Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 290547
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290547
KSZ000-NEZ000-290645-

Mesoscale Discussion 1181
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Areas affected...Portions of far southern Nebraska and
northern/central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 290547Z - 290645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of large hail
and perhaps isolated damaging gusts tonight, and a severe
thunderstorm watch may be needed.

DISCUSSION...VWP data from Kansas and southern Nebraska tonight
indicate the terminus of a southwesterly low-level jet is focused
near the Kansas/Nebraska border. As such, related warm-air advection
and speed convergence are likely fueling thunderstorms rooted above
a low-level stable layer. DDC and TOP 00Z soundings sampled steep
700-500mb lapse rates, adequate for vigorous updraft accelerations.
Additionally, westerly mid-level flow of 30-40 kt is offering
sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization/rotation.
Therefore, a continued threat of occasional large hail is expected.
Through the night, storms will likely further form along and north
of an outflow boundary stretching across northern Kansas, and
upscale growth may yield a downwind-propagating component to the
southeast. Such an evolution may offer some potential for downdraft
momentum to penetrate a low-level stable layer, resulting in
isolated damaging gusts as well. Considering these threats, a severe
thunderstorm watch may be needed.

..Picca/Edwards.. 06/29/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38689959 38920005 39410016 40040016 40309997 40349937
            40339885 40139752 39839655 38899589 38189630 38129778
            38689959



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