Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 301104
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
600 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

The upper low currently located over eastern Kansas at 08Z will
move into the Ohio Valley by Friday morning with the surface low
tracking from KS/MO this morning into northern Ohio. Stronger 850
mb moisture transport has been shunted east this morning, focusing
the heaviest precip mainly to the south and east of the area.
However, weak isentropic upglide will continue through much of the
day with some mid-level frontogenesis bands pivoting around the
low. This forcing will keep occasional showers over the area
today, if not some drizzle, with saturation from the surface to
over 800 mb with some weak ascent in the layer. However, With the
low clouds and showers/drizzle, temps won`t budge much, with maybe
rises of a few degrees into the upper 30s/low 40s.
Showers/drizzle will linger into tonight, but gradual drying
throughout the column should help to end the precip through the
night.

High pressure begins to build into the area Friday-Friday night. Low-
level moisture will take some time to scour out with clearing
expected from the north through the day on Friday. It may wind up
being cloudy for many areas through much of the day, which could
keep temps in the 40s (50s with more sun). Clearing should continue
as a drier air mass advects into the region on Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Through the weekend into next week a split flow pattern will
persist with a series of upper level troughs crashing ashore
across the Pacific Northwest before eventually closing off over
the southwest CONUS into the plains. Saturday looks to remain dry
as the area remains under the influence of weak high pressure
with seasonable highs in the 50s and some 60s not out of the
question. The first upper low will eject into the plains on
Sunday. The 03.00Z ECMWF maintains more separation between the
upper low and a northern stream trough, but does indicate some
showers across the area within a region of warm advection as a
weaker wave ejects from the parent upper low Saturday night and
Sunday. The GFS is wetter, showing more interaction between the
northern/southern stream systems. GEFS members indicate a good
deal of spread, but overall are higher with QPF and are more
phased with the upper waves than the ECMWF. Either way, more
showers/clouds could hold temps down compared with Saturday.

A period of dry weather then is expected under upper level ridging
early next week ahead of the next upper low approaching from the
west for mid-week. There is some variability among models with
the evolution of the upper low, but at this point 00Z models
indicate increasing rain chances for mid- week as deep moisture is
pulled northward ahead of the surface low/upper wave. Temps
should remain above average through the early and middle part of
next week with highs in the 50s and perhaps some 60s with lows in
the 30s and low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Cigs: going to sit ifr/mvfr today...then mostly mvfr tonight into
Friday as an area low pressure moves east, just south of the TAF
sites. Should clear the low stuff - scatter out - Friday afternoon.

Vsby/wx: showers will persist for the better part of the day,
gradually pulling off to the east this evening. Some vsby
restrictions in the showers possible, generally mvfr when they
occur.

Wind: east winds will becoming northerly tonight as the low shifts
to the east. Gradient will keep speeds around 10kts with a few gusts
today, dropping a few knots for tonight.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...Baumgardt


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