Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 180804
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
404 AM AST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH A SFC-700 MB TROF IN THE EASTERLIES. THIS WILL YIELD SHALLOW
ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST PR AND ST. CROIX TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROF AXIS IN COOL NORTHEAST FLOW. OTHERWISE...MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FRIDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY LEADING TO
STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND FAIR WX CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
-SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PR AND USVI TERMINALS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH SCT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT
BELOW FL050.

&&

.MARINE...SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 15 KT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
SOMEWHAT CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS.
SEAS 4-6 FT IN MIXED SWELLS AND WIND WAVES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  75  82  70 /  20  20  10  10
STT  84  76  85  73 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

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