Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC
AGUS74 KFWR 191617
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1116 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
VALID OCTOBER 19 THROUGH OCTOBER 24
...THE RIO GRANDE BASIN WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
An upper level low is currently located over the northern Baja
Peninsula. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms has already
developed in southwestern New Mexico in advance of this system. The
low will move slowly eastward through Tuesday before dissipating,
bringing rainfall to southern New Mexico, the Rio Grande from El Paso
to Big Bend, and the Rio Conchos basin in Chihuahua, Mexico throughout
Onshore flow from the Gulf of Mexico has also resulted in locally
heavy rainfall in northeastern Mexico along the Rio Grande from
Lake Amistad to Brownsville. Rainfall is expected to continue in this
area over the next few days due to continued moisture feed as well as
support from the approaching upper level system.
Midweek an upper level trough is expected to move northeastward across
the northern Rockies. This will bring a chance for rainfall to
Colorado, New Mexico and western Texas Tuesday through Friday.
For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for portions of northeastern
Mexico that supply the Rio Grande. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch
are forecast for southwestern New Mexico. MAP amounts of less than
0.25 inch are forecast for the rest of New Mexico, southern Colorado,
and areas of Texas that supply the Rio Grande.
For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are
forecast near the Rio Grande from El Paso to Big Bend. MAP amounts of
0.25 to 0.5 inch are forecast for southern New Mexico and the Trans
Pecos region of Texas. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are
forecast for most of the rest of New Mexico, southern Colorado, and
western and southern Texas.
For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch
are forecast for portions of the Trans Pecos region of Texas and for
southeastern New Mexico. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are
forecast for the rest of the Rio Grande drainage basin from
southern Colorado to Brownsville.
For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are
forecast for the western half of Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5
inch are forecast for eastern New Mexico.
Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over
parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about half the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (49%) and 10% has extreme to
exceptional drought. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state
is experiencing moderate or worse drought (63%) and 8% has extreme
to exceptional drought. The forecasted rainfall is expected to
greatly alleviate drought concerns for the high category drought
areas in Central Texas.
All WGRFC river forecast points are at or below bankfull conditions.
Rainfall occurred overnight in Mexico in the Rio San Juan basin which
contributes to the Rio Grande below Lake Falcon. WGRFC will monitor
conditions in this area. Elsewhere in the WGRFC area, rainfall
forecasted in the next five days will not cause mainstem river
...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.
For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
National Precipitation Analysis:
The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
The US Drought Assessment:
The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: