Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 080031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Dec 08 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 2615 (S07W60,
Cso/beta) produced only low-level B-class flares, with a B3 flare at
07/1809 UTC being the largest. Analysis of the approximately 24 degree
long filament, mentioned in the prior discussion, indicated a clear
miss, well east of the Earth. No impacts are expected from this CME. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels, with a slight
chance for C-class flares all three days (08-10 Dec).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux ranged from normal to high levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue reaching
high levels all three days (08-10 Dec), and the greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected near background conditions for the first
half of the period. Just after 07/1230 UTC, total field strength began a
slow and unsteady climb from 5 nT to near 12 nT by 07/1440 UTC. The Bz
component fluctuated between 4 nT and -6 nT, wind speeds remained near
350 km/s, and the phi angle was in a mostly positive orientation. After
approximately 07/1445 UTC, the magnetic field began to fluctuate between
+/- 11 nT, with density and temperature indicating the possible arrival
of the anticipated CIR. At approximately 07/1800 UTC, a solar sector
boundary crossing was observed as the phi angle switched from positive
to negative, total field strength increased to near 17 nT, and wind
speeds began a slow but steady increase to near 550 km/s, all likely
indications of the arrival of the CIR/CH HSS. Phi angle returned to a
positive orientation shortly after 07/2100 UTC but settled back to a
negative sector around 07/2300 UTC while total field slowly decreased
back to near 10 nT by the end of the period.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to reflect the enhancements
caused by the negative, polar-connected CH HSS on day one (08 Dec).
Enhanced solar wind parameters are expected to continue through day two
and early into day three (09-10 Dec) as CH HSS effects persist.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
Mostly unsettled to active conditions, with isolated periods of G1-Minor
storm levels, are expected on day one (08 Dec) due to initial CIR
effects, and subsequent effects associated with the CIR/CH HSS. Day two
(09 Dec) should see unsettled to active conditions continue, with
isolated G1-Minor storm levels likely for the first half of the day. By
day three (10 Dec), conditions are expected to return to quiet to
unsettled levels, with isolated active periods as the CH HSS effects
begin to diminish.


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