Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 291201
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
401 AM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES
AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH...BETWEEN 6500 AND 7000 FEET. LIGHT
RAIN WILL END SATURDAY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE NORTH ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WAVE HAS MOISTURE
ADVECTING FROM THE TROPICS AND BY FRIDAY MORNING THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WILL BE NEARLY SATURATED BUT WITH SOME DRY AIR REMAINING IN
PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS...IT MAY TAKE AWHILE FOR RAIN TO MAKE IT
TO THE GROUND. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE SHEERING OUT
INITIALLY BUT IS THEN FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND INTO ARIZONA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE VALLEYS. NONETHELESS WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ADVECTION EVENTUALLY MAKING IT TO OUR EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA...WE HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND VERY HIGH ELEVATION SNOW (SNOW LEVELS
AROUND 7000 FEET OR HIGHER AT TIMES) DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SOME
UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS
COULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION IN THOSE REGIONS FRIDAY ALONG WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER REACHING NEARLY 1 INCH AT THAT TIME. A FEW
INCHES OF NEW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT EXCEPT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN
AND OFFSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH NOT
LIKELY TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...AND THEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT BASIN...BRINGING A RENEWED OFFSHORE
FLOW...MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO OUR REGION INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
291000Z...GENEROUS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AOA 10000 FEET MSL. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST AND MOVE LOCALLY INLAND AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING WITH BASES
AROUND 1500 FEET MSL. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY THIS
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
200 AM....NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JMB
AVIATION/MARINE...MM






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