Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS01 KWNS 191618
SWODY1
SPC AC 191616

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated marginally severe hail and thunderstorm gusts are possible
this afternoon into early evening over a portion of southern New
Mexico and far west Texas.

...Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas...

In wake of lead impulse over southeast NM, a secondary vorticity
maximum located over central AZ will advance east today, reaching
NM later this afternoon into evening. Between these two features,
visible satellite imagery shows an area of clearing spreading east
through southwest toward south-central NM where surface dewpoints
are near 50F. Diabatic warming in presence of steep mid-level lapse
rates will contribute to marginal (400-800 J/kg) MLCAPE and deeply
mixed, inverted-v boundary layers this afternoon. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop over the higher terrain of central through
southwestern NM and increase in coverage with approach of deeper
forcing for ascent attending the upstream shortwave trough. While
vertical shear will remain weak and supportive of multicells, the
thermodynamic environment will promote at least a marginal risk for
a few instances of hail and locally strong wind gusts later this
afternoon into early evening.

..Dial.. 10/19/2017

$$



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