Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 181057
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
457 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING IN AND OUT
OF LIGHT RAIN AREAS. RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING MOST OF THE RAIN
PULLING OUT OF THE NE TX TERMINALS AS WELL AS THE TXK TERMINAL BUT
THE QUESTION IS WILL -DZ DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN. WILL
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS WEAK...IT IS THERE SO CANNOT RULE IT OUT AT
LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE
TODAY...IF AT ALL...SO DECIDED TO BE OPTIMISTIC AND BRING CEILINGS
UP TO NEAR 1KFT BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. OBVIOUSLY IF LIGHT
DRIZZLE SETS IN...THEN ALL BETS ARE OFF.

LOOK FOR MOSTLY E/ENE WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS TODAY DIMINISHING TO
NEAR 3-6KTS OVERNIGHT AND BACKING SLIGHTLY TO MORE OF A NE
DIRECTION ACROSS SOME TERMINAL LOCATIONS.

SHRA/TSRA WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL/SE TX
AND WILL ADVANCE QUICKLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...
LIKELY SWALLOWING THE LFK TERMINAL AND EVENTUALLY CLOSER TO THE
I-20 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE TYR/GGG/SHV TERMINALS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN CNTRL KS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD TOWARDS
THE MIDWEST. STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF
COAST. BAND OF PRECIP EXTENDS FROM THE SE TX COAST NEWD INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY. THIS BAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD TODAY AND MOST OF
THE RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HRS SHOULD BE EAST OF A LINE FROM KTYR
TO PRESCOTT AR. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...CURRENT OVER THE DESERT
SW...WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES THIS EVENING INTO SW TX AND EVENTUALLY
MOVE NEWD OVER THE CWA BY LATE FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE...A DEVELOPING
SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR
AREA WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY TSTMS ISOLATED. MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ON FRIDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN ONE AND
THREE INCHES. SOME INSTANCES OF ISOLATED FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP E TX AND INTO CNTRL LA.

RAIN SHOULD END BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT AN ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE. YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. A FEW SHWRS COULD OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM
BUT CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOW AS LOW LVL MOISTURE MAY BE LACKING. A
MUCH STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE AFFECT MUCH OF THE COUNTRY AND
SHOULD BRING A COLD FRONT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
LATEST ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY WETTER COMPARED TO THE GFS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CLIMO BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMS NEXT WEEK. NO MAJOR COLD AIRMASS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK AND MOST OF THE COOL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO PERSISTENT OVERCAST SKIES AND RAIN. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  48  49  41  53 /  40  60  70  40  10
MLU  52  47  47  40  52 /  40  60  80  60  10
DEQ  47  43  48  36  52 /  20  30  60  40  10
TXK  47  45  47  37  51 /  30  40  60  40  10
ELD  49  46  46  38  51 /  40  40  70  60  10
TYR  56  48  49  41  54 /  30  70  70  30  10
GGG  53  48  49  41  53 /  30  70  70  30  10
LFK  62  49  52  44  55 /  60  80  80  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19/13





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