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000
FXXX12 KWNP 030030
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Mar 03 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels.  Region 2290 (N22W91, Hsx/Alpha)
produced four (R1-Minor) flares ranging between M1 - M4 in magnitude.
In addition to the R1 events, Region 2290 produced numerous low and
mid-level C-class flares this period. The largest event was a M4 at
02/1931 UTC. Preliminary and limited LASCO imagery suggests that a
coronal mass ejection (CME) occurred with the M4, however based on
source location alone, a geoeffective transient is unlikely from this
event. More information will follow after more data becomes available
for proper and complete analysis. Numerous other CMEs were observed in
associated with flare activity from Region 2290 but initial analysis
indicates that none were Earth-directed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity on day one (03 Mar) as Region 2290
exits the northwestern limb.  Solar activity is likely to be low on
days two and three (04-05 Mar).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels this period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal
levels for day one (03 Mar) with moderate levels likely and a chance for
high levels on days two and three (04-05 Mar) in response to the current
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects and enhanced solar wind
environment. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist
at background levels over the next three days (03-05 Mar).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters at the ACE spacecraft remained indicative of
continued negative polarity CH HSS influence. Solar wind velocities
increased from 420 km/s to a high of 697 km/s. IMF total field values
increased from 6 nT to 15 nT, before waning steady to near 5 nT. Bz
reached a maximum southward component of -11 nT. The phi angle remained
steady in a negative (toward) solar sector configuration throughout the
period.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced for days one
and two (03-04 Mar) as CH HSS persists.  Solar wind parameters are
forecast to return to near-background levels for day three (05 Mar) as
CH HSS influences wane.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic
storming levels, due to CH HSS effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is forecast to decrease to a peak of active levels
late for day one (03 Mar). Unsettled to active conditions are expected
again for day two (04 Mar) as CH HSS influences persist. Unsettled
levels are expected for day three (05 Mar) with the anticipated
transition towards a return to an ambient solar wind regime.