Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGPN40 KWNM 211358
MIMPAC

Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
558 AM PST Tue Nov 21 2017

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W.

No changes are planned for the morning update. The models
continue to be in good agreement through Friday night, with
differences persisting over the weekend. The 06z GFS is similar
to the previous 00z run through the period. For the short term
period through Friday night, the current warning headlines look
good and with all the models in agreement confidence is above
average. The gale warnings for Wednesday also look good as both
the GFS and ECMWF are very close with low passing west of the
Washington/Oregon waters. For the weekend, there continue to be
differences regarding placement of lows and timing of fronts. The
ECMWF continues to be the most consistent of the global models,
and current wind grids reflect this. The 12z sea state analysis
indicated that the observed values matched up well with the
WaveWatch, so also no changes needed for wave grids.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

The latest model guidance indicates that low pressure currently
well west of the pz6 waters will move northward and remain west
of the offshore waters tonight and Tue. Still expect gales to
develop across portions of the pz5 and northern pz6 waters by
late tonight. The gales will then continue into Tue night.
Another low will then track west of the pz5 waters Tue night and
Wed with gales again developing across portions of the pz5
waters. Weakening low pressure will then move across the northern
pz5 waters by Thu. Weak low pressure will move across the
northern pz6 and southern pz5 waters Sat. The latest gfs is now
weaker with this low than some of the previous runs had been
showing. Farther south, mainly light winds will continue across
most of the southern pz6 waters through Sat. The latest runs of
the gfs and ecmwf look to be in reasonable agreement across the
eastern Pacific through Sat night. By Sun the gfs moves low
pressure into the pz5 waters while the ecmwf is weaker with this
system. At this time will lean more towards the ecmwf for the Sun
system. For wind grids will use the gfs winds through Sat night,
then transition to the ecmwf. Current warnings look reasonable
and few changes should be needed on the next offshore waters
forecast.

For wave height grids will also use the ww3 through Sat night,
then transition to the ecmwf wam.

Extratropical storm surge guidance...n/a.



.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters...
.PZZ800...Inner Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Gale today.
.PZZ900...Outer Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Gale today.
     Gale Wednesday.
.PZZ805...Inner Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Gale today.
.PZZ905...Outer Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Gale today.
     Gale Wednesday.
     Gale Possible Thursday.
.PZZ810...Inner Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
     Gale today into tonight.
.PZZ910...Outer Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
     Gale today.
     Gale Wednesday.
.PZZ815...Inner Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale today into tonight.
.PZZ915...Outer Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale today.
     Gale Wednesday.

.PZ6 California Waters...
.PZZ820...Inner Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale today.
.PZZ920...Outer Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale today.

$$

.Forecaster Kosier/Nolt. Ocean Prediction Center.


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