Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
FXUS62 KTBW 250732
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
332 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017
...Elevated Fire Dangers To Continue...
.SHORT TERM (Today - Wednesday)...
Cyclonic flow aloft associated with a closed upper level low over
South Carolina early this morning will transistion to a zonal flow
with weak short wave ridging later today through Wednesday as the
closed low and attendant surface low lift further northward up the
eastern seaboard. At the surface high pressure over the central Gulf
of Mexico this morning will support pleasant dry weather with a
westerly wind flow over the region today as the high moves slowly
east through the day. After a cool start temperatures will rebound
back to near seasonal norms under partly cloudy skies with highs
climbing into the upper 70s along the coast, and around 80 to the
lower 80s over inland areas during the afternoon.
Tonight into Wednesday surface high pressure will shift east into
the Atlantic and extend back to the west across the south-central
peninsula as a zonal flow and weak ridging aloft continues. As the
surface high moves east winds will back to the southeast and south
which will begin a warming trend across the forecast area. Stable
dry conditions will support mainly clear skies tonight, and ample
sunshine on Wednesday. Near normal temperatures tonight will climb
to slightly above normal on Wednesday with highs climbing into the
lower 80s along the coast, and mid to upper 80s inland.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night - Monday)...
Wednesday night and Thursday, a deep upper level trough will be
rotating from the southern plains through the southeastern CONUS,
pushing weak mid level ridging out of Florida. At the surface,
Atlantic high pressure will ridge across the Florida Peninsula and
hold through the second half of the week, setting up warm and stable
conditions, with building temperatures. High temperatures over the
interior will top out in the low to mid 90s each afternoon Thursday
through Sunday, with mid to upper 80s along the coast.
Low level moisture will also be increasing through the week, which
will increase humidity and allow for slight chances of showers each
afternoon Friday through Sunday. By Monday a stronger upper level
trough will be crossing the eastern CONUS, pushing a cold front into
the Florida Panhandle. The upper level trough is forecast to stay
well north of the Florida Peninsula, so the cold front will lose
momentum as it moves into the forecast area and is not looking like
it will make a fast or clean push through the region. Still, as the
front approaches it will bring better chances for showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the front Monday and Monday night.
VFR will prevail at all terminal sites during the next 24 hours.
Lingering moisture in the wake of a cold front will support broken
to overcast cigs in the 040-050 foot range through 10Z as strato-cu
clouds continue to advect in from the Gulf. After 10Z mainly few to
scattered cu/strato-cu clouds in the 040-050 foot range will
prevail, with skies becoming clear after 01Z tonight. West winds in
the 10 to 15 knot range can be expected with winds diminishing to 5
knots or less after 02Z tonight.
C-man and offshore buoy trends show that wind and seas continue to
diminish and subside early this morning. A closed upper level low
and attendant surface low lifting slowly up the eastern seaboard and
surface high pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico will maintain
a westerly wind flow in the 10 to 15 knot range with seas of 2 to 4
feet over the Gulf waters today. Tonight into Wednesday the surface
high over the Gulf will shift east into the Atlantic and extend back
to the west across the south-central peninsula which will allow
winds to back to the southeast and south, with lighter winds
supporting an onshore sea breeze component developing along the
coast during Wednesday afternoon.
Thursday through Saturday surface high pressure from the western
Atlantic extending west across the central peninsula will maintain a
light southeast to southerly wind flow across the Gulf waters with
an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast each
afternoon. Winds and seas should remain below 15 knots and 5 feet
through the period with no headlines anticipated at this
Some pockets of humidity values below 35 percent will be possible
over interior Polk county this afternoon, but with durations of an
hour or less red flag conditions are not expected. On Wednesday a
larger area of humidity values below 35 percent can be expected over
Sumter, Polk, Highlands, and Desoto counties during the afternoon,
but again limited durations will preclude red flag conditions. Even
though red flag conditions are expected the very dry conditions
across the region will keep elevated Fire dangers in place through
the remainder of the week and outdoor burning is not
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 78 65 81 69 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 80 63 84 68 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 81 60 85 64 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 77 65 79 67 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 79 59 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 77 67 79 71 / 0 0 0 0
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 AM EDT this morning for
Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-
Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/McMichael
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/Fleming