Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 231046
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
546 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
RIDGE OF HI PRES ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PD.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BY 16Z THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS AT THE NE OK SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
ELSEWHERE...AND WILL SUBSIDE IN ALL AREAS BY AROUND SUNSET THIS
EVENING.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE CWA AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TEMPS
REACH CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS HIGHS WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY BEING
A DEGREE OR SO WARMER. SOME DRIER AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED TO FILTER
INTO PARTS OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP HEAT
INDICES JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
WILL BE LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY OVER
FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LIGHTER WINDS OVER
THESE LOCATIONS WILL HELP TO LIMIT OVERALL AFTERNOON
MIXING...KEEPING DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER COMPARED TO THE REST OF
THE CWA. THESE CONDITIONS COULD CREATE HEAT INDICES AROUND 105
DEGREES AGAIN TODAY. THUS...HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR LE
FLORE...SEBASTIAN AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO HOLD OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...CONTINUING HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL HAVE TO
RE-EVALUATE EACH DAY TO DETERMINE IF ANY ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES
WILL BE NEEDED.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A CHANGING OF
AIRMASSES OVER THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE
TROF FLATTENING OUT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND PUSHING THROUGH
THE PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MAY BE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE CWA. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR A BREAK IN THE HOT CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 80S
POSSIBLE FOR THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  102  77 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   99  75 100  74 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   98  76  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
BVO  101  73 101  72 /   0   0  10   0
FYV   95  72  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   96  72  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   98  74  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   98  72  99  72 /   0   0   0   0
F10   98  74  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   98  74  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR OKZ076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR ARZ020-
     ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...30




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