Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS03 KWNS 231539
SWODY3
SPC AC 231539

Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1039 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE TEXAS COAST AND VICINITY...

AMENDED FOR ADDITION OF A MARGINAL AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
COAST AND VICINITY

...SUMMARY...
The risk for a few tornadoes and severe-thunderstorm wind gusts may
affect the Texas Coast on Friday and especially Friday night, in
association with Tropical Cyclone Harvey.

...Day 3 Convective Outlook Amendment...
The circulation in the Bay of Campeche has regenerated into Tropical
Depression Harvey, and the National Hurricane Center has
re-initiated advisories on this system. The latest NHC advisory
specifies that Harvey is forecast to approach the coast of Texas
late Friday. On its forecast track, the northeast quadrant of this
system (and nearby portions of adjacent quadrants) -- i.e.,
associated with some tornado and severe-thunderstorm wind
potential -- will affect portions of the Texas Coast and vicinity
throughout the Day-3/Friday period. This should especially be the
case Friday night, as convective elements and low-topped
mini-supercells with feeder bands move onshore. Given the recent
regeneration of Harvey, with the issuance of a Hurricane Watch for
portions of the Texas Coast, the Day 3 Convective Outlook has been
updated to add a Marginal area for portions of the Texas Coast and
vicinity to account for tornado and severe-thunderstorm wind
potential. Adjustments to this area, along with the potential for
Slight Risk delineation, may become necessary in subsequent
outlooks, as the system continues to evolve and more precise details
are ascertained regarding the exact corridor of increased
buoyancy/shear parameter-space favoring tornado potential.

Otherwise, the forecast for sub-5-percent severe probabilities
across the remainder of the contiguous United States remains
unchanged.

..Cohen/Bunting.. 08/23/2017

$$


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