Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS28 KWNS 252118
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0317 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VALID 271200Z - 031200Z

THE LONG-WAVE PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTING
THE NERN CONUS...WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE SFC REFLECTION WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSING NE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH A TRANSIENT LOW RAPIDLY MOVING TO THE E ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS AND MIDWEST. BEHIND THIS LOW...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE NRN STATES.

WITH RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW SITUATED ACROSS THE CONUS...TROUGHING IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...DEEP DIURNAL MIXING...AND PERIODS OF
ENHANCED LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL FOSTER BREEZY AND DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PROBABILITY OF
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS IS LOW. AS SUCH...NO PROBABILISTIC
DELINEATIONS ARE NEEDED. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CONUS...THE ZONAL FLOW WILL GENERALLY SUPPORT A SFC PATTERN IN WHICH
AREAS OF LOW RH FAIL TO OVERLAP AREAS OF STRONG WINDS.

...SRN CA...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES LIKELY IN THE COASTAL RANGES AND
TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS THROUGH D4/FRI-D5/SAT. WITH A RETURN TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THOUGH...A WEAKENING SFC PRES
GRADIENT WILL AID IN SUSTAINED WINDS STAYING BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. NONETHELESS...AREAS OF ELEVATED CONDITIONS SEEM POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ENHANCED SW FLOW ON D5/SAT AHEAD OF AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH MAY ALSO LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WX CONCERNS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS WHERE DRY AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO
DEPART. PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS ARE NOT NECESSARY HOWEVER...AS
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE UNLIKELY.

SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN BY D6/SUN-D7/MON
WILL BRING AN END TO ANY FIRE WX CONCERNS...WITH CONSIDERABLE
WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF CA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

..PICCA.. 11/25/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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