Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 302133
SPC MCD 302133

Mesoscale Discussion 0382
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0433 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Areas affected...Western/central FL Panhandle...Far southeast
AL...Far southwest GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 302133Z - 302300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Convective line approaching the region may pose a risk for
damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. Trends across the region
will be monitored for possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Well-developed convective line extending from far
southern AL into the northeast Gulf of Mexico is expected to
continue eastward/northeastward over the next several hours. Current
storm motion estimate for this line is northeastward (230-240
degrees) at 40 kt, which brings it near VPS around 22Z and to ECP
around 23Z. The airmass downstream of the line across the
west/central FL Panhandle and southeast AL/southwest GA is
characterized by temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s, dewpoints
in mid 50s to mid 60s, and modest instability. Mesoanalysis
estimates the MLCAPE is currently around 500 J/kg. Low-level
southeasterly flow ahead of the line will help advect better
low-level moisture into the region, resulting in a modest increase
in instability just ahead of the line. This southeasterly low-level
flow will also contribute to better low-level shear, resulting in a
non-zero tornado threat, particularly given the anticipated
moistening of the airmass. Additionally, some forward propagation of
the line may result, contributing to increased threat for damaging
wind gusts. However, coverage of these severe events is currently
expected to be isolated, owing primarily the limited extent of the
better low-level moisture and the resulting less-favorable
thermodynamics inland from the coastal areas. Even so, the
well-developed nature of the approaching line bears watching and
trends across the region will be monitored closely for potential
watch issuance.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 03/30/2017

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON   30248710 30768714 31198700 31288573 31078505 30708460
            29578491 30108591 30248710 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.