Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 241128

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
428 AM MST Fri Nov 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Thursday)
Issued at 158 AM MST Fri Nov 24 2017

Latest analysis shows an upper trough dropping southward across
eastern Montana and western North Dakota early this morning in
line with the surface cold front. The regional radar mosaic shows
a line of rain associated with the region of strongest low and
mid-level frontogenesis along and to the north of the surface
front. Surface observations show winds gusting around 40kts as
the front pushes across eastern Montana. The front will continue
to push southward across the forecast area this morning, followed
by very windy conditions as indicated by 3-5mb/3hr pressure rises
currently behind the front over Montana. A Wind Advisory has been
issued for much of western South Dakota into this afternoon.
Expect some light rain with the frontal passage this morning,
especially over the northern Black Hills, with dry weather this
afternoon as high pressure builds into the region.

A broad area of surface high pressure will be located over the
forecast area tonight into Saturday. The upper level ridge will
rebuild to the west on Sunday leading to another surge of warm
temperatures with highs mainly in the 60s.

The next upper level trough will split as it crosses the Rockies
on Monday with another surface cold front moving through the
forecast area. The timing of the cold front will impact
high temperatures...with near record highs possible ahead of the
front. The best forcing associated with upper trough will remain
north and south of the forecast area...although some light
precipitation is expected with the frontal passage. Dry weather
and near average temperatures are then expected for the second
half of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued At 428 AM MST Fri Nov 24 2017

A cold front passage this morning will bring gusty northwesterly
winds to much of the area. The strongest winds will be across the
northwest and west central SD plains, where some gusts to around
40 kts are expected through the early afternoon hours. Scattered
showers will move southeast across northeast WY and far western SD
this morning with the front. Local MVFR conditions are possible,
mainly over the northern Black Hills. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected through the period.


SD...Wind Advisory until 3 PM MST this afternoon for SDZ001-002-



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