Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 291231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Aug 29 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low.  Region 2146 (N08, L=347) produced a pair of C1
flares at 28/1520 and 29/0226 UTC and continued to rotate behind the
west limb this period.

Region 2149 (N10W29, Cso/beta) showed rapid development south of its
main spot area late in the period.  New Region 2153 (S11E25, Axx/alpha)
was numbered this period but was otherwise unremarkable.  The other
regions on the visible disk were either stable or in decay.

No coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed this period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) flare activity on day one (29 Aug) as Region
2146 continues to rotate behind the west limb.  Solar activity is likely
to be low on days two and three (30-31 Aug) with a slight chance for
M-class flare activity on day two (30 Aug).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the next three days (29-31 Aug) and the greater than
10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels for the
next three days (29-31 Aug).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters at ACE were indicative of coronal hole high speed
stream (CH HSS) effects in addition to waning CME influence.  Solar wind
speeds increased from initial values near 350 km/s to end-of-period
values near 440 km/s.  IMF total field values reached a maximum of 11 nT
and Bz reached a maximum southward component of -10 nT.  The phi angle
was steady in a positive (away) sector orientation throughout the
period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at elevated levels for the
next three days (29-31 Aug) due to continued CH HSS influence.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm conditions early on day one (29 Aug) due to CH HSS
influence and waning CME effects.  Quiet to unsettled levels are
expected on day two (30 Aug)  with unsettled to active levels on day
three (31 Aug) due to continued CH HSS influence.


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