Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 260943
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
543 AM AST TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL
CONTINUE NORTH OF LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TROUGH ALOFT
WILL INDUCE A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...PROMOTING A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS TROUGH ALOFT
WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE PATTERN WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS
OBSERVED ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS. THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS...WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS.

THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS
FEATURE WILL INDUCE A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN WHICH WILL PROMOTE A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN UNDER 850MB
THRU THURSDAY.

EXPECT TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS AS WELL AS
LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND
WEST OF THE CORDILLERA EACH DAY THRU THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A SHARP INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED AT ALL LEVELS UNDER A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY ACROSS LOCAL ISLANDS WITH
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND.
STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 26/17Z WITH SCT SHRA
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS MORNING. SOME OF THEM WILL BRIEFLY
AFFECT TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TKPK/TNCM. FOR THE AFTERNOON...BRIEF MVFR
CONDS POSSIBLE AT TJMZ/TJPS WITH MTN TOPS OBSCD FROM 26/17Z THROUGH
26/23Z DUE TO POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR. SFC WINDS UNTIL 26/12Z FROM THE E-NE AT 5 TO 10
KTS...AFT 26/12Z...AT 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...AND
GUSTING UP 25KT TIL 26/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS WITH SEAS
BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  78  88  78 /  70  20  20  30
STT  88  77  88  77 /  70  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23


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