Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 010031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Aug 01 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low levels.  The largest flare of the period
was a B5 at 31/0402 UTC from Region 2390 (S15W66, Dai/beta-gamma).
Slight decay was observed in the leader spots of Region 2390 while
slight growth occurred in the intermediate area.  Slight decay was
observed in Region 2393 (N17E34, Dao/beta).  The rest of the spotted
regions were stable.

Beginning at 31/1215 UTC, a filament eruption was observed in SDO/AIA
imagery in the NE quadrant.  A CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery
with the ejecta off the NE around 31/1737 UTC that could be associated
with the eruption.  Further analysis of the CME will be conducted as
coronagraph imagery becomes available.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain very low with a chance for C-class
activity for the next three days (01-03 Aug).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels through the
period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on day one (01 Aug) with moderate to high levels
expected on days two and three (02-03 Aug) due to high speed winds
associated with a negative polarity coronal hole. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (below
S1-Minor).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters became elevated over the period as a negative
polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) became geoeffective.
Solar wind speed gradually increased from approximately 360 km/s early
in the period to a maximum of 640 km/s at 31/1832 UTC.  Total field
decreased from 14 nT to 6 nT while the Bz component ranged from +13 nT
to -10 nT.  Phi angle was predominantly in a negative (towards) sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are anticipated to remain at elevated levels
through the period (01-03 Aug) due to continued CH HSS influence.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to CH HSS
activity.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm
levels (G1-Minor) on day one (01 Aug) due to CH HSS influence.
Unsettled to active levels are expected on day two (02 Aug) with mostly
unsettled levels on day three (03 Aug) as the high speed stream
persists.


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