Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 021958
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
358 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

...RAINY AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY-WEDNESDAY/...
A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COMBINES WITH
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA FROM THE CARIBBEAN
TO DELIVER PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE EAST COAST CONVECTION IS SLOWLY CREEPING INLAND
AND WILL LIKELY CREATE BETTER COVERAGE OVER PORTIONS OF POLK AND
SUMTER COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING.

AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SWING OVER THE AREA
AND ALLOW DRIER AIR TO ENTER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS SHOULD AID IN ENDING THE RAINFALL TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD REMAIN. THE TROUGH SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WITH THE FOCUS OF THE CLOUD COVER TO THE
EAST...SOME BETTER SEA BREEZE-STYLE CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR. IF CLOUD COVER LINGERS A BIT
LONGER OR FURTHER WEST THAN EXPECTED...THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
COULD BE HAMPERED AND RAIN CHANCES COULD BE LOWER THAN FORECAST.
EVERYTHING IS RIDING ON THE TIMING OF THE MOISTURE AT THE
DIFFERENT LEVELS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER ON WEDNESDAY
DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY/...
MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SHIFT EAST SOME INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT LINGER ACROSS FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE
SURFACE...A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA AS
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH HOLDS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A LOW LEVEL EAST TO  NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE. EARLY NEXT WEEK A
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC TRYING TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE
AREA. THIS SHOULD SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH DIRECTION. IN GENERAL THIS PATTERN ALONG WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE
SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER INLAND AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES
COOLER CLOSE TO THE COAST THANKS TO THE SEA BREEZE...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR...LOWERING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR/LIFR WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND POSSIBLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT EXCEPT FOR VARIABLE GUSTINESS
AROUND CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HAZARDS FOR MARINERS OTHER THAN THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE HEADLINE
CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION OVER SHOULD MITIGATE MOST FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE COMING DAYS. PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO RAIN-MOISTENED AND LOW-LYING FOG PRONE AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  87  74  91 /  30  40  30  30
FMY  71  87  73  92 /  60  40  30  40
GIF  70  87  72  91 /  70  30  20  40
SRQ  71  85  73  90 /  40  30  30  30
BKV  68  87  69  92 /  30  40  30  40
SPG  74  85  74  90 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/MARINE...02/GARCIA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...69/CLOSE


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