Hydrometeorological Discussion
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AGUS74 KFWR 191701
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1201 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

               VALID SEPTEMBER 19 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 24

...WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THE NEXT FIVE DAYS, WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

Weak upper air disturbances, combined with an old frontal boundary,
have kept scattered to numerous showers ongoing across most of the
WGRFC area the past four days. In general, the upper level pattern is
conducive for precipitation to continue through the weekend, with a
gradual decrease in the precipitation early next week. In southeast
Texas, the best chances for rain will be during the next 24
hours, with the best chances for rain shifting to the lower Texas Gulf
coast over the weekend.  Some flooding is possible at this time, but
most locations will only see minor flood stages.  Very heavy rainfall
fell early Friday morning over southeast Texas where 4 to 7 inches of
rain fell in the general area around Houston.  Locally heavy rainfall
also fell over parts of central Texas where Lometa and Tow TX received
over 5.00 inches the past 24 hours.

The other focus for rainfall has been and continues to be with the
remnants of Hurricane Odile which are along the Texas/New Mexico
border this morning.  Locally heavy rain of over 3 inches fell over
west Texas near Fluvanna, Gail, and Kermit TX the past 24 hours ahead
of this storm, and nearly 3 inches of rain fell over southeast New
Mexico.  Over the next several days, the remnants of Odile are
expected to move slowly across the Texas panhandle today, then will
begin to drop southward toward the Permian Basin by Sunday morning.
With all the moisture in place over the area, the widespread rain will
continue over eastern New Mexico into west Texas and the Texas
panhandle through Saturday. Flash flooding will continue to remain the
greatest concern, along with developing minor and possible moderate
flooding on the Pecos River during the next two days exists. Rainfall
is also expected into early next week, especially over west central
and southwest Texas, depending upon the future track of Odile`s
remnants. Since these remnants should be weakening over west Texas
Sunday, mainly light to moderate rain is expected over this part of
Texas and southeast New Mexico.  We will continue to monitor the
progress of this storm.

By Monday a weak cold front is forecast to move into northern and
eastern Texas. At this point significant rainfall is not expected with
the frontal boundary as the remnants of Odile eventually weaken
further over west Texas.  Behind the front, drier air will be ushered
in, so rainfall will decrease further across Texas by Wednesday
morning.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 inch or more are forecast for eastern New Mexico into
western and southern Texas.  The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of
2.00 inches, are forecast over extreme southeast New Mexico into
west Texas around the Permian Basin.  Lighter amounts of MAP are
forecast over most of Texas, most of New Mexico, southern Colorado,
and southern Louisiana.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more are
forecast for southeastern New Mexico into western, central and deep
south Texas.  The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 2.00 inches, are
forecast just east of Lubbock around Jayton and Aspermont TX.  Lighter
amounts of MAP are forecast over much of the remaining sections of the
WGRFC area.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more are
forecast for a good part of New Mexico, the southwest third of Texas,
deep south Texas, and most of Colorado.  The heaviest rain, with MAP
amounts of 1.00 inch, are forecast over portions of southeast New
Mexico, the Permian Basin northwest of Midland, and over Mexico
south of Del Rio. Lighter amounts of MAP are forecast over the
remaining sections of the WGRFC area except for north central and
northeast Texas.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more
are forecast for southern New Mexico, deep south Texas, and the
northern Texas panhandle.  The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of
0.50 inch, are forecast over southeast New Mexico.  Lighter amounts of
MAP are forecast over the remaining sections of the WGRFC area except
for north central and northeast Texas.

Drought persists but is slowly improving over Texas and New Mexico.
Statewide, New Mexico has no areas of exceptional drought, while less
than 2% of Texas remains in exceptional drought. Severe drought
conditions are impacting less than 40% of New Mexico and 35% of
Texas.  No doubt the rainfall forecast the next 5 days will
further alleviate some of the ongoing drought. Runoff is expected
across southeast and southwest Texas, as well as over southeastern
New Mexico for the next 5 days.  Runoff leading to significant
mainstem river flooding may occur on the Pecos River to go along with
flash flooding in southeast New Mexico and west Texas.  The
runoff in southeast Texas may lead to additional river flooding, but
it should remain minor.  No significant runoff is expected over north
central and northeast Texas.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Pecos Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Heavy rains have continued to affect an area from Fourmile Draw near
Lakewood down to Red Bluff Dam. Both Brantley Lake near Carlsbad and
Red Bluff Dam will receive beneficial runoff from the remnants of
moisture transported into the region by Hurricane Odile.  Heavy rains
have continued overnight and early this morning with flashy runoff
episodes as well as stream flooding.

Rainfall over Fourmile Draw near Lakewood (LKWT2) has generated
enough
runoff to swell into minor flood levels.  This runoff will flow into
Brantley Lake, which has plenty of storage in the flood pool. Other
areas downstream have seen significant flashy
rises over Rocky Arroyo and Dark Canyon Draw as well.  Lake Avalon is
expected to fill and begin spilling today, which will increase flows
along the Pecos mainstem.

The Black River watershed above Malaga (MLAN5) has reported enough
rainfall over the past 24 hours to cause flows into minor flood
criteria.  This will also contribute to higher flows downstream on the
mainstem of the Pecos River through the reach near Red Bluff (RBFN5)
reaching minor flood levels.  Red Bluff Dam is reporting a rise of more
than 5 feet over the past week and is also expected to spill today.

No impacts are expected further downstream as these high flows continue
through sparsely populated west Texas and significantly attenuate
enroute to Girvin.

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Another round of widespread 1-1.5 inches of rain from Leasburg through
El Paso has finally generated some active, non-flood flows along the
Rio Grande. Further downstream at the confluence with the Rio Conchos,
due to continued and increasing releases from Luis Leon Reservoir,
Presidio (PRST2) and other downstream locations will see higher,
non-flood flows with minor flooding is possible.  Expected  duration
and release changes are not known at this time.  However, releases
increased yesterday and are expected to continue increasing based on
current releases from Madero Reservoir further upstream in the Rio
Conchos basin in Mexico.  Additionally, the higher flows routed along
the mainstem from El Paso will arrive early next week to continue river
rises along the Big Bend locations, but at this time, not expected to
reach minor flood levels.

...San Jacinto Basin...
Rainfall continues today in the San Jacinto Basin however no additional
significant rainfall is forecast in the basin for next 5 days.  Cypress
Creek near Hockley (KHOT2) is forecast to rise above bankfull Saturday.
 The west fork of the San Jacinto River at Humble is forecast to remain
around bankfull for the next several days.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Rainfall has continued across many parts of WGRFC with soil states
nearing saturation for most areas with exception of the northeast Texas
basins.  These wet areas of the WGRFC will likely again see
precipitation in some form of intensity today, but the current forecast
displays no rises beyond minor flooding at this time.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$




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