Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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FXXX12 KWNP 060031

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Oct 06 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low for the period. Region 2427 (N18W58,
Cao/beta), the sole numbered sunspot region on the solar disk, did not
produce any significant flare activity and showed signs of penumbral
loss in its trailer spots. A coronal mass ejection (CME) off of the
northwest limb, first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 05/1724 UTC,
appeared to be a backsided event and does not contain an Earth-directed
component. No additional CMEs were detected in available satellite
imagery during the period.

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
flares for the forecast period (06-08 Oct).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels during
the period, reaching a high value of 1,899 pfu at 05/1310 UTC. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected be at normal to
high levels on days one and two of the forecast period (06-07 Oct).
Electron flux values should decrease to normal to moderate levels with
the anticipated arrival of a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS)
early on day three (08 Oct). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background (Below S1-Minor) levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters began the period slightly enhanced but displayed a
slow taper towards background conditions by the end of the period. Solar
wind speeds showed a similar decline, starting the period near 500 km/s
and closing out at approximately 440 km/s. Total field strength (Bt)
ranged between 3 and 9nT while the Bz component reached a maximum
southward deflection of -7nT. The phi angle remained in a steady
positive (away from the Sun) orientation.

Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at background levels on
days one and two (06-07 Oct). Day three (08 Oct), should see the arrival
of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. An increase in solar wind
parameters is expected in response to this solar feature.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm (G1) levels due to
substorming and prolonged negative Bz.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a
chance for isolated active conditions, on days one and two (06-07 Oct).
Day three (08 Oct), should see the arrival of a co-rotating interaction
region (CIR) and subsequent CH HSS. Active to minor storm (G1) levels
are expected, with a slight chance for major storm (G2) levels. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.