Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGPN40 KWNM 222152
MIMPAC

Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
152 PM PST SUN JAN 22 2017

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W.

The Satellite imagery still shows cyclonic circulation center
over the north waters and still mostly coudy skies. The lightning
density map still has scattered lightning strikes mainly over the
central waters. The SREF_TSTMS model now has PROB 30 for severe
TSTMS over the central waters and is expected to remain that way
and spread into the rest of the northern waters MON. The latest
observations including scatterometer passes at 1754Z indicate
higher winds over the northern waters now in the storm force
range. At 1800Z, the NCEP weather map now has Low pressure 971 mb
just w of the northern waters with an occludded front stretching
east across the WA waters then curves south and continues as
southeast as a wrm front and southwest as a cold front across the
southern waters. The pressure gradient is very tight over northern
waters. Farther west over the western pacific along 50N near the
dateline is another low pressure 951 mb with hurricane force
winds.

The models GFS/CMC/UKMETHR/ECMWFHR depict an upperlevel trough
with intense energy covering the region. In the short term the
enrgy will linger about the region waters and that will keep a
tight pressure across the waters. An upperlevel ridge with little
energy will move into the region mid week and that will force the
pressure gradient to relax and allow the winds to diminish to
belwo gale force threshold.

The models GFS/CMC/ECMWFHR/UKMETHR/NAM/NOGAPS have initialized
fairly well with the 12Z observations. The models are also in good
agreement in the short term with just minor differences in the
long range. Will continue using GFS as the main model guidance. In
the short term, Low pressure will drift e into the waters and will
maintain a tight pressure gradient keeping elevated winds over the
northern waters.

.SEAS...he largest seas are over the OR waters with peak at 27 ft.
Otherwise the seas are still modest, above 12 ft, across the
forecast region. NWW3 wave model still fits very well with he
observed 18Z seas pattern and is also close to the ECMWFWAVE
model. Both wave models have been quite persistent in the previous
runs and they are still in good agreement through most of the
forecast period. Will stay with NWW3 for the seas.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...n/a.

.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters...
.PZZ800...Inner Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Gale tonight into Monday.
     Gale Possible Thursday night into Friday night.
.PZZ900...Outer Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Storm tonight.
     Gale Monday.
     Gale Possible Thursday into Friday night.
.PZZ805...Inner Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Gale tonight into Monday.
     Gale Possible Friday into Friday night.
.PZZ905...Outer Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Storm tonight.
     Gale Monday.
     Gale Possible Thursday night into Friday night.
.PZZ810...Inner Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
     Gale tonight.
.PZZ910...Outer Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
     Gale tonight into Monday.
     Gale Possible Friday into Friday night.
.PZZ815...Inner Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale tonight into Monday.
.PZZ915...Outer Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale tonight into Monday night.
     Gale Possible Friday night.

.PZ6 California Waters...
.PZZ820...Inner Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale Monday.
.PZZ920...Outer Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale tonight into Monday night.
.PZZ925...Outer Waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point...
     Gale Monday into Tuesday.
.PZZ930...Outer Waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas...
     Gale Monday night into Tuesday.
.PZZ935...Outer Waters from Point Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA...
     Gale tonight.
.PZZ940...Outer Waters from Santa Cruz Island, CA to 120W...
     Gale tonight.

$$

.Forecaster Musonda. Ocean Prediction Center.


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