Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 121400
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1000 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.UPDATE...
LOW LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A
GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...BUT THESE
EXPECT THESE TO WIND DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SEA
BREEZES GET UNDERWAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER RANGING FROM 1.75 TO 2 INCHES...BUT THERE IS A
SLIGHTLY DRIER SLOT...PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES... MOVING
WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING.
THIS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF STORMS BY AN HOUR
OR TWO IN THIS AREA...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
MOVE BACK IN FROM THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE...FOR THE REST OF TODAY EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BAY/SEA
BREEZES DEVELOP THEN BECOME MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MID-
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE MOVES WESTWARD. THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FROM
ABOUT MANATEE AND HARDEE COUNTY SOUTHWARD WHERE THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL RETURN LATER TODAY. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP ABOUT 10
PERCENT IN THE GRIDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FOR THE REST OF
TODAY AND WILL UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF
FORECAST LOOK ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS
KEEPING LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO
WEST AS A DISTANT COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND PUSHES THE RIDGE AXIS TOWARD THE FLORIDA
KEYS. THE ONLY EXPECTED HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER
SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  77  92  78 /  50  20  50  30
FMY  93  75  92  75 /  60  20  50  20
GIF  92  74  92  77 /  50  10  50  20
SRQ  91  76  91  77 /  40  20  50  30
BKV  91  72  93  73 /  50  20  50  20
SPG  90  79  91  80 /  40  20  50  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...13/OGLESBY



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