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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 291456
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM ULIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192016
800 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2016

Ulika`s cloud pattern continues to have a sheared appearance this
morning, with only a small area of bursting deep convection to the
east of the estimated low-level center location.  The initial
intensity is set at 40 kt, which is a blend of Dvorak estimates from
SAB and TAFB.  A very hostile dynamic environment lies ahead of
Ulika, with westerly shear forecast to increase to 40-50 kt in 36
hours.  Given such unfavorable conditions, the system should
degenerate into a remnant low by the weekend, or sooner.

The cyclone has turned toward the northwest, and the initial motion
is estimated to be around 320/6 kt.  The flow on the southern side
of a weak low- to mid-level ridge should cause Ulika to turn toward
the west-northwest and then west over the next couple of days.  The
official track forecast is between the latest GFS and ECMWF tracks
and only a little bit north of the previous NHC forecast.

The next advisory on Ulika will be issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 16.7N 139.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 17.3N 140.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 17.8N 141.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 18.0N 143.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  01/1200Z 18.0N 145.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch




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