Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGNT40 KWNM 262051
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
351 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

THERE WAS A RAPIDSCT PASS FM 1530Z SHOWING HI PRES WITH LIGHT WNDS
PUSHING INTO THE MID ATLC WTRS WHILE HIGHEST WNDS ARE WELL TO THE
NE AT 25 KT NEAR THE HAGUE LN. TRENDS OF RECENT SCATTEROMETER
PASSES AND NRN BUOYS SHOW DCRG TREND OF WNDS. WITH RESIDIAL CAA AS
HIGH MOVS IN 12Z GFS 30M WNDS LOOK REPRESENTATIVE.

FOR TONIGHT AND SAT A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRES NOW CENTERED OVR
THE INLAND AREAS OF MID ATLC STATES INTO THE SERN US MOVS EWD INTO
THE OFFSHR WTRS AND OVERSPREADS ALL OF THE WTRS. THEN SAT NGT
INTO SUN LOW PRES MOVS E ACRS SRN QUEBEC INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES
WHILE PUSHING A TRAILING CDFNT OFFSHORE THRU NT1 WTRS AND INTO NRN
NT2 WTRS. THE 12Z GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGRMT WITH NON-NCEP
MDLS ON TIMING OF LOW. FOR THE FCST THRU 00Z MON USED THE 12Z GFS
10M WNDS FOR DVLPG SW FLOW...EXCP THE HIGHER 30M WINDS INTO
TONIGHT. AFTER THAT MDLS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES ON NUMBER AND
TIMING OF ANY LOWS OR WAVES THAT TRACK ENE ALG FNT OFF THE
CAROLINAS. 12Z MDLS ARE LEANING TWD TAKING TWO LOWS OUT OF THE WRN
GLF OF MEX WITH THE FIRST ONE MOVG OFFSHORE MON FOLLOWED BY A
SECOND WAVE MON NIGHT AND TUE. GFS IS FASTER THAN OTHER MDLS WITH
FIRST WAVE BUT IS CLOSER IN TIMING WITH SECOND WAVE ALTHO WEAKER
THAN OTHER MDLS AS LOW PASSES E OF 70W. NON-NCEP MDLS ARE
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUN WITH UKMET AND ECMWF SPRTG
BRF PRD OF SW GALE OR NEAR GALE FRC WNDS WITH FIRST WAVE IN OUTER
PORTION OF CENTRAL NT2 WTRS...SOMEWHAT EARLIER THAN IN MRNG FCST.
FOR THE FCST SUN NIGHT AND BYND TRANSITIONED TO 12Z UKMET OUT TO
21Z TUE AND THEN CHOSE 12Z ECMWF AFTER THAT...WHILE BOOSTING
UKMET/ECMWF SFC WNDS BY 10 PCT IN CAA BHND LOWS. THE CAA CONTINUES
THRU 12Z THU AND BYND AS HIGH PRES CNTRD INLAND RIDGES INTO WTRS.
THERE IS HINT OF A SECONDARY CDFNT MOVG OFSHR FM NRN WTRS LATER WD
INTO WED NIGHT WITH A SURGE OF CAA UP TO 30 KT BHND IT. FOR NOW
HELD WNDS CAPPED AT 30 KT WITH THIS BEING DAY 5. THIS SCENARIO IS
FAVORED BY WPC MED RNG GUIDANCE.

.SEAS...THE 12Z MULTIGRID WWIII GUID LOOKS OK WHEN COMPARED TO 18Z
SEA STATE ANAL AND BUOY/SHIP OBS. PLAN TO USE THE 12Z WWIII THRU
00Z MON WHEN GFS IS FAVORED THEN WITH NO UKMET VERSION AVBL USED A
75/25 PCT BLEND OF ECMWF/WWIII WAM SUN NIGHT BEFORE SWITCHING TO A
MODIFIED VERSION OF 12Z ECMWF WAM...EDITED TO BOOST SEAS 20-30 PCT
IN CAA MID ATLC WTRS AND HIGHER TO N AND S INVOF PASSING LOW PRES
WAVES.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE POSSIBLE MON.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE POSSIBLE MON.

$$

.FORECASTER BANCROFT. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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