Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS03 KWNS 240729
SWODY3
SPC AC 240728

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST UNITED STATES.

...UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY/NORTHEAST STATES INCLUDING WV/PA/NY...
IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
CLOSED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ADJACENT ONTARIO ON MONDAY...WITH A
RELATED STEADY STRENGTHENING OF DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...AT LEAST MODEST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING IS EXPECTED TO PRECEDE AN EASTWARD-MOVING COLD
FRONT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR 60F SURFACE DEWPOINTS REACHING
AS FAR NORTHEAST AS WESTERN PA WITHIN A RELATIVELY NARROW
PRE-FRONTAL MOIST CORRIDOR. WHILE AMPLE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
INCREASINGLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WOULD
CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT FAST-MOVING LINES OF CONVECTION NEAR AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...THE AMOUNT OF PRE-FRONTAL DESTABILIZATION APPEARS
QUESTIONABLE.

WHILE EARLY-DAY PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER-RELATED UNCERTAINTIES AT
THE DAY 3 JUNCTURE CURRENTLY PRECLUDE SEVERE
PROBABILITIES...SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS WILL REEXAMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AT LEAST LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES RELATED TO THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

..GUYER.. 09/24/2016

$$


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