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000
FXXX12 KWNP 121231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Mar 12 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity again reached moderate levels. Region 1996 (N14W71,
Eac/beta-gamma) was responsible for the largest flare of the period, an
impulsive M2 flare at 12/1105 UTC. This region also produced a C6/Sf at
11/2156 UTC, as well as a C7/Sf at 12/0757 UTC. Region 1996 continued to
show signs of growth as well as maintaining mix polarities near the
leader spots, though its proximity to the limb is making definite
analysis difficult. Region 2002 (S19E17, Ekc/beta-gamma) also
contributed to the flare activity, producing a C9/Sf flare at 11/1627
UTC, a C2/Sf flare at 11/2357 UTC, and a C1/Sf flare at 12/0251 UTC. The
delta magnetic configuration in this spot was not evident at the time of
this report, but has faded in and out over the past 24 hours. This
region continues to grow and is currently over 400 millionths in overall
areal coverage. Region 2003 (N06W32, Dac/beta) exhibited modest growth
over the period, yet remained fairly inactive. New Region 2005 (N11E74,
Hsx/alpha) was numbered over night. The other two numbered regions
showed signs of decay during the period. There were no Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections detected in satellite imagery during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a
slight chance for an X-class flare (R3 Strong) during the forecast
period (12-14 Mar).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to remain at normal levels during the forecast period (12-14 Mar). The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to remain at background levels for the next three days (12-14 Mar).


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, continued to
reflect background conditions. Wind speeds averaged near 310 km/s for
the first half of the period, then began steadily decreasing, ending the
period under 280 km/s. Total IMF (Bt) ranged between 3 and 6 nT, while
the Bz component of the IMF ranged between +/-4 nT. The phi angle began
the period in a positive (away) orientation, but quickly rotated into a
negative (toward) solar sector, where it remained for the rest of the
period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind speed is expected to remain at background conditions during
the forecast period (12-14 Mar).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels
throughout the forecast period (12-14 Mar).