Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 250400
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1000 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
TO SKY OVERNIGHT AND TO A FEW LOW TEMPERATURES. ALSO...LOADED IN NEW
25/00Z NAM WINDS AND ADJUSTED START TIME FOR THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EL DORADO IS ALREADY AT THE FORECAST LOW AND AND OTHERS WERE NEAR
AND HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN A COUPLE OR FEW DEGREES. MANY SITES
SOUTH OF I-20 ARE CALM WITH A LIGHT SW FLOW OVER ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-20. THIS IS INITIALIZED WELL ON NEW NAM AND WE HAVE LOADED
25/00Z NAM WIND DATA FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND DAYLIGHT PERIOD
TOMORROW. AS SUCH...WE HAVE DELAYED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY START
TIME UNTIL NOON THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PUSHING QUICKLY OVER
THE I-30 CORRIDOR...THEN INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON OVER I-20
AS WELL. OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY NOW SOUTH AND SOME CIRRUS SHIELD
LEFTOVERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE FOUR STATE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY ON SUNDAY. ALL PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN UPDATED ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 25/00Z TAF PERIOD. AN
EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD E ACROSS THE SRN
2/3RDS OF THE REGION TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM N TO
S SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS S
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON IN
WAKE OF THE FROPA. SHOULD ALSO SEE A POST-FRONTAL CU CIGS SPREAD
SSE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...REACHING THE SW AR TERMINALS BY MID-
AFTERNOON...AND THE I-20 TERMINALS OF E TX/N LA BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SW WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NW AND INCREASE TO
10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KTS BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 144 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEASONALLY MILD TEMPERATURES HAVE FINALLY BEEN ACHIEVED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTN AS RAIN AND CLOUDS EXITED THE REGION TO THE EAST
YESTERDAY. A WESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW...AND BECMG ZONAL ALOFT AS WELL...BRINGING
MUCH DRIER AIR TO REGION...WITH ONLY A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS SOUTH OF
I-20. A COLD FRONT...STILL IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WILL BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE SWD QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AS UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO WRAP UP AND DIVE SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW.
THIS FRONT WILL ENTER RED RIVER VALLEY LATE MORNING SUNDAY...AND
SWEEP ACROSS AREA. GFS ADVERTISING STRONGER NW WINDS WITH FRONT
THAN DOES NAM...HOWEVER BOTH MODELS KEEPING WINDS UP ABOVE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS...WIND SPEEDS BOIL DOWN TO AN ISSUE OF
DOWNWARD MIXING. SINCE TOMORROW WILL BE A WARM DAY AND A SUNDAY
WITH BOATERS LIKELY ABUNDANT...WILL ERR ON SIDE OF CAUTION AND
ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF SUNDAY...FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...INCLUDING EVERYWHERE NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH A GOOD BIT BY SUNSET...BUT
HOLD UP ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING TO FRZG FOR
ALL BUT FAR NORTH SECTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LVL RIDGING OVER WESTERN STATES WILL FLATTEN OUT BY MID WEEK
AS THE ZONAL FLOW AND SEASONALLY WARM TEMPS CONTINUE FOR THE REGION.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH DEEP NW FLOW TO MOVE IN EARLY THURSDAY.
GULF FLOW WILL REMAIN CUT OFF WITH MOISTURE BUILDING FROM UPPER
INTO THE MID LVLS. THE NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE A WET ONE...WITH
CHANCE POPS POSSIBLY NEEDED TO BE RAISED AS THE EVENT BECOMES NEARER.
POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR SOME WINTER WEATHER FOR AT LEAST I-30 AND
NORTH. HOWEVER...ATTM IT APPEARS THAT THE TRANSITION WILL BE MORE
OF A RAIN TO SNOW...RATHER THAN AN ICING EVENT. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  39  66  36  62  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  38  65  36  57  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  33  64  31  63  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  39  64  36  59  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  36  64  34  58  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  39  65  37  65  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  38  66  35  64  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  39  67  37  65  43 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-019-021-022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-150-151.

&&

$$

24/15




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