Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGNT40 KWNM 020734
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
334 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

SUMMARY...00Z NCEP SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A HI PRES RIDGE OVER THE
OFSHR WTRS...EXCEPT FOR A STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERING ROUGHLY W TO
E ACROSS THE NRN NT2 WTRS. LATEST AVAIL ASCATB HI-RES PASSES FROM
EARLIER TONITE SHOW AN AREA OF WINDS TO 20 KT IN THE SRN NT1 WTRS
SE OF LONG ISLAND...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS OVER
THE NRN NT2 WTRS JUST SE OF 1000 FM...BUT OTHERWISE INDICATE
LIGHTER WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS. LIGHTNING
DENSITY PRODUCT DATA AT 0630Z DID NOT SHOW ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS
OVER THE OFSHR WTRS.

MAIN WEATHER FEATURES...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NE OVER THE NT1
AREA TODAY. A DVLPG LOW WILL PASS NE OVER THE NT1 WTRS LATER TODAY
...THEN MOVE OFF TO THE NE TONITE AND TUE WHILE PULLING A COLD
FRONT SE OVER THE NT1 AREA. A SERIES OF LOWS WILL PASS NE ACROSS
THE SRN NT1 WTRS TUE INTO WED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E OVER
THE NT2 WTRS WED THRU THU. LOW PRES WILL FORM NEAR THE MID ATLC
COAST THU NITE...THEN LOOP AROUND BUT REMAIN ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY
THRU FRI NITE.

MODELS...THE 00Z MED RNG MDLS ARE IN VERY GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT
ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS FOR TODAY THRU WED NITE...AND WILL BE USING
THE REPRESENTATIVE 00Z GFS 30M SOLN TO POPULATE THE WIND GRIDS
FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. FOR THU THRU FRI NITE WITH THE LOW NEAR THE
MID ATLC COAST...THE 00Z MED RNG MDLS ALL HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING
WHICH LEADS TO STRENGTH DIFFERENCES...SO A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z
ECMWF/GFS WILL BE USED AS A COMPRIMISE SOLN.

SEAS...WNA VERSION OF 00Z WAVEWATCH III MDL AND 00Z ECMWF WAM ARE
IN VERY GUD AGREEMENT OVER THE OFSHR WTRS FOR TODAY THRU MON
NIGHT. THE 00Z WNA WW3 IS 3 TO 4 FT HIGHER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF WAM
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THU. DECIDED TO USE THE WNA WW3 MDL FOR
TODAY THRU WED NITE IN ORDER TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE PREFERRED
GFS SOLN...THEN WENT WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF WNA WW3/ECMWF WAM FOR
THU THRU SAT NITE FOR THE SAME REASON BUT ALSO TO RESOLVE THE MDL
DIFFERENCES.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE TUE NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     GALE TUE.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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