Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS03 KWNS 300525
SWODY3
SPC AC 300524

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.  GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL COULD BE NOTED WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

...NORTHERN PLAINS...

UPPER LOW THAT EJECTS INTO SK SUNDAY WILL STALL DURING THE DAY3
PERIOD BEFORE EJECTING INTO MB LATER TUESDAY...IN RESPONSE TO
PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER BC/WA/ORE.  WHILE THE LEAD SYSTEM
WILL KEEP THE RIDGE SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.  FOR
THIS REASON IT APPEARS STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING WILL BE THE
PRIMARY INSTIGATOR FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
THAT SHOULD ORIENT ITSELF FROM SRN MB...SWWD TO NEAR THE BLACK HILLS
OF SD.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SFC PARCELS SHOULD REACH
THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AS READINGS RISE THROUGH THE 90S OVER
WRN SD...WITH MID-UPPER 80S LIKELY BEING SUFFICIENT OVER NRN ND.
ANY STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE WIND SHIFT WILL BE ADEQUATELY SHEARED
FOR DEEP ROTATION AS SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF
40KT.  HAIL/WIND MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGEST SUPERCELLS THAT EVOLVE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.  MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS ALLOWS THIS
ACTIVITY TO SPREAD INTO NWRN MN DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

..DARROW.. 07/30/2016

$$


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