Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 010636
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 AM CDT SAT OCT 01 2016

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED OVER THE CONUS ON
D2/SUN...AS A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL LOW MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL LOW ENTERS THE GREAT BASIN.  A
VERY POWERFUL JET WILL RESIDE ON THE BASE OF THE WESTERN
TROUGH...WITH A 100-KT JET MAX ENTERING CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  AT THE SURFACE...A 1004
MB SURFACE LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN EASTERN
IDAHO AND NORTHEASTERN NEVADA IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  THE ENHANCED SURFACE FLOW WILL ESCALATE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS IN DRY AREAS OF THE WEST D2/SUN AFTERNOON.

...MUCH OF NEVADA...FAR WESTERN UTAH...AND SOUTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN WILL FOSTER A SUFFICIENT
SURFACE GRADIENT FOR VERY STRONG SURFACE WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW TO DEVELOP IN MUCH OF THE REGION AFTER MIDDAY...WITH
30-45 MPH SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
NEVADA...AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER IN SURROUNDING AREAS.  THIS SURFACE
FLOW WILL OCCUR AMIDST A VERY DRY AIRMASS...WITH WIDESPREAD 10-15
PERCENT RH VALUES YIELDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL CONDITIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA D2/SUN AFTERNOON.

FARTHER NORTHWEST...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA MAY BE BRIEFLY
REACHED AS 20-30 MPH WESTERLY FLOW AND A DRY AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN NEVADA.  THIS THREAT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
BRIEF...HOWEVER...AS COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES /AND
CORRESPONDINGLY HIGHER RH/ WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION.

...COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL EXIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE
REGION.  THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THIS FLOW WILL RESULT IN A
DRYING AIRMASS IN A FEW AREAS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SANTA
BARBARA...VENTURA...AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.  RH VALUES WILL
APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR BRIEF PERIODS DURING THE DAY.  AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DELINEATION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED TO ADDRESS
THIS THREAT.

..COOK.. 10/01/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$


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