Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGPN40 KWNM 300222
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
722 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. THE 00Z SFC
ANALYSIS INDICATED LOW PRES OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING S AND SW ACROSS THE WA COASTAL WATERS AND INTO THE
OREGON AND N CA OFFSHORE WATERS. TROUGH WAS LOCATED JUST W OF THE
WA/OR WATERS. THE 18Z GFS WAS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS 12Z
RUN...ALTHOUGH THE 18Z RUN HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/UKMET
FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE SHORT WAVE MOVING S
FROM GULF OF AK...AS WELL AS WITH INDICATING STRONGER GRADIENT
ALONG THE CA COAST. THE 00Z SEA STATE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT
OVERALL THE OBSERVED SEAS MATCHED UP WELL WITH THE MWW3 VALUES FOR
THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION WAS OVER THE WA COASTAL WATERS WHERE
OBSERVED SEAS WERE STILL ABOUT 1 TO 3 FT HIGHER THAN THE MODEL.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE STRONG LOW PRES THAT MOVED NE THROUGH THE NRN WATERS THIS
MRNG IS NOW OVR WRN VNCVR ISLND AND MVNG N AT 40 KT. 18Z
SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED GALES UP TO 80 NM W OF CAPE LOOKOUT.
SEAS REACHED 21 FT AT BUOY 46248 AT 18Z. JUST AS WINDS ARE DMNSHNG
QUICKLY...SEAS SHLD ALSO BE SUBSIDING. BY 00Z THIS
EVENING...EXPECT HIGHEST WINDS NR 30 KT ALNG THE NRN OREGON COAST
AND 20 TO 25 KT OVR THE PZ5/NRN WATERS.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EXPECT WINDS 15 TO 25 KT OVR THE WATERS N
OF CAPE BLANCO THRU TUE NGT AS WEAK SFC TROFS BRUSH THE AREA AS
THEY SLIDE SE OUT OF THE GULD OF AK AND MV E INLAND OVR THE PAC NW
AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...HIGH PRES RIDGE
WILL BUILD EASTWARD WITH AREA OF NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT OFF PT
CONCEPTION TNGT EXPANDING SE AND NW THRU SUN NGT THEN GRADU
DMNSHNG MON NGT THRU TUE NGT AS THE INLAND TROF BCMS VRY WEAK.

MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU TUE NIGHT. THEN FROM WED
THRU THU NGT...THE GFS BCMS THE OUTLIER AS IT IS BCMS TOO
AGGREESSIVE IN DIGGING UPR TROF OFF THE COAST MID WEEK. ON THE
SFC...THE GFS BRINGS A SFC LOW S INTO THE WASH AND OR WATERS
WED...AND LINGERS ON TO THU. PREFER THE ECMWF/UKMET WHICH JUST
BRING A WK SFC TROF SE THRU THE WATERS WED THEN DVLP A SFC RDG
EWRD INTO THE PAC NW THU AND THU NGT AND ALSO HV MORE DVLMNT OF
THE INLAND SFC TROF LATE THU. THE ECMWF 10M WNIDS REACH 33 KT BY
00Z FRI NE OF PT ARENA. WL USE THE GFS 10M GRIDS TUE NGT...THEN A
50/50 ECMWF/UKMET BLEND THRU 12Z FRI...THEN ALL ECMWF.


.SEAS...BOTH THE ENP WAVEWATCH AND WAM MODELS WERE TOO LOW WITH
THE SEAS OFF THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COAST THIS MRNG...THOUGH
THE WAM WAS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE OBS. BY TNGT...MODELS ARE SMLR
AND EXPECT SEAS TO BE CLOSE TO MODEL FCST. THE MODELS ARE SLMR
THRU MON NGT...THEN THE GFS BRINGS IN NW SWELL TO THE NRN WATERS
AHD OF THE WAM. LATER IN THE FCST...THE WAM DVLPS HIGHER SEAS OFF
THE CA COAST WHERE IT HAS THE HIGHER WINDS. WL POPULATE THE GRIDS
WITH A 50/50 MIX...THEN TRANSITION TO ALL WAM GRIDS BGNG 12Z WED.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER KOSIER/PROSISE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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