Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS48 KWNS 300832
SWOD48
SPC AC 300831

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

VALID 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONVERGING
TOWARDS A SCENARIO FOR A DISTURBANCE TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON DAY 5 /FRIDAY/.  AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIKELY
NEWD FRINGE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.  THE DAY-5 /FRIDAY/ SPEED MAX OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND ERN U.S. AND A
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE ERN U.S.
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY4-8 PERIOD--RENDERING LOW POTENTIAL
FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM THREAT.

..SMITH.. 05/30/2016



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