Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 171652

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1052 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Valid 171700Z - 181200Z


...Southern High Plains...
Widespread elevated fire weather conditions are still anticipated
for a few hours this afternoon as increasing mid-level flow coupled
with deep boundary layer mixing and a strengthening surface pressure
gradient combine to support sustained winds from 20 to 30 mph. High
temperatures across the region will range from the mid 70s to upper
80s (15 to 25 degree above-average), supporting afternoon RH values
in from the low teens to mid 20s. Highest confidence in critical
conditions remains from east-central NM northeastward into the
central TX Panhandle. Near-critical conditions are anticipated
farther south/southwest into southern NM with slightly weaker winds
(sustained around 15 to 20 mph) precluding critical meteorological
conditions. As mentioned in the previous discussion, fuels do not
appear particularly receptive but given the strength of the winds
and the anomalously warm temperatures, a widespread elevated to
locally critical fire weather threat still exists.

..Mountains and Foothills of Southern CA...
Current onshore gradient is expected shift offshore tonight as a
front moves through the Great Basin and high surface pressure
follows in its wake. Guidance indicates that the LAX-DAG and LAX-TPH
gradients will be around -6 mb and -10 mb, respectively, by 12Z
Saturday. Gradients of this strength will likely support wind gusts
from 35-40 mph. RH values are expected to remain above critical
thresholds across most of the region but some locally elevated fire
weather conditions are still anticipated for a few hours early
Saturday morning.

..Mosier.. 11/17/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017/

Strong mid-level flow will develop across the southern Plains on
Friday as a mid-level trough quickly moves east into the central
United States. This strong mid-level flow will result in downslope
warming/drying across the southern Plains. Here, widespread
temperatures in the mid-70s to mid-80s will combine with poor
low-level moisture to result in minimum afternoon relative-humidity
values falling into the teens in some locations. These warm/dry
conditions will combine with surface-wind speeds gusting into the
20-30 mph range to support elevated-to-critical fire-weather
conditions. The most likely area for critical conditions will be
from east-central New Mexico into the central Texas Panhandle, where
surface winds around 30 mph sustained in the presence of mid-teen
relative humidity. One potential mitigating factor is that ERCs are
generally near or below the 50th percentile across the region, which
may preclude a more widespread, larger-scale fire-weather threat.

Late in the period (Saturday morning), north/north-east winds will
develop across coastal areas of southern California. These weak
Santa Ana winds may gust near 40-45 mph in wind favored areas. These
strong winds will help dry out finer fuels. However, even with the
drying, relative humidity looks to remain high enough to preclude
elevated highlights.

...Please see for graphic product...

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