Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 230759

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z


A deep cyclone will track from portions of the Central States to the
Great Lakes region, with an associated cold front advancing
eastward/southeastward across portions of the South-Central and
Southeastern States. An influx of drier air into parts of the
South-Central States behind the front, amidst enhanced winds, will
result in fire-weather potential across portions of the southern
Great Plains and westward across southern NM.

...Portions of the southern Great Plains and westward across
southern NM...
Diurnal heating and areas of downslope-flow-enhanced warming are
forecast to offset modest cold advection behind the cold front --
supporting diurnal RH reductions. The influx of drier post-frontal
air will also support these RH reductions. Meanwhile, enhanced
low/midlevel flow trailing to the west-southwest of the deeper
cyclone will support enhanced surface winds, as vertical mixing
strengthens during the afternoon.

Within the Critical area, westerly to northwesterly winds of 20-25
mph are forecast to combine with RH around 9-15 percent amidst dry
fuels in support of critical fire-weather conditions.

Across the surrounding Elevated area -- over a large part of TX and
southern OK, extending into parts of eastern/southern NM -- westerly
to northerly winds of 15-20 mph are expected. These winds are
forecast to combine with RH from the lower/middle teens to the
middle 20s (lowest readings west and south, highest readings
northeast). While briefly critical fire-weather conditions could
occur -- especially across parts of the middle/lower Rio Grande
Valley region -- the general tendency for stronger flow aloft to
advance east of the lower RH should minimize the critical
fire-weather risk.

..Cohen.. 02/23/2017

...Please see for graphic product...

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