Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 171231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Sep 17 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. Regions 2158 (N15W85, Cao/Beta)
and 2164 (S13W47, Dac/beta) both produced a few nominal C-level flares.
Region 2164 exhibited growth in its trailer spots while most of the
other numbered regions were inactive and unremarkable. Region 2168
(S22E51, Bxo/beta) was numbered during the period, but was quiet and
stable. A new unnumbered active region is rotating onto the East limb of
the visible disk, but is still not well defined enough yet for clear
analysis. No Earth directed CMEs were observed during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate)) flare activity for the next two days (17-18 Sep).
After the departure of Regions 2157 (S15W88, Cai/beta) and 2158, only a
slight chance for an M flare will remain on day three (19 Sep), as solar
activity remains likely to be low.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels and the
greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at or near
background levels for the next three days (17-19 Sep). The greater than
2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over
the next three days (17-19 Sep).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained nominal. Solar wind speeds remained, on
average, near 380 km/s with a brief period from ~16/2000 UTC until just
before 17/0400 UTC, when it experienced a slight increase to near 400
km/s. Total field varied slightly between 4 nT and 7 nT, but leveled off
to 5 nT for the last half of the period. The Bz component saw a maximum
southward deviation to -5 nT, but became mostly positive near 5 nT after
17/0400 UTC through the end of the period. Phi angle was
predominately at a negative (towards) orientation.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at nominal levels on the
first half of day one (17 Sep), before the 12 Sep CME is expected to
arrive, causing a slight magnetic enhancement. CME effects are expected
to wane into day two (18 Sep). Slightly enhanced conditions are expected
to linger as a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH/HSS)
is expected to move into a potential geoeffective position on day three
(19 Sep).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet with an isolated unsettled period from
17/0000-0300 UTC.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet levels for the
first half of day one (17 Sep). Quiet to active levels (Below G1-Minor)
are forecast for the second half of the day due to anticipated arrival
of the 12 Sep CME. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on days two
and three (18-19 Sep) due to lingering CME effects as well as the onset
of CH/HSS effects.


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