Hydrometeorological Discussion
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AGUS74 KFWR 241603
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1051 AM CDT MON APR 24 2017

                   VALID APRIL 24 THROUGH APRIL 29

...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF WGRFC AREA TODAY,
THEN A COUPLE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

An upper air closed low pressure system is located over eastern
Alabama this morning.  Behind this departing low, a ridge of high
pressure has developed and is moving over Texas.  With the exception
of some showers over Mexico and residual showers behind the old
cold front over deep south Texas, dry weather occurred the past 24
hours. As the ridge slides eastward the dry weather will continue
over our region through this evening.

By Tuesday a more zonal upper air flow will develop.  As upper
disturbances ripple through this flow they may generate some light
precipitation over northwest New Mexico and Colorado Tuesday into
Wednesday morning.  Then on Tuesday night one of the upper
disturbances will deepen and move across northern New Mexico.  This
storm will move across north Texas and Oklahoma Wednesday. While most
of the rain from this disturbance is forecast from Colorado and the
Texas panhandle into Oklahoma, a few showers and thunderstorms may
develop as far south as extreme northern and all of northeast Texas
into Louisiana by Wednesday evening.  The storm will exit the
region before Thursday morning.

After a mostly dry day Thursday, a stronger upper air disturbance is
forecast to move over Utah on Friday.  Along with some precipitation
over the western parts of the WGRFC area, there may be a better
chance for showers and thunderstorms over Texas by Saturday morning
as this storm moves slowly east.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Tuesday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over southern
Colorado and extreme northern New Mexico.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an
inch are forecast for portions of extreme northern New Mexico into
much of Colorado and the northern Texas panhandle.  The heaviest
rainfall is forecast north of the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less
than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over parts of east and northeast
Texas, the northern half of New Mexico, the Texas panhandle and the
remainder of Colorado.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of
an inch are forecast for the northeast quarter of Texas and the
northern two thirds of Louisiana.  The heaviest rainfall is forecast
northeast of the WGRFC area north of the Arklatex.  MAP amounts of
less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over roughly the northeast
third of Texas, Louisiana, the Texas panhandle into the northern
third of New Mexico and most of Colorado.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an
inch are forecast for portions of extreme north and northeast Texas,
as well as over the northwestern third of New Mexico and Colorado.
The heaviest rainfall is forecast north of the WGRFC area over
Oklahoma.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast
over roughly the northern half of Texas, most of Louisiana, and the
northwestern two thirds of New Mexico.

Soil moisture conditions continue to show improvement due to recent
rainfall events. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas shows the
area considered to be abnormally dry at 10%. Also, 2% of Texas was
experiencing moderate drought, with nothing in severe drought. In
New Mexico the Drought Monitor shows 46% of the state experiencing
abnormally dry conditions, with nothing in the moderate drought
category or worse categories.  The rainfall forecast will not be
heavy enough to produce significant runoff in the WGRFC area the next
5 days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Higher than normal flows are expected to continue over the Brazos and
Rio Grande river systems into this week. Precipitation is forecast
across southern Colorado and northeast Texas during the next 5 days.
WGRFC will continue to monitor this situation.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

STORY

$$





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