Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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261
FXUS64 KSHV 280220
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
920 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...
The swath of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms continued to
push east thus leaving Northeast Texas and Northwest Louisiana
relatively dry, aside from a few sprinkles. Will be paying
attention to thunderstorms across Southeast Oklahoma and whether
or not that activity will hold together and make it McCurtain
county and some Northeast Texas counties. Have therefore held
onto slight chance pops there. Sustained wind speeds have declined
quite a bit especially within rain-free areas, but gusty winds
will continue to gradually subside. Have therefore elected to let
the Lake Wind Advisory expire on time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 705 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

AVIATION...
Stg tstms have moved east and south of cwa and not affecting any
areal terminals. A large area of lgt to mod showers with isold
embedded thunder movg east across the area and has moved east of
all but keld and kmlu terminals. Period of mostly vfr conditions
this eve, becmg low mvfr to ifr by around 28/06z for most of the
area. narrow sfc temp and dew point spreads allow for fog to
easily set up even with some clouds and breeze. SE winds west of
precip have increased to 10 to 15 kts with a few gusts over 25
kts. These winds should diminish to 5 to 10 kts after about
28/03z. local areas of higher wind gusts in the wake of this
precip occurred last night and are appearing to do so again in the
wake of this precip. KSHV has been receiving ocnl wind gusts from
se around 35 kts. Cigs slowly improve to mostly vfr btwn 18/17-20z
across the area sat with south winds near 10 kts. isold to sct convection
may redevelop in very unstable but limited moisture airmass sat
aftn at mainly KMLU./vii/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 410 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms continue to develop and spread to the NE this
afternoon as a slow moving QLCS continues to move across portions
of the Four State Region. Damaging winds are the main threat with
this QLCS, along with isolated one inch hail and possibly an
isolated tornado. SPC decided to issue a SVR T-Storm Watch until
9 PM across a small portion of Deep East Texas and all of Central
Louisiana...where the strongest echoes have appeared on radar this
afternoon. So far today, we had had several reports of trees down
across portions of Deep East Texas and Central Louisiana, as this
system slowly pushes its way through. Along with the wind damage,
there has also been isolated reports of Flash Flooding across the
same areas. In addition to the severe weather, a Lake Wind
Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM tonight, as a tight
pressure gradient between a surface high to the East and the
surface low pressure system to the Northwest of the region will
continue to produce strong and gusty winds this afternoon into
the late evening hours. The upper low that is responsible for the
SVR weather today will be lifting out into the Central and
Northern Plains late Saturday and becomes an open wave taking most
of its energy away for our area and will not provide a necessary
push to send a cold front into the area. However, we will remain
in an active weather pattern over the next week. Another in a
series of disturbances will be moving into the region ahead of our
next closing upper low over Southern CA. This next upper
low/trough will be slow to exit the Southwest section of the
country and Northern Mexico keeping an unsettled weather pattern
for the forecast area into next week. At the moment, it also
appears that a Northern Stream upper low pressure system will
shift east across the Northern US Rockies and Plains region,
helping nudge a cold front into the region during mid to late
week. The front will become nearly stationary, providing a focus
for convection with disturbances associated with the Southwest
tracking upper low. High temperatures will remain in the mid to
upper 80s across the region, with low temperatures in the upper
60s/lower 70s. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  87  71  89 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  69  86  69  89 /  60  40  20  20
DEQ  67  85  67  87 /  20  20  20  30
TXK  69  86  70  89 /  20  20  20  30
ELD  69  85  69  88 /  30  30  20  20
TYR  71  88  70  86 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  70  87  70  87 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  71  89  71  89 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/07/20



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