Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS03 KWNS 030731
SWODY3
SPC AC 030730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT MON AUG 03 2015

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE LOWER-MID
MS VALLEY AND WRN TN VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND WRN TN VALLEY REGION...

THOUGH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THAT A SIGNIFICANT VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL MOVE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN TN VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
REMAIN SITUATED FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AREA WWD THROUGH KS. AS THE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHIFTS EWD...THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO ADVANCE SWD
INTO OK DURING THE DAY. IT IS LIKELY THAT AREAS OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FROM ERN KS INTO MO WHERE DEEPER ASCENT WILL BE
MAXIMIZED AS A RESULT OF THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ATTENDANT LLJ
INTERACTING WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD WITH
TIME...AND SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE WARM SECTOR TO
DESTABILIZE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS...ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STRONGER DEEP-LAYER WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.
GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE THREAT DUE LARGELY TO
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PLACEMENT AND EVOLUTION OF EARLY
CONVECTION...HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE A MARGINAL RISK AREA AND
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..DIAL.. 08/03/2015



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