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FNUS28 KWNS 072126
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 PM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

VALID 091200Z - 151200Z

AMPLIFIED WRN CONUS RIDGE/ERN CONUS TROUGH UPPER PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH A GRADUAL
DEAMPLIFICATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WRN
CONUS RIDGE WILL LIKELY FULLY BREAKDOWN ON D7/SAT WHEN A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

...PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS /PARTICULARLY THE SRN HIGH PLAINS/ THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AS NWLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE ENHANCED
FLOW ALOFT WITH SHIFT NE OF THE REGION. AS A RESULT...THE STRENGTH
OF THE WIND SPEEDS WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTH OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH...DESPITE GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE GUIDANCE
ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN...IS UNCERTAIN BECAUSE OF MODEL
DIFFERENCES. CONFIDENCE IN A FIRE WEATHER THREAT ON D4/WED REMAINS
HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THE THREAT AREA FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE PRECLUDE ADDING ANY ADDITIONAL THREAT AREAS WITH THIS
FORECAST.

..MOSIER.. 02/07/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$


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