Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 062045
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CST FRI MAR 06 2015

VALID 081200Z - 141200Z

UPPER PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD -- 12Z/SUN --
IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE SPLIT-FLOW WITH A SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER NW MEXICO AND A NRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE EWD/NEWD ACROSS TX
AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY ON D4/MON WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO NRN MEXICO AND UPPER RIDGING ALONG
THE W COAST SLOWLY SHIFTS EWD. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE BECOMES
DISSOCIATED FROM THE WLY FLOW ALOFT AND ONLY SLOWLY SHIFTS EWD/SEWD
ACROSS NRN MEXICO ON D5/WED. GIVEN THE NEARLY CUT-OFF NATURE OF THIS
SHORTWAVE...PREDICTABILITY REGARDING ITS STRENGTH AND EWD
PROGRESSION IS LOW. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
CONCERNING THE BREAKDOWN OF THE W COAST UPPER RIDGE WITH BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS SUGGESTING THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON D6/WED AS A
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW.

OVERALL...THE LACK OF EVEN MODERATELY STRONG MID/UPPER LOW FLOW IN
THE CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A VERY LOW FIRE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

..MOSIER.. 03/06/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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