Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 282043
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
140 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING
SUNDAY AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA...BUT IT WILL STILL BE VERY
WARM IN THE INLAND AREAS. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL BRING LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG BACK TO THE COASTAL ZONES TONIGHT.
NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE IN MOST AREAS. STORMS PASSING
BY TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

1 PM COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S...WHICH WAS 5-15 DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS WAS DUE TO
THE 500 FOOT DEEP MARINE LAYER THAT ROLLED INLAND LAST NIGHT. THERE
WAS NOT NEARLY THE SAME AMT OF COOLING IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY 1 TO 7
DEGREES LOWER...WHERE TEMPERATURES TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 80S.
MOUNTAIN AND DESERT TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY.

SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WERE ALREADY RETURNING TO THE BEACHES THIS
AFTERNOON. A SHALLOW 500 FOOT DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE COASTAL ZONES. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH TONIGHT...PERHAPS DEEPEN A COUPLE HUNDRED
FEET WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...SO AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE
MOST LIKELY IN THE COASTAL ZONES JUST INLAND FROM THE BEACHES...THE
COASTAL MESAS AND THE FAR WESTERN SAN DIEGO VALLEYS. ON SUNDAY THE
LOWER HEIGHTS...SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MINOR COOLING IN THE VALLEY...MTN AND DESERT ZONES.

THE TROUGH PROGRESSION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HAS SLOWED AND IT NOW
LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK
RIDGING TUESDAY WILL BRING MINOR WARMING AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW. ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND JET
STREAM DIPPING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL BRING FURTHER
COOLING TO SO-CAL ALONG WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS.

THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS
FORECASTS A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN FRIDAY TO TRANSITION INTO A DEEP WEST
COAST TROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THAT WILL EXTEND ALL THE WAY DOWN
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE ECMWF HAS A SIMILAR TROUGH PATTERN
OVER THE WEST COAST...BUT IT KEEPS THE JET STREAM AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FARTHER NORTH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS DEVELOPING
PATTERN WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IN THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

282000Z...COASTAL AREAS...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE HOVERING JUST
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY AFFECT SOME BEACHES BRIEFLY.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFT 29/00Z...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
REDEVELOP AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND PUSH 5 TO 10 SM INLAND
OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT WITH VIS 1-3 SM WHERE
CLOUDS INTERSECT TERRAIN. LOCAL DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL MESAS...INCL KCRQ. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG EXPECTED TO CLEAR OFF THE COAST 29/15-17Z.

VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

100 PM...PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...

100 PM...A SOUTH SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD WILL CREATE STRONG RIP AND
LONGSHORE CURRENTS THIS WEEKEND...AS WELL AS ELEVATED SURF ALONG
SOUTH-FACING BEACHES. FOR DETAILS SEE THE BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...23


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