Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KTBW 020719
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
319 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR LEVY...CITRUS...HERNANDO...PASCO...
PINELLAS...AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...
...EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POSSIBLE FROM THE BAY
AREA NORTH THROUGH THE NATURE COAST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY...
...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TODAY
AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - MONDAY)...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WHILE A POSITIVE
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN U.S...WITH
THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE THIS TROUGH CONTINUING ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH AND FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE A FRONTAL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND NORTHERN GULF AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW
OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA DRIFTS SLOWLY
NORTH TO NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG LOW/MID
LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (PW`S 2+ INCHES) WILL REMAIN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE TROUGHING
A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...AND A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE GULF
ENHANCING COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND
AGAIN ON MONDAY...WITH THE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAUSING
ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS AS WELL AS EXACERBATING THE ONGOING
FLOODING FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTH THROUGH THE NATURE COAST
TO CEDAR KEY WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AXIS AND BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL RESIDE.

HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT
STILL DIFFER SOME WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST QPF
MAXIMA. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES THOUGH THE VERY SATURATED GROUND
COMBINED WITH THE ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE HEAVY RAIN ALL WARRANTS EXTENDING THE ONGOING FLOOD WATCH FOR
PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS...AND LEVY
COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA MORE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
RULE WITHIN THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WITH THE THREAT
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND HIGH RAIN
CHANCES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE COAST WHERE READINGS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOWER TO MID 70S
DEGREE READINGS INLAND.

.MID/LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...
EXPECT A BREAK IN THE WET...WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN FOR MID WEEK.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ADJACENT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT UP
THE ATLANTIC COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC BUILDS ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS WILL HELP ESTABLISH A MORE GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
PATTERN BY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN
RETURNING WITH SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
BOUNDARIES THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS FROM THE
PREVIOUS DAYS WILL MODERATE...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
(MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING ~1.75 PW AND CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG) WILL
LINGER OVER THE REGION TO HELP GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON... MAINLY FAVORING AREAS EAST OF I 75 THROUGH
FRIDAY. MID LEVEL PATTERN MAINTAINS A WEAK BUT BROAD RIDGE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE STATE BY FRIDAY. THIS
FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE TAKING FORM AND PUSHING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS THE SE US...
HELPING TO FORCE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TOWARDS S FL AND BRING A
RETURN TO MOIST WESTERLY FLOW BY FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK AND RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
STORMS OVER THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHRA/TSRA THAT
MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL SITES WILL PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 7
TO 10 KNOT RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 14 TO 18
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 16Z...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS
POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE NORTHERN
GULF WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ON IT NOW OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
TROUGH COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE SMALL CRAFT RANGE FROM TARPON SPRINGS NORTH TO THE
SUWANNEE RIVER TODAY WHERE THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT WILL
EXISTS...WITH CAUTIONARY WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE WATERS. THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES FROM PINELLAS COUNTY SOUTH
TO LEE COUNTY TODAY...SO WILL KEEP THE ONGOING RIP CURRENT
STATEMENT IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION THE STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY SUPPORT TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE
ASTRONOMICAL VALUES TODAY...WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME COASTAL FLOODING
AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...SO WILL ALSO KEEP THE COASTAL HAZARD
STATEMENT IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL BUILD SLOWLY NORTH TO THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA LATE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A LIGHTER
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW (FROM SOUTH TO NORTH) EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WATERS EACH DAY...WITH AN ENHANCED ONSHORE SEA BREEZE
COMPONENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
NORTH TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER TODAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP
HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. MODERATE 20 FOOT WINDS AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL SUPPORT
HIGH DISPERSION INDICES ACROSS THE NATURE COAST COUNTIES
TODAY...OTHERWISE NO OTHER FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR THE MYAKKA RIVER AT
MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK...THE LITTLE MANATEE RIVER AT
WIMAUMA...CYPRESS CREEK AT WORTHINGTON GARDENS...AND THE ANCLOTE
RIVER AT ELFERS. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WILL KEEP WATER LEVELS ALONG THESE RIVERS ELEVATED AND IN
MINOR FLOOD THROUGH MONDAY. ALL RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES IN WATERS LEVELS AND UPDATES
TO THE ONGOING RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED IMMEDIATELY IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT. ALL RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG RIVERS OR FASTER
FLOWING STREAMS SHOULD KEEP ALERT TO ANY RAPID RISES IN WATER
LEVELS AND BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF FLOODING IS
OBSERVED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  77  88  77 /  60  50  60  30
FMY  90  77  90  75 /  40  40  40  20
GIF  87  75  88  75 /  60  40  60  20
SRQ  87  77  88  76 /  50  40  60  30
BKV  86  75  87  73 /  70  60  70  30
SPG  86  78  87  79 /  60  50  60  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
     FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
     RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER/HYDROLOGY...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...20/BARRON


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.