Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS48 KWNS 161002
SWOD48
SPC AC 161000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The medium range models including the ECMWF and GFS begin the day 4
to 8 period with an upper-level trough over the southern high Plains
and move the system eastward across the southern Plains on
Thursday/Day 4. The ECMWF solution appears to have the best handle
on Thursday`s scenario with a low-level jet over the lower
Mississippi Valley and the warm sector over Louisiana, Mississippi
and Alabama. A severe threat appears possible Thursday afternoon
from the mouth of the Mississippi River northward into southern and
central Mississippi but weak instability precludes a highlight at
this time. On Friday/Day 5, a negatively tilted upper-level trough
is forecast to move across the southern Plains as southwest
mid-level flow becomes established across the Gulf Coast States.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the Gulf Coast on
Friday. On Saturday/Day 6, both the ECMWF and GFS solutions bring a
powerful 90 to 110 kt mid-level jet across northern Mexico. The exit
region of the mid-level jet is forecast to spread eastward across
the central Gulf Coast on Saturday as strong moisture advection
takes place. The setup could be supportive of a severe weather
event. The models appear to be in good enough agreement to add a
severe weather area on Saturday across parts of the central and
eastern Gulf Coast States. On Sunday/Day 7, the upper-level trough
is forecast to move into the central Gulf Coast States as moisture
advection takes place ahead of the system. A severe weather threat
will be possible across the eastern Gulf Coast States northward into
the Carolinas. On Monday/Day 8, the system is forecast to move off
the Atlantic Coast ending the severe weather potential across the
continental United States.

..Broyles.. 01/16/2017



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