Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 272354
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
654 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

.AVIATION...
28/00Z-28/24Z TAFs: VFR conditions will prevail through the period,
with the exception of brief periods of MVFR VSBY restrictions at
KPGD in BR from 09-15Z. Winds will remain generally light out of the
east overnight, becoming south-southeast by late morning, then a
more westerly direction by the afternoon as the sea breeze sets up.
No other aviation impacts expected.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 215 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017/

SYNOPSIS...
Aloft - A long wave trough extended from the northern Canadian
prairies southwestward...across CA to Pacific coastal waters...
while a low in northern Quebec troughed down over the
Canadian Maritimes to the Atlantic. A ridge centered near
the Isle of Youth, Cuba sprawled up over the Gulf of Mexico.
Surface - A low was in the central U.S. Rockies with one
front through the Desert Southwest to southern CA coastal
waters and a second front strung eastward to the Saint
Lawrence Valley. A warm front stretched from the central
plains to the eastern Gulf coastal states. High pressure
east of the NJ/DE/MD coast ridged down across FL to the Gulf
of Mexico.

SHORT TERM (Rest of today and Tuesday)...
The longwave trough pivots to the high plains while the
ridge center slides to the Yucatan then lifts into the Gulf
of Mexico...with west-southwest flow aloft becoming north-
northwest by late Tue afternoon. The surface high track east
along 34-40 North latitude while continuing to ridge back
over FL and across much of the Gulf. The warm front moves
to the south side of the Great Lakes.

A weak short wave trough...embedded in the west-southwest aloft...
slides across the east Gulf and Fl this afternoon. This
will supply enough lift which along with a sea breeze
circulation and a modest increase in moisture will support
some low odds of showers and storms inland later this
afternoon. Expect the convection to end around sunset with a
pleasant evening. Although light winds over night and a
continued slow increase in moisture will produce some patchy
fog toward morning. As the upper ridge eases into the Gulf
Tue heights across the area will increase and flow aloft
become north-northeasterly...inhibiting convection despite
a slow continued increase in moisture. Models PWAT values
reach the 1.2 to 1.5 inch range. Temperatures will run
above normal.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night - Monday)...
A progressive upper level pattern will continue across the Conus
during the long term period. Models are in good agreement with
synoptic scale features, so will use a blend. Upper ridging over the
Gulf and Florida with an attendant surface high from the Atlantic
extending west across the central peninsula at the start of the
period will shift east into the Atlantic through Wednesday as an
upper level trough and attendant cold front pushes east into the
lower Mississippi Valley. A low level southeast to southerly wind
flow will keep warm and muggy conditions across the forecast area
through the period under partly cloudy skies. Light winds and ample
low level moisture will likely support some late night and early
morning fog across the forecast area the next few days and will
depict in the grids.

On Thursday the aforementioned upper level trough will move east
across the southeastern states with the attendant cold front moving
into the northern peninsula in the morning, then sinking south
through the forecast area Thursday afternoon and night. Sufficient
moisture and lift should support low chances (Pops 20 to 30 percent)
for some showers along and ahead of the front as it moves south
through the forecast area.

During Thursday night the front will slow and stall out across the
southern peninsula as it becomes parallel to the upper level flow.
Friday into Saturday strong surface high pressure will build in over
the mid Atlantic coast as the remnant frontal boundary to the south
washes out. Slightly cooler and drier conditions on Friday in the
wake of the front will rebound quickly during the upcoming weekend
as the surface high shifts eastward off the mid Atlantic coast into
the Atlantic with a moderate return easterly wind flow providing
breezy conditions as the pressure gradient tightens. The easterly
wind flow will support a slow increase in moisture along with
warming temperatures which will continue through Monday under partly
cloudy skies.

Temperatures will run some 10 to 12 degrees above normal during
Wednesday and Thursday with overnight lows in the 60s with highs
climbing into the lower 80s along the coast, and mid to upper 80s
inland. Temperatures will briefly fall back to near normal on
Friday, before climbing back to above normal during the upcoming
weekend and into early next week.

AVIATION...
18Z TAFs: VFR prevail through most of period with FEW-SCT CU/SC
under CI. Except...BKN CI in the evening then late night BR dropping
into the 3-6SM range. SE winds shift to S or SW later in the
afternoon then light variable/easterly overnight.

MARINE...
High pressure moving across the Atlantic will ridge back to
the Gulf waters through about midweek. Then a front drops
south Thu and Fri...followed by high pressure building in
over the Gulf coast/southeastern states for the weekend.
Prevailing southeast and southerly winds...at 15 knots or
less...veer to northwest then northeast behind the
front...increasing to around 20 knots late in the week and
early in the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure moving east over the Atlantic will ridge back
across FL through about midweek with a prevailing southeast
to south flow maintaining humidities above critical levels.
A cold front treks through the state Thu-Fri with some
slightly drier air filtering in behind...reaching northern
counties Fri,

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  66  84  66  82 /  10   0  10  10
FMY  67  87  67  86 /  10  10  10  10
GIF  66  86  66  86 /  10  10  10  10
SRQ  65  82  65  80 /  10  10  10  10
BKV  61  87  63  84 /  10  10  10  10
SPG  66  82  67  81 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EST this evening for
     Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Sarasota.

Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...74/Wynn



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