Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS48 KWNS 200947
SWOD48
SPC AC 200945

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Models continue to indicate the synoptic upper pattern will remain
dominated by a mean trough over the eastern U.S. with an upstream
ridge in the west. Overall severe threat should be low in this
regime. At least a marginal severe threat could evolve over FL from
late day 4 (Thursday) to day 5 (Friday) when models indicate a
vorticity maximum moving through the base of the southern-stream
trough will induce a weak cyclone over the eastern Gulf, along with
some increase in vertical shear near a warm/stationary front.
However, solutions continue to differ regarding the strength of this
feature, and the thermodynamic environment will likely remain very
marginal which lowers overall predictability and severe potential.

..Dial.. 11/20/2017



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