Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 251623
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1123 AM CDT MON SEP 25 2017

               VALID SEPTEMBER 25 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 30

...SIGNIFICANT RAIN FORECAST FOR CENTRAL WEST TEXAS THIS WEEK WITH
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 9 INCHES...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A cold front will impact the weather for west Texas today and for
the next few days. This slow moving front will continue to interact
with a deep moisture plume from Tropical Storm Pilar. As this
moisture moves along the cold front, expect widespread showers and
thunderstorms with locally heavy rain. The rainfall from this past
weekend was enough to trigger some localized flash flooding. Rainfall
totals over the past 24 hours were in the 0.50 to 1.50 inch range, in
addition to the rainfall that occurred on Saturday into Sunday.

As this front slowly  moves eastward through this week, rainfall
amounts will continue to accumulate resulting in significant
runoff which will impact larger mainstem rivers in addition to
small stream flash flooding.

For today, expect a slight risk for severe weather in New Mexico,
and western Texas. This weather will continue to slowly spread
eastward over the next few days resulting in the chance for
thunderstorms with embedded heavy downpours. Any heavy rain will
result in the potential for further flash flooding in eastern New
Mexico and western Texas.

The cold front becomes almost stationary before exiting the south
coast of Texas by the end of the week.

Hurricane Maria is now a Category 1 storm on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale and continues to move towards the N at 7 mph.
This system is not expected to impact any portion of the WGRFC
region.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of  0.25 to 3.00 inches are forecast for most of the
western half of Texas including the Panhandle and southeastern
New Mexico. The heaviest is expected for central west Texas.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 5.00
inches are forecast for most of the western half of Texas with the
heaviest expected for central west Texas.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 3.00
inches are forecast for west central and southwest Texas.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1.50
inches are forecast for west central and southwest Texas.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas shows the area considered
to be abnormally dry is around 21%, and only 3% of Texas is
experiencing moderate drought conditions. In New Mexico, none of
the state is experiencing abnormally dry conditions.  Drought relief
for western and southwestern Texas is likely with the forecast
rainfall. There will also be a potential for runoff and flash
flooding with this rainfall as well.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Toledo Bend Reservoir is currently releasing water for power
generation.  This is causing minor flood levels on the lower Sabine
River near Deweyville (DWYT2).

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Heavy rainfall is forecast over the next several days on the Rio Grande
River near Del Rio and Lake Amistad.  Significant flooding is possible
in this region as this rainfall event unfolds.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
The remainder of the rivers across the WGRFC area are currently below
criteria levels.  No significant flooding is expected over the next
five days.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

AUSTIN-SMITH


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