Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KTBW 300826
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
326 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SATURDAY)...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BREAK DOWN TODAY AS A DRY
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. CLOUD COVER WILL
BRIEFLY INCREASE ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 PERCENT OR LESS. WINDS WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY
AND TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WILL
QUICKLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH
OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO ONLY
DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...AND 40S AND
LOW 50S FROM THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR SOUTH. ON SATURDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH WINDS COMING
AROUND TO EAST-NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP TO NEAR TO
JUST BELOW NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.

.MID/LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
MODELS ARE NOW IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AS A CUTOFF LOW DRIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
WITH A NEAR ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS FLORIDA. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST OUT
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SETTING UP A RETURN FLOW AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS SHIFT FROM EASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT TO SOUTHEASTERLY ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WITH SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS/ALTOCUMULUS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES LEAVING THE CUTOFF LOW BEHIND OVER
MEXICO. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA MONDAY LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.

DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH THE CUTOFF LOW GRADUALLY OPENING UP AND LIFTING
INTO SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS NOW GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE FRONT THAT
MOVED INTO THE AREA MONDAY WILL WEAKEN AND STALL ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT COULD SEE A COUPLE OF SHOWERS HERE AND THERE AS
THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NATURE COAST.

FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. HELPING TO PUSH THE REMNANT ENERGY OF THE
CUTOFF LOW EASTWARD WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT NO MATTER WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

NO EXTREME TEMPERATURES...EITHER REAL WARM OR REAL COLD...ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM NEAR TO A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NIGHT AND DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTS AND NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DAY AND NIGHTS
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PICKUP BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
TURN TO THE NORTH TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL DETERIORATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL
WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EXPAND ACROSS
ALL GULF ZONES THIS EVENING...WITH WIND SPEEDS BORDERING ON SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY WITH
WINDS SPEEDS MODERATING...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF CAUTIONARY HEADLINES
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...PULLING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK...AND BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND BUILDING
WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILL INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE 40S AND UPPER 30S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CRITICAL LEVELS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  70  46  70  54 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  74  51  74  54 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  71  46  69  51 /  10   0   0   0
SRQ  69  47  70  52 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  69  38  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  68  51  67  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM...69/CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.