Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 241617
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1017 AM CST FRI NOV 24 2017

                VALID NOVEMBER 24 THROUGH NOVEMBER 29

...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE WGRFC
FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A very pleasant holiday weekend is in store as dry and mild
conditions prevail across the region. Temperatures this morning are
on track to be a few degrees cooler than normal.  A weak, dry cold
front passage will occur on Saturday, however no rainfall is expected
with this cold front.

Sunday will only be a few degrees cooler than Saturday as the front
will quickly dissipate due to the relatively weak character of the
shortwave responsible for the front and the building ridge to our
west.  A southerly flow will quickly return by Monday as the ridge
traverses Texas, allowing high temperatures to climb above seasonal
normals through Tuesday. Another shortwave disturbance will move
east off of the Rockies on Tuesday afternoon and evening pushing a
weak front through the region on Wednesday morning.  This frontal
passage will be the next best shot at rain over the next 7 days with
no more than a slight chance. Moisture availability will be the main
issue as our dry high pressure air mass stays in place over the next
several days to our west.

Long range models advertise a deep low approaching from the Pacific
Northwest by the following weekend.  However, no significant
rainfall is expected over the next 5 days.


                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Saturday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch
or less are forecast for the upper Rio Grande in south central
Colorado.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas shows the area considered
to be abnormally dry is around 40% with around 17% of the state
experiencing moderate drought.  In New Mexico, 19% of the state is
having abnormally dry conditions, with 2% in moderate drought
conditions (over the far western portions). With the continued dry
weather pattern the WGRFC area is experiencing, the areas of drought
will likely increase the rest of this month.  Due to the drying
soils and the lack of forecast significant rainfall, runoff is not
expected over the next 5 days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
All rivers across the WGRFC area are below criteria levels and are
expected to remain below criteria levels for the next 5 days.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

CAZIER


$$





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