Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 291640
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

VALID 291700Z - 301200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SERN NM AND W TX...

NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

..COHEN.. 04/29/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0356 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
WITHIN BROADER LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING OVER THE WRN CONUS...A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NEWD
TODAY...REACHING THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE MS VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SFC...A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SERN NM/W TX WILL DEVELOP EWD
TO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK BY LATE AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL LIKEWISE TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS W TX
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

...PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN NM AND W TX...
AN ENHANCED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN NM AND
W TX COMBINED WITH DIURNAL MIXING OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
STRONG/GUSTY WLY WINDS OF 20-35 MPH ACROSS SERN NM INTO PARTS OF W
TX. RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...
POSSIBLY REACHING VALUES AS LOW AS 5 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGER IN THE MTNS ACROSS THIS REGION. COMBINED WITH DRY
FUELS...THESE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF SERN NM AND W TX. SURROUNDING THE
CRITICAL DESIGNATION...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY FROM SRN NM EWD TO A LARGER PORTION OF W TX...ALTHOUGH FUELS
BECOME LESS RECEPTIVE WITH NWD/EWD EXTENT ACROSS THE TX SOUTH
PLAINS. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY
OCCUR THROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN
N TX...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER LIMIT THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS
THESE REGIONS.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$



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