Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 121850
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
248 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

VALID JUL 12/1200 UTC THRU JUL 16/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

==============================================
12Z MODEL EVALUATION AND PREFERENCES
==============================================
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO
SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THEIR LARGE SCALE OUTPUT.
==============================================

...DEEP CYCLONE DROPPING INTO MICHIGAN MONDAY/TUESDAY...

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12Z GFS/UKMET
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

TRENDS IN THE 12Z CYCLE TODAY SUPPORTED A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION
FOR THE MOVEMENT OF SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE BASE OF THIS DEEPENING
TROUGH. MODEL-RELATIVE PERFORMANCE SEEMS UNCHANGED...WITH THE
ECMWF STILL MARKING THE OUTER EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE ON THE
DEEP/SLOW SIDE...AND THE NAM/GFS LEANING TOWARD THE FAST SIDE. THE
MORE STABLE CONSENSUS SOLUTION WOULD RESEMBLE THE 00Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS/GEFS AND 12Z
UKMET. THE NAM BECOMES DEEPER THAN CONSENSUS OVER THE MIDWEST ON
DAY 3...AND IS FASTER WITH SHORTWAVES INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE
PERHAPS FILLING THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC
PREMATURELY.


...SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE MODELS ARE REASONABLY SIMILAR IN THEIR PREDICTIONS OF THE
TIMING AND DEPTH OF THIS FEATURE AT 700-500 MB...AND IN THEIR
PRECIPITATION OUTPUT.


...INVERTED UPPER TROUGH SKIRTING THE SOUTHWEST U.S...

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE SAME AS WAS WRITTEN IN THE SECTION ABOVE COULD BE STATED
REGARDING THIS SYSTEM. MODELS ARE SIMILAR. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN CARRYING AN ANOMALOUS MOIST PLUME WEST THROUGH
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. EVEN THE MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS PRODUCES A
PLUME OF 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY...OPENING
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOWARD LOS
ANGELES AND EVEN WESTWARD...AS WELL AS AN EXPANSION OF ACTIVITY
NORTHWARD INTO THE SIERRAS.

...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...
...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

BURKE

$$





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