Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX12 KWNP 210031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Jan 21 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at very low levels. Region 2625 (S00W35,
Hax/alpha) and Region 2626 (N08W24, Hax/alpha) both remained stable and
were void of any significant flare activity. New Region 2627 (N05E28,
Dao/beta) and Region 2628 (N12E49, Bxo/beta) were both numbered during
the period. Both regions are still developing and produced B-class flare
activity during the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels, with a chance
for C-class activity, all three days (21-23 Jan).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels with a
maximum flux of 2,979 pfu observed at 20/1650 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux continued at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to
high levels on days one through three (21-23 Jan) following elevated
solar wind speeds associated with the positive polarity CH. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected
the continued influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind
speeds began the period near 585 km/s, reached a peak of 602 km/s at
20/0205 UTC, and finished the period near 525 km/s. Total field strength
ranged between 2-5 nT while the Bz component was variable between +4 to
-3 nT. The phi angle remained in a predominately positive sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to begin a gradual decline to more
nominal levels over the next three days (21-23 Jan) as CH HSS influence
subsides.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels due to CH HSS
effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
days one and two (21-22 Jan) as CH HSS influence slowly tapers off.
Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day three (23 Jan).


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