Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 180527
SWODY1
SPC AC 180525

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND COASTAL GEORGIA.  A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY
ALSO DEVELOP FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
FROM SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO NORTHERN UTAH.  GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE
THE PRIMARY THREATS.

...COASTAL SC/GA...

MEAN LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE ERN U.S.
THROUGH THE UPCOMING DAY1 PERIOD WITH MODEST NWLY FLOW ON THE ORDER
OF 15-20KT AT 500MB FORECAST ACROSS GA/SC DURING THE DAY.  LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD FOCUS NEAR THE COAST WITH INTERIOR BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING EXPECTED TO AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY MID-DAY.  LATEST
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 2000 J/KG SBCAPE SHOULD BE UNCAPPED
BY 18Z AND ANY STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THIS DIURNALLY ENHANCED SEA
BREEZE SHOULD DRIFT SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST.


...KS TO THE ARKLATEX...

SEVERAL BOUTS OF WARM-ADVECTION CONVECTION ACROSS ERN KS/SRN MO
SHOULD FORCE EFFECTIVE SFC BOUNDARY SWWD TO A POSITION FROM SCNTRL
KS...SEWD INTO THE ARKLATEX.  WITH SFC PRESSURES EXPECTED TO RISE
ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY THIS FRONT SHOULD BE DISPLACED A BIT
FARTHER SW ON THURSDAY WHERE A CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONG
HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO 2500-3000 J/KG SBCAPE WITHIN MODEST
WARM ADVECTION REGIME.  GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION...SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A FEW
TSTM CLUSTERS DEVELOPED OVER SRN MO AND PROPAGATED SSWWD.


...SRN MT TO NRN UT...

SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
REGION TO A POSITION FROM WRN MT...ERN ID INTO NV BY PEAK HEATING.
STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AND HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP BY 22-23Z WITHIN DEEP SWLY FLOW REGIME
CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST BULK SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6KM...ROUGHLY
30-35KT.  GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD BE NOTED WITH
THIS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION.

..DARROW/COHEN.. 09/18/2014



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