636
FXUS63 KMQT 140718
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
318 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather continues through Wednesday, then periods of
  showers expected with a few embedded t-storms possible
  Thursday through the weekend.
- Limited fire weather concerns expected in the interior areas
  today and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Sprawling high pressure remains centered around Hudson Bay today,
with light NW winds slowly veering more N/NE today as the high
slowly slides eastward. Another sunny day is expected, though smoke
from upstream wildfires drifting through may make our skies look a
bit hazy. Otherwise, some lake breeze development is expected off of
Superior, which should cause winds near it to back more to the N/NW.
Winds may also become somewhat elevated along the lake breeze,
gusting to around 15mph particularly throughout the eastern UP. Amid
northerly background flow, the lake breeze may be able to move
rather far inland. Temperatures peak well into the 50s and lower 60s
across much of the UP, and perhaps into the mid 60s closer to the WI
border. However, along the Superior shoreline and especially behind
the lake breeze, temperatures may struggle to reach even the lower
50s.

Meanwhile, as mixing deepens with daytime heating, expect dewpoints
to drop back during the afternoon. Much of the interior UP should see
dewpoints falling to the upper 20s to lower 30s, with some spots in
the interior-western UP even reaching the mid 20s. This should yield
RH values crashing into the mid and upper 20s across much of the
western UP, away from the Superior shoreline. The mitigating factor
for wildfire spread, however, remains our fairly light winds.

Temperatures quickly fall back into the 30s overnight with mostly
clear skies, light winds, and a dry airmass leading to a good
radiational cooling night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Another calm and dry day is in store Wednesday as high pressure
ridging begins lifting away from the region while a low pressure
over the Northern Plains begins lifting towards the Upper Great
Lakes. As this occurs, cloud cover generally increases from the west
throughout the day as winds at the surface take more of an easterly
component. That being said, with the high pressure trying to
stubbornly hold on over Lake Superior throughout the day Wednesday,
expect the Lake Superior and Lake Michigan lake breezes to move into
the interior areas throughout the daylight hours, with the Lake
Superior breeze moving closer to Lake Michigan and being the
stronger of the two. With upper to mid level clouds moving overhead
throughout the day, we won`t have as great amounts of incoming solar
radiation that we had yesterday and will have today. However, given
the scattered nature of the cloud cover, temperatures Wednesday will
be just about what they were yesterday, save for possibly being a
bit warmer near the Lake Superior shoreline. Like yesterday and
today, expect to see some limited fire weather concerns across the
interior west and maybe (50% chance) interior east as min RHs get
down to the upper 20 to around 30 percents range. However, even
though interior temperatures are expected to get up to the mid 60s
to around 70 in the interior west Wednesday, with winds being less
than 15 mph, elevated fire weather concerns are not expected.

Rain chances enter the U.P. late Wednesday night/Thursday morning
beginning in the far west as the low pressure begins to arrive over
the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley. Overall, expect some
light rain showers moving across the area Thursday, with maybe (20%
chance) a few embedded thunderstorms mixed in here and there by the
afternoon hours. Once we start pushing into the latter portions of
this week, model solutions among the differing suites rapidly
diverge as each handles the quickness of the low`s passage uniquely
(as well as the shortwave lows behind it into this weekend). That
being said, the different model suites do tell a general story for
the rest of the extended period (albeit with greatly varied
timings); ultimately, expect multiple shortwaves to impact the area
this weekend into early next week. While there will likely (70+%
chance) be times where high pressure ridges quickly move over us
this weekend through early next week, these ridges look to be
swiftly replaced with more shortwave activity as a troughing pattern
slowly develops over the western U.S. and sends shots of shortwave
energy nearly directly at us (as seen on 250mb wind and height
plots). While a soaking rainfall is not expected from Thursday to
the end of the forecast period, we do have multiple shots at
receiving light rainfall across portions to all of the U.P. for the
latter half of the extended period. In addition, low temperatures
look to be closer to normal as the extra cloud cover will keep the
area better insulated. Meanwhile, expect high temperatures to be
fairly close to normal as well due to the same off-and-on cloud
cover.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 109 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Despite haze from upstream Canadian wildfires, VFR conditions will
prevail for the duration of the TAF period with light north to
northeast winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Light winds of generally 20 knots or less continue today into
Wednesday as a surface high pressure stubbornly sits over Lake
Superior. However, as a low pressure moves from the Northern Plains
into the Upper Great Lakes and Upper Mississippi Valley Wednesday,
expect winds to pick up from the northeast over the far western lake
to 20 to 25 knots during the afternoon. Once we move into the
overnight hours though, expect the winds to die down to 20 knots or
less again as the pressure gradient over the far western lake begins
to weaken. As the shortwave moves through the lake Thursday, expect
showers and possibly (20% chance) a few embedded thunderstorms here
and there, moving from west to east with time. As additional lows
move through the lake this weekend, expect additional shower and
thunderstorm activity, with winds remaining light at 20 knots or
less until at least the end of the weekend.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...TAP