Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 281625
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
925 AM PDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY, MOST LIKELY OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WILL
DECREASE TODAY. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR
AND WARMER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AND TUESDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVED INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT GENERATING
SHOWERS OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY IN THE MOUNTAINS...NORTHERN
INLAND EMPIRE...AND THE HIGH DESERT...INCLUDING SOME SIGNIFICANT
SHOWERS WITH A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES. AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...THROUGH A FEW LOCATIONS SAW UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS RESULTED IN
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN THE BIG BEAR AREA OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT IF ANY THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND
REMAIN ABOVE 6500 FEET. SAN DIEGO COUNTY IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY
SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL KEEP MOSTLY
INLAND AS THEY TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AFFECTING
MOSTLY THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. THERE IS ALSO ENOUGH
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON TO JUSTIFY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE HELD THEIR OWN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL MOUNTAIN AND DESERT SLOPE STATIONS
GUSTING OVER 45 MPH. THE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DROP OFF SLIGHTLY
AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO...BUT REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON MOSTLY BELOW ADVISORY STRENGTH.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE FAIR AND COOL WITH A DEEP MARINE LAYER
ENHANCED BY COASTAL EDDY AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE COASTAL BASIN DURING
THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DROPS DOWN
FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ONE HAS LIMITED MOISTURE
LIKE OUR CURRENT SYSTEM WITH MANY SIMILARITIES IN THE PRECIP CHANCE,
AMOUNT, AND DISTRIBUTION. MOST PLACES WILL RECORD NONE THOUGH SOME
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN. THERE IS ALSO
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING ADVISORY
STRENGTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OUT ON SUNDAY
WITH DECREASING WINDS AND DRYING.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE OCEAN. THAT WILL BRING MUCH WARMER
WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS. CONFIDENCE IS STILL SOMEWHAT
LOW...THOUGH INCREASING...THAT THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GRAB SOME
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH DUE TO A MORE OVER-WATER TRAJECTORY AND
BRING SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AROUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
281525Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN-OVC LOW CLOUDS BASED 2000-3000 FEET MSL
WITH MERGING LAYERS ABOVE TO NEAR 8000 FEET MSL. LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TIL 28/21Z. AFTER 28/21Z SCT CLOUDS 2000-3000 FT MSL
MOST AREAS BECOMING BKN-OVC AFTER 29/0400Z WITH TOPS 5000 FEET MSL.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...BKN-OVC CLOUDS BASED 3000 FEET MSL MERGING
WITH HIGHER LAYERS AND TOPS AROUND 8000 FEET MSL AND
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. SCT LIGHT SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSHOWERS. WEST WINDS 20-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT
WITH STRONG UP AND DOWNDRAFTS WITH WIND SHEAR AND
ROTORS POSSIBLE DESERT SLOPES.

&&

.MARINE...
820 AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OUTER WATERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING THEN DECREASING. A WESTERLY 10-SECOND SWELL AND
SHORT 6 SECOND PERIOD FOR COMBINED SEAS 10-12 FEET OUTER WATERS
AND 7-9 FEET INNER WATERS THIS MORNING THEN SLOWLY DECREASING.
WEAKER WINDS AND COASTAL EDDY CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.BEACHES...
820 AM...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND A MIXED SHORT-PERIOD SWELL
FOR CHOPPY SURF 3-5 FEET THIS MORNING. A BUILDING SOUTH SWELL
WILL PRODUCE ABOVE AVERAGE 3-5 FOOT SURF SOUTH FACING BEACHES
THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME 6 FOOT SETS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
     GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WATERS FROM
     SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM
     OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR WATERS FROM SAN
     MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT
     INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT
     TO 30 NM.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...TS
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SMALL


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