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000
FXUS66 KSGX 260429
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BRING COOLER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DEEP THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND BE DEEP
ENOUGH ON TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

LOWER HEIGHTS WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST KEPT
TEMPERATURES 1-4 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE TODAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS WAVE
PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE WEST. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO
THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT BUT COVERAGE MAY NOT BE UNIFORM SINCE THE
INVERSION WILL BE WEAK. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MTNS
AND DESERTS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS WHEN THE ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS APPROACH DOUBLE DIGITS.

THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH HAD LOOKED SO PROMISING FOR LATE SEASON
PRECIP IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS BACKED OFF ON IT MORE SOUTHERLY
STORM TRAJECTORY. IT LONGER SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS
SOCAL NEXT TUESDAY...AND INSTEAD IT IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE
MORE NORTHERLY TRACKS OF THE GFS THE PAST FEW DAYS WHICH SLIDE THE
SHORTWAVE AND MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
THEREFORE THE PRECIP AMTS WERE TRENDED DOWNWARD. DESPITE THIS CHANGE
IN THE STORM TRACK THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPENING TO 5000 FT OR
MORE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. ALSO...THE PROXIMITY OF THE JET CORE ALONG
WITH EVER INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASES THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR WIND ADVISORIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE TROUGH SLIDES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE DEEP TROUGH REMAINS
INTACT ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS CALIFORNIA. THE TROUGH SLOWLY FILLS AND
WEAKENS THU THROUGH SUNDAY SO WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
260230Z...COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHY STRATUS...WITH BASES AROUND 2000 FT
MSL AND TOPS NEAR 3000 FT MSL...WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST THIS EVENING...THEN ALONG THE ORANGE COUNTY
COAST AND INLAND TO THE WESTERN MTN SLOPES BY MID SUN MORNING. VIS
3-5 SM BR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS BTWN 09-16 UTC
SUN MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR TOWARDS THE COAST AROUND 16-17
UTC SUN MORNING...THEN REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE SUN EVENING
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TOPS AND BASES.

MTNS/DESERTS...GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 35 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT
OVER THE DESERT MTN SLOPES AND THROUGH/EAST OF SAN GORGONIO PASS.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SUN EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES TO 7.2 FEET AND BELOW NORMAL LOW
TIDES...WITH SWINGS OF 8.9 FEET...WILL COMBINE WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SURF TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TODAY
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THE HIGHEST HIGH TIDES WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE
LATE EVENINGS AND THE LOWEST LOW TIDES WILL BE IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY...PARTLY DUE TO THE SWINGS IN THE TIDES. ALWAYS SWIM
NEAR A LIFEGUARD.

A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL CREATE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25 KTS SUN AFTN THROUGH MON MORNING...WITH GUSTS
INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS MON AFTN THROUGH WED MORNING IN THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS. COMBINED SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 5-8 FEET. CONDITIONS
MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
WINDS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUN AFTN THROUGH MON MORNING.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR THE COACHELLA VALLEY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 5
     AM WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT