Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS03 KWNS 230715
SWODY3
SPC AC 230714

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
VERY SLOW/MINOR PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY /DAY 3/...THOUGH THE OVERALL WRN TROUGH/CENTRAL RIDGE/ERN
TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST.  AT THE SURFACE...A LOW IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...BUT OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL E OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY.  FARTHER
W...LEE TROUGHING WILL AGAIN SERVE AS A MAIN FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE A VERY SIMILAR DAY TO FRIDAY /DAY 2/...WITH
THE RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND RESULTING LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/CAPPING LARGELY HINDERING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT/INTENSITY.  WHILE VERY ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
AGAIN EXIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...SOMEWHAT
GREATER THREAT MAY EVOLVE ACROSS THE ERN MT/WRN SD VICINITY DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON.

HERE...MODELS HINT THAT A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE FEATURE MAY EJECT
NEWD AROUND THE SERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN WRN TROUGH TOWARD THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS.  AS THIS OCCURS...CAP WEAKENING AND ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE NEAR THE LEE TROUGH/WITHIN UPSLOPING
LOW-LEVEL SELYS.  WITH 35 KT SWLYS AT MID LEVELS ANTICIPATED...SHEAR
WOULD SUPPORT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/ROTATION AND ATTENDANT SEVERE
POTENTIAL.  THUS -- WILL FOCUS LOW SEVERE PROBABILITY ACROSS THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS REGION THIS FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 05/23/2013
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