Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 230650
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
250 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TRANQUIL PERIOD CONTINUES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE 20-25 KT THRESHOLD THROUGH SUN NIGHT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A PERSISTENT RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF 27N. MODEL
DIFFERENCES HERE ARE RELATIVELY MINOR. THE GFS SOLUTION SEEMS
REASONABLE FOR ADJUSTING THE FORECAST.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE 03Z OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO CARRIES A
CLOSED LOW INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THU WHILE ALL OF THE GLOBAL
GUIDANCE DEPICT THE SYSTEM AS AN OPEN WAVE BY THAT TIME. IN
FACT...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE SYSTEM AS AN OPEN WAVE
LATER TODAY. THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THE TIMING OF
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AS THE SYSTEM PASSES INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. THE GFS SEEMED AS GOOD AS ANY SOLUTION TO ADJUST THE
GRIDS...BUT HEAVY EDITING WAS REQUIRED TO BOTH THE WINDS AND
WAVES TO MATCH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE DAY-TO-DAY
FORECAST THROUGH SUN NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE
ONE LAST TIME THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO A DIURNAL MAXIMUM OF 30 KT THU-SUN. THE 00Z GFS NOW
CARRIES ONE BARB ON GALE FORCE WINDS THU MORNING HERE...BUT IT IS
NOT SUPPORTED BY THE REMAINING GUIDANCE. WILL NOT BITE ON
EXTENDING THE GALE WARNING OFF COLOMBIA INTO THU. THE FORECAST
CALLS FOR STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NE COAST OF
COLOMBIA THU THROUGH SUN.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE ONLY CHANCE OF WINDS EXCEEDING THE 20-25 KT THRESHOLD OVER
THE SW N ATLC THROUGH THU WILL COME IN THE EVENING HOURS ALONG
THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE 0132 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A FRESH
TO STRONG BREEZE IN PLACE BETWEEN THE CENTRAL COAST OF HISPANIOLA
AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT THE FRESH
TO STRONG BREEZE HERE.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WILL ADD
TO THE UNCERTAINTY BEYOND THU. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE STRONG
NAVGEM...IT BECOMES DIFFICULT TO TRACK THE REMNANTS INTO THE SW N
ATLC IN MANY OF THE MODELS AFTER THE BROADER SYSTEM MOVES PAST
PUERTO RICO. CHOSE TO KEEP THE FORECAST CLOSEST TO THE GFS SINCE
IT WAS USED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE
CARIBBEAN.


$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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