Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 060906
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE REGION LATER TODAY. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA TUEDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVED OVERNIGHT
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SOME SHOWERS WERE
NOTED...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS MOVED QUICKLY...WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WITH SOME HAZY
SKIES AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY...HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE.
ANOTHER AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS FORECAST TO AFFECT REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST COMPUTER GUIDANCE INDICATED CHANCES OF
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS.
PASSING SHRA WILL MOVE IN AND AROUND TNCM/TKPK...TIST/TISX AND
TJSJ THROUGH MID-MORNING...06/14Z. THEN...ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE OVER
WEST PR BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 15-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOY ARE SHOWING HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE DIMINISHING
ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO
EXPIRE AT 11 AM THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA...DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION
LATER TODAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WAS
ISSUED FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTH COAST
OF PUERTO RICO.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  89  80 /  40  10  30  20
STT  90  79  89  79 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM AST THIS MORNING FOR ATLC
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

11/71


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