Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 010908
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
408 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING ISOLD CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT
LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR LUFKIN TO EL DORADO. FRONT IS FCST
TO BECOME MORE W-E ORIENTED AND STALL AS THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...AS THE DISTURBED SW FLOW ALOFT
RIDES OVER THE BOUNDARY. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS...BUT THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS OUR DEEP E TX
COUNTIES AND ADJACENT W CENTRAL LA PARISHES THROUGH MONDAY. WPC
HAS THIS AREA INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL
AXIS AND THE FACT THAT THESE AREAS DID NOT RECEIVE MUCH RAINFALL
WITH THE FRI/SAT EVENT...WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS
SHIFT.

UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DIG SEWD THROUGH
MONDAY...WHICH WILL FORCE THE FRONT AND THE RAINFALL SEWD AND OUT
OF OUR REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY WHICH WILL SIGNAL THE END OF THE RAINFALL FOR A WHILE.
THIS WILL ALSO REINFORCE A COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE...KEEPING OUR
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP IN THE WAKE THE UPPER TROF AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES JUST E OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE OUR DRY
SPELL THROUGH THE END OF THE FCST PD. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO
AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WE GO SEVERAL DAYS WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1205 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/06Z TAFS...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS LOCATED FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KMNE...TO BETWEEN KLFK AND KJAS. CONVECTION HAS BEEN MORE ROBUST
AND HAS PERSISTED ACROSS SRN AR BUT HAS STRUGGLED FARTHER SOUTH.
ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AS THE WEAK FRONT ADVANCES SEWD AND BECOMES DIFFUSE. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IMPACTS AT THE TAF SITES SO NO MENTION OF
PRECIP WAS INCLUDED WITH THIS ISSUANCE. LOW CIGS AND
FOG...INCLUDING SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG...SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE AND
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BY 01/18Z. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
ROUND OF PRECIP MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING
THE LAST FEW HRS OF THE TAF PERIOD. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  62  73  54 /  30  60  60  20
MLU  83  65  74  56 /  40  60  70  30
DEQ  78  55  70  48 /  10  60  40  10
TXK  81  59  71  51 /  10  60  50  10
ELD  83  61  71  53 /  20  60  60  20
TYR  80  59  71  51 /  30  60  50  10
GGG  83  61  72  53 /  30  60  50  20
LFK  83  65  75  56 /  40  60  60  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12


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