Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 201150

650 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Gathering showers were concentrated the most in southwest Missouri
out toward McDonald County, as an upper level disturbance approached.

Robust updrafts are not anticipated, therefore we decided leave
out any mention of thunder. The shower activity could continue into
your morning commute mainly south of Highway 60.  Nearly all shower
activity will dissipate by the afternoon period. Highs today will
likely warm into the 70s with mostly sunny skies. Water Vapor was
showing dry air spreading in, increasing sunshine this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

We have been monitoring a pattern conducive for mild and dry weather
in our region for the next several days, as an upper level ridge
navigates over the nations mid section through Wednesday.

Wednesday night into Thursday will be our next decent shot for showers
or maybe even some isolated thunderstorms. Both the GFS and the ECMWF
ramp up QPF amounts over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Moisture
levels will be low amongst the Ozarks air mass due to north winds
directed across the Gulf of Mexico, mitigating deep moisture return.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will be short lived Thursday, moving
east of the region by Thursday night. Yet another anomalous ridge
recharges across the desert southwest, and expands over the Ozarks
into the upcoming weekend. This pattern will bring warm weather
eastward over much of the nation`s mid section. Readings in the
seventies will be well above average for the last week of October.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: An upper level disturbance and
approaching sfc trough have kicked off a few light showers along
with vfr or high end mvfr ceilings. This will continue over the
next few hours with the better chances for -shra at KJLN and KBBG.
Not expected much, if any, impact on visibility with rain. Conditions
will clear north to south 15z-21z. Light winds with a sfc ridge
of high pressure will occur tonight. Some guidance (GFS MOS) is
showing some chances for shallow dense fog toward the end of the
taf period. SREF and NAM showing chances slim at best. With drier
air working it`s way in, believe any fog will patchy and may favor
low terrain and lakes. Will watch fcst trends, particularly at KBBG,
but will not include fog in the tafs for now.




LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.