Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 182314
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
414 PM MST Wed Jan 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 135 PM MST Wed Jan 18 2017

Upper level analysis has Rex Blocking pattern across the Central
and Northern Plains with large trof entering the West Coast. Skies
and mostly sunny across the area. At the surface, high pressure
resides across the central CONUS with broad but weak low pressure
across the Dakotas and eastern Wyoming and Montana. Boundary layer
flow is generally southerly, but winds near the surface across the
SD plains are light and variable, especially over the snow pack.
This is resulting in temperatures in the 50s and 60s across higher
elevations, while temperatures remain in the 40s across the SD
plains.

Tonight, weakening upper ridge remains in place with temperatures
falling into the teens across the SD plains, and in the 20s across
Northeast Wyoming and the Black Hills. Skies will remain mostly
clear.

Thursday, weak upper low shifts northeast, replaces upper ridge,
and weakens as upper trough develops over the west. Mostly sunny
skies expected again, with slow increase in clouds late in the
day. Mild temperatures continue, with highs in the upper 30s to
upper 40s. Lows Thursday night will be in the teens to mid 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Through Wednesday)
Issued at 135 PM MST Wed Jan 18 2017

A west coast upper trough will move into the region towards the
end of the week and into the weekend, bringing a gradual cooling
trend and chances for light precipitation Friday and Saturday.
Dry weather will return briefly Sunday with another upper ridge,
and then precip chances increase again early next week as another
trough moves through. The 12Z runs of the EC and GFS are vastly
different. The EC now brings the trough through as a few weaker
waves, with much less precip expected for the northern plains.
However, the GFS continues to have a strong closed low, now with a
more northerly track, bringing quite a bit of precip through the
CWA. Confidence in PoPs early next week is very low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued At 414 PM MST Wed Jan 18 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...Pojorlie
AVIATION...77


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