Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 051034
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
634 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

UPPER TROUGH STILL CLOSE BY PROVIDING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
UPPER GREAT LAKES. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING OCCURRING UPSTREAM
TIED TO SFC HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION...SO THOUGH THERE
COULD BE CU FIELD FORM WITH LINGERING COOL AIR AT H85...THINK
OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL PROHIBIT ANY SHRA. A FEW
SPRINKLES FROM ENHANCED CU WOULD PROBABLY BE THE EXTENT OF
IT IF PRECIP WERE TO OCCUR. H85 TEMPS WARM COMPARED TO TUESDAY AND
THERE WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE AND MIXING. TEMPS SHOULD REACH MID 70S
OVER MUCH OF INLAND WEST WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ELSEWHERE. BASED
ON DRY/CHILLY START INLAND THIS MORNING...EXPECT DWPNTS/RH TO FALL
OFF THIS AFTN AWAY FM ONSHORE LAKE BREEZES NEAR GREAT LAKES. WINDS
MAINLY LIGHT BUT SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS ENHANCED BY
LAKE BREEZE COULD BE GUSTY AT KERY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOSES ITS GRIP TONIGHT WITH MORE ZONAL WEST TO
EAST FLOW SETTING UP. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PRODUCING SHRA/TSRA FM ND
AND MT INTO SASKATCHEWAN MOVES OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MAJORITY OF FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE REMAINS OVER MN AND
NORTHWEST ONTARIO CLOSER TO DEVELOPING SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT.
SOUNDINGS ACROSS CWA SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE ABOVE H7 BUT STAYING
DRY IN LOWEST LAYERS. LIFT WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL MOIST LAYER NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE. WILL KEEP WITH INCREASING CLOUDS BUT REMOVE SMALL CHANCES
OF SHOWERS. SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE SOME SPRINKLES WITH THE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION...BUT SINCE THE LIFT IS WEAK AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES MINIMAL...WILL GO WITH DRY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH A SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES 12Z THU. BOTH OF THESE SHORTWAVES HEAD EAST THU NIGHT AND
AFFECT THE AREA FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. ALL MODELS KEEP SOME WEAK 850-
500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SOME MOISTURE IN THE AREA THU
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI NIGHT AND WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
WEST FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN BRING IN SOME CHANCE
POPS LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT INTO THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE
TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER
FOR THU AND FRI. WENT WARMER ON THU BECAUSE POPS WILL BE DELAYED
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR REMAINS AND FORCING IS OFF WELL TO
THE WEST THU MORNING.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
POISED TO COME INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z SAT. THIS TROUGH
SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND IS STILL IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUN. THE
500 MB RIDGE GETS PUSHED BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE ROCKIES 12Z MON.
THE RIDGE GETS AMPLIFIED TUE OVER THE ROCKIES MORE AS A TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL MEAN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL HAVE SOME
POPS INTO MON AS THERE COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS UNDERNEATH
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COULD SET UP WITH DIURNAL HEATING. WILL HAVE
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

DRY AIR MASS OVER THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC HIGH PRES WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. PATCHY
GROUND FOG WITH BRIEF IFR VSBY REMAINS POSSIBLE AT KIWD EARLY THIS
MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD KEEP WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA


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