Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 281803
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
203 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

STRONG SE INFLOW ACROSS NW PORTIONS INTO VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION
ENTERING THE NW EARLY THIS MORNING KICKED UP SEAS 6-9 FT ACROSS
NW PORTIONS WITH 3 BUOYS REACHING 7 FT OR HIGHER..AND 42020
HOLDING AT 9 FT ATTM. MODELS DID NOT FORESEE THIS AND ADJUSTED
MANUALLY IN THE SHORT TERM BUT WILL HAVE TO INCREASE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS FOR NEXT PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES CENTERED
ALONG NE COASTAL PLAINS DOMINATES AND IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO
FRESH E TO SE FLOW BASIN WIDE EXCEPT FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE NE
PART. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT DISRUPTED TONIGHT INTO SUN
AS A TROUGH MOVES S ACROSS THE FAR NE GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA AS
T.D. TWO CONTINUES NW TOWARDS THE SE U.S. COAST. NEW HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS S LOUISIANA BY SUN AFTERNOON
THEN SLOWLY SETTLE SE AND INTO NE CENTRAL PORTIONS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THEN...EXCEPT OFFSHORE OF THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE
DIURNAL TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP EACH LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING BEFORE
SHIFTING W-NW AND OFFSHORE INTO THE NW GULF DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS NEAR THE COAST WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO FRESH TO
STRONG AHEAD OF THE TROUGHING.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

VERY WEAK LLVL FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS W AND SW PORTIONS...WHILE A
LLVL WEAKNESS CARVED OUT BY SW ATLC TROUGH IS KEEPING ATLC RIDGING
FROM BUILDING INTO E PART OF BASIN. THIS IS PRODUCING LIGHT TO
MODERATE TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SW. TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB OVERNIGHT IS BECOMING
ABSORBED IN THE CENTRAL AMERICA GYRE AS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT NW AND DIMINISH NEXT FEW DAYS. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHING S PART OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND WINDWARDS WILL
CONTINUE WWD AND ACROSS SE PORTIONS NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
BASIN THROUGH SUNDAY AND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING
LOCATED IN THE SW N ATLC CONTINUES TO DISRUPT CENTRAL ATLC
RIDGING. LOW PRESSURE TYPICALLY FOUND OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL
ALSO BE WEAKER THAN NORMAL FURTHER HELPING TO KEEP A WEAK PATTERN.
AS A RESULT...MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXCEPT LIGHT TO GENTLE IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT...EXCEPT 4-7 FT IN THE S CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS CENTERED NEAR 30.3N 78.5W AT 15Z WITH
MAX WINDS STILL AT 30 KT. MORNING RECON FOUND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S BUT WAS LOCATED WITHIN THE CDO THAT
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AND NOT REALLY WITHIN THE CORE OF THE
CIRCULATION. TD TWO REMAINS INVOLVED WITH THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH
DOMINATING THE REGION...AND WILL BE STEERED NW TOWARDS THE COAST
DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AND OUT OF THE AREA. THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST STRENGTHENS THE SYSTEM TO A T.S. BY 00Z AT WHICH TIME FAR
N PORTIONS OF AMZ111 SEE T.S. WINDS FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS BEFORE
EXITING THE AREA. MAX SEAS ASSOCIATED HAVE REMAINED ACROSS THE NE
SEMICIRCLE AND WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE N LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE WILL BUILD SLOWLY WWD INTO THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM...BUT WILL BE SOMEWHAT BLOCKED BY LLVL
TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THAT MAY PRODUCE A NARROW ZONE
OF STRONG S TO SE WINDS ALONG THE E SIDE OF TROUGH. OTHERWISE...
THE ATLC RIDGE WILL REORGANIZE OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS BY MID WEEK
AND FRESHEN SE FLOW ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHILE TROUGHING
PERSISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF W HALF OF THE AREA TO MAINTAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS W OF 70W.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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