Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS01 KWNS 240112
SWODY1
SPC AC 240110

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0810 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA EAST INTO CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S....

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
ARKLATEX WEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible tonight
from portions of the Ohio Valley east into the northeast U.S.  A few
severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail will also be possible
across parts of the southeast States and from the Arklatex into the
southern Plains.

A frontal boundary, punctuated by convective outflows, extended from
the lower Great Lakes into the southern Plains at 01z.  Surface low
pressure, the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy, was located over
north-central Kentucky.  In areas near/south of the front
unperturbed by convection, a moist/weakly buoyant air mass remains
in place.  Aloft, broadly cyclonic mid-level flow exists from the
central/northern Plains east across the mid-Atlantic region and New
England.  Stronger low- and mid-level flow will gradually shift east
into portions of the mid Atlantic and northeast states overnight.

...Ohio/Tennessee Valley into the Northeast U.S....
Reference MCD number 1142 for latest short-term thinking
Some risk for organized storms is expected to persist into the
overnight hours as the cold front moves steadily east and the
surface low over northern Kentucky accelerates northeast in
proximity to the front.  Although instability will generally be
weak, strengthening wind fields will result in increasing deep-layer
shear in the 45-55 kt range overnight.  Weak impulses aloft,
possibly convectively modulated, will lift northeast across the
region providing subtle large-scale ascent. High-resolution guidance
continues to suggest additional thunderstorm development overnight,
possible in short line segments, in an environment favorable for
damaging winds and perhaps a tornado.  Will maintain the Slight Risk
overnight for this scenario.

...North Georgia west to Arklatex...
Reference MCD number 1143 for latest short-term thinking across the
Arklatex region. Otherwise, will maintain Marginal Risk areas for
isolated damaging wind potential with ongoing storms, and some
potential for additional development later this evening.

...Central/north Texas and southern Oklahoma...
An increase in thunderstorm development is anticipated later this
evening and tonight in association with weak isentropic ascent north
of the frontal boundary. Effective shear will be sufficient for some
degree of storm organization posing a risk for isolated strong winds
and hail.

..Bunting.. 06/24/2017

$$


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