Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS

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FGUS65 KSTR 071903
ESGCO

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UT


                      SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL
             FOR THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN WITHIN COLORADO

                         APRIL 7, 2016

The 2016 spring runoff flood potential due to snowmelt is near normal at this
time for the Yampa/White, Upper Colorado mainstem, Gunnison, Dolores and
San Juan basins.  It should be emphasized that snow typically accumulates into
April, therefore conditions may change before the runoff begins.

Currently, no sites are forecast to peak at or above the flood flow. A few sites
are forecast to peak above bankfull at the 10% exceedance levels but, in general,
below average peaks are expected across western Colorado.  Keep in mind specific
forecast procedures and flood flow levels do not exist for all streams.

March basin averaged precipitation varied widely across the basin.  Much
above average amounts were observed in the headwaters of the Yampa and Upper
Colorado river basins at 135% of average, while further west in those basins
precipitation was near to slightly below average.  Below average precipitation
occurred in the Gunnison River Basin with overall values near 85% of average.
Precipitation was much below normal in the Dolores and San Juan basins with
65% and 50% of average, respectively.  Water Year precipitation remains near
average in the northern basins, but the southern basins are beginning to
approach below average values.

April 1st basin averaged snow water equivalent also varies greatly, mirroring
the March precipitation pattern.  The Yampa and Upper Colorado river basins are
right near median overall, although some individual SNOTEL sites are above or
below depending on where they are in the basin.  The Gunison Basin is slightly
below normal at 90% of median, while the San Juan and Dolores basins were at
80% of median as of April 1 and have already experienced some snowmelt at
higher elevations.

Although spring temperatures affect the pattern of snowmelt runoff and
consequently the magnitude of peak flows, peak flows also roughly correspond
to volumetric flows. It is also important to keep in mind that an extended
period of much above normal temperatures or heavy rainfall during the melt
period can cause or exacerbate flooding problems in any year.

A list of specific spring peak flow forecasts are available at:
http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/rmap/peak/peaklist.php

A map of the current spring peak flow forecasts is available at:
http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/lmap/lmap.php?interface=peak

MEAN DAILY PEAK FLOW FORECASTS IN CFS

LOCATION                   FLOOD     FCST   FORECAST FLOWS
                            FLOW     DATE      90%    75%    50%    25%    10%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YAMPA - STEAMBOAT SPRINGS   5930 2016-04-01   2200   2500   3000   4000   5000
ELK - MILNER, NR            5718 2016-04-01   2500   3000   3500   4000   5000
YAMPA - MAYBELL, NR        21241 2016-04-01   6500   7500   8000   9000  11500
LITTLE SNAKE - LILY, NR     -999 2016-04-01   2300   2600   3300   4000   5000
YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK     20685 2016-04-01   8500  10000  11000  12500  15500
WHITE - MEEKER, NR          8597 2016-04-01   1900   2200   2400   2700   3200
SNAKE - MONTEZUMA, NR       1850 2016-04-01    200    250    300    400    450
TENMILE CK - FRISCO, N TE   1550 2016-04-01    450    550    600    750    900
STRAIGHT CK - LASKEY GULC    440 2016-04-01     50     60     80     95    115
EAGLE - GYPSUM, BLO         6500 2016-04-01   2000   2200   2700   3500   4900
COLORADO - DOTSERO, NR     17000 2016-04-01   4500   5000   6500   8500  13000
CRYSTAL - REDSTONE, NR, A   3100 2016-04-01   1000   1250   1500   1750   2200
ROARING FORK - GLENWOOD S  17000 2016-04-01   3000   3500   4200   5200   6800
COLORADO - CAMEO, NR       26000 2016-04-01   8500   9500  12500  16000  23000
EAST - ALMONT               3170 2016-04-01    950   1100   1200   1600   1900
NF GUNNISON - SOMERSET, N  13100 2016-04-01   1700   2100   2400   2900   3200
SURFACE CK - CEDAREDGE      1320 2016-04-01    100    130    180    250    300
GUNNISON - GRAND JUNCTION  19470 2016-04-01   7500   8000   8000   8200   8500
DOLORES - RICO, BLO         1750 2016-04-01    650    740    790    920   1060
DOLORES - DOLORES           7130 2016-04-01   1800   2000   2400   2600   2900
SAN MIGUEL - PLACERVILLE,   3190 2016-04-01    880    990   1100   1130   1450
COLORADO - CO-UT STATE LI  46000 2016-04-01  14000  16000  19000  24000  32000
SAN JUAN - PAGOSA SPRINGS   5000 2016-04-01   1500   1650   1850   2100   2400
ANIMAS - DURANGO           10200 2016-04-01   2400   2800   3300   3800   4200
ANIMAS - FARMINGTON         9110 2016-04-01   2400   2900   3500   4000   4300
MANCOS - MANCOS, NR         2970 2016-04-01    100    150    250    300    450


CBRFC/Alcorn




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