Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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047
FXUS64 KSHV 110325
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
925 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Low level warm air advection is taking place under 5kft ceilings
this evening which is resulting in a slow to nearly no fall off on
evening temperatures. Cloud cover continues to advance eastward
and were covering all but our extreme eastern parishes in
Northeast Louisiana and that is where the coldest temperatures are
at this hour. These temperatures will warm later this evening once
the cloud cover moves into these locations. Elsewhere across the
remainder of the region...expect to see steady to slowly warming
temperatures overnight and for that reason...had to rerun hourly
temp grids so that they no longer represent a true diurnal falling
trend as is always the case overnight.

Cannot rule out some very light rain or drizzle after midnight
across our western zones as this is where the best isentropic lift
will be but precip if any would be very light and could even be
drizzle. A slight adjustment to dewpoints and overnight wind grids
as well as sky grids were the only additional chances made.
Updated forecast has already been sent.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 651 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016/

AVIATION...
For the 11/00Z TAFs, VFR conditions starting out this period with
expanding stratocumulus deck which has overtaken all sites except
at MLU. Expect these ceilings to further expand/lower through the
overnight hours to around 4Kft and then drop to MVFR near sunrise
across our east Texas terminals. This trend will continue farther
east into south Arkansas and north Louisiana through the mid-late
morning hours. South winds will also begin to really increase as
deepening surface low pressure occurs out over the Plains with an
approaching cold front. Some patchy drizzle and light rain could
develop in response to the rapid surge in low level moisture, but
have held off on including any mention in the TAFs for now except
for VCSH mainly across our western sites from late morning through
the afternoon hours. Southerly winds during this timeframe will be
approaching 15 kts sustained speeds with higher gusts reaching or
exceeding 20-25 kts ahead of the cold front which will not reach
any of our sites until after this TAF period concludes at 12/00Z.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  46  66  59  66 /  10  30  40  20
MLU  37  64  59  69 /  10  10  60  50
DEQ  43  60  47  57 /  20  40  50  10
TXK  45  63  53  59 /  10  40  50  10
ELD  38  62  55  61 /  10  30  60  30
TYR  47  69  54  63 /  20  30  30  10
GGG  49  68  57  65 /  10  40  30  10
LFK  49  70  61  70 /  10  30  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

19/13



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