Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 170015
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
815 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Tonight and Thu. Upper level ridge anchored along 30 North
Latitude with limited suppression and warm temperatures will
continue as an inverted upper trough moves over the Bahamas late
Thu. The subtropical ridge from the Atlantic to the Gulf of
Mexico...bisecting the state in the vicinity of Tampa
Bay...remains in place for the next 24 hours and beyond. The
pressure gradient stays relaxed with light low level flow
dominated by sea breeze circulations Thu afternoon. Deep moisture
with PWAT above 2 inches holds on over the area into Thu night
with a broad swath of drier air...associated with the upper
trough...over the Bahamas.

Afternoon thunderstorms were robust at times but rather well behaved
but are now winding down and should end within the next couple of
hours. Will update the forecast shortly to reflect this. A few
showers and storms are expected to form later tonight on the Gulf
and drift onto the Nature Coast late morning. A moist airmass
with light flow will result in Thu being a repeat of
today...summer time with showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
17/00Z TAFs. Prevailing VFR. BKN mid-high clouds clear overnight
with light mainly variable winds. AFT 16Z-18Z...Increasing clouds
with VCNTY TSRA as bay-sea breezes set up. Limited MVFR/LCL IFR
PSBL late in the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Atlantic high pressure meanders across central Fl and out over
the Gulf of Mexico for much of the weekend then lifts into
northern FL for the start of next week. The pressure gradient
remains relaxed with sea breeze circulations in the afternoons.
The main concern will be locally higher winds and seas near
thunderstorms.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  81  92  79  91 /  10  40  20  50
FMY  77  93  77  93 /  10  40  20  50
GIF  76  94  76  93 /  20  60  20  60
SRQ  78  90  78  91 /  10  30  20  50
BKV  76  91  75  91 /  10  40  20  50
SPG  80  93  79  90 /  10  30  20  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...09/Rude
UPPER AIR...27/Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...13/Oglesby



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