Marine Interpretation Message
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AGNT40 KWNM 010023
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
823 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

SUMMARY...SATPIX AND LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATE A STNRY FNT
EXTNDG NE TO SW ACROSS THE NT2 WTRS THIS EVNG...WITH LIGHTNING
STRIKE PRODUCT SHOWING A LINE OF ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS JUST E
OF THE FNTL BNDRY...AND ALSO OVER THE FAR SRN NT2 ZONES. LATEST
ASCAT HI-RES PASS AT 15Z WAS INDICATING ONLY LIGHT WINDS OVER ALL
OF THE OFSHR ZONES...SO THE STNRY FNT IS CONSIDERED TO BE A WEAK
FTR.

THE STNRY FNT WILL DRIFT W AND NW AS A WEAK WARM FRONT LATE FRI
INTO SAT NITE...AS A HI PRES RDG BLDS W TOWARD THE OFSHR AREAS.
THE FNT SHD BECOME NRLY STNRY ALG THE COAST SUN NITE...THEN DSIPT
MON AS RDG BLDS W OVER THE OFSHR WATERS MON AND MON NIGHT. A LOW
PRES CNTR EMERGING FROM THE TROPICS...POSSIBLY A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...IS EXPCTD TO MOVE N AND APPROACH THE SRN NT2 WTRS MON
NITE...THEN NE ACROSS SE NT2 WATERS TUE AND TUE NITE. A WEAK COLD
FNT WILL MOVE SE OVER THE NT1 AND NRN NT2 WTRS TUE AND TUE NITE.

MODELS...THE MED RNG MDLS ARE IN GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT ACROSS THE
OFSHR WTRS DURG THE FCST PRD...EXCEPT THERE ARE DIFFS OVER THE MON
NITE THRU TUE NITE TIMEFRAME CONCERNING THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE.
18Z GFS/12Z NOGAPS DSIPT THE TROPICAL LOW AS IT PASSES JUST E OF
THE BAHAMAS BY LATER TUE. 12Z GEM/UKMET BRING A FAIRLY STG LOW NE
OVER THE SE NT2 WTRS MON NITE THRU TUE NITE. 12Z ECMWF IS VRY
SIMILAR TO THE 12Z GEM/UKMET FOR MON NITE THRU TUE NITE...EXCEPT
IT IS SIGNIF WEAKER WITH THE LOW. THE REPRESENTATIVE 18Z GFS 10M
WILL BE USED FOR THE WIND GRIDS INTO MON...BUT THEN WILL USE THE
12Z ECMWF FOR LATER MON THRU TUE NITE BECAUSE IT APRS TO BE THE
BEST MEDIAN SOLN ATTM AND ALSO SINCE IT HAS STG SUPPORT FROM THE
LATEST WPC MED RNG FCSTR GUIDANCE.

.SEAS...18Z MULTIGRID WW3 AND 12Z ECMWF WAM ARE IN VRY GUD OVERALL
AGREEMNT ACROSS THE CSTL/OFSHR WTRS INTO MON...SO WILL JUST USE
THE 18Z MWW3 FOR THE SEA HT GRIDS OVER THIS TIMEFRAME. SINCE THE
MWW3 LOOKS UNDERDONE WITH THE SEAS OVER THE NT2 WTRS DURG THE LATE
MON THRU TUE NITE PRD...THE MORE REPRESENTATIVE 12Z ECMWF WAM WILL
BE USED FOR THIS PRD.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS... NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS... NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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