Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 231912
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
312 PM AST WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A
WAVE BUT WILL REMAIN A STRONG WAVE ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN. 12Z GFS
MAINTAINS 40 KNOT WINDS AT 4 KFT ONLY 60 NM SOUTH OF ST. CROIX AND
SOUTH PR COAST ON THU/18Z WHICH MIGHT BE A LITTLE OVERDONE THOUGH
GFS MOVES IT ALONG AT 20 KT ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN. INCREASING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THU MORNING
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER MAINTAINING 2.4 INCHES WHILE IT DOES. GRIDS
WERE UPGRADED FOR THIS WHICH APPEARS LIKELY AS IT WILL NOT
EFFECTIVELY LEAVE THE ITCZ DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE WAVE
IS STILL NOT LIKELY TO REDEVELOP INTO A DEPRESSION ESPECIALLY AS
IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER THE LOW LEVEL CARIBBEAN JET LATE THU...
WHICH WILL ABSORB THE WAVE. FLOODING MAY NOT BE A SUBSTANTIAL
THREAT SINCE IT WILL BE MOVING SO QUICKLY BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW
INTENSE THE SHOWERS BECOME.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA OV W PR WL DECR LATE AFT BUT IFR A THREAT AT
TJMZ FOR NXT COUPLE OF HRS. OTW ISOLD SHRA THRUOUT AREA INTO
TONITE. SHRA/TSRA INCR ON THU FM TROPICAL WV ALG WI IFR/MVFR ALL
TAF SITES AND OBSCD MTNS. WIND BLO FL150 E 15-25 KT INCR 20-30 KT
LATE TONITE.

&&

.MARINE...INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY BRING
THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING...GUSTY WIND AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS WHICH
MAY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. INCREASING TRADE WINDS WILL ALSO
BOOST SEAS TO 7 FT OR SO ON THE CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE WATERS BY LATE
FRI. GFS MAINTAINS STRENGTH OF THE WAVE WHILE PASSING SOUTH OF ST.
CROIX AND PR ON THU. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR
CARIBBEAN WATERS TOMORROW IF THIS APPEARS LIKELY. STRONG WIND
GUSTS IN CONVECTION AT LEAST SEEMS A GOOD BET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  91  79  90 /  40  50  40  40
STT  81  91  80  91 /  40  50  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

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