Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 240827
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
327 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Surface high pressure will continue to build south today with
northeast winds around 5 to 10 knots becoming east in the
afternoon. A weakness in upper-level northwest flow aloft to allow
for scattered showers and thunderstorms across mainly east and
northeast Texas today. With weak pressure gradient aloft,
storm motion will be somewhat slow, allowing for locally heavy
rain across some locations. With enhanced cloud cover and a cooler
airmass advecting south across the region, high temperatures
today to climb into the mid to upper 80s.

What was Tropical Depression Harvey is now Tropical Storm Harvey
with wind speeds around 45 MPH. Harvey will remain the primary
factor in driving the weather conditions over the next week across
Texas and the northern gulf coast. Model trends have been very
consistent over the past several days with landfall across south
Texas late Friday evening. Harvey to remain nearly stationary
across south Texas through Tuesday morning before easing northeast
across the Texas coast. Through Tuesday, conditions across the
ArkLaTex will be characterized by mainly scattered afternoon
showers and thunderstorms along with enhanced seabreeze convection
each afternoon bringing likely pops across deep east Texas and
north Louisiana. East to northeast winds around 5 to 10 mph to
prevail through Tuesday. Rainfall totals across the region through
the weekend into early next week to average around a half an inch
to an inch with slightly higher amounts, up to 3 inches, across
deep east Texas and north Louisiana. Temperatures each day to
range from highs in the 80s to lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Remnants of Harvey to move east across the ArkLaTex on Wednesday
into Thursday of next week allowing for an additional 3 to 4
inches of rainfall across deep east Texas and north Louisiana
during this two day period. Overall rainfall totals through the
forecast period to range from around 5 to 6 inches across deep
east Texas to near 3 inches across northeast Louisiana and south
central Arkansas with lesser amounts across northeast Texas and
southeast Arkansas. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 116 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017/

UPDATE...
Add slight/chance pop to the 06-12Z timeframe.

DISCUSSION...
Some stars showing through breaks in the mostly cloudy sky with
only a few showers remaining South of I-20. HRRR shows some light
showers continuing over NE LA and spotty activity along and South
of I-20 so we have slight chance showers North of I-20 and still
chance South of I-20 through the overnight hours. No other changes
needed with a sought overall reduction of wordiness for the NOAA
WX radio. /24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1147 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017/

AVIATION...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms have dissipated
across the majority of the ARKLATEX due to loss of daytime
heating. Only area of lingering showers were noted north of kmlu
albeit, slowly decaying with time. Have therefore inserted a VCSH
at kmlu for a few hours. Computer models hint at relatively light
south-southeast winds /3-6 kts/ overnight within a moist lower
level environment. As such, could see the development of MVFR-IFR
CIGS overnight though if enough clearing occurs, MVFR fog could
become a secondary hazard. Conditions should improve to VFR by mid-late
Thursday morning, and a lingering sfc/outflow boundary coupled
with daytime heating may result in isolated to scattered
-SHRA/-TSRA, particularly near and/or south of the Interstate-20
 corridor. Thus, confidence is high enough to insert a TEMPO group
 for a -TSRA mention for klfk late Thursday aftn-early evening.
 /29/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  89  71  90  73 /  30  10  20  20
MLU  87  69  86  71 /  20  10  10  20
DEQ  84  66  85  68 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  85  67  87  69 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  86  68  87  70 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  87  72  89  73 /  40  20  30  30
GGG  87  71  89  73 /  40  20  30  20
LFK  90  74  89  75 /  40  30  30  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05/24



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