Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 052320
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
620 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...
VCTS CONDITIONS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS BY 06/04Z. TEMPO MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS ON MONDAY. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER WRN MISSOURI WAS DIVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. EVEN FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
WAS LIFTING NEWD INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BUT THE TROUGH AXIS
TRAILED SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE NRN COAST OF THE GULF OF MX. ASCENT
FROM THE MISSOURI SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN FOCUSED ALONG A RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ROUGHLY LOCATED FROM NEAR KADF...TO NEAR HOMER
LA...TO NEAR KAQV. COMBINED WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 3000
J/KG...NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF
THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE HIGH INSTABILITY HAS LED TO SOME
TALL STORMS AND ROBUST UPDRAFTS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES.
CONCERN EXISTS THAT BOWING SEGMENTS WILL FORM PRODUCING SEVERE
WIND GUSTS OR THAT SEVERE DOWNBURSTS WILL OCCUR AS STORM COLLAPSE
LATER THIS EVENING. CONVECTION IS GENERALLY MOVING EASTERLY BUT
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING WESTWARD SO SHWRS/TSTMS ARE
BACKBUILDING. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE DEVELOPMENT
WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE STORMS DIMINISH BUT HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE
POPS THROUGH 03Z ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.

SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AREA
WARM AND DRY FOR MONDAY. THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL SHIFT INTO THE SERN CONUS WHILE A BROAD TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER SW TX WHILE A COLD
FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS W TX NEWD INTO OK.
THESE STORMS COULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO SE OK/SW AR NORTH OF I-30
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY COULD BE A BIT
HIGHER AS THE SW TX SFC LOW EJECTS NEWD AND THE FRONT MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE. THE MODELS ARE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP DURING
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN NW OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE SERN CONUS RIDGE BEGINS TO
EXPAND BACK TO THE WEST OVER LOWER MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS. THIS WILL
RETURN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE REGION AND GENERALLY LIMIT RAIN
CHANCES TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 EACH
AFTERNOON. OVERALL..THIS FORECAST IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO
WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT RAINS BEYOND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
ALLOW SOILS TO GRADUALLY DRY AND TEMPS TO SLOWLY WARM...LIKELY
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  93  75  92 /  30  10  10  10
MLU  71  92  73  93 /  30  10  10  10
DEQ  73  90  73  89 /  30  10  10  30
TXK  74  91  74  90 /  30  10  10  20
ELD  73  92  73  92 /  30  10  10  10
TYR  75  92  75  91 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  75  93  75  92 /  30  10  10  10
LFK  77  93  75  93 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05


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