Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 292048
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

VALID 011200Z - 071200Z

SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT
BASIN ON D3/SAT AND D4/SUN AS UPPER TROUGHING DEEPENS ALONG THE W
COAST. THESE STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL AID IN DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING...WHICH ENCOURAGE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER AND GUSTY
SWLY/SLY SURFACE WINDS. RESULTING DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO
PRODUCE DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AND WINDY
SURFACE CONDITIONS WITH DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN A FIRE WEATHER
THREAT ACROSS THE NW GREAT BASIN ON D3/SAT AND ERN/SERN NV AND
ADJACENT E-CNTRL CA ON D4/SUN. MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS INCREASED
DURING THE PAST FEW RUNS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NV. AS A RESULT...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH TO DELINEATE A
70-PERCENT/CRITICAL AREA ACROSS SRN NV.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON D5/MON
WITH ACCOMPANYING STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. GUSTY WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS MOST OF AZ AND NM BUT CURRENT FUEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS UNRECEPTIVE FUELS...TEMPERING THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
IN CONTRAST...FUELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS ARE
RECEPTIVE FOR LARGE FIRE GROWTH WITH A RESULTING FIRE WEATHER THREAT
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IS ACROSS ERN CO AND ADJACENT FAR W-CNTRL KS WHERE A
70-PERCENT/CRITICAL DELINEATION WAS INTRODUCED. STRONG WLY FLOW
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...PROMOTING
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND A CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER THREAT ON D6/TUE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
D7/WED AS MODEL SOLUTIONS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT ON ITS
PROGRESSION THEREAFTER.

..MOSIER.. 09/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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