Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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203
FXUS64 KTSA 010818
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
318 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The upper low over Arizona will open up and its remnants will
shear eastward across the plains over the next 24 hours.
Sufficient mid-level moisture will accompany the system for
showers and some thunderstorms to develop in the region late today
and tonight. Point soundings suggest a fair amount of elevated
CAPE will develop tonight in far southeast Oklahoma for
thunderstorms. Additionally the deep-layer shear looks like it
could be sufficient for storm organization and later forecasts may
need to include the mention of an isolated severe storm. The
precipitation will exit our area early Monday.

On Tuesday, a fairly strong short-wave will cross eastern Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas from the northwest. It appears that this
system will not have enough moisture available to generate
precipitation in our area, but sometimes the precipitation
potential is underestimated with systems dropping in from the
northwest.

An omega block upper-level pattern will develop by mid week across
the country and our area will see rising heights aloft from
Wednesday into Saturday. This is expected to keep the weather
quiet through that period. By late in the next weekend southwest
flow aloft should reach the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  48  64  46 /  10  30  10   0
FSM   74  51  68  47 /   0  40  20  10
MLC   70  50  66  45 /   0  40  10   0
BVO   64  46  63  43 /  20  40  10   0
FYV   68  48  62  42 /   0  30  20  10
BYV   70  49  62  43 /   0  30  30  10
MKO   68  48  65  44 /   0  40  10   0
MIO   65  46  63  42 /   0  30  10   0
F10   67  48  65  45 /   0  40  10   0
HHW   74  53  69  47 /   0  50  20   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....08



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