Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS North Central River Forecast Center

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AGUS73 KMSR 131608

Hydrometeorological Forecast Discussion
NWS North Central River Forecast Center Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1008 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

The last 24 hours saw another system sweep through and bring light
precipitation across the northern reaches of the RFC in the form
of snow and freezing rain. Shifts in wind pattern prevented the
heaviest accumulations from hitting the western and northern
shores of Michigan for a change, and drove most of the snow west
into northern wisconsin and northeastern Minnesota, where snowfall
totals were as high as 3 inches and precip totals as high as 0.3

The forecast for the next few days calls for much of the same.
Broadly spread light precipitation in the form of snow and/or
freezing rain with the heaviest acuumulation around the shores of
Lake Superior and the western shores of Michigan. Expect  0.5-3
inches of snow in most places with 5-8 inches in western Michigan
over the next 48-72 hours.

...Hydrologic Conditions...
No flooding is expected anytime soon in the NCRFC area but the
threat of ice jam flooding is always a concern. Currently
the Menominee at Pembine is experiencing what appears to be
a significant ice jam due to the cold temperatures and high
flow for this time of year.

Due to open water freezing in the northern part of the NCRFC
a dip of reduced flow is working its way down the main stem
Mississippi. This is the first of a series of "ice bite"
events expected. Water temperatures are around the freezing
mark down to L & D 13 but much open water still exists.

The temperature outlook shows some potential for another deep
freeze around Christmas which would freeze up rivers for the
middle portion of the NCRFC creating a second ice bite event.

Navigation on the Mississippi at St. Louis can be greatly
impacted from sharp flow loss or critically low stages.

For additional and more in-depth information concerning river
forecasts, precipitation and all hydrometeorological information
in the NCRFC area of responsibility, please refer to the NCRFC
web page at:     http://www.weather.gov/ncrfc

Emergency Call Back List: (in order MAW ... SAS ... ANM)

If no response from this list, call the DOH, SCH or HIC.



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