Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 160834 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
433 AM AST TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NNW OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY MERGE WITH A
DEEPENING TROF OVR ERN NOAM. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ON FRI.
ANOTHER TUTT WILL ESTABLISH OVR THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY WITH
MOISTURE ERODING QUICKLY. BOTH ARW AND NMM VERSIONS OF THE HI-RES
WRF MODEL SHOW SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TODAY
THAN YDAY. ALSO...STEERING WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE THE ESE FOCUSING
ANY SHOWERS FROM UTUADO WEST TO AGUADA. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING 50W THIS
MORNING WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI. WHILE
WAVE IS GENERATING QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION RIGHT NOW AND MAY
HAVE A WEAK LOW PRES AREA ACCOMPANYING IT...THE WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO ENCOUNTER MORE HOSTILE CONDITIONS OVR THE NE CARIBBEAN THU AND
FRI AS IT BECOMES UNDER CONVERGENT UPPER FLOW BETWEEN
RETROGRESSING CNTRL ATLC TUTT AND UPPER RIDGE OVR THE CNTRL
CARIBBEAN. DRYING IS EXPECTED OVR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR XPCTD THRU WED MRNG XCP LOW CHC MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA AT
TJMZ/TJBQ THIS AFT AND ELSEWHERE PSBL VRY BRF MVFR CIG IN ISOLD
SHRA. AREAS OBSCD MTNS WEST PR IN AFT. WIND BLO FL150 E 5-12 KT BCMG
SE THIS AFT BCMG E LATE WED AFT.

&&

.MARINE...ENE SWELLS PERHAPS UP TO 5 FT WILL BECOME MORE NERLY ON
WED WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING. WAVE MODELS OVERESTIMATING SWELL
HEIGHTS AT BUOYS 41043...41044 AND 41049 BY SVRL FEET. 5 FT SWELLS
MAY ONLY BE CONFINED TO AMZ710.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  79  88  81 /  10   0  10  10
STT  81  80  82  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

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