Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS48 KWNS 190902
SWOD48
SPC AC 190901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Some differences exists within the medium-range guidance regarding
the progression of the mature system likely centered over the
central Plains at the beginning of the period (12Z Monday). However,
the overall progression is similar with the system moving off the
Northeast coast late Tuesday or early Wednesday. Some thunderstorms
are possible Monday as the front associated with this system
interacts with the more moist and unstable air along the Gulf Coast.
Some severe cannot be ruled out, particularly along the central Gulf
Coast, but limited instability should keep the overall severe threat
low.

Models are showing relatively good model-to-model and run-to-run
consistency regarding upper ridging across the Plains on Wednesday
and Thursday before another more substantial shortwave trough moves
into the region on Friday. Even so, uncertainty regarding moisture
return and resulting instability ahead of this system as well as
typical uncertainties at this range (i.e. Day 7) lead to low
forecast confidence.

..Mosier.. 01/19/2018


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