Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 222048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222048
COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-222245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1757
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 222048Z - 222245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
A BRIEF TORNADO MAY DEVELOP AS CELLS INITIATE AND STRENGTHEN. WW
ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO.

DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS AT 2030Z SHOWS A LEE TROUGH TO THE EAST OF
THE FRONT RANGE WITH A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING NWD
ACROSS ERN CO INTO FAR WRN NEB WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S F. SFC TEMPS IN NERN CO ARE NOW IN THE MID 70S F WITH
LOWER TO MID 80S REPORTED IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY OF SERN CO.
AS RESULT...SBCAPE IS ESTIMATED ABOVE 1000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF ERN
CO WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT COMING OUT OF THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH SHOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR WHICH DEVELOPS
STORMS IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND MOVES THIS CONVECTION ONTO THE
NERN PLAINS OF CO IN THE 22Z TO 23Z TIMEFRAME. IN ADDITION...THE
LATEST WSR-88D VWP IN NERN CO SHOW SOME VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN THE
LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH 25 TO 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS ALONG WITH
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL. IN THE CASE A SUPERCELL CAN ORGANIZE...A BRIEF
TORNADO WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF LINEAR ORGANIZATION IS FAVORED AS
IS SUGGESTED BY SOME SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS...THEN STRONG WIND
GUSTS MAY BE THE GREATEST THREAT.

..BROYLES/MEAD.. 09/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   40820254 41070340 40940492 39900529 38270516 37850413
            38190246 39880225 40820254




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