Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS North Central River Forecast Center

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AGUS73 KMSR 201911
HMDMSR

Hydrometeorological Forecast Discussion
NWS North Central River Forecast Center Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
110 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

...Precipitation...

Rainfall within the NCRFC region by early this morning averaged
around a tenth inch or less, scattered over North Dakota and the
northwest half of Minnesota and down to western Iowa.

In the forecast for today... early this morning rain and a few
scattered thunderstorms continued spreading east and northward across
North Dakota, Minnesota, and Iowa.  More rain and thunderstorms will
also continue to develop this afternoon and evening for much of
Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa.  Rainfall totals by tomorrow morning
should average around an inch across northeast Iowa to north central
Wisconsin.  Expect averge amounts around a half to threee quarters of
an inch over the east half of Minnesota, the eastern two thirds of
Iowa, up to northeast Wisconsin and upper Michigan.  Otherwise much
of the NCRFC region will receive a tenth to quarter inch of rain by
tomorrow morning.

This storm system will pass through our area pretty quickly, so then
between Tuesday and Wednesday morning the mid part of our region is
dry, with around a tenth inch of rain in lower Michigan, and another
tenth inch of precipitation moving into North Dakota and northern
Minnesota.

...Hydrologic Conditions...

The expected rainfall over the next 24 hours, together with warm
temperatures and snowmelt, on top of mostly frozen or
saturated ground, may generate river rises this week to near or
above moderate flood levels in parts of Wisconsin.  There is
still a significant, and ripe, snowpack over much of
Wisconsin where a lot of the heaviest rain should fall.

Rises above bankfull and minor flood levels are likely this week
in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and the Red River of the North in North
Dakota and western Minnesota.  The mainstem Mississippi River
could rise above bankfull or minor flood levels, roughly
downstream of Lake City, Minnesota, by early March as all this
water works its way downstream.

Many rivers across the NCRFC region are running above normal for
this time of year. Snowmelt and ice movement are causing some rises
across the northern portions of the area. Additionally, ice
currently frozen in culverts, ditches and drain tiles could impact
the timing and volume of runoff that gets to the rivers.

The National Spring Hydrologic outlook was released last Friday,
and includes probabilistic flood exceedence information for
forecast points in the NCRFC area. For a link to the NCRFC 2017
Spring Hydrologic Outlook, which contains references to antecedent
and current hydrologic conditions, please refer to:
http://www.weather.gov/ncrfc/LMI_ROF_NFP_SpringHydroOutlook

For additional and more in-depth information concerning river
forecasts, precipitation and all hydrometeorological information
in the NCRFC area of responsibility, please refer to the NCRFC
web page at:     http://www.weather.gov/ncrfc


Emergency Call Back List: DCG SAS WES RHR

If no response from this list, call the DOH, SCH or HIC.


$$

...rhr/wes...





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