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000
ACUS01 KWNS 190059
SWODY1
SPC AC 190057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PART OF NORTHEAST ID AND
NORTHWEST MT....

...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ ALONG THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT UPSCALE GROWTH OF ONE OR MORE MCS/S YET THIS
EVENING...WITH ONE AFFECTING THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...AND A SECOND ONE
ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS.  A POTENTIAL THIRD MCS MAY DEVELOP INTO WRN
NEB.  HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

...NE ID/NW MT...
THIS OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS REGION.
ALTHOUGH PARTS OF THIS AREA HAVE BEEN STABILIZED BY ONGOING
CONVECTION...AN INCREASE IN FORCING FOR ASCENT AS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH MOVES INLAND SHOULD PROMOTE FURTHER STRONG
UPDRAFTS. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM DETAILS...REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION 1125.

...LOWER OH VALLEY...
A CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SWD INTO KY AND WEAKEN IN
INTENSITY AS THIS ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE AIR MASS.
MEANWHILE...A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF
THIS LINE OF STORMS ACROSS SERN IL/SWRN IND...ATTENDANT TO STRONGER
FORCING FOR ASCENT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ESEWD THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY. WEAK INSTABILITY/SHEAR VALUES WILL FURTHER LIMIT THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT THIS EVENING.

...CAROLINAS SWWD TO SRN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THIS EVENING...WHILE ASCENT ALONG THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL TSTMS INVOF A NE-SW ORIENTED FRONT
ADVANCING EWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL/ERN CAROLINAS.  RESIDUAL POCKETS
OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE FULL EXTENT OF THIS DISCUSSION AREA COULD
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING.  THE
GREATEST THREAT AREA SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS ERN NC...AS THIS REGION
WILL BE CLOSER TO STRONGER ASCENT ALOFT AND 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR.

..PETERS.. 06/19/2013