rather limited, with the best
relative chances over south central Missouri this afternoon.
Severe weather is not expected.

A cold front will sweep across the area tonight as low pressure
lifts north toward the Great Lakes, finally ending the persistent
rainfall across the region. Lows tonight are expected to fall into
the mid to upper 30s behind the front.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 152 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

After the warmer day today, temperatures will return to more
seasonable levels for Tuesday, with highs in the 40s. We will need
to watch for fog Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, as skies
finally begin to clear and high pressure moves overhead, resulting
in light and variable winds for a time.

The area looks to be on the periphery of upper level ridging
Wednesday, which will help boot temperatures into the 50s, with
at least some sunshine. Additional rain chances may develop
Wednesday night through early Friday, as an upper level low
pivots east over the Plains.

Forecast confidence going into the weekend is low at this point,
with a rather messy upper level pattern expected over the CONUS.
Several small shortwaves or closed upper level lows are forecast
to be embedded within larger-scale troughing over the western and
central US, and depending on timing and location of these
features, rain chances may well return to the area over the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

An upper level low pressure will continue to bring flight category
restrictions to southern Missouri through Tuesday morning. IFR
conditions are generally expected around Springfield and Branson,
however a period of MVFR will be possible from late this afternoon
into this evening. Joplin will mainly see MVFR into this evening
before IFR develops later tonight.

There will also be scattered rain showers this afternoon with a
slight chance for a thunderstorm around Branson and Springfield.
We felt that the probability for a thunderstorm was too low to
include in the TAFs at this time.

Surface winds will remain brisk out of the south to southwest this
afternoon before veering around to the west tonight and becoming
lighter.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann


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