Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 232106
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Valid 251200Z - 311200Z

A large upper trough, extending from the upper Great Lakes
southwestward into southern CA, will likely cover much of the CONUS
at the beginning of the period (12Z Wednesday). This upper trough is
expected to gradually shift eastward while a pair of shortwave
troughs move quickly northeastward through the strong flow aloft
extending along its eastern periphery. Surface low attendant to the
lead shortwave trough will also progress northeastward towards the
upper Great Lakes while an associated cold front sweeps across the
mid/lower MS and lower OH valleys.

Fire weather conditions will likely develop within the dry and windy
post-frontal environment across portions of west and south TX. In
these areas, sustained northerly/northwesterly winds from 15 to 25
mph are expected to occur amidst RH values generally in the upper
teens and low 20s, with the strongest winds and lowest RH values
most probable across the Edwards Plateau and adjacent TX South
Plains. In these areas, recent fuel guidance suggests mostly moist
fuels with the drier fuels farther south in the Rio Grande Valley
and deep south TX. However, in these areas farther south, winds are
not expected to be as strong (generally 15-20 mph) and most guidance
currently keeps RH values above 20 percent. As result, confidence in
critical conditions remains too low to introduce a 70% delineation.

After D3/Wednesday, the upper pattern will lose amplitude on
D4/Thursday before amplifying again on D5/Friday as a shortwave
trough drops into southern CA and ridging builds across the Pacific
Northwest. Pacific Northwest upper ridging will remain in place
through the weekend with strong surface ridging also anticipated
over the Great Basin. Resulting pattern will be favorable for
offshore flow across central/southern CA, but any fire weather
concerns will be mitigated by above-average rainfall over the past
few weeks and  resultant moist fuels.

..Mosier.. 01/23/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$



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