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000
AGXX40 KNHC 101834
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
134 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

1035 mb high over N Mexico continues to expand SE across the
basin in the wake of a strong cold front, now well SE of the
area. Winds and seas have continued the diminishing trend with
strong Nly flow now lingering only across SE portions and through
Yucatan Channel and across W half of Cuba and spilling into
Carib. Seas of 7-10 ft in Nly swell this morning look to have
dropped off another 1-2 ft since 12Z, with slowly improving
conditions expected E half through Mon.

The high will drift ENE to near the S TX coast through Mon
evening with narrow ridging developing across across the basin,
producing only gentle to moderate winds and 1-3 ft seas across
the waters, except 4-5 ft in lingering N swell in the far SE
part. A dry cold front will clip the northern and eastern Gulf
waters early Tue morning through Tue night with winds briefly
increasing to moderate to fresh over those portions. New high
pres will build back in the wake of the front through Thu with
gentle winds and 1-3 ft seas prevailing basin-wide by then.
Another cold front may clip the NE Gulf by late Thu night into
Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

Northerly swell propagating through Atlantic passages continue to
fade with buoys across N Puerto Rico and VI showing 4-5 ft attm.
Strong cold front sweeping across the region now extends from E
central Cuba to central Panama to the E of Bocas del Torro per a
recent ASCAT pass. Edge of scat swath depicted potential for
winds to 40 kt along front and just offshore of Panama, but cuold
be influenced by strong convection persisting along front.
Very active convection remains within 150 nm ahead of the front
with heavy rain possible across portions of Jamaica and Panama
next few hours. A gale warning remains in effect offshore of NE
Honduras and Nicaragua. No recent altimeter data is available for
area behind front, but upwind buoy 41057 has peaked as high as 14
ft this morning and now 13 ft. Dynamic fetch of northerly winds
spilling down the SW Carib has likely generated seas as high as
15 ft offshore of W Panama and SE Costa Rica, and was analyzed at
15 ft offshore of the reefs off of NE Honduras this morning.
Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere E of 77W with seas now
4-7 ft inside Carib and have subsided slightly to 6-9 ft across
the Tropical N Atlc waters.

The S portion of the front has begun to stall and likely to
meander in place next few days before dissipating, while N
portions will continue to move slowly ESE and reach from near
the W Windward Passage to E Jamaica to central Panama by Mon
morning. Gale conditions will remain offshore of Nicaragua
through Mon evening where seas will remain 8-15 ft. The front
will wash out by Wed with a remnant trough lingering through Thu.
Leftover fresh to strong northerly flow off Nicaragua will
finally diminish by Thu afternoon, when seas will finally drop
below 8 ft. Meanwhile, tradewind regime will return to most of
basin by Fri as NE Atlc high pres noses ridge SW to Turks and
Caicos area and underneath a series of fast moving clipper type
fronts moving through the mid latitudes.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

The cold front extends from near 31N69W through the SE Bahamas
ato E central Cuba, where it has slowed its forward motion. Active
convection continues within 180 nm E of the front. Fresh to
strong NW to N flow with a cold dry airmass continues to filter
across the waters in the wake of the front. Recent ASCAT data
showed fresh to strong flow behind front and suggested strongest
winds across Straits of Florida and blowing across Cuba. Seas are
running 6-9 ft NE of the Bahamas, and 9-11 ft N of 28N behind the
front. Fresh to strong southerly winds are N of 28N ahead of the
front, with a gale warning in place N of 33N. Moderate to fresh
E-SE flow and 5 to 8 ft seas in mixed swell cover the remainder
of the waters E of the front.

The front will continue to shift eastward and extend from 30N65W
to the Turks and Caicos by this evening, then will stall from
near 27N65W to the W Windward Passage by Mon morning. Marine
conditions will significantly improve through Mon and Mon night
while the front holds in place. Another cold front will sweep
across the far NW portion Tue through Wed with another round of
fresh to near gale force winds and seas building to 8-13 ft
across the waters N of 27N Tue afternoon through Wed. Conditions
will improve thereafter as high pressure builds across the basin
in the wake of the front. Yet another cold front may move into
the NW waters by the end of the week.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ029...W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 80W...
     Gale Warning today into Mon.
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night.
.AMZ039...SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA
CANAL...
     Gale Warning today into tonight.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Stripling. National Hurricane Center.



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