Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 010031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Sep 01 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. The largest solar event of the period was a C7
flare at 31/1211 UTC from Region 2149 (N09W63, Dkc/beta). Region 2149
produced multiple C-class flares and showed consolidation in its
follower spots. Region 2152 (S16E15, Dac/beta-gamma) provided a C1/Sf
flare at 31/1611 UTC and displayed signs of separation between its
leader and follower spots. Region 2153 (S11W12, Cro/beta) was reported
as plage on yesterdays solar region summary but underwent spot group
reemergence during the period. Region 2151 (S07W34, Cso/beta) lacked
significant flare production and developed follower spots to become
classified as a bipolar group. Region 2150 (S14W46, Hsx/alpha) was
stable and unremarkable. There were no Earth-directed coronal mass
ejections (CMSs) observed during the reporting period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class
flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) over the next three days (01-03 Sep) with
Regions 2149 and 2152 being the likely sources.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period, with a maximum value of 1,342 pfu
observed at 31/1720 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to high
levels for the next three days (01-03 Sep). The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to persist at background levels for the next
three days (01-03 Sep).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters at ACE were indicative of a continued coronal
hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) solar wind regime. Solar wind speeds
began the period at 400 km/s, achieved a high value of 481 km/s at
31/2158 UTC, and reported period-ending values near 435 km/s. IMF total
field values (Bt) were steady ranging between 3 and 7 nT while Bz
reached a maximum southward extent of -7 nT. The phi angle was
predominately steady in a positive (away) sector with brief periods of
transition to a negative (toward) midway through the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced for the next three
days (01-03 Sep).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels for
day one (01 Sep) due to continued CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on days two and three (02-03 Sep) as CH HSS
influence begins to subside.


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