Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 301230
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 May 30 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at very low levels.  Region 2357 (N09E39,
Bxo/beta) underwent minor changes in spot layout, but was generally
stable and inactive. Region 2356 (S16E40), Cso/beta) gained a bipolar
spot and despite its simple dipole magnetic field, the neutral line had
some brief increased magnetic shear through the spot group as noted in
SDO/HMI magnetograms, that likely aided in the regions production of a
pair of weak B-class flares.

An active prominence region (APR) was observed along the NE limb in
SDO/AIA 304 imagery. The APR displayed mostly lateral material movement
and transfer, but no eruption was observed and the APR was quietly
reabsorbed.

A 7 degree long filament faded away from the vicinity of Region 2357.
The disappearing solar filament (DSF) was centered at approximately
N09E60 and appeared to fade away with no eruptive signatures noted in
SDO/AIA, GONG/H-alpha or SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with an increasing
chance for C-class activity over the next three days (30 May-01 Jun) due
to the return of old region 2339 (N13, L=129) on or about 31 May.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels this
period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal levels
for the forecast period (30 May-01 Jun).  The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast
period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained slightly enhanced above background levels
during the period.  Solar wind speed was variable and ranged from
approximately 360 km/s to 425 km/s with a brief increase to near 450
km/s between 29/2100 to 29/2200 UTC. Total magnetic field strength
decreased from about 8 nT at the beginning of the period down to about 4
nT around 29/1600 UTC and became fairly steady between 5 nT to 6 nT
afterwards. The Bz component fluctuated between positive and negative
deviations with a maximum southward deflection of about -6 nT. The phi
angle was primarily in a positive (away from the Sun) sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at or near nominal levels
for the forecast period (30 May-01 Jun).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at mostly quiet levels for
the forecast period (30 May-01 Jun).



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