Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 292038
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
238 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WEAK INSTABILITY WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND STILL EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WEST. LATER TONIGHT A
WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND
COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS. SATURDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE SOME
LIFT FROM THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE AS WELL AS A SURFACE TROUGH.
THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ZONES AND WILL INDICATE THIS IN THE FORECAST. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING AND EXPECT MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE ALOFT MOVES
IN. THEN LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER
WESTERN MONTANA BUT ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT COMBINED
WITH CONTINUED INSTABILITY WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA BY THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS. BLANK

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDERNEATH A
FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUNDAY NIGHT THAT WILL GRADUALLY SHARPEN
MONDAY. HOWEVER, MOISTURE AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROF OVER THE
WEST COAST WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE AIRMASS WILL
BECOME UNSTABLE AGAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF TO THE WEST WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TUESDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BROADEN AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
WESTERN US. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST MOISTURE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS COOL AND TEMPERATURES, AFTER
BEGINNING THE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WELL ABOVE NORMALS,
WILL TREND LOWER TO NEAR NORMALS BY THURSDAY. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...

UPDATED 1730Z.

FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE PLAINS OF MONTANA AND
SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS WILL BECOME VFR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. THESE WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH CEILINGS THEN NEAR AND ABOVE 15000 FT. BY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  70  51  76 /  20  50  30  20
CTB  43  67  45  74 /  30  50  30  10
HLN  51  74  53  77 /  30  50  40  40
BZN  47  71  50  75 /  20  50  40  30
WEY  39  64  43  69 /  20  40  30  30
DLN  48  71  51  77 /  30  50  40  30
HVR  44  76  47  80 /  10  30  40  20
LWT  46  71  49  73 /  10  60  40  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



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