Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
971
ACUS03 KWNS 220709
SWODY3
SPC AC 220708

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY.  THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS WHERE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED.
 ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND MAY ACCOMPANY STRONG CONVECTION
FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

...SOUTHERN/CNTRL PLAINS...

CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AND REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
SIGNIFICANT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS NRN MEXICO TO NEAR
THE RIO GRANDE BY 24/12Z AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD THEN TRACK NEWD
INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.  LARGE SCALE FORCING AND
STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT FAVOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE AS MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE PRESENT.  HAIL...WIND...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TX...PERHAPS EXTENDING TOWARD THE ARKLATEX
IF SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY CAN MATERIALIZE.

FARTHER NORTH...WEAKER SHEAR AND LESS INSTABILITY FAVOR MORE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY ALONG DRY LINE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS.
WEAKER FORCING ALSO SUGGESTS ACTIVITY MAY BE LESS ORGANIZED AND
FOCUSED.  EVEN SO...STRONG HEATING SHOULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND
HAIL/WIND COULD BE NOTED WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION.

..DARROW.. 05/22/2015




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.