Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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902
ACUS03 KWNS 260721
SWODY3
SPC AC 260721

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...ARKLATEX...OZARKS AND LOWER MO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ARKLATEX...OZARKS AND LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY.

...SRN PLAINS/ARKLATEX...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND
MID MS VALLEY ON SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS EXTENDING
NNEWD INTO THE ARKLATEX. IN SPITE OF THIS...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
SHOULD BE WEAK ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONCENTRATED NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND AREAS WITH ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO
ACROSS NORTH TX AND ERN OK WHERE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MLCAPE VALUES COULD REACH 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. BECAUSE OF THE STRONG
INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW TO
MID-LEVELS...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL WITH LARGE HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO WEAK IN MOST
AREAS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

...OZARKS/LOWER MO VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND
LOWER MO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH IS FORECAST
ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY EXTENDING SWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. ALONG
AND TO THE EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH...MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AND MOVE NEWD
INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN
CNTRL AND NRN MO AT 00Z/SUNDAY SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S F
ALONG WITH MLCAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. WIND PROFILES SHOW SOME
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS BUT KEEP 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES GENERALLY BELOW 25 KT. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT
MARGINAL ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS COULD OCCUR NEAR PEAK HEATING.

..BROYLES.. 05/26/2016

$$



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