Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FNUS76 KLOX 161338
FWSLOX

Spot Forecast for CREEK...ANF
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
538 AM PST Sat Dec 16 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 0600 PST on December 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PST
SUNDAY...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 PM PST SUNDAY...

.DISCUSSION...An upper level disturbance will move through the region
this morning and this afternoon. This will cause increasing upper
level wind support and cold air advection that will bring
strengthening north to northeast winds across the mountains and
adjacent coastal foothills later today into this evening. Winds will
then shift out of the northeast to a more traditional Santa Ana wind
direction tonight through Sunday. Gusts of 35 to 45 mph will be
common with locally higher gusts Sunday morning. The combination of
these gusty winds with humidities generally ranging between 10 and
15 percent will result in critical Red Flag conditions.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Max temperature.....68-71.
Min humidity........12-18 percent.
Eye level winds.....Variable 1 to 3 mph becoming northeast 4 to 6 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Variable 2 to 5 mph becoming northeast 8 to 12 mph
                    late in the afternoon.

 Ridgetop...........Southwest 6 to 12 mph early, then becoming
                    variable 3 to 5 mph through noon. Winds then
                    becoming northeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts to
                    35 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......AOB 1000 ft AGL increasing to 7500-8500 ft AGL
                    early in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....North around 10 mph early...becoming NE 15 mph
                    in the afternoon.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
Min temperature.....50-55.
Max humidity........25-35 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northeast winds 6 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
                    through midnight, then increasing 10 to 13 mph with
                    gusts to 20 mph after midnight.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northeast winds 12 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph
                    through midnight, then increasing 20 to 25 mph with
                    gusts to 40 mph after midnight.
 Ridgetop...........Northeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph.
Mixing height.......6000-7000 early ft AGL decreasing to AOB 1000 ft AGL
                    overnight.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 25 mph.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Max temperature.....59-62.
Min humidity........15-20 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 23 mph
                    in the morning, decreasing to 8 to 10 with gusts to
                    18 mph during the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph
                    in the morning, decreasing to 15 to 20 with gusts
                    to 35 mph during the afternoon.
 Ridgetop...........Northeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph
                    early, decreasing to 20 to 25 mph with gusts to
                    35 mph.
Mixing height.......AOB 1000 ft AGL early increasing to 6500ft AGL in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 30 mph.

$$
Forecaster...KAPLAN
Requested by...Kristen Allison
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1719849.4/LOX
.EMAIL kristenallison@fs.fed.us



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