Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGXX40 KNHC 180835
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
435 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

1018 mb high pressure centered near 27N87W along ridge extending
across the northern Gulf is maintaining light to gentle breezes
and slight seas over the north central and northeast Gulf, and
gentle to moderate winds with 2 to 3 ft seas elsewhere. An upper
is low centered over the Cay Sal area of the Bahamas near the
eastern entrances to the Straits of Florida, drifting west into
the southeast Gulf. A few thunderstorms are on the leading edge
of the upper low, over the southeast Gulf, and will accompany
the upper low as it drifts across the Gulf and reaches the Texas
coast by late Tue. Little change is expected otherwise until mid
week when what will likely be the remnants of Tropical Storm
Harvey, currently east of Barbados, will cross the Yucatan
peninsula. Most global guidance continues to be in good agreement
showing the remnant low of Harvey weakening as it passes the
Yucatan peninsula, but it is a little early to say with
conviction what the intensity will be at that time. Please
continue to refer to http://hurricanes.gov for more information
on Harvey.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

At 0600Z, T.S. Harvey is centered about 80 nm east of Barbados,
moving west at 16 kt, with 35 kt sustained winds and gusts to 45
kt. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms associated with
Harvey are moving across the Windward Islands. Harvey is expected
to continue westward across the central Caribbean through Sun,
grazing Cabo Gracias a Dios in eastern Honduras as a strong
tropical storm by Mon afternoon, then continuing through the
northwest Caribbean reaching Belize by Tue afternoon. Harvey will
remain relatively compact system, with an envelope of strong
winds and seas 8 to 12 ft within 120 nm of the center on the
northern semicircle. See http://hurricanes.gov for more
information on Harvey.

Ahead of Harvey, a tropical wave currently between Haiti and the
central coast of Colombia will follow an upper low across the
western Caribbean through Sat, accompanied by a few showers and
thunderstorms across mainly the northwest Caribbean. Associated
convection is currently ongoing over the Windward Passage and
across the southern peninsula of Haiti. A scatterometer pass from
03 UTC indicated fresh to strong northeast winds in the southern
lee of Cuba east of 80W ahead of the approaching tropical wave.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

A large and well defined upper low centered over the Cay Sal area
of the Bahamas is moving westward and supporting scattered
convection over portions of the northern Bahamas and near the
Turks and Caicos Islands. Fresh easterly winds follow the
tropical wave over the waters south of 22N and west of 70W. A
ridge extends along roughly 29N, and fresh east winds will expand
across the waters south of 25N with locally stronger winds near
the coast of Hispaniola through today into Sat as Harvey passes
south of the region through early next week. A second
feature...an area of low pressure well to the southeast in the
tropical Atlantic is moving WNW toward the region. Some potential
exists for this low to develop into a tropical cyclone during
the next couple of days as it approaches the area. Strong upper
level winds may weaken it before it crosses 65W north of Puerto
Rico by early Sun. This still will bring strong winds and
building seas to the area south of 25N from Sun through mid week.
A ridge along roughly 28N will move little through Sun then
shift slowly northward early next week, maintaining light to
gentle breezes into early next week north of 28N, with short
period southeast swell of 4 to 6 ft.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ021...CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W...
     Tropical Storm Warning Sat night.
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W
INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     Tropical Storm Warning Sat night.
.AMZ033...CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING
VENEZUELA BASIN...
     Tropical Storm Warning tonight into Sat night.
.AMZ035...OFFSHORE WATERS WINDWARD ISLANDS INCLUDING TRINIDAD
AND TOBAGO...
     Tropical Storm Warning today into tonight.
.AMZ037...TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 55W AND
65W...
     Tropical Storm Warning early today into today.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.



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