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000
AGXX40 KNHC 250736
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
336 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GFS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH MON THEN BLEND WITH ECMWF AND
EC WAVE TUE AND WED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE 00Z ATMOSPHERIC MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AS WELL
AS WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH MON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN MOVE TO ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN BY MON
BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH AGAIN IN THE WESTERN GULF WED. A BLEND OF
THE 00Z MWW3 AND PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS USED TO ADJUST THE SEAS
THROUGH MON. ON TUE AND WED...AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF. THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A DEEPER SOLUTION ALOFT THAN THE UKMET AND
NAVGEM. GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT THEIR OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL DOMINATE THE
GULF LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE STILL
REASONABLY SIMILAR TUE AND WED AT THE SURFACE. A BLEND OF THEIR
SOLUTIONS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE WAVE MODELS WAS USED TO FORMULATE
THE FORECAST. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GFS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH MON THEN BLEND WITH ECMWF AND
EC WAVE TUE AND WED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THERE ARE FEW DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00Z ATMOSPHERIC MODEL RUNS
AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE GFS...AVAILABLE
IN HIGHER RESOLUTION THAN THE OTHER MODELS...WAS BLENDED WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH MON. ALTIMETER DATA SHOWS REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL MWW3 FIELDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
TROPICAL N ATLC WHERE SEAS TO 8 FT CAN BE FOUND. ON TUE AND
WED...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
INCREASE TROUGHING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. BY WED...THE 00Z GFS
BUILDS A LARGER AREA OF FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 16N COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WHICH
BUILDS A LARGER CIRCULATION OF LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AROUND LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS SHOW
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF ON THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE
LOW...BUT GENERALLY ARE STRONGER WITH WINDS TO ITS N. BLENDING THE
GFS AND ECMWF AND THEIR RESPECTIVE WAVE MODELS SEEMS TO BE A
REASONABLE COMPROMISE ON TUE AND WED. ONLY SEAS IN THE TROPICAL N
ATLC ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GFS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH MON THEN BLEND WITH ECMWF AND
EC WAVE TUE AND WED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
THE SW N ATLC THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN BAHAMAS BY THU IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE
TROUGH BUILDING OVER THE BAHAMAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUE AND SETTLING NEAR S
FLORIDA ON WED. WHILE THE GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WERE BLENDED WITH THE
SIMILAR PREVIOUS FORECASTS THROUGH MON...IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO
BEGIN BLENDING IN THE ECMWF AND ITS WAVE MODEL FOR TUE AND WED AS
THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES DOMINATED BY THIS TROUGHING.

$$
.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.