Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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843
ACUS48 KWNS 071000
SWOD48
SPC AC 070959

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CST Wed Dec 07 2016

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models remain in general agreement suggesting a broad,
low-amplitude upper flow pattern should develop across the much of
the contiguous U.S. this weekend into early next week (day
4/Saturday through at least day 7/Tuesday).  Despite this
similarity, the 00Z ECMWF and GFS continue to differ in the timing
and amplification of the day-3 Pacific trough, as it tracks farther
inland to the central states.  This combined with uncertainty in the
degree of moisture return across the Texas coastal plain to perhaps
east Texas and Louisiana provides for low confidence to include a
15-percent severe weather area across portions of the northwest Gulf
Coast region on day 5/Sunday.

..Peters.. 12/07/2016



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