Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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817
FNUS21 KWNS 221548
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0948 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Valid 221700Z - 231200Z

The ongoing forecast is on track with no changes needed.
Near-critical fire weather conditions remain possible this afternoon
from the southeastern Texas Panhandle into western North Texas as
15-20% RH values combine with northwesterly surface flow around 20
mph.  Slightly cooler conditions/higher RH will exist north-east of
this area in conjunction with stronger surface flow and dry fuels.

See the previous discussion below for more information.

..Cook.. 01/22/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018/

...Synopsis...
...Southern Plains...

The upper trough/closed low situated over the Plains this morning
will eject east/northeast across the mid-MS Valley to the Great
Lakes vicinity by Tuesday morning. Strong deep-layer
west/northwesterly flow on the back side of this system will persist
across the southern Plains. At the surface, low pressure near the
IA/MO border at the beginning of the period will likewise track
northeast toward the Great Lakes. A strong surface pressure gradient
on the back side of the low will remain over the central and
southern Plains, and gusty winds are expected for much of the region
through the afternoon.

While temperatures will be cooler today, with highs in the upper 40s
to mid 50s, dry conditions will persist across much of the southern
High Plains and eastward across much of TX and western OK. RH values
will range from about 15-35 percent, with the lowest RH values
across eastern NM into western TX. Furthermore, northwest winds
around 15-20 mph with higher gusts are expected. Some spotty
critical conditions are possible, but the strongest winds are not
expected to be well-aligned with critically low RH values.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$



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