National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXXX12 KWNP 301230
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Jan 30 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at moderate levels with a pair of M-class
flares originating from Region 2268 (S10W25, Fkc/beta-gamma).  The first
was a M2 flare at 30/0044 UTC followed by a long duration M1 flare at
30/0536 UTC.  Regions 2276 (S07E05, Bxo/beta) and 2277 (N08E53,
Fkc/beta-gamma) were also responsible for multiple C-class flares
including a C8/1n at 29/2347 UTC from Region 2277.  No apparent
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO coronagraph imagery
from these events.  Consolidation was observed in Region 2271 (N17W52,
Dac/beta-gamma), while slight decay was noted in the intermediate areas
of Regions 2268 and 2271.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) with a chance for X-class flaring (R3-Strong or greater)
activity over the next three days (30 Jan-01 Feb). The most likely
source for any enhanced flare activity are Regions 2268 and 2277 due to
their large size and complex magnetic structures.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 228 pfu at 29/1650 UTC.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained
slightly enhanced around 1 pfu.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is forecast
to be at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (30-31 Jan) with
moderate to high levels possible on day three (01 Feb) due to coronal
hole influence.  There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton flux
reaching S1-Minor or above levels for the forecast period (30 Jan-01
Feb) as Region 2268 continues to rotate into a better connected
location.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to be agitated with solar wind speeds
ranging from 356 km/s to 449 km/s.  Total field ranged from 1 nT to 11
nT while the Bz component was variable between +9 nT and -8 nT.  Phi
angle was mostly negative (towards).

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced over the next
three days (30 Jan-01 Feb). Additional agitations in solar wind
parameters are expected late on day one to early on day two as a
southern polar coronal hole extension moves into geoeffective position.
Solar wind speeds could potentially reach the 550 km/s to 650 km/s
range.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.

.Forecast...
Quiet to minor storm levels (NOAA Scale G1) are expected on days one and
two (30-31 Jan) as the large extension off the southern crown polar
coronal hole moves into a geoeffective position. By day three (01 Feb),
mostly quiet to active conditions are expected.