Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGPN40 KWNM 271446
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
746 AM PDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ARE STILL NOTED LATER IN THE
EXTENDED. VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST...LOWERED SEAS IN
THE FIRST FEW PERIODS TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

00Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE
EXTENDED TIME PERIOD. WILL POPULATE WIND GRIDS WITH 30M WINDS FROM
THE 00Z GFS THROUGH 18Z SAT...THEN 10M GFS WINDS UNTIL 00Z TUE
WHERE WILL SWITCH TO THE 00Z ECMWF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

LATEST SFC OBS SHOW SOME GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE OFF THE NRN AND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE LATEST
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE 30M GFS WINDS STILL INDICATING
GALES MOVING INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM NEAR CAPE MENDOCINO TO
NEAR PIGEON POINT TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO SAT...WITH SOME MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS HERE AND THERE. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE
TO INDICATE GREATEST CHANCE OF GALES WILL BE IN THE COASTAL
WATERS...WITH A MODERATE CHANCE OF GALES EXTENDING INTO THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. WITH THE CHANCE OF AT LEAST SEEING GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS...AND THE MODELS PERSISTENCE OF
SHOWING AT LEAST NEAR GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS...WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE WARNINGS IN THIS PACKAGE.

IN THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD...GFS LOOKS TO BE A BIT TOO FAST IN
WEAKENING THE RIDGE THAT MOVES INTO THE NW WATERS. BOTH THE ECMWF
AND THE UKMET AGREE IN KEEPING THE RIDGE A LITTLE STRONGER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THUS PREFERRED
THE 00Z ECMWF FOR THE WIND GRIDS STARTING 00Z TUE.


.SEAS...ENP VERSION OF WWIII A LITTLE UNDERDONE JUST S OF
VANCOUVER ISLAND AS COMPARED TO LATEST SFC OBS. OTHERWISE...MODEL
WITHIN A FT OR TWO OF CURRENT OBS. WILL POPULATE 00Z ENP UNTIL 00Z
TUE...THEN SWITCH TO THE 00Z ECMWF WAVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS S OF VANCOUVER ISLAND TODAY TO
REFLECT INITIAL CONDITIONS. HAVE ALSO BUMPED SEAS BY A FT IN THE
GALE AREA TODAY INTO SAT.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO SAT.
.PZZ825...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO SAT.
.PZZ830...INNER WATERS FROM PIGEON POINT TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS...
     GALE TONIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER SOMMERVILLE/ACHORN. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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