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Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS North Central River Forecast Center
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AGUS73 KMSR 201948
HMDMSR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
0245 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...PRECIPITATION...

IN THE PAST 24 HOURS... THERE WAS ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR
IOWA... MINNESOTA... WISCONSIN AND NORTH DAKOTA. A BROAD PATH OF
HEAVY RAIN WITH MANY OBSERVATIONS ABOVE TWO INCHES EXTENDED FROM
DES MOINES IOWA UP NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH ROCHESTER MINNESOTA AND
LACROSSE WISCONSIN TO ASHLAND WISCONSIN ON THE SHORES OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE HEAVIEST PART OF THAT BAND WAS IN THE CEDAR RIVER
WATERSHED ABOVE CHARLES CITY IOWA AND THE UPPER END OF THE ROOT
RIVER WATERSHED IN MINNESOTA... WHERE FOUR TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN
WAS OBSERVED.

ADDITIONALLY... OVER TWO INCHES OF RAIN WAS OBSERVED ACROSS MOST
OF THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN IN NORTH DAKOTA... AS WELL WITH MANY OF
THE NORTHERN TRIBUTARIES TO THE RED RIVER... ESPECIALLY THE
PEMBINA RIVER.  ELSEWHERE... ISOLATED REPORTS OF AN INCH OR HIGHER
WERE OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA... AND IN NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AND NEIGHBORING ILLINOIS.

IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS... THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY... KEEPING THE MOISTURE INFLUX
AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER INCH OR MORE OF RAIN.
THE THREAT DRIFTS EASTWARD WITH UPPER MICHIGAN AND WESTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN EXPECTED TO SEE GREATER THAN THREE QUARTERS INCH. AS
WELL... AN INCH AND A HALF IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI AND
CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ALIGNING ROUGHLY ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER.
IOWA WISCONSIN AND THE REMAINDER OF MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS
SHOULD EXPECT LIGHTER TOTALS OF A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH. OF
COURSE... WITH THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF STORMS AND DISORGANIZED
INSTABILITY PATTERNS WITH THIS EVENT... SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE
CONSIDERABLY MORE RAIN THAN INDICATED IN THIS DISCUSSION.

...HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED OVER THE NCRFC AREA IN THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS HAS CAUSE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO EXPERIENCE
MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING.  THE PEMBINA RIVER IN NORTH DAKOTA
NEAR WAHALLA SHOT UP NEARLY 10 FEET IN 24 HOURS AND IS CURRENTLY
ABOVE MODERATE.  THE RIVER IS CURRENTLY SHOWING SIGNS OF NEARING
CREST.  THIS WATER WILL ROUTE DOWNSTREAM AND IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE
THE TOWNSHIP OF NECHE TO REACH THE MAJOR FLOOD CATEGORY IN THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

THE SOURIS RIVER AT WEST HOPE REMAINS ABOVE MODERATE AND HAS BEEN
REFUSING TO CREST WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL.  CURRENTLY THE RIVER
IS STILL EXPECTED TO RISE ANOTHER FEW TENTHS TO 14.5 FEET.  IN
ADDITION TO WEST HOPE... THE SOURIS RIVER AT TOWNER AND DOWNSTREAM
IS FORECAST TO REBOUND BACK ABOVE MODERATE DUE TO THE
OBSERVED/FORECAST RAINFALL DISCUSSED IN THE "PRECIPITATION"
DISCUSSION.

THE CEDAR... IOWA... AND WAPSIPINICON RIVERS IN IOWA ARE ALSO
EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AFTER YESTERDAY`S HEAVY RAIN.
SOME HEADWATER PORTIONS OF THESE RIVERS SAW OVER 5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IN 12-24 HOURS.  THE CEDAR RIVER NEAR CHARLES CITY
IS CURRENTLY ABOVE MAJOR AND STILL EXPECTED TO RISE ANOTHER
TWO FEET IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE CRESTING.  THIS WATER WILL
ROUTE DOWNSTREAM AND IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE MODERATE FLOODING
AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ON THE CEDAR OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER (LOCK AND DAM 18 TO 21) AND THE
ILLINOIS RIVER (HAVANNA TO BEARDSTOWN) ARE STILL ABOVE THE
MODERATE FLOOD CATEGORY... BUT THOSE RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE RECESSION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT BUMP FROM THE
RECEMT RAINFALL.

FOR ADDITIONAL AND MORE IN-DEPTH INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER
FORECASTS...PRECIPITATION AND ALL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION
IN THE NCRFC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...PLEASE REFER TO THE NCRFC
WEB PAGE AT:     HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NCRFC

EMERGENCY CALL BACK LIST:  BAC... DAM... JDT... JMP

IF NO RESPONSE FROM THIS LIST... CALL THE DOH...SCH OR HIC.


$$

...JPALMER/JDT...
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
