Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 061656
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1056 AM CST TUE DEC 6 2016

                VALID DECEMBER 6 THROUGH DECEMBER 11

...DRIER AND COLDER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

The deep low pressure system responsible for producing beneficial
rainfall to much of Texas has exited the region bringing an end
to the rainfall across the WGRFC area. Some isolated moderate
flooding along with some minor flooding is forecast to continue
over the next couple of days.

A strong cold front is making its way across Texas today. This
front may create some light rainfall over deep south Texas
tomorrow into Thursday. Temperatures behind the cold front will
plummet, bringing the coldest temperatures of the season thus far.

A ridge of high pressure will move over most of the WGRFC area on
Friday, so most of the precipitation will end, while the cold
temperatures remain in place. A minor upper air disturbance is
forecast to move across Colorado late Friday into Saturday which
may produce some precipitation there. Elsewhere, dry weather is
expected Friday into Saturday. Temperatures rebound slightly for
the upcoming weekend.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50
of an inch are forecast from southeast Texas.

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Friday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

The rainfall early in November helped to improve (slightly) the
ongoing drought conditions across the WGRFC area. In Texas, the
areas considered to be abnormally dry is at 34%. Also,14% of
Texas is experiencing moderate drought conditions and 3% is in
severe drought, primarily over extreme east Texas. In New Mexico,
around 54% of the state is experiencing abnormally dry conditions,
with 5% remaining in moderate drought. The heaviest rainfall over
the past few days fell over east central and southeast Texas, which
also happened to be the drier areas of Texas.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...San Antonio Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Heavy rainfall in recent days in the San Antonio area has
caused widespread rises and flooding in the San Antonio River
basin. The flood wave is working its way down the rivers. Near
Falls City, the San Antonio River (FACT2) and Cibolo Creek (FCCT2)
have both crested. The San Antonio River at State Highway 72 near
Runge (SRRT2) continues to rise within moderate flood levels, and
should experience another foot of rise today before cresting this
evening. The San Antonio River near Goliad (GLIT2) will be
cresting mid week in the 29 to 29.5 foot range.

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Heavy rains in the Guadalupe River basin over the past several days
have caused rises along portions of the Guadalupe. Several sites in
the middle and lower part of the basin have reached or are forecast
to reach action stage, but two locations are expected to reach flood
stage from this event.  The Guadalupe River at Victoria (VICT2) will
reach flood stage within the next few days, and the Guadalupe River
at DuPont Plant near Bloomington (DUPT2) is expected to reach
moderate flood levels by the middle of the week due to routed flows.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Recent rainfall has caused overbank to minor flood levels across
parts of the Neches River basin. If additional rainfall occurs it
would aggravate the existing flooding, but heavy rainfall is not
expected over the next five days.

...San Jacinto Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Heavy rainfall has caused some minor runoff events in the San
Jacinto basin.  Most notably Lake Creek at Sendera Road (FCWT2)
near the Conroe area, the East Fork of the San Jacinto River
(CLDT2), and the West Fork San Jacinto near Humble (HMMT2),
are above/will rise above action stage.

...San Bernard Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The San Bernard River near Boling (BOLT2) crested above action
stage overnight. Tidal effects will continue downstream near
Sweeny.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
With moderate rains in portions of the lower Brazos, Davidson
Creek near Lyons (LYNT2) has experienced two crests above
action stage. The Brazos River at Richmond (RMOT2) will remain
near action stage throughout the coming week.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Widespread rainfall fell over central, southeast and far east
Texas over the past few days. Much of this rainfall was beneficial,
especially in eastern Texas where drought conditions had been
worsening in recent weeks. Heavy rainfall is not expected over
the next five days, so any additional rises from recent rainfall
should be slow and mostly minor.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

AUSTIN-SMITH


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