739
FXUS63 KARX 031838
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
135 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered storms expected to spark in a northwest-southeast
orientation along a sfc front/mcv interaction early this evening,
continuing into the overnight. Currently favored for western WI.
Strong, isolated severe threat in the evening.

- 4th Of July Weekend: hot, steamy start...cooler, less humid end.
Bulk of rain chances Sat aft/night (60-80%). Locally heavy rain
likely. A few stronger storms possible, severe risk low at this
time.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

> Late Afternoon/Tonight: scattered convection expected - a few
strong storms, isolated severe possible

A northwest-southeast running sfc boundary (clearly evidenced in
current vsby satellite imagery) is set to hover across parts of
central MN/WI late this afternoon/night. Weakly frontogenetic but a
broad push of 20 kts of 850 mb moisture impinge into it by 00z this
evening. SBCAPES of 2K+ J/kg in the HRRR/RAP overlap this weak lift,
but in an uncapped atmosphere. Scattered storms should develop along
this boundary, as early as late afternoon although most CAMS models
favor around 00z. Quick upscale growth could occur given the
instability but meager deep shear of 20-25 kts won`t provide much
support to sustained updrafts. Could be more pulsy in nature,
throwing out outflows that will interact and spark further
convection. However, DCAPES in RAP of 1000+ J/kg are supportive of
strong downdrafts, further evidenced by inverted V soundings. Expect
a few strong storms with the potential for isolated severe. Damaging
wind gusts would be the primary concern.

Moving into mid/late evening, an MCV moving out of the northern
plains will be shifting across WI, interacting with the boundary and
any preexisting convection. Could/would see more areal coverage in
showers/storms, and with a slight uptick in shear and persisting
instability a loft, a continue strong to isolated severe storm risk.
Large hail could come into play here with low level inversion
providing a deterrent to strong/damaging wind gusts.


> 4th Of July Holiday Weekend

-OVERVIEW: an upper level ridge currently sits over the plains this
morning and will shift east to across the upper mississippi river
valley by Friday afternoon. Warmer, more moist air continues to pool
northward under the ridge with increasing southerly/southwest flow.
Steam day Friday.

The ridge will continue to move east moving into the weekend,
getting a shove from a shortwave trough spinning northeast out of
the southern rockies. While the bulk of the upper level energy/lift
may hold north of the local forecast area, an accompanying cold front
is set to sweep west to east Sat afternoon/night, likely in
northeast-southwest running orientation. Fgen with boundary is
somewhat weak with saggy pressure gradient, southwest winds just
ahead of the front, and no strong cold air advection signals post
it. Still, with an unstable airmass to work on, its plenty of lift
for shower/storm production.

The front looks to become more parallel to the upper level flow as
it sags southward early Sun morning while the parent shortwave and
sfc low slip over the great lakes. Rain chances likely to linger
into Sun morning as a result, but mostly for southwest/central WI.
Cooler and less humid air will drop in Sunday post the front.


- TEMPS: highs still on track to top out around 90 (plus/minus a
couple degrees) Friday. Coupled with dewpoints around 70 results in
peak heat indices from the mid 90s to near 100 Friday afternoon. Not
quite hot enough for a heat advisory - but a scenario that should be
taken seriously. With the abundance of outdoor activities, the
holiday, and most taking advantage of a day off - lots of
opportunities to be impacted by the heat. Awareness followed by
appropriate precautions to protect from the heat are a must.

The holiday weekend will end more "comfortable" with the passing
cold front dropping highs back into the upper 70s/lower 80s with a
bit less humidity to boot Sunday.


- RAIN CHANCES: timing has been shifting to "later" in the weekend
over the past few days with recent GEFS and EPS runs settling in on
Sat afternoon/night having the highest chances (likelihood) to get
wet. As mentioned in the "overview", the threat for rain could
persist into Sun morning, but mostly for southwest/central WI, in
the vicinity of the sfc front.

While there will be rain to work around, dodge this holiday weekend,
those planning on watching the fireworks Friday evening should be
pretty happy. Most will be rain free - but can`t guarantee that for
everyone...quite yet. The sfc boundary that will likely spark storms
this evening along with an associated weak MCV a loft could be
lingering in a north-south fashion over central WI for early Fri
evening. They could be enough to pop isolated convection. A ton of
uncertainty and ample "IFs" for this scenario - but given that it`s
the holiday, it`s a scenario that needs to be monitored, even if
it`s a low probability right now.

For Sat/Sat PWs still looking to push north of 2" with warm cloud
depths upwards of 4.5 kft. Storms would be heavy rain producers. How
widespread. movement and orientation come into play for any
potential for flooding. Currently, north-south orientation and even
modest eastward movement would work against repeated rounds of
storms, higher accumulations. The upper 75% of the GEFS and EPS for
QPF are generally under 3/4" for the period. However, the high end
outliers push to 1 1/2". With a lot of campers by waterways,
awareness for locally heavy rain impacts should be at the fore front.

Along with that, plenty of instability to fuel at least a few
stronger storms. Little if any deep layer shear concerns, limiting a
severe threat. Not to be disregarded out of hand, but the threat for
organized severe weather looks low at this time.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Isolated thunderstorms are possible again this afternoon into the
overnight hours, primarily after 20z. Probabilities for any one
location seeing a thunderstorm remains low this afternoon, generally
less than 30%, but areas along a line from the Twin Cities to
Madison, WI are most likely to see showers/storms as we head into
the evening (40-50%). MVFR to IFR ceilings/visibility are possible
under thunderstorms. Showers and storms move into central Wisconsin
Friday morning. Otherwise, southerly winds persist into Friday. &&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rieck
AVIATION...Falkinham