Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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FXXX12 KWNP 041231

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 May 04 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2541 (N04E46, Cro/beta)
produced a B6/Sf flare at 04/0122 UTC, despite undergoing overall
penumbral decay. Region 2535 (N07W61, Hax/alpha), Region 2536 (N15W44,
Dao/beta), and Region 2539 (N16W12, Cao/beta) all exhibited slight decay
and were quiet throughout the period. An area of enhanced plage was
observed rotating around the east limb near N10, likely old active
Region 2529 (N10, L=344) returning to the visible disk. This area was
responsible for several low-level B-class flares during the period. No
Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for
C-class flares on day one (04 May) increasing to likely on days two and
three (05-06 May) due to the return of old active Region 2529 (N10,
L=344) on 04 May.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, reaching a
maximum flux reading of 4,006 pfu at 03/1550 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels all three days of the forecast period (04-06 May). The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected a
slightly enhanced solar wind environment through the first half of the
period. Solar wind began the period near 540 km/s, total field averaged
near 5 nT, Bz varied between +/- 4 nT, and phi angle remained in a
slightly positive orientation. Around 03/2100 UTC, winds decreased to
average near 450 km/s, total field decreased to average near 4 nT, Bz
remained variable with a trend towards a more positive orientation, and
the phi angle rotated into a negative orientation, all indicating a
likely return to background conditions.

The solar wind environment is expected to remain near background
conditions all three days of the forecast period (04-06 May).


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels throughout the summary period.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet conditions all
three days of the forecast period (04-06 May). is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.